In 2018, the MENA region emitted 3.2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide and produced 8.7% of global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). These emissions are mostly from the energy sector, an integral component of many Middle Eastern and North African economies due to the extensive oil and natural gas reserves that are found within the region. The Middle East region is one of the most vulnerable to climate change. The impacts include increase in drought conditions, aridity, heatwaves and sea level rise.
Sharp global temperature and sea level changes, shifting precipitation patterns and increased frequency of extreme weather events are some of the main impacts of climate change as identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp. The MENA region is especially vulnerable to such impacts due to its arid and semi-arid environment, facing climatic challenges such as low rainfall, high temperatures and dry soil. The climatic conditions that foster such challenges for MENA are projected by the IPCC to worsen throughout the 21st century. If greenhouse gas emissions are not significantly reduced, part of the MENA region risks becoming uninhabitable before the year 2100.
Climate change is expected to put significant strain on already scarce water and agricultural resources within the MENA region, threatening the national security and political stability of all included countries. Over 60 percent of the region's population lives in high and very high water-stressed areas compared to the global average of 35 percent. This has prompted some MENA countries to engage with the issue of climate change on an international level through environmental accords such as the Paris Agreement. Law and policy are also being established on a national level amongst MENA countries, with a focus on the development of renewable energies.
Greenhouse gas emissions
As of January 2021, the UNICEF website groups the following set of 20 countries as belonging to the MENA region: 'Algeria, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran (Islamic Republic of), Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, State of Palestine, Sudan, Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, Yemen.' Others include Israel as well.
Greenhouse gas emissions produced by humans have been identified by the IPCC and the vast majority of climate scientists as the primary driver of climate change. In the past three decades, the MENA region has more than tripled its greenhouse gas emissions and is currently emitting above the global average per person, with most of the top ten countries by carbon dioxide emissions per person being found in the Middle East. These high emissions levels can be primarily attributed to Saudi Arabia and Iran, which are the 9th and 7th largest emitters of CO2 in the world, accounting for 40% of the region's emissions in 2018. MENA countries heavily rely on fossil fuels for the generation of electricity, sourcing 97% of their energy from oil, natural gas, and coal (in Turkey). Fossil fuel extraction, production and exportation is also a significant component of many economies within the MENA region, which possesses 60% of the world oil reserves and 45% of known natural gas reserves.Bridle, Richard, L. Kitson, and Petre Wooders. "Fossil-fuel subsidies: A barrier to renewable energy in five Middle East and North African countries." GSI Report (2014): 8-9. Reducing gas flaring would help.
The failure of the Iranian subsidy reform plan during the 2010s left Iran as the world's largest subsidizer of fossil fuel in 2018. But, unlike other countries which successfully removed subsidies by acting gradually, at the end of the decade, the government attempted to suddenly reduce gasoline subsidies, sparking riots.
Impacts on the natural environment
Temperature and weather changes
Heat extremes The IPCC project average global temperatures to rise more than 1.5 degrees by the end of the 21st century. MENA has been identified as a hotspot for future temperature changes due to its arid environmental conditions. Whilst projected rates of warming during winter months are low, the region is expected to experience extreme temperature increases during summer. Temperature rises are expected to be further amplified by reductions in rainfall and the associated depletion of soil moisture, limiting evaporative cooling. As a result, heat extremes are expected to increase significantly in both frequency and intensity across the MENA region. According to studies published by the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, the number of very hot days in the region has doubled between the 1970s and the time when the report was published (2016). The study further projects that heatwaves will occur for 80 days of the year by 2050 and 118 days of the year by 2100. Considering also increased sandstorms associated with longer drought periods, even a 2 degree temperature rise would make large parts of the region uninhabitable and force people to migrate. Limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees, will significantly reduce risks for the region.
The average maximum temperature during the hottest days of the past 30 years has been 43 degrees Celsius. Dutch atmospheric chemist Johannes Lelieveld has projected that temperature maximum's could reach almost 50 degrees Celsius under current climate scenarios established by the IPCC. Johannes Lelieveld further projects that average summer temperatures are expected to increase by up to 7% across the MENA region, and up to 10% in highly urbanised areas. Extreme heat has been identified as a serious threat to human health, heightening an individual's susceptibility to exhaustion, heart attack and mortality. Climate scientist Ali Ahmadalipour has projected heat-related mortality rates within the MENA region to be up to 20 times higher than current rates by the end of the century.
Water resources The Middle East and North Africa currently faces extreme water scarcity, with twelve out of the 17 most water stressed countries in the world deriving from the region. The World Bank defines an area as being water stressed when per person water supplies fall below 1,700 cubic metres per year. The water supply across the MENA region is averaged at 1274 cubic metres per capita, with some countries having access to only 50 cubic metres per person. The agricultural sector within the MENA region is heavily dependent on irrigation systems due to its arid climate, with 85% of fresh water resources being utilised for agricultural purposes. The IPCC indicate that the global distribution of rainfall is currently shifting in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, with increases in high latitude and mid-latitude wet region and decreases in equatorial dry regions such as the MENA. These shifting precipitation patterns have already placed significant strain on MENA agriculture, with the frequency and severity of droughts rising significantly in the past decade.
A recent NASA study suggests that the 1998–2012 drought in the Middle East was the worst to occur in the past 900 years. Climate scientist Colin Kelley suggests that climate change was a significant contributor to the increased severity of the most recent drought in the region. He claims that such drought is 3 times more likely to occur due to human influence on climate and the drought have contributed to the beginning of the Syrian civil war. Along with environmental impacts, increasing drought periods affect agricultural incomes, diminishes public health and weakens political stability in the MENA region. Syria experienced its most severe drought on record from 2007 to 2010, where restricted water supply degraded agricultural resources and increased economic pressures. American environmental scientist Peter Gleick also asserts that heightened social vulnerability and conflict over scare water supplies during this period catalysed the onset of the Syrian war.
However, in 2017, a study led by sociologist and political ecologist Jan Selby has discredited these claims, reporting that there is no solid evidence that climate change is associated with the drought, the same about the impact of the drought on the conflict in Syria. In 2019 Konstantin Ash and Nick Obradovich published research indicating that extreme drought was one of the leading factors in the creation of the Syrian war.
Increasing water insecurity as a result of climate change is set to exacerbate existing food insecurities in the countries affected. A study published by the World Food Programme has predicted a decline in crop yields by 30% in 2050 as a result of increasing droughts. North African countries are highly vulnerable to reduced precipitation, as 88% of the region's crops possess no irrigation, relying on consistent rainfall. The consequences of these reduced harvests strongly impact rural regions and communities that rely heavily on agriculture as a source of income.
Sea level rise
Alexandria is one of the most vulnerable cities to sea level rise.
Across the MENA region, 60 million people inhabited coastal areas in 2010, a population that has been predicted by the World Bank to grow to 100 million by 2030. As a result, the population of the MENA region is expected to be significantly impacted by sea level rise occurring due to climate change. One consequence of rising sea levels is the loss of coastal wetlands, a natural resource responsible for ecosystem services such as storm buffering, water quality maintenance and carbon sequestration. A study conducted by the World Bank predicts that the MENA region would lose over 90% of its coastal and freshwater wetlands if a one-metre sea level rise were to occur.
In North Africa, Egypt is expected to be most affected by changes in sea level. A third of the Nile Delta and large parts of Alexandria, Egypt's second-largest city, lie below the mean global sea level. These areas have been drained for agricultural purposes and undergone urban development, where inundation and flooding is prevented by sea walls and dams. However, failures occurring in these structures, storm surges and extreme weather events could lead to the inundation of these areas in the future if sea levels continue to rise. Agricultural areas in Egypt are particularly at risk, where a one-metre rise in sea level would submerge 12–15% of the nation's total agricultural land. This is estimated to displace 6.7 million people in Egypt and affect millions more who rely on agriculture for income. A more moderate 50 cm increase in sea level has been projected to displace 2 million people and generate US$35 billion of damages.
Mitigation and adaptation The severe impacts of climate change on the region, made climate change mitigation and adaptation an important issue in it. Regional cooperation is considered as one of the main conditions for effective mitigation and adaptation.
Renewable energy