Opinion polling for the 2022 Portuguese legislative election

In the run up to the 2022 Portuguese legislative election, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the 2019 Portuguese legislative election, held on 6 October, to the day the next election was held on 30 January.

Nationwide polling Graphical summary

Polling

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout Lead2022 legislative election 30 Jan 2022 51.5 41.4 29.1 4.4 4.3 1.6 1.6 7.2 4.9 1.3 4.2 12.3 UCP–CESOP 30 Jan 2022 27,615 46–51 37–42 30–35 3–6 3–5 1–3 1–3 5–8 4–7 1–3 7 ICS/ISCTE–GFK/Metris 30 Jan 2022 18,361 51–55 37.4–41.4 26.9–30.9 3.0–6.0 3.0–6.0 0.6–2.6 0.5–3.1 5.0–8.0 4.7–7.7 0.4–2.4 3.5–6.5 10.5 Intercampus 30 Jan 2022 23,848? 36.6–42.6 26.7–32.7 2.4–6.4 2.5–6.5 0.1–3.6 0.2–3.7 3.8–7.8 3.5–7.5 0.2–2.6 9.9 Pitagórica 30 Jan 2022 33,157 56–60 37.5–42.5 26.7–31.7 3.0–7.0 2.5–6.5 0.9–2.9 0.8–2.8 4.5–8.5 4.5–8.5 0.7–3.7 10.8 Pitagórica 24–28 Jan 2022 760?36.6 32.9 5.1 5.2 1.4 1.2 5.4 5.2 1.7 5.43.7Pitagórica 23–26 Jan 2022 608?36.7 31.3 6.1 5.7 2.1 1.0 5.1 4.3 1.8 6.15.4CESOP–UCP 19–26 Jan 2022 2,192?36 33 6 5 2 2 6 6 2 23Pitagórica 22–25 Jan 2022 608?36.6 30.9 6.7 4.2 1.8 1.0 6.7 3.8 1.6 6.75.7Pitagórica 21–24 Jan 2022 608?36.7 31.4 5.7 4.3 1.4 1.8 7.5 3.2 1.0 6.95.3ICS/ISCTE 18–24 Jan 2022 1,003?35 33 5 6 1 2 6 6 1 52Pitagórica 20–23 Jan 2022 608?35.3 31.4 6.1 4.9 1.6 1.6 6.9 4.7 0.8 6.53.9Pitagórica 19–22 Jan 2022 608?34.1 33.5 5.5 5.1 0.8 1.6 6.6 5.3 1.2 6.20.6Pitagórica 18–21 Jan 2022 608? 33.534.5 5.7 4.7 0.8 1.6 6.5 5.7 1.2 5.91.0Aximage 16–21 Jan 2022 965? 33.834.4 6.6 4.5 1.6 3.2 8.0 2.8 1.4 3.70.6Pitagórica 17–20 Jan 2022 608?34.6 33.5 4.9 4.5 1.2 1.6 6.3 6.3 1.6 5.31.1Pitagórica 16–19 Jan 2022 608?36.5 32.9 5.0 5.0 1.0 1.9 6.3 5.2 1.5 4.73.6Pitagórica 15–18 Jan 2022 608?38.7 30.4 5.1 5.3 1.1 1.7 7.2 4.7 1.1 4.78.3CESOP–UCP12–18 Jan 20221,456?3733552265234Metris 11–18 Jan 2022 812?39.2 32.6 5.0 5.4 1.0 1.1 6.8 4.4 0.6 3.96.6Pitagórica 14–17 Jan 2022 608?39.8 30.4 4.5 5.8 1.3 1.7 7.5 4.3 1.5 3.29.4Pitagórica 13–16 Jan 2022 608?40.1 28.8 5.9 5.9 0.6 1.5 8.0 5.0 1.3 2.911.3Pitagórica 12–15 Jan 2022 608?39.6 29.6 6.0 5.1 0.9 1.7 8.1 4.7 1.5 2.810.0Pitagórica 11–14 Jan 2022 608?38.8 29.3 6.8 4.6 1.3 1.9 7.8 4.9 1.5 3.19.5Pitagórica 10–13 Jan 2022 608?38.9 29.7 6.2 4.6 1.7 2.1 6.9 5.4 1.2 3.39.2Aximage6–12 Jan 2022807?38.128.57.44.81.82.19.03.7 –4.69.6CESOP–UCP6–10 Jan 20221,246?3930652364239Intercampus 4–10 Jan 2022 615?35.3 29.3 8.5 6.0 1.1 4.3 7.1 5.6 0.6 2.26.0Pitagórica 30 Dec 2021–9 Jan 2022 600?39.6 30.0 6.4 5.1 1.5 1.8 5.7 5.1 – 4.89.6CESOP–UCP 28 Dec 2021–5 Jan 2022 1,238?38 32 6 6 2 2 5 5 1 36ICS/ISCTE 10–20 Dec 2021 901?38 31 5 6 2 2 7 4 – 57Intercampus 7–14 Dec 2021 603?35.5 26.8 6.6 4.5 1.6 3.5 8.9 6.4 0.8 5.38.7Aximage9–13 Dec 202181055.135.433.27.35.11.32.56.23.7 –5.32.2Pitagórica7–12 Dec 2021625?37.0 31.7 4.9 5.9 1.0 3.0 6.3 5.9 – 4.35.3Pitagórica10–15 Nov 2021625?38.2 32.1 5.4 5.2 0.8 1.9 7.1 4.2 – 5.16.1Intercampus 5–11 Nov 2021 612?39.0 28.1 7.7 5.3 2.0 4.4 6.3 4.2 0.2 2.810.9CESOP–UCP 29 Oct–4 Nov 2021 878?39 30 7 5 2 3 5 5 – 49ICS/ISCTE 21 Oct–1 Nov 2021 800?40 26 5 6 1 2 10 2 – 814Aximage28–31 Oct 2021803?38.524.48.84.62.02.87.74.7 –6.414.1Eurosondagem18–21 Oct 20211,028?38.127.55.15.62.52.89.25.5 –3.710.6 2021 local elections 26 Sep 2021 53.637.1 32.1 2.9 8.2 1.9 1.1 4.2 1.3 0.5 10.75.0Eurosondagem20–23 Sep 20211,032?41.527.25.05.52.02.68.95.2 –2.114.3Intercampus 14–23 Sep 2021 609?36.8 24.6 9.7 5.5 1.4 3.3 8.6 5.5 0.4 4.212.2Pitagórica 10–19 Sep 2021 609?41.3 25.1 7.1 5.5 2.0 1.8 7.1 4.7 0.4 5.016.2Intercampus 13–20 Aug 2021 612?34.7 25.1 9.1 5.4 1.6 3.5 7.5 6.1 0.2 6.89.6Eurosondagem16–19 Aug 20211,052?41.327.35.66.02.12.59.04.5 –1.714.0Eurosondagem26–29 Jul 20211,025?41.127.34.85.92.12.28.83.3 –4.513.8Intercampus 7–16 Jul 2021 607?34.8 23.4 9.0 6.7 2.8 4.5 9.0 3.1 0.6 6.111.4Aximage10–12 Jul 2021763?37.625.27.84.80.94.67.75.5 –5.912.4Eurosondagem5–8 Jul 20211,022?40.827.35.25.22.22.19.02.5 –5.713.5Intercampus 8–16 Jun 2021 608?34.6 22.4 8.9 6.0 3.1 5.2 10.1 6.4 0.6 2.712.2Eurosondagem31 May–3 Jun 20211,021?40.027.25.55.02.52.28.42.7 –6.512.8Aximage26–30 May 2021796?38.924.08.05.71.43.77.05.20.35.814.9Domp9 Apr–19 May 20211,156?35.121.78.64.42.45.310.83.60.67.613.4Eurosondagem10–13 May 20211,008?39.427.46.65.02.52.48.02.2 –6.512.0Intercampus 5–11 May 2021 611?37.9 21.7 8.3 5.5 2.9 4.8 8.3 4.2 1.3 5.116.2CESOP–UCP 3–7 May 2021 1,123?38 28 8 5 3 3 6 5 – 410Aximage22–25 Apr 202183058.838.226.19.25.70.42.77.24.90.84.812.1Intercampus 7–13 Apr 2021 609?36.2 23.3 9.4 5.2 3.1 4.8 9.4 5.0 0.4 3.212.9ICS/ISCTE 5–13 Apr 2021 802?37 29 9 7 1 2 6 1 – 88Eurosondagem5–8 Apr 20211,020?39.627.86.25.22.02.17.72.5 –6.911.8Aximage24–27 Mar 202183061.039.723.68.66.01.13.28.54.80.83.616.1Intercampus 4–10 Mar 2021 615?37.6 23.6 8.3 5.5 2.3 2.5 9.0 5.3 0.7 5.214.0Eurosondagem1–4 Mar 20211,010?39.528.27.04.52.22.57.52.1 –6.511.3Aximage17–20 Feb 202182257.437.626.57.75.80.84.06.55.71.34.111.1Intercampus 8–13 Feb 2021 609?37.6 24.7 8.2 5.8 2.7 3.1 7.3 5.6 0.7 4.312.9Eurosondagem8–11 Feb 20211,022?39.327.26.94.82.52.07.33.0 –7.012.1CESOP–UCP 24 Jan 2021 4,637?35 23 8 6 2 2 9 7 1 712Pitagórica 7–18 Jan 2021 629 ?42.6 25.7 5.4 5.4 1.6 2.3 6.8 5.0 – 5.416.9Aximage9–15 Jan 20211,18353.739.926.67.25.00.83.57.53.50.65.513.3CESOP–UCP 11–14 Jan 2021 2,001?39 28 7 6 2 2 8 5 – 311Eurosondagem11–14 Jan 20211,021?39.028.06.55.32.12.25.51.3 –10.111.0Pitagórica 29 Dec 2020–10 Jan 2021 629?41.4 28.0 7.1 5.1 1.2 2.2 5.9 4.1 – 5.113.4Intercampus 4–7 Jan 2021 603?38.0 24.1 9.1 5.7 2.3 3.6 9.1 3.8 0.2 4.113.9Pitagórica 22 Dec 2020–3 Jan 2021 629?40.9 26.3 7.3 4.1 1.4 1.8 8.4 2.8 0.2 6.914.6Pitagórica 17–27 Dec 2020 629?39.7 27.9 5.6 4.1 2.3 1.7 9.1 3.3 – 6.211.8Aximage19–22 Dec 202081255.038.525.48.55.70.34.77.73.50.55.213.1Pitagórica 17–20 Dec 2020 629?40.3 28.5 5.5 5.3 1.8 2.2 8.4 2.4 – 5.511.8Intercampus 14–18 Dec 2020 603?38.0 23.6 7.3 5.4 3.2 3.4 7.7 4.5 0.9 6.014.4Pitagórica 10–13 Dec 2020 629?41.9 26.0 6.7 5.4 1.9 2.3 8.3 1.5 – 6.015.9CESOP–UCP 4–11 Dec 2020 1,315?37 30 7 7 3 3 6 5 – 27Eurosondagem7–10 Dec 20201,020?38.829.47.25.32.52.05.21.1 –8.59.4Aximage23–26 Nov 202064758.437.223.97.95.81.06.57.52.20.67.413.3ICS/ISCTE11–25 Nov 2020802?3925872271 –914Intercampus 9–16 Nov 2020 622?37.1 24.2 7.7 4.9 4.1 5.3 7.3 3.3 1.8 4.412.9Eurosondagem2–5 Nov 20201,011?38.329.78.35.82.72.25.01.0 –7.08.6Aximage22–26 Oct 202069459.135.527.010.05.71.25.25.43.20.46.48.5Intercampus 6–11 Oct 2020 618?37.5 24.8 11.0 4.3 4.1 4.1 7.7 2.4 0.4 3.712.7Eurosondagem5–8 Oct 20201,010?38.829.08.15.53.32.04.81.3 –7.29.8ICS/ISCTE14–24 Sep 2020801?3727862472 –610Aximage12–15 Sep 202060355.137.623.98.35.61.14.86.82.61.28.113.7Eurosondagem7–10 Sep 20201,022?38.528.28.35.82.53.34.51.0 –7.910.3Intercampus 4–9 Sep 2020 614?37.4 24.3 9.9 5.1 4.3 4.1 7.4 2.1 0.4 5.013.1Intercampus 6–11 Aug 2020 601?39.6 24.8 8.5 6.1 4.4 3.2 7.9 2.8 0.0 2.714.8CESOP–UCP 13–18 Jul 2020 1,482?39 26 7 6 3 3 7 3 – 613Intercampus 8–13 Jul 2020 620?39.0 23.9 10.4 6.2 4.8 3.0 6.2 2.8 0.4 3.215.1Aximage5–8 Jul 202062455.940.426.78.56.02.12.65.22.10.16.313.7Eurosondagem29 Jun–2 Jul 20201,025?38.429.38.46.02.22.84.41.1 –7.49.1Intercampus 9–13 Jun 2020 610?40.0 24.1 9.8 6.2 4.1 3.1 6.8 1.9 0.8 3.215.9Aximage 5–8 Jun 2020 605 59.239.9 25.8 8.0 4.9 1.2 4.3 5.3 1.4 0.2 9.014.1Eurosondagem1–4 Jun 20201,021?38.029.38.05.32.73.04.11.1 –8.58.7Pitagórica 16–24 May 2020 802?44.8 24.1 6.1 5.8 2.8 3.3 6.4 1.6 – 5.120.7Eurosondagem17–20 May 20202,120?37.930.08.15.23.22.24.31.2 –7.97.9Intercampus 5–9 May 2020 620?40.3 23.3 9.0 5.9 3.6 3.6 6.8 3.2 0.7 3.617.0Eurosondagem4–7 May 20201,005?37.729.48.35.53.02.54.01.2 –8.48.3Pitagórica 15–26 Apr 2020 605?41.9 23.1 8.1 5.6 2.6 2.6 7.3 2.6 – 6.218.8Intercampus 9–14 Apr 2020 623?35.4 23.3 11.9 5.8 3.9 4.9 7.8 2.4 0.7 3.912.1Eurosondagem29 Mar–2 Apr 20201,008?37.527.29.06.02.82.43.61.2 –10.310.3Pitagórica 13–21 Mar 2020 605?41.7 25.2 8.6 5.4 2.9 3.1 8.1 2.0 – 3.116.5Intercampus 13–19 Mar 2020 611?31.4 21.9 14.5 6.1 3.6 5.9 8.6 2.3 0.2 5.59.5Eurosondagem1–5 Mar 20201,011?37.327.48.86.32.92.83.31.1 –10.19.9Aximage 14–18 Feb 2020 839 56.135.1 26.1 7.7 5.4 2.1 4.1 4.3 2.5 0.7 12.09.0Intercampus 11–17 Feb 2020 614?31.1 23.8 13.2 6.3 3.5 5.4 6.9 2.9 0.8 6.17.3Eurosondagem2–6 Feb 20201,020?37.426.79.06.53.33.12.51.10.59.910.7ICS/ISCTE22 Jan–5 Feb 2020800?3328984362165Intercampus 19–24 Jan 2020 619?32.8 25.8 11.9 6.2 1.9 6.0 6.2 2.3 1.7 5.27.0Eurosondagem5–9 Jan 20201,010?37.226.59.66.63.53.62.21.30.68.910.7Intercampus 12–17 Dec 2019 606?33.9 25.7 10.7 6.3 3.9 6.1 5.7 2.4 1.1 4.28.2Eurosondagem8–12 Dec 20191,019?37.126.99.57.13.63.51.91.10.68.710.2Intercampus 20–26 Nov 2019 604?34.9 24.9 10.8 8.1 2.9 4.8 4.8 2.9 2.7 3.210.0Eurosondagem17–21 Nov 20191,011?36.927.110.16.94.03.3 – – –11.79.8Aximage8–11 Nov 2019639?37.427.110.46.24.03.23.01.30.96.510.3Intercampus 22–28 Oct 2019 604?35.6 24.8 10.7 6.9 4.4 5.3 2.5 0.8 2.7 6.310.82019 legislative election 6 Oct 2019 48.6 36.3 27.8 9.5 6.3 4.2 3.3 1.3 1.3 1.1 8.8 8.5

Hypothetical scenarios

Paulo Rangel as PSD leader Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout Lead Pitagórica 10–15 Nov 2021 625?39.6 23.9 5.7 5.5 2.4 2.0 8.4 5.1 – 7.4 15.7

Constituency polling Madeira Unlike the rest of the country, in Madeira, the PSD and CDS–PP contested the election under a coalition called Madeira First. Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout Lead 2022 legislative election 30 Jan 2022 50.3 39.8 31.5 6.9 3.2 2.0 1.6 3.3 6.1 5.6 8.3 Intercampus 21–25 Jan 2022 603? 47.7 33.3 2.9 3.6 – – 2.3 – 10.2 14.4 2019 legislative election 6 Oct 2019 50.3 37.2 6.1 33.4 5.5 5.2 2.1 1.8 0.7 0.7 7.3 3.8

Leadership polls Preferred prime minister Poll results showing public opinion on who would make the best prime minister are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.

António Costa vs Rui Rio Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Both/ LeadCESOP–UCP 19–26 Jan 20224836––14 12CESOP–UCP12–18 Jan 20225035––15 15Aximage6–12 Jan 2022 47 21 16 5 12 26CESOP–UCP 6–10 Jan 2022 49 35 – – 16 14CESOP–UCP 28 Dec 2021–5 Jan 2022 52 33 – – 15 19Aximage9–13 Dec 2021 46 21 19 5 9 25Aximage28–31 Oct 2021 44.1 18.6 29.4 1.4 6.5 25.5Aximage10–12 Jul 2021 45 22 28 1 4 23Aximage26–30 May 2021 52 15 24 2 7 37Aximage 22–25 Apr 2021 55 17 20 2 6 38 Aximage 24–27 Mar 2021 54 18 18 4 6 36 Aximage 17–20 Feb 2021 54 20 19 3 4 34 Aximage 19–22 Dec 2020 53 19 22 2 4 34 Aximage 23–26 Nov 2020 50 18 22 4 7 32 Aximage 22–26 Oct 2020 47 17 23 4 9 30 Aximage 12–15 Sep 2020 48 17 25 4 6 31 Aximage 5–8 Jul 2020 55 17 19 5 5 38 Aximage 5–8 Jun 2020 57.3 18.2 17.3 3.2 4.0 39.1 Aximage 7–10 Mar 2020 41.1 21.3 30.8 1.9 4.9 19.8 Aximage 14–18 Feb 2020 43.8 21.8 24.7 3.9 5.8 22.0 Aximage 9–12 Jan 2020 43.6 19.5 27.5 2.8 6.6 24.1

Cabinet approval/disapproval ratings Graphical summary

Polling Poll results showing public opinion on the performance of the Government are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.