The Kayts Polling Division is a Polling Division in the Jaffna Electoral District, in the Northern Province, Sri Lanka.

Presidential Election Results

Summary

The winner of Kayts has matched the final country result 5 out of 8 times. Hence, Kayts is a Weak Bellwether for Presidential Elections. Year Kayts Jaffna Electoral District MAEThe mean absolute error, between the percentages of votes each party got in Kayts and the Jaffna Electoral District. It is a measure of the difference in voting behaviour between the two regions. % Sri Lanka MAEThe mean absolute error, between the percentages of votes each party got in Kayts and the country. It is a measure of the difference in voting behaviour between the two regions. % 2019 NDF NDF 12.53% SLPP 29.69% 2015 NDF NDF 18.19% NDF 5.48% 2010 UPFA NDF 20.69% UPFA 6.92% 2005 UPFA UNP 30.11% UPFA 6.71% 1999 UNP PA 2.83% PA 5.45% 1994 PA PA 0.78% PA 34.43% 1988 UNP SLFP 6.88% UNP 16.43% 1982 ACTC ACTC 10.72% UNP 23.23% Matches/Mean MAE 5/8 3/8 12.84% 8/8 16.04%

2019 Sri Lankan Presidential Election

Party Kayts Jaffna Electoral District Sri Lanka Votes % Votes % Votes % NDF 11,319 69.82% 312,722 83.86% 5,564,239 41.99% SLPP 2,917 17.99% 23,261 6.24% 6,924,255 52.25% Other Parties (with < 1%) 1,370 8.45% 23,295 6.25% 717,212 5.41% DUNF 382 2.36% 6,790 1.82% 34,537 0.26% IND10 223 1.38% 6,845 1.84% 12,256 0.09% Valid Votes 16,211 97.13% 372,913 97.07% 13,252,499 98.99% Rejected Votes 479 2.87% 11,251 2.93% 135,452 1.01% Total Polled 16,690 73.68% 384,164 68.00% 13,387,951 83.71% Registered Electors 22,651 564,984 15,992,568

2015 Sri Lankan Presidential Election

Party Kayts Jaffna Electoral District Sri Lanka Votes % Votes % Votes % NDF 8,144 55.48% 253,574 74.42% 6,217,162 51.28% UPFA 5,959 40.60% 74,454 21.85% 5,768,090 47.58% Other Parties (with < 1%) 575 3.92% 12,723 3.73% 138,200 1.14% Valid Votes 14,678 96.74% 340,751 97.14% 12,123,452 98.85% Rejected Votes 495 3.26% 10,038 2.86% 140,925 1.15% Total Polled 15,173 68.79% 350,789 64.22% 12,264,377 78.69% Registered Electors 22,057 546,265 15,585,942

2010 Sri Lankan Presidential Election

Party Kayts Jaffna Electoral District Sri Lanka Votes % Votes % Votes % UPFA 4,611 46.19% 44,154 24.75% 6,015,934 57.88% NDF 3,976 39.83% 113,877 63.84% 4,173,185 40.15% Other Parties (with < 1%) 549 5.50% 9,128 5.12% 106,050 1.02% Ind 5 284 2.84% 3,205 1.80% 9,662 0.09% DUNF 283 2.83% 3,370 1.89% 39,226 0.38% UDF 144 1.44% 3,325 1.86% 23,290 0.22% JSP 136 1.36% 1,310 0.73% 26,266 0.25% Valid Votes 9,983 96.73% 178,369 96.35% 10,393,613 99.03% Rejected Votes 338 3.27% 6,763 3.65% 101,838 0.97% Total Polled 10,321 19.43% 185,132 25.15% 10,495,451 66.70% Registered Electors 53,111 736,032 15,734,587

2005 Sri Lankan Presidential Election

Party Kayts Jaffna Electoral District Sri Lanka Votes % Votes % Votes % UPFA 139 52.85% 1,967 25.00% 4,887,152 50.29% UNP 98 37.26% 5,523 70.20% 4,706,366 48.43% SEP 10 3.80% 29 0.37% 3,500 0.04% DUA 4 1.52% 31 0.39% 5,082 0.05% ULPP 3 1.14% 120 1.53% 14,458 0.15% USP 3 1.14% 72 0.92% 35,425 0.36% JSP 3 1.14% 34 0.43% 31,238 0.32% Other Parties (with < 1%) 3 1.14% 92 1.17% 33,818 0.35% Valid Votes 263 95.29% 7,868 92.30% 9,717,039 98.88% Rejected Votes 13 4.71% 656 7.70% 109,869 1.12% Total Polled 276 0.52% 8,524 1.20% 9,826,908 69.51% Registered Electors 52,986 707,970 14,136,979

1999 Sri Lankan Presidential Election

Party Kayts Jaffna Electoral District Sri Lanka Votes % Votes % Votes % UNP 3,580 47.00% 48,005 43.03% 3,602,748 42.71% PA 3,377 44.34% 52,043 46.65% 4,312,157 51.12% Other Parties (with < 1%) 314 4.12% 5,215 4.67% 452,527 5.36% LDA 154 2.02% 3,394 3.04% 23,668 0.28% Ind 2 108 1.42% 1,873 1.68% 27,052 0.32% SLMP 84 1.10% 1,041 0.93% 17,359 0.21% Valid Votes 7,617 94.79% 111,568 94.91% 8,435,754 97.69% Rejected Votes 419 5.21% 5,981 5.09% 199,536 2.31% Total Polled 8,036 15.79% 117,549 19.15% 8,635,290 72.17% Registered Electors 50,885 613,718 11,965,536

1994 Sri Lankan Presidential Election

Party Kayts Jaffna Electoral District Sri Lanka Votes % Votes % Votes % PA 14,761 97.16% 16,934 96.35% 4,709,205 62.28% Ind 2 291 1.92% 341 1.94% 58,888 0.78% Other Parties (with < 1%) 141 0.93% 300 1.71% 2,793,435 36.94% Valid Votes 15,193 99.22% 17,575 99.20% 7,561,526 98.03% Rejected Votes 120 0.78% 141 0.80% 151,706 1.97% Total Polled 15,313 30.93% 17,716 2.97% 7,713,232 69.12% Registered Electors 49,504 596,422 11,158,880

1988 Sri Lankan Presidential Election

Party Kayts Jaffna Electoral District Sri Lanka Votes % Votes % Votes % UNP 4,628 37.34% 33,650 28.03% 2,569,199 50.43% SLMP 4,503 36.33% 42,198 35.15% 235,701 4.63% SLFP 3,264 26.33% 44,197 36.82% 2,289,857 44.95% Valid Votes 12,395 95.41% 120,045 93.38% 5,094,754 98.24% Rejected Votes 596 4.59% 8,517 6.62% 91,499 1.76% Total Polled 12,991 26.25% 128,562 23.30% 5,186,256 55.87% Registered Electors 49,481 551,713 9,283,143

1982 Sri Lankan Presidential Election

Party Kayts Jaffna Electoral District Sri Lanka Votes % Votes % Votes % ACTC 8,353 51.60% 87,263 40.03% 173,934 2.67% UNP 4,067 25.13% 44,775 20.54% 3,450,815 52.93% SLFP 3,393 20.96% 77,210 35.42% 2,546,348 39.05% Other Parties (with < 1%) 374 2.31% 8,650 3.97% 348,954 5.35% Valid Votes 16,187 94.50% 218,003 95.36% 6,520,156 98.78% Rejected Votes 943 5.50% 10,610 4.64% 80,470 1.22% Total Polled 17,130 40.25% 228,613 45.86% 6,600,626 80.15% Registered Electors 42,563 498,545 8,235,358

Parliamentary Election Results

Summary

The winner of Kayts has matched the final country result 1 out of 7 times.

Year Kayts Jaffna Electoral District MAEThe mean absolute error, between the percentages of votes each party got in Kayts and the Jaffna Electoral District. It is a measure of the difference in voting behaviour between the two regions. % Sri Lanka MAEThe mean absolute error, between the percentages of votes each party got in Kayts and the country. It is a measure of the difference in voting behaviour between the two regions. % 2015 ITAK ITAK 10.33% UNP 38.98% 2010 UPFA ITAK 24.59% UPFA 15.19% 2004 ITAK ITAK 0.72% UPFA 6.11% 2001 EPDP TULF 32.61% UNP 21.22% 2000 EPDP EPDP 22.91% PA 14.96% 1994 IND2 IND2 14.71% PA 0.23% 1989 INDI INDI 10.46% UNP 27.70% Matches/Mean MAE 1/7 0/7 16.62% 7/7 17.77%

2015 Sri Lankan Parliamentary Election

Party Kayts Jaffna Electoral District Sri Lanka Votes % Votes % Votes % ITAK 7,688 58.98% 207,577 70.08% 515,963 4.63% EPDP 3,924 30.10% 30,232 10.21% 33,481 0.30% UNP 424 3.25% 20,025 6.76% 5,098,916 45.77% UPFA 421 3.23% 17,309 5.84% 4,732,664 42.48% AITC 329 2.52% 15,022 5.07% 18,644 0.17% Other Parties (with < 1%) 249 1.91% 6,034 2.04% 580,476 5.21% Valid Votes 13,035 89.79% 296,199 90.91% 11,140,333 95.35% Rejected Votes 1,389 9.57% 25,496 7.83% 516,926 4.42% Total Polled 14,518 65.82% 325,805 61.56% 11,684,111 77.66% Registered Electors 22,057 529,239 15,044,490

2010 Sri Lankan Parliamentary Election

Party Kayts Jaffna Electoral District Sri Lanka Votes % Votes % Votes % UPFA 6,441 72.12% 47,622 32.20% 4,846,388 60.38% ITAK 1,671 18.71% 65,119 44.03% 233,190 2.91% UNP 392 4.39% 12,624 8.54% 2,357,057 29.37% Other Parties (with < 1%) 323 3.62% 16,171 10.93% 496,010 6.18% AITC 104 1.16% 6,362 4.30% 7,544 0.09% Valid Votes 8,931 86.94% 147,898 87.89% 8,026,322 96.03% Rejected Votes 1,326 12.91% 19,774 11.75% 581,465 6.96% Total Polled 10,273 19.34% 168,277 22.68% 8,358,246 59.29% Registered Electors 53,111 742,005 14,097,690

2004 Sri Lankan Parliamentary Election

Party Kayts Jaffna Electoral District Sri Lanka Votes % Votes % Votes % ITAK 13,911 90.02% 257,320 90.60% 633,203 6.85% EPDP 1,406 9.10% 18,612 6.55% 24,942 0.27% Other Parties (with < 1%) 137 0.89% 8,094 2.85% 770,907 8.34% Valid Votes 15,454 92.34% 284,026 93.04% 9,241,931 94.52% Rejected Votes 1,282 7.66% 21,233 6.96% 534,452 5.47% Total Polled 16,736 32.24% 305,259 46.65% 9,777,821 75.74% Registered Electors 51,911 654,415 12,909,631

2001 Sri Lankan Parliamentary Election

Party Kayts Jaffna Electoral District Sri Lanka Votes % Votes % Votes % EPDP 15,378 74.71% 57,208 30.66% 72,783 0.81% TULF 4,304 20.91% 102,324 54.84% 348,164 3.89% UNP 764 3.71% 16,245 8.71% 4,086,026 45.62% Other Parties (with < 1%) 138 0.67% 10,821 5.80% 1,052,503 11.75% Valid Votes 20,584 96.36% 186,598 94.59% 8,955,844 94.77% Rejected Votes 777 3.64% 10,681 5.41% 494,009 5.23% Total Polled 21,361 41.83% 197,279 31.14% 9,449,878 76.03% Registered Electors 51,072 633,457 12,428,762

2000 Sri Lankan Parliamentary Election

Party Kayts Jaffna Electoral District Sri Lanka Votes % Votes % Votes % EPDP 12,311 79.68% 41,536 36.13% 50,702 0.59% TULF 1,327 8.59% 32,761 28.50% 105,907 1.23% UNP 820 5.31% 10,896 9.48% 3,451,765 40.12% Other Parties (with < 1%) 329 2.13% 12,197 10.61% 924,064 10.74% IG6 275 1.78% 2,058 1.79% 3,162 0.04% IG2 223 1.44% 4,905 4.27% 31,443 0.37% ACTC 166 1.07% 10,618 9.24% 27,289 0.32% Valid Votes 15,451 N/A 114,971 N/A 8,602,617 N/A

1994 Sri Lankan Parliamentary Election

Party Kayts Jaffna Electoral District Sri Lanka Votes % Votes % Votes % IND2 9,944 95.19% 10,744 79.71% 16,690 0.21% EPRLF 232 2.22% 263 1.95% 9,411 0.12% IND1 214 2.05% 374 2.77% 48,199 0.61% Other Parties (with < 1%) 56 0.54% 2,098 15.56% 143,307 1.80% Valid Votes 10,446 97.19% 13,479 97.41% 7,943,688 95.20% Rejected Votes 302 2.81% 358 2.59% 400,395 4.80% Total Polled 10,748 21.71% 13,837 2.32% 8,344,095 74.75% Registered Electors 49,504 596,375 11,163,064

1989 Sri Lankan Parliamentary Election

Party Kayts Jaffna Electoral District Sri Lanka Votes % Votes % Votes % INDI 17,108 75.71% 150,340 62.68% 175,579 3.14% TULF 3,706 16.40% 60,013 25.02% 188,594 3.37% DPLF 572 2.53% 7,993 3.33% 19,150 0.34% SLMC 466 2.06% 8,439 3.52% 202,016 3.61% ACTC 391 1.73% 7,610 3.17% 7,610 0.14% UNP 354 1.57% 5,460 2.28% 2,838,005 50.71% Valid Votes 22,597 89.76% 239,855 90.49% 5,596,468 93.87% Rejected Votes 2,577 10.24% 25,203 9.51% 365,563 6.13% Total Polled 25,174 50.96% 265,058 44.76% 5,962,031 63.60% Registered Electors 49,401 592,210 9,374,164

Demographics

Ethnicity

The Kayts Polling Division has a Sri Lankan Tamil majority (98.5%) . In comparison, the Jaffna Electoral District (which contains the Kayts Polling Division) has a Sri Lankan Tamil majority (98.6%)

Religion

The Kayts Polling Division has a Hindu majority (71.4%) and a significant Roman Catholic population (24.5%) . In comparison, the Jaffna Electoral District (which contains the Kayts Polling Division) has a Hindu majority (82.6%) and a significant Roman Catholic population (12.6%)

References