The official figure of war related deaths during World War II in Yugoslavia and the immediate post-war period, provided by the Yugoslav government in 1946, was 1,706,000 deaths. This number was claimed to be exaggerated in later studies, particularly by statistician Bogoljub Kočović, who in 1985 estimated the actual war losses of the pre-war territory of the Kingdom of Yugoslavia at 1,014,000, and demographer Vladimir Žerjavić, whose 1989 estimate was 1,027,000 deaths. Kočović did not separate civilian and military deaths, while Žerjavić estimated that 53% were civilians, and 47% were members of various military forces.
Total number of deaths The Yugoslav government estimated the number of human losses during World War II in Yugoslavia at 1,706,000. This figure was submitted to the International Reparations Commission in Paris in 1946. The Commission then requested a documented estimate of the number of casualties. The Yugoslav government gave the task of providing a "significant, but scientifically and statistically founded" death toll to a mathematician of the Federal Bureau of Statistics. The results of this research were demographic losses, encompassing deaths during the war, declining birth-rates, and migration, of around 1,700,000. Deputy Prime Minister Edvard Kardelj presented the demographic losses as actual war losses to support Yugoslavia's request for reparations. This number, equalling to 10.8% of its population, stayed the official estimate in Yugoslavia during its existence.
The Yugoslav censuses of war losses, conducted in 1944/1947, 1950 and 1964, did not confirm the claim of 1,706,000 deaths. The 1964 victims census was conducted for the purpose of negotiating war reparations for human losses and damage to infrastructure with West Germany. The census was requested by Germany as its government did not agree with negotiations on the basis of the official Yugoslav estimate at the time. The 1964 census resulted in a death toll of 597,323 for Yugoslavia. The results were declared a secret and were first revealed to the public in 1989. The census committee claimed that the census covered around 56-59%, or 60-65% of deaths. The Yugoslav censuses did not cover the deaths of Axis troops and the victims of Yugoslav Partisans.
In 1954, the United States Census Bureau estimated the war related deaths of Yugoslavia at 1,067,000. Estimates and calculations of the wartime population losses of Yugoslavia from Ivo Lah, a Slovene statistician, Croatian demographers Ivan Klauzer and Vladimir Žerjavić, and Serb statistician Bogoljub Kočović, ranging between 900,000 and 1,150,000, showed that the official Yugoslav government's figure was highly exaggerated. The most detailed estimates are those of Kočović and Žerjavić. The differences between them were very small, the calculated total number of victims for the pre-war territory of the Kingdom of Yugoslavia by Kočović was 1,014,000, and 1,027,000 by Žerjavić. The post-war borders of Yugoslavia included an additional 8,262 square kilometers of territory that was ceded from Italy.
From 2003, the Belgrade Museum of Genocide Victims has conducted a revision of the 1964 victims list, excluding deaths that occurred after 15 May 1945. As of 2019, the identified number of human losses is 657,290. Dragan Cvetković, a historian working at the museum, estimates between 1,042,000–1,092,000 human losses for the territory of the Kingdom of Yugoslavia, and 28,000 for areas ceded after the war to Yugoslavia.
+ Estimates of wartime losses of Yugoslavia Source Kingdom of Yugoslavia Areas ceded from Italy Yugoslav government (1946) 1,706,000 Ivo Lah (1951) 1,000,000 U.S. Census Bureau (1954) 1,067,000 Yugoslav census of victims (1964) 580,981 16,342 Bogoljub Kočović (1985) 1,014,000 N/A Vladimir Žerjavić (1989) 1,027,000 42,000 Dragan Cvetković (2007) 1,042,000–1,092,000 28,000
By federal subject and ethnicity Kočović's and Žerjavić's research showed that the highest war losses, compared to the expected population number in 1948, were in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Croatia. In absolute terms, the highest losses were in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, and Serbia proper. The 1964 census of victims showed similar proportions.
The highest relative losses among ethnicities were among the Jews and Roma, and in absolute terms among Serbs and Croats. Kočović and Žerjavić differ in some of their categorizations of victims by ethnicity, largely in the case of the Montenegrin losses. According to Žerjavić, it represented around 4% of their expected population, and according to Kočović, more than 10%. Žerjavić said that Kočović took into account a "considerably larger" annual growth rate for Montenegro in the period of 1941–1948, compared to 1921–1931 and the registered annual growth rate in Yugoslavia after 1931.
+ Actual losses by federal subject and ethnicity, according to Žerjavić Federal subject Total Serbs Croats Muslims Montenegrins Jews Others Bosnia and Herzegovina 316,000 164,000 64,000 75,000 - 9,000 4,000 Croatia 271,000 131,000 106,000 2,000 - 10,000 22,000 Slovenia 33,000 - - - - - 33,000 Montenegro 37,000 6,000 1,000 4,000 20,000 - 6,000 Macedonia 17,000 6,000 - 4,000 - - 7,000 Serbia proper 167,000 142,000 - 13,000 - 7,000 5,000 AP Vojvodina 83,000 45,000 6,000 - - 7,000 25,000 AP Kosovo 23,000 3,000 1,000 2,000 - - 17,000 Abroad 80,000 33,000 14,000 3,000 - 24,000 6,000 Total 1,027,000 530,000 192,000 103,000 20,000 57,000 125,000+ Actual losses by federal subject and ethnicity, according to Kočović Federal subject Total Serbs and Montenegrins Croats Muslims Jews Others Bosnia and Herzegovina 382,000 209,000 79,000 75,000 10,000 9,000 Croatia 295,000 125,000 124,000 - 17,000 29,000 Slovenia 35,000 - - - 1,000 35,000 Montenegro 50,000 45,000 - 4,000 - 1,000 Macedonia 25,000 7,000 - 1,000 6,000 11,000 Serbia proper 141,000 114,000 1,000 5,000 8,000 13,000 AP Vojvodina 76,000 33,000 3,000 1,000 17,000 22,000 AP Kosovo 10,000 4,000 - - 1,000 5,000 Total 1,014,000 537,000 207,000 86,000 60,000 124,000
Bosnia and Herzegovina Human losses of Bosnia and Herzegovina in World War II and the post-war period+ According to Žerjavić Ethnic group Total In the country Abroad Serbs 170,000 164,000 6,000 Muslims 78,000 75,000 3,000 Croats 66,000 64,000 2,000 Jews 10,000 9,000 1,000 Roma 1,000 1,000 - Germans 1,000 1,000 - Poles 1,000 1,000 - Russians 1,000 1,000 - Total 328,000 316,000 12,000+ According to Kočović Ethnic group Abroad and in the country Serbs and Montenegrins 209,000 Croats 79,000 Muslims 75,000 Jews 10,000 Roma 5,000 Germans 1,000 Czechs and Slovaks 1,000 Poles 1,000 Russians and Ukrainians 1,000 Total 382,000
Croatia Human losses of Croatia in World War II and the post-war period+ According to Žerjavić Ethnic group Total In the country Abroad Areas ceded from Italy Serbs 137,000 131,000 6,000 - Croats 133,000 106,000 12,000 15,000 Italians 16,000 - - 16,000 Jews 16,000 10,000 6,000 - Roma 15,000 15,000 - - Slovenes 3,000 2,000 - 1,000 Germans 2,000 2,000 - - Muslims 2,000 2,000 - - Hungarians 1,000 1,000 - - Czechs and Slovaks 1,000 1,000 - - Others 1,000 1,000 - - Total 327,000 271,000 24,000 32,000+ According to Kočović Ethnic group Abroad and in the country Areas ceded from Italy Serbs and Montenegrins 125,000 N/A Croats 124,000 N/A Italians 1,000 N/A Jews 17,000 N/A Roma 15,000 N/A Germans 6,000 N/A Hungarians 2,000 N/A Czechs and Slovaks 2,000 N/A Slovenes 1,000 N/A Poles 1,000 N/A Russians and Ukrainians 1,000 N/A Total 295,000 N/A
Relative losses + Relative war losses compared to the expected population in 1948+ By federal subject Federal subject Žerjavić Kočović Bosnia and Herzegovina 10.3% 11.8% Croatia 7.3% 7.3% Slovenia 3% 2.7% Montenegro 7.8% 10.2% Macedonia 1.9% 2% Serbia proper 4.1% 3.2% AP Vojvodina 5.1% 4.3% AP Kosovo 3.1% 1.3% Total 5.9% 5.9%+ By ethnicity, according to Kočović Ethnicity Relative loss Jews 77.9% Roma 31.4% Montenegrins 10.4% Serbs 6.9% Muslims 6.8% Croats 5.4% Germans 4.8% Slovenes 2.5% Albanians 1% Hungarians 1% Macedonians 0.9%+ By South Slavic ethnic group, according to Kočović Ethnic group Relative loss Serbs of Croatia 16.3% Serbs of Bosnia and Herzegovina 14.6% Serbs and Montenegrins of Montenegro 11.6% Croats of Bosnia and Herzegovina 11.4% Serbs of Macedonia 10.9% Muslims of Bosnia and Herzegovina 7.4% Muslims of Montenegro 6.0% Muslims of Serbia proper 5.2% Serbs of Vojvodina 4.9% Croats of Croatia 4.2% Serbs of Serbia proper 2.9% Slovenes of Slovenia 2.3% Croats of Vojvodina 2.1% Serbs of Kosovo 2% Macedonians of Macedonia 0.8%
Victim category + Actual losses by federal subject and victim category, according to Žerjavić Federal subject Total Total fatalities Yugoslav Partisans Axis forces Bosnia and Herzegovina 316,000 174,000 72,000 70,000 Croatia 271,000 153,000 66,000 52,000 Slovenia 33,000 11,000 12,000 10,000 Montenegro 37,000 15,000 15,000 7,000 Macedonia 17,000 2,000 14,000 1,000 Serbia 167,000 92,000 42,000 33,000 AP Vojvodina 83,000 46,000 10,000 27,000 AP Kosovo 23,000 8,000 6,000 9,000 Total 947,000 501,000 237,000 209,000
Independent State of Croatia Civilian Žerjavić's calculation of the civilian deaths in Croatia was 153,000, in Bosnia and Herzegovina 174,000, and in Vojvodina 46,000. The Independent State of Croatia (NDH) included the entire Bosnia and Herzegovina, most of Croatia, and a part of Vojvodina. The rough estimate of the total number of civilian deaths on this territory is 300–330,000. Kočović did not sort out the casualties by category.
Dragan Cvetković of the Belgrade Museum of Genocide Victims estimates that between 499–530,000 civilians lost their lives in the NDH. Among them were 66.5% Serbs, 10.2% Croats, 7.8% Muslims, 5.8% Jews, 4.9% Roma, and 4.9 others and undetermined. The estimate is based on a partially revised victims list from the 1964 Yugoslav census, excluding casualties that occurred after the formal end of the war. The civilian deaths in the NDH make up 73% of all civilian deaths in Yugoslavia.
+ Civilian deaths in the NDH by ethnicity Ethnicity Cvetković Žerjavić Low estimate High estimate Serbs 332,000 352,000 217,000 Croats 51,000 54,000 70,000 Muslims 39,000 41,000 39,000 Jews 29,000 31,000 26,900 Roma 24,000 26,000 16,000 Other 6,000 7,000 N/A Undetermined 18,000 19,000 N/A Total 499,000 530,000 N/A
Serbs Kočović calculated the actual losses of Serbs in the NDH, both civilian and military casualties, at 370,000. With a possible error of around 10%, he said that Serb losses cannot be higher than 410,000. According to Žerjavić, 217,000 Serbs in the NDH died as "victims of fascist terror", of whom 93,000 died in camps, prisons and pits. Of that number, Žerjavić estimated that 78,000 were killed by the Ustaše at Jasenovac and in "prisons, pits and other camps", 45,000 were killed by German forces, 15,000 by Italian forces, 34,000 were killed in battles between the Ustaše, the Chetniks, and the Partisans, and 25,000 died of typhoid. 20,000 were killed in the German Sajmište camp.
According to Cvetković, the total Serb civilian deaths were 332–352,000. The Belgrade Museum of Genocide Victims estimates that 101,400–106,700 Serbs died in NDH concentration camps.
Croats and Muslims According to Žerjavić, 70,000 Croats from the NDH died as "civilians, casualties of direct terror and camps": 33,000 in Croatia, 25,000 in Bosnia and Herzegovina, 2,000 in Srijem, and 10,000 abroad. Out of that number, excluding the casualties from abroad, 18,000 were killed by the Chetniks, 17,000 by NDH armed forces, 14,000 by the Partisans, 7,000 by German forces, and 5,000 by Italian forces. Around 1,000 Croatian Muslims were included in these calculations.
Cvetković estimates that 51-54,000 Croat civilians died during the war in the territory of the NDH. According to the Belgrade Museum of Genocide Victims, 11,900–13,100 Croats died in NDH concentration camps.