The 2024 United States Senate election in Nebraska was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Nebraska. Republican incumbent Deb Fischer was re-elected to a third term, defeating independent union leader Dan Osborn. This was the first time since 1954 when both of Nebraska's U.S. Senate seats were concurrently up for election due to a special election for Nebraska's other Senate seat.
Traditionally a safe Republican seat, the race in Nebraska was described as unusually competitive and was also potentially important for determining partisan control of the Senate after the 2024 election cycle.
Despite her win, Fischer's overall performance was the worst an incumbent Republican performed in a Nebraska Senate race since 1970. Osborn's performance was the best for an independent candidate in a Nebraska Senate race, even outperforming George W. Norris, who won as an independent in 1936 in a three way race. His performance was also the best for any challenger in a Republican-held seat in the 2024 election cycle. Osborn won four counties, of which in the concurrent presidential race two voted for Donald Trump (Thurston and Sarpy) and two voted for Kamala Harris (Douglas and Lancaster), and Fischer won all other 89 counties.
Republican primary Candidates Nominee Deb Fischer, incumbent U.S. senator (2013–present) Eliminated in primary Arron Kowalski, cattle farmer and perennial candidate
Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of April 24, 2024CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handDeb Fischer (R)$5,694,779$3,512,236$2,694,160Source: Federal Election Commission
Results
Democratic primary Due to Dan Osborn's independent candidacy, the Nebraska Democratic Party had originally not intended to field a candidate, planning to endorse Osborn on May 18. However, on May 15, Osborn stated that he would not accept the help of any political party. This led to a condemnation by state party chair Jane Kleeb, who said that Osborn had previously promised to work with them in exchange for them not running a candidate. Due to Osborn's announcement taking place the day after the state's primary, Kleeb announced that they would be looking for a write-in candidate to run under the party banner in November. However, they ultimately decided not to run a write-in candidate.
Independent Declared Dan Osborn, mechanic and former president of Bakery, Confectionery, Tobacco Workers and Grain Millers International Union Local 50G
Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of April 24, 2024CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handDan Osborn (I)$812,114$427,220$384,894Source: Federal Election Commission
Legal Marijuana NOW primary The Legal Marijuana NOW primary attracted controversy, with one candidate, Kerry Eddy, admitting that she supported independent Dan Osborn. Eddy, who was a registered Democrat until March 2024, feared that the Legal Marijuana NOW Party's nominee could pull votes away from Osborn, who supports legalizing marijuana. Eddy was recruited to run by political blogger Julia Schleck, who had outlined a plan to run a candidate who would "sweep the [Legal Marijuana NOW] primary and then take their name off the ballot and endorse Osborn, throwing their votes his way." Eddy denied that her intention was to drop out of the race after securing the nomination, though she said she would consider it.
Party chair Mark Elworth Jr. denounced Eddy's plan as "shenangians." The party instead supported Ken Peterson, who had been recruited to run by Elworth. Peterson alleged that supporters of Osborn had repeatedly urged him to drop out of the race. Osborn's campaign denied having any involvement in the Legal Marijuana NOW primary, though a pro-Osborn super PAC spent over $30,000 supporting Eddy's campaign.
Withdrew after nomination Kerry Eddy, administrative coordinator (endorsed Osborn)
Lost nomination Ken Peterson, compost facility attendant
Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of April 24, 2024CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handKerry Eddy (LMN)$16,384$922$15,462Source: Federal Election Commission
Results
Aftermath After Kerry Eddy won the May primary by a wide margin, she said she was still evaluating whether or not to drop out of the race. Complicating Eddy's plan was that if she rejected the Legal Marijuana NOW Party's nomination, the party could simply name a replacement nominee. Mark Elworth Jr. pledged to seek the party's nomination for Senate if Eddy dropped out. It was also suggested that Elworth could use the party's ballot line to nominate a Democrat.
Eddy dropped out of the race on July 30 and endorsed Osborn, though she maintained that this had not been her intention from the start. The party had until September 3 to name a replacement nominee. On August 14, the party held a convention to determine whether or not a new nominee should be named and who that nominee would be. Supporters of Eddy and Osborn were barred from participating in the convention. In response, Eddy's campaign treasurer sent a letter to party leadership arguing that they had broken the law and that if they tried to name a replacement nominee, a lawsuit could be filed.
The party ultimately did not put forward a candidate. Elworth said the party did not have the resources to fight a lawsuit and that "we don’t want to deal with it." Unnamed members of the party alleged that Osborn and Eddy's supporters had taken it over in order to ensure it would not place a candidate on the ballot. Elworth called Osborn "dishonest" and said he would be voting for incumbent Deb Fischer, who opposes legalizing marijuana.
Libertarian Party In March 2024, independent candidate Dan Osborn sought the support of the Nebraska Libertarian Party. However, he decided against this, instead running as an independent without any party's support.
Declined Dan Osborn, mechanic and former president of Bakery, Confectionery, Tobacco Workers and Grain Millers International Union Local 50G (running as an independent)
General election Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political Report October 21, 2024 Inside Elections October 18, 2024 Sabato's Crystal Ball September 25, 2024 Decision Desk HQ/The Hill October 30, 2024 Elections Daily November 4, 2024 CNalysis November 4, 2024 RealClearPolitics October 15, 2024 Split Ticket October 29, 2024 538 October 23, 2024
Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handDeb Fischer (R)$7,993,392$7,922,195$582,814Dan Osborn (I)$7,962,610$6,827,048$1,135,561Source: Federal Election Commission
Endorsements
Polling Aggregate polls Source of pollaggregationDatesadministeredDatesupdated DebFischer (R) DanOsborn (I) UndecidedMargin538538through October 31, 2024November 1, 202446.6%44.2%9.2%Fischer +2.4TheHill/DDHQthrough October 31, 2024November 1, 202448.3%47.0%4.7%Fischer +1.3Race to the WHthrough October 28, 2024October 30, 202447.0%46.0%7.0%Fischer +1.0Average47.3%45.7%6.7%Fischer +1.6 Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DebFischer (R) DanOsborn (I) UndecidedChange Research (D)October 30–31, 2024600 (LV)± 4.3% 47%47%5%Torchlight Strategies (R)October 25–28, 2024605 (LV)± 3.9%51%44%5%Economist/YouGovOctober 21–28, 20241,202 (LV)± 3.5%50%43%7%NYT/Siena CollegeOctober 23–26, 20241,194 (LV)± 3.2%48%46%5%1,194 (RV)± 3.1%46%47%6%Change Research (D)October 18–21, 2024815 (LV)–46%48%6%Torchlight Strategies (R)Torchlight Strategies (R)October 12–15, 2024625 (LV)± 3.9%51%45%4%SurveyUSAOctober 9–12, 2024563 (LV)± 4.7%44%50%6%Torchlight Strategies (R)October 5–8, 2024800 (LV)± 4.0%48%42%10%Change Research (D)October 3–8, 2024895 (LV)± 3.5%43%46%11%Impact Research (D)October 1–3, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%46%48%6%The Bullfinch GroupSeptember 27 – October 1, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%42%47%10%SurveyUSASeptember 20–23, 2024558 (LV)± 4.8%44%45%11%Global Strategy Group (D)Global Strategy Group (D)August 26–29, 2024600 (LV)–43%42%15%SurveyUSAAugust 23–27, 20241,293 (RV)± 3.6%39%38%23%YouGovJuly 31 – August 12, 2024500 (RV)± 5.2%43%41%16%Red Wave Strategy Group/Impact ResearchJuly 8–11, 2024500 (RV)–42%42%16%Global Strategy Group (D)June 3–5, 2024600 (LV)–49%36%15%Public Policy Polling (D)Public Policy Polling (D)April 24–25, 2024737 (RV)± 3.6%37%33%30%Change Research (D)Change Research (D)November 13–16, 20231,048 (LV)± 3.1%38%40%22%
Deb Fischer vs. Dan Osborn vs. Kerry Eddy Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DebFischer (R) DanOsborn (I) KerryEddy (LMN) UndecidedTorchlight Strategies (R)July 8–11, 2024698 (LV)± 3.7%50%24%9%17%
Results
Results by county +2024 United States Senate Election in NebraskaCountyDeb Fischer RepublicanDan Osborn IndependentWrite-in