2021 Berlin state election

The 2021 Berlin state election, ruled invalid in 2022 and repeated in 2023, was held on 26 September 2021, on the same day as the 2021 German federal election, which also had to be repeated in parts of Berlin due to irregularities. Thus, the 19th Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin was elected twice.

The incumbent government was a red-red-green coalition of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), The Left, and The Greens led by Governing Mayor Michael Müller. Müller did not run for re-election as Mayor, and former federal minister Franziska Giffey led the SPD in the election. The Berlin expropriation referendum was held on the same day, as well as the Borough council elections who function as the municipal elections of Berlin.

The SPD remained the largest party with 21.4% of votes cast, recording minimal change compared to 2016. The Greens narrowly surpassed the opposition Christian Democratic Union (CDU) to become the second largest party with 19% of the vote. The Left recorded a small decline to 14%, while the Alternative for Germany (AfD) lost almost half its vote share and finished on 8%. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) remained the smallest party in the Abgeordnetenhaus with 7%.

Post-election, SPD's Giffey and Bettina Jarasch of the Greens both spoke out in favour of a coalition involving their parties. They ultimately renewed the outgoing government with The Left. Franziska Giffey was elected as Governing Mayor on 21 December and her cabinet was sworn in the same day.

Due to numerous irregularities that took place during the election, the Constitutional Court of the State of Berlin annulled the results in November 2022. As a result, repeat elections were scheduled for the next year.

Election date The last election took place on 18 September 2016. The Abgeordnetenhaus has a term of five years, so the next regular elections must take place no later than September 2021. Federal Minister of the Interior Horst Seehofer recommended that the election take place on the same date as the 2021 German federal election, which took place on 26 September 2021.

Electoral system The Abgeordnetenhaus is elected via mixed-member proportional representation. 78 members are elected in single-member constituencies via first-past-the-post voting. 52 members are then allocated using compensatory proportional representation, distributed in each of Berlin's twelve boroughs. German voters have two votes: the "first vote" for candidates in single-member constituencies, and the "second vote" for party lists, which are used to fill the proportional seats. The minimum size of the Abgeordnetenhaus is 130 members, but if overhang seats are present, proportional leveling seats will be added to ensure proportionality. An electoral threshold of 5% of valid votes is applied to the Abgeordnetenhaus; parties that fall below this threshold are excluded from the Abgeordnetenhaus. However, parties which win at least one single-member constituency are exempt from the threshold and will be allocated seats proportionally, even if they fall below 5%.

Background

In the previous election held on 13 March 2016, the SPD remained the largest party with 21.6% of the vote, a loss of 6.7 percentage points. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) was the second largest party with 17.6%, a loss of 5.7 points. The Left overtook The Greens to become the third largest party on 15.6%, while The Greens won 15.2%. Alternative for Germany (AfD) contested their first election in Berlin, winning 14.2%. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) re-entered the Abgeordnetenhaus with 6.7%.

The SPD had led a coalition with the CDU since 2011, but this government lost its majority in the election. The SPD subsequently formed a coalition with The Left and The Greens.

Parties The table below lists parties currently represented in the 18th Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin. Name Ideology Leadcandidate Leader(s) 2016 result Votes (%) Seats SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany Social democracy Franziska Giffey Franziska GiffeyRaed Saleh 21.6% CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany Christian democracy Kai Wegner Kai Wegner 17.6% Linke The Left Democratic socialism Klaus Lederer Katina Schubert 15.6% Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens Green politics Bettina Jarasch Nina StahrWerner Graf 15.2% AfD Alternative for Germany Right-wing populism Kristin Brinker Kristin Brinker 14.2% FDP Free Democratic Party Classical liberalism Sebastian Czaja Christoph Meyer 6.7%

Campaign Lead candidates On 5 October 2020, the Greens nominated Bettina Jarasch, spokeswoman for integration and refugees, as their lead candidate for the election. She previously served as chairwoman of the state party from 2011 to 2016. She was formally elected as lead candidate on 12 December.

On 9 October, state CDU leader Kai Wegner was selected as his party's lead candidate.

Prior to the election, incumbent mayor Michael Müller voiced his desire to move into federal politics rather than seek another term. On 30 November 2020, the state party executive nominated Federal Minister for Family Affairs, Senior Citizens, Women and Youth Franziska Giffey as lead candidate for the election. She was simultaneously elected co-leader of the Berlin branch of the party alongside parliamentary group leader Raed Saleh.

On 8 December, The Left nominated incumbent Deputy Mayor and Senator for Culture Klaus Lederer as its lead candidate for the election. Lederer is noted as one of the most popular politicians in Berlin, achieving consistently high approval ratings.

On 27 March 2021, the FDP elected parliamentary group leader Sebastian Czaja as their lead candidate for the election.

Opinion polling Graphical summary

Party polling Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize SPD CDU Linke Grüne AfD FDP Others Lead 2021 state election 26 Sep 2021 – 21.4 18.0 14.1 18.9 8.0 7.1 12.5 2.5 INSA 22–24 Sep 2021 1,000 23 15 14 17 11 8 12 6 Wahlkreisprognose 22–23 Sep 2021 1,040 25 15.5 14.5 15.5 10.5 7.5 12 9.5 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 20–22 Sep 2021 1,103 22 17 13 19 9 7 13 3 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 13–16 Sep 2021 1,000 21 17 12 20 9 8 13 1 Infratest dimap 13–15 Sep 2021 1,510 24 16 13 18 10 7 12 6 Wahlkreisprognose 9–14 Sep 2021 1,553 25 14.5 14.5 14.5 10.5 8.5 12.5 10.5 Wahlkreisprognose 23–24 Aug 2021 1,050 24.5 15 15 15.5 11 9.5 9.5 9 Infratest dimap 18–21 Aug 2021 1,160 23 19 12 17 11 8 10 4 INSA 16–23 Aug 2021 1,000 22 16 15 18 12 9 8 4 Forsa 5–10 Aug 2021 2,007 21 17 14 21 10 7 10 Tie Wahlkreisprognose 24–31 Jul 2021 2,420 24 18 15 15.5 9 9 9.5 6 Wahlkreisprognose 29 Jun–6 Jul 2021 2,950 21 20 14 16 9.5 10.5 9.5 1 INSA 16–22 Jun 2021 1,000 18 18 13 22 12 10 7 3 Infratest dimap 9–14 Jun 2021 1,198 17 21 12 22 10 9 9 1 Wahlkreisprognose 3–10 Jun 2021 1,553 20.5 18 13 16 8.5 12.5 11.5 2.5 INSA 11–17 May 2021 1,000 20 16 13 25 12 9 5 5 Infratest dimap 20–24 Apr 2021 ? 17 18 14 27 9 7 8 9 INSA 12–20 Apr 2021 1,024 19 16 14 25 12 10 4 6 Infratest dimap 16–20 Feb 2021 1,007 18 22 15 23 9 6 7 1 INSA 11–18 Dec 2020 1,002 18 22 16 18 12 7 7 4 INSA 28 Sep–5 Oct 2020 1,007 18 21 16 20 12 6 7 1 Infratest dimap 15–19 Sep 2020 1,001 15 22 15 26 10 6 6 4 INSA 7–13 Jul 2020 1,012 16 21 18 19 12 5 9 2 Infratest dimap 22–25 Apr 2020 1,002 20 23 14 21 10 5 7 2 Forsa 29 Jan–6 Feb 2020 1,011 15 16 17 25 11 6 10 8 INSA 10–18 Dec 2019 1,006 15 18 19 23 13 7 5 4 Forsa 12–19 Dec 2019 1,005 15 17 19 22 11 6 10 3 Forsa 21–28 Nov 2019 1,006 16 17 17 25 11 5 10 8 Infratest dimap 11–16 Nov 2019 1,003 16 18 17 23 14 5 7 5 Forsa 22–31 Oct 2019 1,002 15 18 16 25 11 5 10 7 Forsa 17–26 Sep 2019 1,002 16 17 16 24 11 6 10 7 INSA 10–16 Sep 2019 1,018 15 17 18 24 14 6 6 6 Forsa 20–29 Aug 2019 1,003 16 16 17 24 11 6 10 7 Forsa 17–25 Jul 2019 1,001 16 17 18 25 10 5 9 7 Forsa 17–27 Jun 2019 1,004 15 17 17 25 10 7 9 8 Forsa 20–27 May 2019 1,006 16 15 17 26 11 7 8 9 Infratest dimap 30 Apr–3 May 2019 1,000 15 17 19 23 10 6 10 4 Forsa 16–25 Apr 2019 1,005 16 17 18 25 11 7 6 7 INSA 5–8 Apr 2019 1,030 16 19 19 19 12 9 6 Tie INSA 19–28 Mar 2019 1,003 15 18 18 25 10 8 6 7 Forsa 20–28 Feb 2019 1,001 17 20 18 22 11 7 5 2 Forsa 22–31 Jan 2019 1,002 16 19 20 21 11 8 5 1 Forsa 11–19 Dec 2018 1,009 15 17 18 23 13 7 7 5 INSA 10–17 Dec 2018 1,007 16 18 16 21 14 8 7 3 Forsa 19–29 Nov 2018 1,003 15 18 18 23 13 7 6 5 Infratest dimap 14–17 Nov 2018 1,002 15 18 18 24 13 6 6 6 INSA 23 Oct–2 Nov 2018 1,019 16 16 17 22 15 7 7 5 Forsa October 2018 1,005 15 16 19 22 13 8 7 3 Forsa 19–27 Sep 2018 1,005 16 17 22 18 13 7 7 4 Forsa 21–30 Aug 2018 1,004 17 19 21 18 12 6 7 2 Forsa 16–26 Jul 2018 1,009 17 19 21 17 13 7 6 2 INSA 9–16 Jul 2018 1,012 17 18 17 18 14 7 9 Tie Forsa 20–28 Jun 2018 1,009 19 18 21 16 11 8 7 2 Forsa 22–31 May 2018 1,004 18 19 20 18 11 7 7 1 Infratest dimap 9–12 May 2018 1,000 18 21 22 15 11 6 7 1 Forsa 17–26 Apr 2018 1,001 19 19 19 18 11 7 7 Tie INSA 3–9 Apr 2018 1,039 19 19 19 17 13 8 5 Tie Forsa 19–28 Mar 2018 1,003 20 20 18 17 12 7 6 Tie Forsa 12–22 Feb 2018 1,006 19 19 20 18 12 6 6 1 Forsa 15–25 Jan 2018 1,008 20 19 18 17 11 7 8 1 Forsa 12–21 Dec 2017 1,002 20 20 18 17 11 6 8 Tie Forsa 13–23 Nov 2017 1,002 18 21 18 16 11 8 8 3 Forsa 17–26 Oct 2017 1,011 19 20 18 14 11 9 9 1 Forsa 26 Sep–5 Oct 2017 1,002 18 19 19 15 11 9 9 Tie Infratest dimap 6–9 Sep 2017 1,000 21 23 19 14 10 7 6 2 Forsa 22–30 Aug 2017 1,005 19 21 17 14 9 11 9 2 Forsa 18–27 Jul 2017 1,007 20 22 18 14 8 9 9 2 Forsa 22–29 Jun 2017 1,003 21 22 17 14 8 9 9 1 Forsa 16–24 May 2017 1,001 22 23 16 13 8 8 10 1 Infratest dimap 17–20 May 2017 1,000 22 24 17 13 10 8 6 2 Forsa 19–27 Apr 2017 1,002 24 20 16 12 9 8 11 4 Forsa 20–30 Mar 2017 1,005 25 20 16 13 8 7 11 5 Forsa 13–23 Mar 2017 1,004 25 17 16 13 10 8 11 8 Forsa 16–26 Jan 2017 1,008 20 20 16 15 12 8 9 Tie Forsa 12–23 Dec 2016 1,003 20 20 17 16 12 7 8 Tie Forsa 14–24 Nov 2017 1,001 19 20 16 17 13 7 8 1 Infratest dimap 21–23 Nov 2016 1,003 21 19 17 15 13 7 8 2 Forsa 19–27 Oct 2016 1,002 20 18 16 16 13 7 10 2 2016 state election 18 Sep 2016 – 21.6 17.6 15.6 15.2 14.2 6.7 7.4 4.0 West Berlin Polling firmFieldwork dateSample sizeSPDCDUGrüneLinkeFDPAfDOthersLead 2021 state election 12 Feb 2021– 22.9 20.8 20.3 10.1 7.9 6.3 11.7 2.1 Infratest dimap 25.08.2021 – 25 21 19 9 9 9 8 4 Infratest dimap 16.06.2021 – 19 23 24 7 10 8 9 1 Infratest dimap 28.04.2021 – 18 21 28 10 8 8 7 7 Infratest dimap 24.02.2021 – 19 25 24 10 8 8 6 1 Infratest dimap23.09.2020 – 14 25 30 10 8 8 5 5 Infratest dimap29.04.2020 – 20 25 23 11 6 8 7 2 Infratest dimap20.11.2019 – 18 20 26 12 5 12 7 6 Infratest dimap08.05.2019 – 17 20 27 13 6 8 9 7 Infratest dimap21.11.2018 – 15 21 27 12 8 11 6 6 Infratest dimap16.05.2018 – 20 23 18 16 7 10 6 3 Infratest dimap12.09.2017 – 23 25 15 13 8 10 6 2 Infratest dimap23.05.2017 – 23 24 15 13 10 10 5 1 Infratest dimap24.11.2016 – 23 22 17 11 8 12 7 1

East Berlin Polling firmFieldwork dateSample sizeSPDLinkeGrüneCDUAfDFDPOthersLead 2021 state election12 Feb 2021–19.4 19.417.014.310.36.113.5 0.0Infratest dimap25.08.2021– 2117141515612 4Infratest dimap16.06.2021–14 19 19181389 TieInfratest dimap28.04.2021–1519 26141268 7Infratest dimap24.02.2021–15 2221181158 1Infratest dimap23.09.2020–15 2320181257 3Infratest dimap29.04.2020–191918 201338 1Infratest dimap20.11.2019–14 2418161657 6Infratest dimap08.05.2019–13 28161413511 12Infratest dimap21.11.2018–15 2720121547 7Infratest dimap16.05.2018–16 2911181457 11Infratest dimap12.09.2017–19 2613211146 7Infratest dimap23.05.2017–222210 231067 1Infratest dimap24.11.2016–19 25121415510 6 2016 state election 18 Sep 2016–19.3 23.4 12.6 13.1 17.0 4.0 10.7 4.1

Results

SPD CDU/CSU Linke Grüne FDP AfD Others West Berlin22.9 20.8 10.1 20.3 7.9 6.3 11.3 East Berlin 19.4 14.319.4 16.9 6.1 10.4 13.5

By constituency