General elections were held in Bolivia on 18 October 2020 for President, Vice President, and all seats in both the Senate and Chamber of Deputies. Luis Arce of the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS-IPSP) party was elected president in a landslide, winning 55% of the vote and securing majorities in both chambers of the Plurinational Legislative Assembly. The results of the election superseded the disputed results of the October 2019 elections, which were annulled during a prolonged political crisis.
Although the winning party received a higher proportion of the vote in 2020 than in the previous annulled elections, for the first time since 2009 the winning party did not have a two-thirds majority in the Legislative Assembly, meaning that some functions would require cross-party support. For the first time, the Senate will contain a majority of female senators. Electoral authorities had initially scheduled the elections for 3 May 2020. They were postponed due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, first to 6 September 2020 and then to 18 October 2020. The latter date was ratified by a 13 August 2020 law following protests and blockades against the previous postponements.
The parties or alliances contesting the election were the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS-IPSP), which governed before 2019, Civic Community (CC), the newly formed Creemos (Let's create, We believe) alliance, the and the (PAN-BOL). Presidential candidates Carlos Mesa (CC) and Chi Hyun Chung (FPV) were the second and third-place finishers, respectively, in the annulled 2019 presidential election. Luis Arce was the MAS candidate, replacing former MAS president Evo Morales. Feliciano Mamani replaced Ruth Nina as candidate for PAN-BOL. Incumbent president Jeanine Áñez, former president Jorge Quiroga, and María de la Cruz Bayá all launched presidential candidacies, but withdrew before the election was held.
The official count took several days to complete. Independent quick-counts of the vote conducted by polling firms Ciesmori and Mi Voto Cuenta (My Vote Counts) on the morning of 19 October both indicated that Arce had won a majority of the vote, enough to win the election outright without requiring a runoff round. President Áñez confirmed this on Twitter shortly after, and former presidents Mesa and Quiroga both indicated their acceptance of the preliminary results later that day. Official observers from the UN, UNIORE, and the OAS all stated that there was no evidence of fraud in the 2020 election.
Background 2019 election
On 10 November 2019, after 19 days of civil protests following the disputed election results of October 2019 and the release of a report from the OAS, which alleged irregularities in the electoral process, the military and the police of Bolivia forced president Morales to resign. After General Williams Kaliman made the military's request for Morales's resignation public, Morales complied, accompanied by other resignations by high-level politicians throughout the day, some citing fears for the safety of their families. The government of Mexico offered political asylum to Morales the following day, which Morales accepted a day afterwards.
As Vice-President Álvaro García Linera, President of the Senate Adriana Salvatierra and President of the Chamber of Deputies Víctor Borda, had already resigned, there were no constitutionally-designated successors. The First Vice President of the Senate, Rubén Medinaceli, had also resigned. Jeanine Áñez, the Second Vice President of the Senate, was the highest-ranking official still in office and she announced that she would be willing to ascend to the presidency on an interim basis in order to call for new elections. On 12 November 2019 Áñez took temporary charge of the Senate of Bolivia, thereby formally placing herself in the line of succession as acting President of the Senate, and on this basis proceeded to declare herself the Constitutional President of the country. Her accession to office was formally legitimized by a decision of the Plurinational Constitutional Tribunal later the same day, which stated that she had lawfully assumed office ipso facto, in accordance with the precedent laid out by Constitutional Declaration 0003/01 of 31 July 2001. Many in Bolivia protested against Añez becoming president, which led to violent clashes between them and the police. Several MAS supporters were killed by the police during confrontations in Senkata and Sacaba. The Argentine delegation in Bolivia and the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights described these as massacres.
On 20 November, Evo Morales offered to not run as a presidential candidate if he was allowed to return to Bolivia and conclude his term.
In the same day, the interim government presented a bill that aimed to forge a path to new elections. The two chambers of congress were expected to debate the bill which would annul the 20 October election and appoint a new electoral board within 15 days of its passage, paving the way for a new vote. The bill, drafted jointly by Morales' Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS-IPSP) and anti-Morales legislators, was approved on 23 November; it prohibited Morales from participating in the fresh election. In exchange, Áñez's government agreed to withdraw the armed forces from all protest areas (although some servicemen were still permitted to stay at some state companies to "prevent vandalism"), to revoke her decree which granted the army immunity from criminal prosecution, to release arrested pro-Morales protesters, to protect lawmakers and social leaders from attacks and to provide compensation for the families of those killed during the crisis. She approved the bill shortly thereafter.
Candidacy of Áñez
On 5 December, Áñez stated that she would not be a candidate or support any candidate.Jeanine Áñez no postulará a la Presidencia de Bolivia, según el Gobierno interino. Publicado el 5 de diciembre de 2019. Consultado el 8 de diciembre de 2019. This was reiterated on 15 January 2020 by Minister for the Presidency Yerko Núñez, who said that "[Áñez] will not be a candidate. The President has stated on several occasions, she will not be a candidate, this is a government of peace, transition, and management because you can not stop the state apparatus."
Despite her previous statements, Áñez announced her candidacy on 24 January 2020. A survey reported in the Bolivian newspaper Los Tiempos indicated that, while 43% of respondents considered her to have done a "good or very good" job as interim president (compared to 27% bad or very bad), only 24% of respondents believed that she should stand as a candidate in the upcoming elections. In the same poll, 63% of respondents agreed with the statement that "as interim president, Jeanine Áñez should call elections and not take advantage of her power to become a presidential candidate." On 17 September 2020, following a poll that put Arce in first place with above 40% support, and Áñez in fourth place, Áñez announced the end of her candidacy, citing the risk that the vote would be split between the conservative candidates.
Election postponement and blockades
In March 2020, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal announced the election and preparatory activities would be postponed due to emergency restrictions to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. All major parties agreed with this measure and that a date for the new election would be chosen by the legislative assembly based on a public health evaluation at a later date.
On 22 June 2020, Áñez approved a law passed by both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate to set 6 September 2020 as the date for the election, with elected authorities in place by mid-to-late November 2020.
On 23 July 2020, the TSE announced that the election would be postponed to 18 October 2020 due to medical reports that the pandemic would have its highest peaks in late August and early September. Evo Morales condemned the delays, calling them an unconstitutional attempt by Áñez to remain in power, and some groups, including the Bolivian Workers' Center, carried out protests and blockades. The electoral body, experts and MAS politicians disagreed on the unconstitutionality of the decision. MAS supporters responded to the election postponement by protesting and, on 3 August, started an indefinite strike, blocking highways in El Alto and other party strongholds. Former president of Bolivia, Jaime Paz Zamora of the Revolutionary Left Movement, criticised Morales for supporting the blockades, which resulted in the deaths of 33 coronavirus patients due to lack of oxygen. Morales later accepted the decision of the TSE after rising opposition to the protests. On 10 August, Morales called for dialogue and asked MAS supporters to "consider" the TSE's plan for an election on 18 October with the UN as observer. A survey by Mercados y Muestras showed that 59% of those surveyed believed that MAS were behind the medicine and food shortages to the cities and 65% believed that the organisers of the blockades should face prosecution. MAS Vice President Orlando Zurita said the road blockades were established by MAS. In some places, dynamite was used to destroy the highway and two soldiers were severely beaten by protestors. In Santa Cruz, Potosí, Cochabamba and other areas of the country, the police and government stated that some protesters were armed and that violence had been carried out violence against police and property. On 10 August, Añez asked the La Paz prosecutor general's office to investigate Morales, Arce, Choquehuanca, and eight other MAS leaders for fomenting "terrorism, genocide, and other crimes against health" in relation to the protests.
In late August and early September 2020, the police reported large seizures of weapons, dynamite and ammunition which the government alleged were linked to Mexican drug cartels and MAS-affiliated groups. Government supporters made statements in the media suggesting that groups related to organized crime could seek to destabilize the coming elections.
Electoral system
The President of Bolivia is elected using a modified first-preference plurality system (a two-round system): a candidate is declared the winner if they receive more than 50% of the vote, or over 40% of the vote and are 10 percentage points ahead of their closest rival. If neither condition is met, a run-off election is held between the two top candidates.
The 130 members in the Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) are elected using a seat linkage based mixed compensatory system using two votes: 63 deputies are elected by first-preference plurality to represent single-member electoral districts, 60 are elected by closed list party-list proportional representation from party lists on a departmental basis (in districts of varying sizes corresponding to Bolivia's nine departments with a threshold of 3%). The list seats in each region are awarded proportionally based on the vote for the presidential candidates, subtracting the number of single-member districts won (to provide mixed-member proportional representation). The remaining seven seats are reserved indigenous seats elected by the usos y costumbres. A voter can only vote in one of either the normal constituencies or special constituencies (coexistence). Party lists are required to alternate between men and women, and in the single-member districts, men are required to run with a female alternate, and vice versa. At least 50% of the deputies from single-member districts are required to be women.
The Chamber of Senators (Cámara de Senadores) has 36 members, four from each the country's nine departments, which are also elected using closed party-lists, using the D'Hondt method. The senate seats are also awarded based on the vote for president.