A regional election was held in Extremadura on 28 May 2023 to elect the 11th Assembly of the autonomous community. All 65 seats in the Assembly were up for election. It was held concurrently with regional elections in eleven other autonomous communities and local elections all across Spain.
The Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), which had ruled Extremadura since 2015—and previously from 1982 to 2011—lost its absolute majority, tying with the opposition People's Party (PP) under María Guardiola with 28 seats each. The entry of the far-right Vox party with 5 seats, coupled with the left-wing United for Extremadura (UxE) alliance remaining stagnant at 4 seats, meant that the right-wing parties commanded a majority in the Assembly, which initially prompted President Guillermo Fernández Vara to concede on election night. However, following Guardiola's initial rejection to form a coalition government with Vox, Vara reneged on his renounce and pledged to attempt to form a government of his own by virtue of leading the most-voted party.
Following several weeks of public fighting—which led to PSOE and UxE retaining control of the Assembly's bureau and saw Guardiola herself proclaim that she could not allow into her government "those who deny gender-based violence, who use bold strokes, dehumanize immigrants and display a banner on which they throw the LGTBI flag into a trash can", in reference to Vox—Guardiola U-turned and accepted to include Vox in her cabinet in exchange for the latter to elect her as new regional president, thus forming the second PP-led government in the history of the region. This political episode was said as having had an impact in the outcome of the 2023 Spanish general election held on 23 July, as it evidenced the PP's willingness to allow the far-right into government despite initial pledges to the contrary.
Overview Under the 2011 Statute of Autonomy, the Assembly of Extremadura was the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to grant or withdraw confidence from a regional president.. The electoral and procedural rules were supplemented by national law provisions..
Date The term of the Assembly of Extremadura expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than 25 days before the scheduled expiration date of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Journal of Extremadura (DOE), with election day taking place 54 days after the decree's publication.; ( by ). The previous election was held on 26 May 2019, which meant that the chamber's term would have expired on 26 May 2023. The election decree was required to be published in the DOE no later than 2 May 2023, setting the latest possible date for election day on 25 June 2023.
The regional president had the prerogative to dissolve the Assembly of Extremadura at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year after a previous one.; . In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Assembly was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called..
The election to the Assembly of Extremadura was officially called on 4 April 2023 with the publication of the corresponding decree in the DOE, setting election day for 28 May..
Electoral system Voting for the Assembly was based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Extremadura and with full political rights, provided that they had not been deprived of the right to vote by a final sentence.; ( by ). Amendments in 2022 abolished the "begged" voting system (), under which non-resident citizens were required to apply for voting. The begged vote system was attributed responsibility for a major decrease in the turnout of Spaniards abroad during the years it was in force.
The Assembly of Extremadura had a maximum of 65 seats, with electoral provisions fixing its size at that number. All were elected in two multi-member constituencies—corresponding to the provinces of Badajoz and Cáceres, each of which was assigned an initial minimum of 20 seats and the remaining 25 distributed in proportion to population—using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a five percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) in each constituency. Alternatively, parties could also enter the seat distribution as long as they ran candidates in both constituencies and reached five percent regionally.; .
As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Assembly constituency was entitled the following seats:.
Seats Constituencies 36 Badajoz 29 Cáceres
The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term were filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes. ( by ).
Outgoing parliament The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of the election call.
+ Parliamentary composition in April 2023 Groups Parties Legislators Seats Total Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 34 34 People's Parliamentary Group PP 20 20 Citizens–Party of the CitizenryParliamentary Group CS 7 7 United for ExtremaduraParliamentary Group Podemos 2 4 IU 1 eX 1
Parties and candidates The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within 10 days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least two percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list. ( by ). Additionally, a balanced composition of men and women was required in the electoral lists, so that candidates of either sex made up at least 40 percent of the total composition..
Below is a list of the main parties and alliances which contested the election:
Candidacy Parties andalliances Candidate Ideology Previous result Vote % Seats PSOE Guillermo Fernández Vara Social democracy 46.8% PP María Guardiola ConservatismChristian democracy 27.5% CS Fernando Baselga Liberalism 11.1% Podemos–IU–AV Irene de Miguel Left-wing populismDirect democracyDemocratic socialism 7.2% Vox Ángel Pelayo Gordillo Right-wing populismUltranationalismNational conservatism 4.7%
Campaign Debates The only campaign debate was held on May 17 and had the participation of candidates from ten parties, an unusually high number. The PSOE candidate, and current president, Guillermo Fernández Vara, would have refused to participate in a debate that had not include all parties. The People's Party accused him of wanting to "hide" in such a large crowd. The chosen date was also criticized for coinciding with the semifinal of the UEFA Champions League, in which Real Madrid participated, which could reduce the audience for the debate.
+ 2023 Extremaduran regional election debates Date Organizer(s) Moderator(s) PSOE PP CS UxE Vox L PUM+J JUEx PEx UED Audience 17 May Canal Extremadura Manu Pérez 8.6%
Opinion polls The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
Graphical summary
Voting intention estimates The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 33 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Extremadura.
Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout L Lead 2023 regional election 28 May 2023 70.4 39.9 38.8 0.9 6.0 8.1 – 2.5 0.8 1.1 NC Report/La Razón 22 May 2023?? 43.2 35.7 – 6.1 7.1 – 4.4 – 7.5 KeyData/Público 17 May 2023? 71.2 41.8 36.3 1.6 6.7 8.5 – – – 5.5 EM-Analytics/El Plural 11–17 May 2023 600? 43.3 35.7 1.8 6.8 9.4 – 2.2 – 7.6 Data10/Okdiario 12–15 May 2023 1,500? 42.2 37.8 1.7 6.3 8.8 – – – 4.4 SocioMétrica/El Español 8–14 May 2023?? 41.8 37.2 2.3 6.4 8.8 – – – 4.6 EM-Analytics/El Plural 4–10 May 2023 600? 43.0 35.9 1.8 6.8 9.4 – 2.2 – 7.1 GAD3/ABC 28 Apr–3 May 2023 1,004? 40.3 37.4 1.6 6.8 8.6 – – – 2.9 EM-Analytics/El Plural 26 Apr–3 May 2023 600? 42.8 36.0 1.8 6.9 9.4 – 2.2 – 6.8 Ágora Integral/El Periódico 27 Apr–2 May 2023 1,200? 42.8 36.5 0.5 6.2 7.3 – 4.8 – 6.3 CIS 10–26 Apr 2023 743? 40.6 35.9 1.5 10.3 8.6 – – – 4.7 EM-Analytics/El Plural 19–25 Apr 2023 600? 42.8 35.7 1.9 6.7 9.4 – 2.4 – 7.1 Simple Lógica/elDiario.es 12–19 Apr 2023 600? 39.4 34.2 2.5 7.4 9.0 – 3.3 2.2 5.2 EM-Analytics/El Plural 12–18 Apr 2023 600? 42.9 35.3 2.1 6.4 9.8 – 2.4 – 7.6 Data10/Okdiario 11–14 Apr 2023 1,500? 42.8 37.5 2.1 5.9 8.1 – – – 5.3 IMOP/El Confidencial 10–13 Apr 2023 822 70 42.4 33.6 2.5 6.8 10.5 – – – 8.8 EM-Analytics/El Plural 5–11 Apr 2023 600? 43.8 33.8 1.9 5.9 10.9 – 2.6 – 10.0 Celeste-Tel/PSOE 27 Mar–11 Apr 2023 1,500?????? – – –? SocioMétrica/El Español 3–7 Apr 2023 1,200? 41.2 37.7 2.0 6.6 8.9 – – – 3.5 EM-Analytics/El Plural 27 Mar–4 Apr 2023 600? 43.7 33.8 1.8 5.8 10.7 – 2.9 – 9.9 NC Report/La Razón 10–17 Mar 2023? 71.0 43.5 37.3 – 6.6 6.9 – – – 6.2 KeyData/Público 15 Mar 2023? 73.0 42.2 35.9 2.8 6.5 7.2 – – – 6.3 Data10/Okdiario 13–15 Feb 2023 1,500? 42.4 37.7 2.2 6.1 7.8 – – – 4.7 Sigma Dos/El Mundo 30 Nov–5 Dec 2022 900? 41.2 35.4 4.5 7.6 6.9 – – – 5.8 CIS 17 Nov–2 Dec 2022 242? 36.9 41.4 1.0 7.3 4.4 – – – 4.5 EM-Analytics/Electomanía 1 Oct–13 Nov 2022 303? 43.3 31.5 1.5 5.4 13.5 – 3.6 – 11.8 GAD3/PP 26–31 Oct 2022 802? 41.9 37.5 2.5 5.5 6.7 – – – 4.4 Celeste-Tel/PSOE 21 Sep–10 Oct 2022 1,800 72.6 45.2 33.5 4.3 6.6 7.8 0.9 – – 11.7 EM-Analytics/Electomanía 30 Mar 2021 400? 45.4 31.9 3.5 5.5 11.4 – – – 13.5 SyM Consulting 12–14 Mar 2021 1,437 71.3 51.4 28.4 2.7 4.9 9.2 – – – 23.0 ElectoPanel/Electomanía 1 Apr–15 May 2020?? 46.8 31.6 6.1 7.3 5.4 – – – 15.2 SyM Consulting 7–9 May 2020 1,496 71.8 44.9 28.2 7.8 7.0 9.5 – – – 16.7 November 2019 general election 10 Nov 2019 67.2 38.3 26.0 7.6 9.1 16.8 – – – 12.3 2019 regional election 26 May 2019 69.3 46.8 27.5 11.1 7.2 4.7 – – – 19.3
Voting preferences The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Lead 2023 regional election 28 May 2023 28.2 27.5 0.6 4.2 5.7 27.5 0.7 CIS 10–26 Apr 2023 743 29.1 24.7 0.7 6.7 5.8 27.0 3.0 4.4 CIS 17 Nov–2 Dec 2022 242 20.9 26.7 0.4 4.4 2.6 29.4 6.9 5.8 November 2019 general election 10 Nov 2019 26.0 17.7 5.1 6.2 11.4 30.9 8.3 2019 regional election 26 May 2019 32.9 19.4 7.8 5.1 3.3 28.7 13.5
Predicted President The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood for each leader to become president of the Regional Government of Extremadura.