A regional election was held in Castilla–La Mancha on 28 May 2023 to elect the 11th of the autonomous community. All 33 seats in the were up for election. It was held concurrently with regional elections in eleven other autonomous communities and local elections all across Spain.

Overview Electoral system The Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha were the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Castilla–La Mancha, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Castilian-Manchegan Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. Voting for the Cortes was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Castilla–La Mancha and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2022 abolished the "begged" or expat vote system (), under which Spaniards abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote. The expat vote system was attributed responsibility for a major decrease in the turnout of Spaniards abroad during the years it had been in force.

The 33 members of the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Albacete, Ciudad Real, Cuenca, Guadalajara and Toledo, with each being allocated an initial minimum of three seats and the remaining 18 being distributed in proportion to their populations.

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Cortes constituency was entitled the following seats:

Seats Constituencies 9 Toledo 7 Albacete, Ciudad Real 5 Cuenca, Guadalajara

In smaller constituencies, the use of the electoral method resulted in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.

Election date The term of the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha expired four years after the date of their previous election. Elections to the Cortes were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 26 May 2019, setting the election date for the Cortes on 28 May 2023.

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected lawmakers serving the remainder of its original four-year term. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the candidate from the party with the highest number of seats was to be deemed automatically elected.

The election to the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha were officially triggered on 4 April 2023 after the publication of the election decree in the Official Journal of Castilla–La Mancha (DOCM), scheduling for the chamber to convene on 22 June.

Parliamentary composition The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Cortes at the time of dissolution.

+ Parliamentary composition in April 2023 Groups Parties Legislators Seats Total Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 19 19 People's Parliamentary Group PP 10 10 Citizens's Parliamentary Group CS 4 4

Parties and candidates The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy Parties andalliances Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Vote % Seats PSOE Emiliano García-Page Social democracy 44.1% PP Francisco Núñez ConservatismChristian democracy 28.5% CS Carmen Picazo Liberalism 11.4% Vox David Moreno Right-wing populismUltranationalismNational conservatism 7.0% UnidasPodemosCLM José Luis García Gascón Left-wing populismDirect democracyDemocratic socialism 6.9%

Campaign Debates + 2023 Castilian-Manchegan regional election debates Date Organizer(s) Moderator(s) PSOE PP CS Vox UP Audience 22 May CMM Óscar GarcíaSonia Trigueros 10.4%

Opinion polls The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

Voting intention estimates The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 17 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout Lead 2023 regional election 28 May 2023 69.6 45.0 33.7 1.0 12.8 4.2 0.3 11.3 GAD3/RTVE–FORTA 12–27 May 2023 4,000? 44.2 34.0 1.5 11.4 6.8 – 10.2 PSOE 22 May 2023?? 47.0–48.0 29.0–30.0 – 10.0–11.0 – – 18.0 NC Report/La Razón 22 May 2023?? 40.4 37.3 – 10.9 – – 3.1 KeyData/Público 18 May 2023? 71.2 41.0 35.7 2.4 11.1 6.1 – 5.3 Sigma Dos/El Mundo 15–18 May 2023 1,200? 42.3 34.8 1.2 13.5 6.6 – 7.5 EM-Analytics/El Plural 11–17 May 2023 600? 40.2 37.2 2.6 10.7 6.5 1.6 3.0 Data10/Okdiario 15–16 May 2023 1,500? 40.5 38.6 1.9 10.7 5.7 – 1.9 Target Point/El Debate 9–15 May 2023 800? 42.2 36.4 1.2 10.8 6.3 – 5.8 SocioMétrica/El Español 8–14 May 2023?? 40.4 37.0 2.4 11.4 5.9 – 3.4 EM-Analytics/El Plural 4–10 May 2023 600? 40.1 37.3 2.6 10.7 6.5 1.7 2.8 IMOP/El Confidencial 4–6 May 2023 1,295 66 46.5 31.6 2.3 12.1 4.8 – 14.9 EM-Analytics/El Plural 26 Apr–3 May 2023 600? 39.7 37.0 2.6 10.8 6.5 1.7 2.7 CIS 10–26 Apr 2023 971? 47.2 28.1 2.7 11.4 6.9 – 19.1 EM-Analytics/El Plural 19–25 Apr 2023 600? 39.4?? 11.0 6.5?? EM-Analytics/El Plural 12–18 Apr 2023 600? 38.9 36.5 2.5 11.6 6.4 2.2 2.4 Sigma Dos/El Mundo 17 Apr 2023?? 40.6 36.6 2.8 10.8 6.9 – 4.0 Data10/Okdiario 10–13 Apr 2023 1,500? 38.6 38.8 2.5 10.2 6.4 – 0.2 EM-Analytics/El Plural 5–11 Apr 2023 600? 38.1 36.4 2.2 12.7 6.5 2.0 1.7 SocioMétrica/El Español 3–7 Apr 2023 1,200? 38.8 37.2 2.8 11.8 6.4 – 1.6 Idus3/PSOE 3–5 Apr 2023 500? 45.1 31.0 2.7 9.8 5.4 – 14.1 EM-Analytics/El Plural 27 Mar–4 Apr 2023 600? 37.5 36.4 2.3 13.3 6.7 2.0 1.1 NC Report/La Razón 17–24 Mar 2023?? 39.3 37.6 – 11.0 – – 1.7 KeyData/Público 15 Mar 2023? 71.3 39.5 36.7 2.9 10.5 6.5 – 2.8 Data10/Okdiario 14–16 Feb 2023 1,500? 40.8 38.3 2.7 9.1 6.5 – 2.5 Idus3/PSOE 9–27 Jan 2023 4,723? 44.2 32.5 2.6 10.6 5.6 – 11.7 PP 21 Jan 2023???? –? – –? GAD3/PP 16 Jan 2023???? –? – –? CIS 17 Nov–2 Dec 2022 449? 44.4 22.5 2.0 13.4 9.6 – 21.9 Idus3/PSOE 3–25 Nov 2022 4,350? 46.0 30.8 3.7 11.9 5.9 – 15.2 Sigma Dos/El Mundo 18–24 Nov 2022 1,100? 39.9 34.2 3.5 10.4 6.4 – 5.7 PP 5 Oct 2022? 66.9 39.2 38.9 1.5 10.8 4.7 – 0.3 Idus3/PSOE 16–20 May 2022 800? 44.9 31.9 3.2 9.5 5.0 – 13.0 NC Report/PP 2–18 May 2022 2,400 66.3 39.5 37.0 3.2 11.1 6.2 – 2.5 EM-Analytics/Electomanía 28 Feb–13 Apr 2022 324? 38.6 35.3 2.9 13.1 6.8 1.7 3.3 EM-Analytics/Electomanía 1 Dec–14 Jan 2022 191? 39.7 35.7 2.8 12.5 6.6 1.2 4.0 Idus3/PSOE 3–17 Dec 2021 4,723? 45.5 30.9 3.6 12.5 5.5 – 14.6 GAD3/PSOE 20 Nov–3 Dec 2021 1,202? 42.9 30.7 4.3 13.0 6.9 – 12.2 Idus3/PSOE 4–15 Oct 2021 2,500? 42.5 30.2 5.1 13.2 5.9 – 12.3 NC Report/La Tribuna 14 Oct 2021 1,450 64.6 38.9 38.1 3.4 11.9 5.3 – 0.8 EM-Analytics/Electomanía 13 Jul–21 Aug 2021 223? 39.8 36.7 – 11.0 6.2 – 3.1 Idus3/PSOE 24–28 May 2021 1,200?????? –? NC Report/La Razón 19–25 May 2021 1,450? 38.6 38.3 3.4 12.0 5.1 – 0.3 PSOE 19 Dec 2020?? 42.0 33.0 7.1 10.0 5.0 – 9.0 ElectoPanel/Electomanía 15 Jul 2020 850? 38.6 33.5 7.7 10.2 8.1 – 5.1 PSOE 29 Jun–10 Jul 2020 2,500? 42.3 31.5 7.6? 6.4 – 10.8 SyM Consulting 20–22 May 2020 3,209 68.3 37.5 29.6 5.9 16.5 8.4 – 7.9 NC Report/La Razón 17–21 May 2020 1,858? 40.3 33.7 6.5 11.2 6.4 – 6.6 ElectoPanel/Electomanía 1 Apr–15 May 2020?? 40.4 36.2 5.8 7.9 8.0 – 4.2 Numeral 8/La Tribuna 20–24 Jan 2020 1,050? 43.4 29.9 9.1 8.6 7.6 – 13.5 PSOE 3 Dec 2019??????? –? November 2019 general election 10 Nov 2019 70.6 33.1 26.9 6.8 21.9 9.2 – 6.2 2019 regional election 26 May 2019 69.4 44.1 28.5 11.4 7.0 6.9 – 15.6

Voting preferences The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Lead 2023 regional election 28 May 2023 31.5 23.5 0.7 9.0 2.9 28.9 8.0 CIS 10–26 Apr 2023 971 38.4 18.2 1.2 8.9 4.8 21.7 2.9 20.2 Idus3/PSOE 3–5 Apr 2023 500 30.5 16.1 0.7 7.0 3.0 32.2 6.9 14.4 Idus3/PSOE 9–27 Jan 2023 4,723 30.0 17.0 0.6 7.4 2.7 32.2 6.9 13.0 CIS 17 Nov–2 Dec 2022 449 29.9 13.9 0.7 9.1 6.3 28.9 5.4 16.0 Idus3/PSOE 3–25 Nov 2022 4,350 28.8 15.4 0.8 6.4 2.8 35.2 7.5 13.4 Idus3/PSOE 16–20 May 2022 800 32.0 17.9 0.9 7.9 2.8 28.2 7.3 14.1 Idus3/PSOE 3–17 Dec 2021 4,723 31.5 18.3 1.1 9.4 3.5 24.1 9.1 13.2 November 2019 general election 10 Nov 2019 23.3 18.9 4.8 15.4 6.5 28.6 4.4 2019 regional election 26 May 2019 30.9 20.0 8.0 4.9 4.8 29.2 10.9

Victory likelihood The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None Lead GAD3/PSOE 20 Nov–3 Dec 2021 1,202 56.5 17.9 0.5 3.7 0.7 28.1 38.6

Preferred President The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Junta of Communities of Castilla–La Mancha.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None/Notcare Lead IMOP/El Confidencial 4–6 May 2023 1,295 42.0 13.0 – – – – – 29.0 Idus3/PSOE 9–27 Jan 2023 4,723 46.2 13.9 – – – 26.8 13.1 32.3 Idus3/PSOE 16–20 May 2022 800 47.5 12.4 – – – 22.9 17.2 35.1 Idus3/PSOE 3–17 Dec 2021 4,723 58.0 18.0 – – – 24.0 40.0 GAD3/PSOE 20 Nov–3 Dec 2021 1,202 38.0 11.2 1.8 5.4 2.4 41.2 26.8

Results Overall