The Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team is a group of experts from Imperial College London studying the COVID-19 pandemic and informing the government of the United Kingdom, and governments and public health agencies around the world. The team comprises scientists from the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, the Jameel Institute, the Imperial College Business School and the Department of Mathematics. The Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team is led by Professor Neil Ferguson, Director of the Jameel Institute and MRC GIDA.
On 16 March 2020 the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team produced a research forecast of various scenarios for spread of the disease in the United Kingdom and the United States. Without any mitigation their forecast showed local health care capabilities vastly overwhelmed by the epidemic wave. Periodic cycles of quarantine followed by softer social distancing were recommended, with quarantines in effect two-thirds of the time. On 30 March, a study on 11 European countries was published. It provided estimates of the situation as of 28 March (observed and modelised with CovidSim), and projections for 31 March given current expectations, no action, and the difference. It also provided a list of government policies and their respective absolute dates. As of 2 May 2021, the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team has produced 43 reports.
Reports COVID-19 reportsRankDate Title 43 2021-03-24 Quantifying the impact of vaccine hesitancy in prolonging the need for Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions to control the COVID-19 pandemic 42 2020-12-31 Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Lineage B.1.1.7 in England: insights from linking epidemiological and genetic data 41 2020-12-22 The 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England: key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions 40 2020-12-10 Optimal scheduling rules for elective care to minimize years of life lost during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: an application to England 39 2020-12-01 Characterising COVID-19 epidemic dynamics and mortality under-ascertainment in Khartoum, Sudan 38 2020-11-27 SARS-CoV-2 setting-specific transmission rates: a systematic review and meta-analysis 37 2020-11-25 Children’s role in the COVID-19 pandemic: as systematic review of susceptibility, severity, and transmissibility 36 2020-11-16 Modelling ICU capacity under different epidemiological scenarios of the COVID-19 pandemic in three western European countries 35 2020-11-16 How can we keep schools and universities open? Differentiating closures by economic sector to optimize social and economic activity while containing SARS-CoV-2 transmission 34 2020-10-29 Infection Fatality Ratio Estimates from Seroprevalence 33 2020-09-25 Modelling the allocation and impact of a COVID-19 vaccine 32 2020-09-17 Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States 31 2020-09-15 Estimating under-ascertainment of COVID-19 mortality: an analysis of novel data sources to provide insight into COVID-19 dynamics in Damascus, Syria 30 2020-07-03 The COVID-19 epidemic trends and control measures in mainland China 29 2020-07-01 The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on all-cause attendances to emergency departments in two large London hospitals: an observational study 28 2020-06-18 "Excess non-COVID-19 deaths in England and Wales between 29th February and 5th June 2020" 27 2020-06-15 Adapting hospital capacity to meet changing demands during the COVID-19 pandemic 26 2020-06-08 Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission 25 2020-05-29 Response to COVID-19 in South Korea and implications for lifting stringent interventions 24 2020-05-29 Anonymised & aggregated crowd level mobility data from mobile phones suggests initial compliance with COVID19 social distancing interventions was high & geographically consistent across UK 23 2020-05-21 State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States 22 2020-05-12 Equity in response to the COVID-19 pandemic: an assessment of the direct and indirect impacts on disadvantaged and vulnerable populations in low- and lower middle-income countries 21 2020-05-08 Estimating COVID-19 cases and reproduction number in Brazil 20 2020-05-04Using mobility to estimate the transmission intensity of COVID-19 in Italy: A subnational analysis with future scenarios 19 2020-05-01 The Potential Impact of the COVID-19 Epidemic on HIV, TB and Malaria in Low- and Middle-Income Countries 18 2020-05-01 The potential public health impact of COVID-19 on malaria in Africa 17 2020-04-29 Clinical characteristics and predictors of outcomes of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 in a London NHS Trust: a retrospective cohort study 16 2020-04-23 Role of testing in COVID-19 control The report estimates COVID-19 testing's impact as reducing transmission by 25~33% from populations tested, but also allowing early release from quarantines and creation of Immunity passport based on antibody tests. Tests face technical, legal, and ethical challenges. Tests while helping are complementary to other more potent actions such as self-isolation when symptoms arises, contact tracing and quarantines. 15 2020-04-17 Strengthening hospital capacity for the COVID-19 pandemic Reports presents the Jameel Institute pandemic planner "a hospital planning tool to calculate how much capacity in terms of beds, staff and ventilators is obtained by implementing healthcare provision interventions affecting the management of patient care in hospitals".142020-04-03Online Community Involvement in COVID-19 Research & Outbreak Response: Early Insights from a UK Perspective132020-03-30Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries122020-03-26The global impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression112020-03-24Evidence of initial success for China exiting COVID-19 social distancing policy after achieving containment102020-03-20Public response to UK Government recommendations on COVID-19: population survey, 17–18 March 2020 9 2020-03-16Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand This report made an informed estimate of impact for both UK and the US, according to different strategies. The dire impact expressed helped convert the Johnson government from laisser-faire to mitigative strategies.82020-03-11Symptom progression of COVID-1972020-03-09Estimating infection prevalence in Wuhan City from repatriation flights62020-02-21Relative sensitivity of international surveillance52020-02-15Phylogenetic analysis of SARS-CoV-242020-02-10Severity of 2019 novel coronavirus (nCoV)32020-01-25Transmissibility of 2019-nCoV22020-01-22Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases in Wuhan City, China12020-01-17Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases in Wuhan City, China
Estimates 11 European countries estimates on 28 March 2020 Population infected by countryICCRT's model projection for 28 MarchWHO lab-confirmed 29 March Country Infected (95% range) Infected (mean %)Cases (est.) Cases Detected (% of pop.) Austria 0.36%–3.1% 1.1% 8291 % Belgium 1.3%–9.7% 3.7% 9134 % Denmark 0.40%–3.1% 1.1% 2201 % France 1.1%–7.4% 3.0% 37145 % Germany 0.28%–1.8% 0.72% 52547 % Italy 3.2%–26% 9.8% 92472 % Norway 0.09%–1.2% 0.41% 3845 % Spain 3.7%–41% 15% 72248 % Sweden 0.85%–8.4% 3.1% 3447 % Switzerland 1.3%–7.6% 3.2% 13152 % United Kingdom 1.2%–5.4% 2.7% 17093 %Note: WHO reporting laboratory-confirmed cases on 29 March, 10am Central European Time.
World estimates for 3 strategies Estimated impact of suppression strategies over 250 days for 3 different strategies. Unmitigated Scenario Suppression at 0.2 deaths/100,000/week Suppression at 1.6 deaths/100,000/week Infections Deaths Infections Deaths Infections Deaths East Asia & Pacific 2,117,131,000 15,303,000 92,544,000 442,000 632,619,000 3,315,000 Europe & Central Asia 801,770,000 7,276,000 61,578,000 279,000 257,706,000 1,397,000 Latin America & Caribbean 566,993,000 3,194,000 45,346,000 158,000 186,595,000 729,000 Middle East & North Africa 419,138,000 1,700,000 30,459,000 113,000 152,262,000 594,000 North America 326,079,000 2,981,000 17,730,000 92,000 90,529,000 520,000 South Asia 1,737,766,000 7,687,000 111,703,000 475,000 629,164,000 2,693,000 Sub-Saharan Africa 1,044,858,000 2,483,000 110,164,000 298,000 454,968,000 1,204,000 Total 7,013,734,000 40,624,000 469,523,000 1,858,000 2,403,843,000 10,452,000
See also Non-pharmaceutical intervention (epidemiology) Jameel Institute
References
External links COVID-19 Response Team Reports Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA)