The COVID-19 pandemic in the Bailiwick of Guernsey was a part of the worldwide pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 () caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (). The Bailiwick has been successful in limiting and preventing the spread of the virus through a rigorous system of testing, tracing and isolating suspected and confirmed cases and requiring arrivals to self-isolate for 14 (or in some cases only 7) days. The States of Guernsey co-ordinates the pandemic response which has been praised for its transparency and clarity and held up as an exemplar of good communication.
Initially, the objective was to "flatten the curve", which refers to slowing the infection rate to decrease the risk of health services being overwhelmed and allow for the better management of cases until a vaccine or specific antiviral treatment was available. In early February 2020, preventative measures were recommended including hand washing, good respiratory hygiene, social distancing and avoiding non-essential travel. The Bailiwick's first case was identified on 9 March 2020 in Guernsey. Soon after, emergency legislation was enacted and arrivals were ordered to self-isolate. On 25 March 2020, following the first known instance of on-island transmission, a lockdown order was imposed. By late April 2020, the Bailiwick entered a six-stage phased release from lockdown and, by mid-May 2020, the States sought elimination of the virus. From late June 2020 to January 2021, life within the Bailiwick effectively returned to normal with no restrictions on gatherings and no requirements for people to socially distance or use face coverings.
On 23 January 2021, a second lockdown was imposed following the identification of four unexplained cases in the community, which resulted in a second wave of community-seeded infections, greater in volume than the first.
The pandemic and the measures taken to contain its spread have caused socio-economic disruption in the Bailiwick, including an initial economic downturn compared to that seen during the 2008 financial crisis, triggering the COVID-19 recession. It resulted in the postponement or cancellation of cultural, political and sporting events including the island's annual Liberation Day celebrations and its first island-wide election, and temporary closures of schools and colleges. During lockdown restrictions, initial fears of supply shortages resulted in panic buying and concerns were raised over worsening mental health and an increase in domestic abuse. Measures were implemented by the States to mitigate the various wider impacts of the pandemic.
Background and preparations On 31 December 2019, China reported a cluster of pneumonia cases in its city of Wuhan. On 7 January 2020, the Chinese health authorities confirmed that this cluster was caused by a novel infectious disease. The World Health Organization (WHO) issued technical briefings on 10 and 11 January, warning about a strong possibility of human-to-human transmission and urging precautions. On 20 January, the WHO and China confirmed that human-to-human transmission had occurred.
By March 2020, more than 170 countries and territories had been affected, with major outbreaks in China, Italy, South Korea and Iran. On 11 March 2020 the WHO characterised the spread of COVID-19 as a pandemic. The case fatality ratio for COVID-19 was lower than SARS of 2003, but the transmission was significantly greater, with a significant total death toll.
Previously, in November 2019, the States had successfully conducted an exercise of the Channel Islands Strategic Pandemic Influenza Plan, a simulation flu pandemic exercise led by Public Health. The exercise was prompted by pandemic outbreak being moved to the top of the island's risk register following public health advice from the WHO.
The States first acknowledged the emergence of a novel coronavirus, referred to then as 2019-nCoV Novel Coronavirus (Wuhan Virus), on 23 January when there were 571 known cases of infection worldwide and asserted in a media statement that they were "in a good position to respond to the developing 2019-nCoV situation". On 30 January, the WHO declared the outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, warning that "all countries should be prepared for containment." Testing started soon after and self-isolation requirements were imposed on arrivals to the island from several countries badly affected by the pandemic. On 23 February it was reported that 12 local patients had been tested with all results returning negative. On 25 February, a group of children at a local school were sent home to self-isolate after returning from a ski trip to northern Italy; one symptomatic student was tested but the result came back negative.
Timeline of outbreak March 2020 The first confirmed case in Guernsey was identified on 9 March. The person had contracted the virus on holiday in Tenerife before returning home. The patient sought help promptly, and their family was placed in compulsory quarantine at home. Three days later, on 12 March, the island's most senior politician Gavin St Pier described the pandemic as "the most significant public health challenge since the end of the second world war". On 20 March, a second case was confirmed. The patient had returned from France before immediately entering a compulsory 14-day period of self-isolation during when they became symptomatic. Following the identification of a second case, further cases were quickly identified. A day later, on 21 March, fifteen new cases were confirmed in the space of 24 hours. On 22 March, three further cases were confirmed, as the States of Guernsey identified four clusters among ten cases; three groups were on separate ski trips to France and one group was on a ski trip in Austria and Germany. It was also announced that around 1000 people were in compulsory self-isolation, about 1.5% of the local population. On 23 March, no new cases were confirmed, and the States of Guernsey reaffirmed that a lockdown in the Bailiwick was not yet appropriate, warning of the likely economic and psychological consequences of such measures, and repeated the request for people to observe social distancing measures and practice good hygiene.
The first case confirmed to have been transmitted within the Bailiwick was identified on 24 March, as the local total rose by three to 23 confirmed cases. At 7pm, the States of Guernsey announced in a live broadcast that a lockdown period would begin from 00:01 on 25 March for two weeks during which restrictions would be placed on people's freedom of movement, enforceable by law. More cases continued to be identified as the total number of cases reached 60 on 30 March, by which date testing had begun in the Bailiwick of Guernsey, allowing results to be returned in less than 24 hours and prompting the adoption of a broader testing programme. The first COVID-19 related death in the Bailiwick was confirmed a day later; the individual was 80 years old and died in the afternoon on the day prior. Eighteen more cases were confirmed—the most in a day so far—bringing the total cases to 78, and at 16:00, Lieutenant Governor Vice Admiral Ian Corder, addressed the island, praising the 'discipline and stoicism' of islanders.
April to May 2020 At the start of April, a number of cases were identified across two care homes. A second death was confirmed on 3 April as the cases surpassed one hundred, totalling 114. The number of recoveries was reported for the first time that day, at 13. Following a steady increase in cases, as well as two further deaths of individuals in their 80s, on 7 April the lockdown period was extended for another two weeks. On 9 April it was announced that at the two care homes confirmed to have been hit by the pandemic, 29 residents and 31 staff had tested positive. The next day, on 10 April, the total number of confirmed cases reached 200.
By 15 April, the number of confirmed cases stood at 228, rising by only 28 over the previous five days, prompting director of Public Health Dr. Brink to say the island was "starting to see a flattening of the curve" and that its position was "as good as can be expected" and that the success of the lockdown measures in reducing transmission had "exceeded" her expectations. On 17 April, the States expressed satisfaction that the "curve" had been flattened and announced the start of a phased resumption of business activity, which would eventually see a lifting of the lockdown restrictions, when appropriate. No new cases were found on 19 and 20 April, the first days without new cases since 19 March.
There were no new cases for seven consecutive days from the start of May, with the number of total cases stagnating at 252 and the number of active cases dropping to 15 as of 7 May; the number of deaths remained at 13 throughout this period also. By 11 May, the number of active cases had dropped to just 12. On 15 May, following fifteen consecutive days with no new deaths or cases, the CCA announced that the third phase of the lockdown exit strategy would begin from midnight the next day, a week earlier than anticipated. Following 22 days with no new cases or deaths, on 22 May the CCA announced that the start of phase four of the exit strategy would be brought forward to 30 May—six weeks earlier than initially forecast. On 27 May, the island's twenty-seventh successive day with no new cases, it was announced that there were no known active cases in the Bailiwick.
June to December 2020
On 11 June, Dr. Brink revealed that extensive community testing had found no evidence of the virus in the Bailiwick, prompting the start of phase five of the lockdown exit strategy from 20 June.
Following 129 days with no active cases, on 7 September, a person on their seventh day of self-isolation after arriving from the UK tested positive for COVID-19. Several further isolated-arrivals tested positive in the following weeks, until on 20 October 2020 it was announced that a case with an 'unknown source' had been identified. By 23 October, a cluster of seven related cases were identified, and between 80 and 100 people had entered self-isolation as a result. Dr. Brink emphasised that the cluster was being "closed down" and that there was no evidence of widespread community seeding and St Pier's successor as Chief Minister, Peter Ferbrache, gave assurances that "life will continue as normal" and that Guernsey was "a long, long way" from reintroducing lockdown restrictions.
From late June and for the remainder of 2020, life within the Bailiwick returned almost entirely to normal with no restrictions on gatherings and no requirements for people to socially distance or use face coverings.
January to August 2021
On 23 January 2021, it was announced that four cases were identified the previous evening, the sources of which were not known. None of the individuals had recently travelled outside the island and were not contacts of any known cases or recent arrivals. By 25 January 2021, the number of active cases on the island reached 52, 48 of which were identified as being related to the four cases identified two days earlier.
On 5 February 2021, the first positive case in Alderney was confirmed. As of 31 July 2021, 29 positive cases were reported in Alderney.
On 19 July 2021, a traveller in self-isolation was confirmed to be the first case in Sark.
On 14 August, a further two COVID-19 cases were confirmed in Sark.
Overview of response Strategy