2020 United States House of Representatives election ratings

The 2020 United States House of Representatives elections were held November 3, 2020, to elect representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. The six non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and the inhabited U.S. territories were also elected. Numerous federal, state, and local elections, including the 2020 presidential election and the 2020 Senate elections, were also held on this date.

Election ratings Latest published ratings for competitive seats Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below were considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.

Most election ratings use: Tossup: no advantage Tilt (sometimes used): slight advantage Lean: clear advantage Likely: strong, but not certain advantage Safe: outcome is nearly certain

District CPVI Incumbent Last result Cook IE Sabato Daily Kos RCP DDHQ 538 ED Winner R+9 Don Young (R) 53.1% R Don Young (R) R+2 Tom O'Halleran (D) 53.8% D Tom O'Halleran (D) R+1 Ann Kirkpatrick (D) 54.7% D Ann Kirkpatrick (D) R+9 David Schweikert (R) 55.2% R David Schweikert (R) R+7 French Hill (R) 52.1% R French Hill (R) R+11 Doug LaMalfa (R) 54.9% R Doug LaMalfa (R) R+10 Tom McClintock (R) 54.1% R Tom McClintock (R) D+3 Ami Bera (D) 55.1% D Ami Bera (D) R+9 Paul Cook (R) 60.0% R Jay Obernolte (R) EVEN Josh Harder (D) 52.3% D Josh Harder (D) D+5 TJ Cox (D) 50.4% D David Valadao (R) R+8 Devin Nunes (R) 52.7% R Devin Nunes (R) EVEN Mike Garcia (R) 54.9% R Mike Garcia (R) EVEN Gil Cisneros (D) 51.6% D Young Kim (R) R+9 Ken Calvert (R) 56.5% R Ken Calvert (R) R+3 Katie Porter (D) 52.1% D Katie Porter (D) R+4 Harley Rouda (D) 53.6% D Michelle Steel (R) R+11 Vacant 51.7% R Darrell Issa (R) R+6 Scott Tipton (R) 51.5% R Lauren Boebert (R) D+2 Jason Crow (D) 54.1% D Jason Crow (D) EVEN Stephanie Murphy (D) 57.7% D Stephanie Murphy (D) D+2 Charlie Crist (D) 57.6% D Charlie Crist (D) R+6 Ross Spano (R) 53.0% R Scott Franklin (R) R+7 Vern Buchanan (R) 54.6% R Vern Buchanan (R) R+5 Brian Mast (R) 54.3% R Brian Mast (R) D+6 Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) 50.9% D Carlos Giménez (R) D+5 Donna Shalala (D) 51.8% D Maria Elvira Salazar (R) R+8 Lucy McBath (D) 50.5% D Lucy McBath (D) R+9 Rob Woodall (R) 50.1% R Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) R+2 Sean Casten (D) 53.6% D Sean Casten (D) R+3 Rodney Davis (R) 50.4% R Rodney Davis (R) R+5 Lauren Underwood (D) 52.5% D Lauren Underwood (D) D+3 Cheri Bustos (D) 62.1% D Cheri Bustos (D) R+9 Susan Brooks (R) 56.8% R Victoria Spartz (R) D+1 Abby Finkenauer (D) 51.0% D Ashley Hinson (R) D+1 Dave Loebsack (D) 54.8% D Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) R+1 Cindy Axne (D) 49.3% D Cindy Axne (D) R+11 Steve King (R) 50.3% R Randy Feenstra (R) R+10 Steve Watkins (R) 47.6% R Jake LaTurner (R) R+4 Sharice Davids (D) 53.6% D Sharice Davids (D) R+9 Andy Barr (R) 51.0% R Andy Barr (R) R+2 Jared Golden (D) 50.5% D Jared Golden (D) R+6 Justin Amash (L) 54.4% R Peter Meijer (R) R+4 Fred Upton (R) 50.2% R Fred Upton (R) R+7 Tim Walberg (R) 53.8% R Tim Walberg (R) R+4 Elissa Slotkin (D) 50.6% D Elissa Slotkin (D) R+4 Haley Stevens (D) 51.8% D Haley Stevens (D) R+5 Jim Hagedorn (R) 50.1% R Jim Hagedorn (R) R+2 Angie Craig (D) 52.7% D Angie Craig (D) D+1 Dean Phillips (D) 55.7% D Dean Phillips (D) D+26 Ilhan Omar (D) 78.2% D Ilhan Omar (D) R+12 Collin Peterson (D) 52.1% D Michelle Fischbach (R) R+4 Pete Stauber (R) 50.7% R Pete Stauber (R) R+8 Ann Wagner (R) 51.2% R Ann Wagner (R) R+11 Greg Gianforte (R) 50.9% R Matt Rosendale (R) R+4 Don Bacon (R) 51.0% R Don Bacon (R) R+2 Susie Lee (D) 51.9% D Susie Lee (D) D+3 Steven Horsford (D) 51.9% D Steven Horsford (D) R+2 Chris Pappas (D) 53.6% D Chris Pappas (D) D+2 Annie Kuster (D) 55.5% D Annie Kuster (D) R+1 Jeff Van Drew (R) 52.9% D Jeff Van Drew (R) R+2 Andy Kim (D) 50.0% D Andy Kim (D) R+3 Josh Gottheimer (D) 56.2% D Josh Gottheimer (D) R+3 Tom Malinowski (D) 51.7% D Tom Malinowski (D) R+3 Mikie Sherrill (D) 56.8% D Mikie Sherrill (D) R+6 Xochitl Torres Small (D) 50.9% D Yvette Herrell (R) R+5 Lee Zeldin (R) 51.5% R Lee Zeldin (R) R+3 Peter T. King (R) 53.1% R Andrew Garbarino (R) R+3 Max Rose (D) 53.0% D Nicole Malliotakis (R) R+1 Sean Patrick Maloney (D) 55.5% D Sean Patrick Maloney (D) R+2 Antonio Delgado (D) 51.4% D Antonio Delgado (D) R+4 Elise Stefanik (R) 56.1% R Elise Stefanik (R) R+6 Anthony Brindisi (D) 50.8% D Claudia Tenney (R) D+3 John Katko (R) 52.6% R John Katko (R) R+11 Chris Jacobs (R) 51.8% R Chris Jacobs (R) D+17 G. K. Butterfield (D) 69.8% D G. K. Butterfield (D) D+9 George Holding (R) 51.3% R Deborah Ross (D) D+8 Mark Walker (R) 56.5% R Kathy Manning (D) R+5 Richard Hudson (R) 55.3% R Richard Hudson (R) R+7 Dan Bishop (R) 50.7% R Dan Bishop (R) R+14 Vacant 59.2% R Madison Cawthorn (R) R+5 Steve Chabot (R) 51.3% R Steve Chabot (R) R+4 Mike Turner (R) 55.9% R Mike Turner (R) R+7 Troy Balderson (R) 51.4% R Troy Balderson (R) D+7 Tim Ryan (D) 61.0% D Tim Ryan (D) R+10 Kendra Horn (D) 50.7% D Stephanie Bice (R) EVEN Peter DeFazio (D) 56.0% D Peter DeFazio (D) R+1 Brian Fitzpatrick (R) 51.3% R Brian Fitzpatrick (R) D+1 Susan Wild (D) 53.5% D Susan Wild (D) R+1 Matt Cartwright (D) 54.6% D Matt Cartwright (D) R+6 Scott Perry (R) 51.3% R Scott Perry (R) R+8 Mike Kelly (R) 51.6% R Mike Kelly (R) R+3 Conor Lamb (D) 56.3% D Conor Lamb (D) R+10 Joe Cunningham (D) 50.6% D Nancy Mace (R) R+12 Joe Wilson (R) 56.3% R Joe Wilson (R) R+25 Louie Gohmert (R) 72.3% R Louie Gohmert (R) R+11 Dan Crenshaw (R) 52.8% R Dan Crenshaw (R) R+13 Van Taylor (R) 54.3% R Van Taylor (R) R+9 Ron Wright (R) 53.1% R Ron Wright (R) R+7 Lizzie Fletcher (D) 52.5% D Lizzie Fletcher (D) R+9 Michael McCaul (R) 51.1% R Michael McCaul (R) R+10 Chip Roy (R) 50.2% R Chip Roy (R) R+10 Pete Olson (R) 51.4% R Troy Nehls (R) R+1 Will Hurd (R) 49.2% R Tony Gonzales (R) R+9 Kenny Marchant (R) 50.6% R Beth Van Duyne (R) R+11 Roger Williams (R) 53.5% R Roger Williams (R) R+13 Michael Cloud (R) 60.3% R Michael Cloud (R) R+10 John Carter (R) 50.6% R John Carter (R) R+5 Colin Allred (D) 52.3% D Colin Allred (D) R+13 Ben McAdams (D) 50.1% D Burgess Owens (R) R+8 Rob Wittman (R) 55.2% R Rob Wittman (R) R+3 Elaine Luria (D) 51.1% D Elaine Luria (D) R+6 Denver Riggleman (R) 53.2% R Bob Good (R) R+6 Abigail Spanberger (D) 50.3% D Abigail Spanberger (D) D+1 Jennifer Wexton (D) 56.2% D Jennifer Wexton (D) R+4 Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) 52.7% R Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) EVEN Kim Schrier (D) 52.4% D Kim Schrier (D) EVEN Ron Kind (D) 59.7% D Ron Kind (D) Overall | | D - 229R - 17927 tossups | | D - 239R - 18115 tossups | | D - 243R - 192 | | D - 228R - 18126 tossups | | D - 209R - 18244 tossups | | D - 230R - 18223 tossups | | D - 230R - 18916 tossups | | D - 242R - 193 D - 222 13 R - 213 14 L - 0 1 District 2017 CPVI Incumbent Previous result Cook IE Sabato Daily Kos RCP DDHQ 538 ED Winner

Generic ballot polls

The following is a list of generic party ballot polls conducted in advance of the 2020 House of Representatives elections.

Polling aggregatesSource of poll aggregation Date updated Dates polled Democratic Republican LeadFiveThirtyEightFiveThirtyEight Nov 3, 2020 Until Nov 2, 2020 49.9% 42.6% +7.3%RealClearPoliticsRealClearPolitics Nov 3, 2020 Oct 25, 2020 - Nov 2, 2020 49.3% 42.5% +6.8% Average 49.6% 42.6% +7.1%

Party listings The campaign committees for the two parties—the DCCC and NRCC—publish their own lists of targeted seats.

Democratic These races were added to the DCCC's "battlefield" list in January 2020. AK-AL -- Don Young CA-25 -- Mike Garcia KS-02 -- Steven Watkins NC-08 -- Richard Hudson NJ-02 -- Jeff Van Drew TX-02 -- Dan Crenshaw

These races were added to the DCCC's "battlefield" list in August 2019. FL-16 -- Vern Buchanan IA-02 -- Dave Loebsack (D) MI-03 -- Justin Amash (L) MT-AL -- Greg Gianforte OH-12 -- Troy Balderson VA-05 -- Denver Riggleman

These races were added to the DCCC's "battlefield" list in January 2019.

AZ-06 -- David Schweikert CA-22 -- Devin Nunes CA-50 -- Duncan D. Hunter CO-03 -- Scott Tipton FL-15 -- Ross Spano FL-18 -- Brian Mast GA-07 -- Rob Woodall IA-04 -- Steve King IL-13 -- Rodney Davis IN-05 -- Susan Brooks KY-06 -- Andy Barr MI-06 -- Fred Upton MN-01 -- Jim Hagedorn MO-02 -- Ann Wagner NC-02 -- George Holding NC-09 -- Dan Bishop NC-13 -- Ted Budd NE-02 -- Don Bacon NY-01 -- Lee Zeldin NY-02 -- Peter King NY-24 -- John Katko NY-27 -- Chris Collins OH-01 -- Steve Chabot PA-01 -- Brian Fitzpatrick PA-10 -- Scott Perry PA-16 -- Mike Kelly TX-10 -- Michael McCaul TX-21 -- Chip Roy TX-22 -- Pete Olson TX-23 -- Will Hurd TX-24 -- Kenny Marchant TX-31 -- John Carter WA-03 -- Jaime Herrera Beutler

These races were added to the DCCC's "frontline" list of defensive targets in February 2019.

AZ-01 -- Tom O'Halleran CA-10 -- Josh Harder CA-21 -- TJ Cox CA-39 -- Gil Cisneros CA-45 -- Katie Porter CA-48 -- Harley Rouda CA-49 -- Mike Levin CO-06 -- Jason Crow CT-05 -- Jahana Hayes FL-26 -- Debbie Mucarsel-Powell GA-06 -- Lucy McBath IA-01 -- Abby Finkenauer IA-03 -- Cindy Axne IL-06 -- Sean Casten IL-14 -- Lauren Underwood KS-03 -- Sharice Davids ME-02 -- Jared Golden MI-08 -- Elissa Slotkin MI-11 -- Haley Stevens MN-02 -- Angie Craig NH-01 -- Chris Pappas NJ-03 -- Andy Kim NJ-05 -- Josh Gottheimer NJ-07 -- Tom Malinowski NJ-11 -- Mikie Sherrill NM-02 -- Xochitl Torres Small NV-03 -- Susie Lee NV-04 -- Steven Horsford NY-11 -- Max Rose NY-19 -- Antonio Delgado NY-22 -- Anthony Brindisi OK-05 -- Kendra Horn PA-07 -- Susan Wild PA-08 -- Matt Cartwright PA-17 -- Conor Lamb SC-01 -- Joe Cunningham TX-07 -- Lizzie Fletcher TX-32 -- Colin Allred UT-04 -- Ben McAdams VA-02 -- Elaine Luria VA-07 -- Abigail Spanberger WA-08 -- Kim Schrier

Republican These races were announced as the NRCC's offensive targets in February 2019.

AZ-01 -- Tom O'Halleran AZ-02 -- Ann Kirkpatrick CA-10 -- Josh Harder CA-21 -- TJ Cox CA-25 -- Katie Hill CA-39 -- Gil Cisneros CA-45 -- Katie Porter CA-48 -- Harley Rouda CA-49 -- Mike Levin CO-06 -- Jason Crow FL-07 -- Stephanie Murphy FL-13 -- Charlie Crist FL-26 -- Debbie Mucarsel-Powell FL-27 -- Donna Shalala GA-06 -- Lucy McBath IA-01 -- Abby Finkenauer IA-02 -- Dave Loebsack IA-03 -- Cindy Axne IL-06 -- Sean Casten IL-14 -- Lauren Underwood IL-17 -- Cheri Bustos KS-03 -- Sharice Davids ME-02 -- Jared Golden MI-08 -- Elissa Slotkin MI-11 -- Haley Stevens MN-02 -- Angie Craig MN-03 -- Dean Phillips MN-07 -- Collin Peterson NH-01 -- Chris Pappas NJ-03 -- Andy Kim NJ-05 -- Josh Gottheimer NJ-07 -- Tom Malinowski NJ-11 -- Mikie Sherrill NM-02 -- Xochitl Torres Small NV-03 -- Susie Lee NV-04 -- Steven Horsford NY-11 -- Max Rose NY-18 -- Sean Patrick Maloney NY-19 -- Antonio Delgado NY-22 -- Anthony Brindisi OK-05 -- Kendra Horn OR-04 -- Peter DeFazio PA-07 -- Susan Wild PA-08 -- Matt Cartwright PA-17 -- Conor Lamb SC-01 -- Joe Cunningham TX-07 -- Lizzie Fletcher TX-32 -- Colin Allred UT-04 -- Ben McAdams VA-02 -- Elaine Luria VA-07 -- Abigail Spanberger VA-10 -- Jennifer Wexton WA-08 -- Kim Schrier WI-03 -- Ron Kind

Notes

References