This article outlines the predicted impact of Brexit, the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU) and the European Atomic Energy Community (EAEC or Euratom).
Experts predicted different effects depending on the negotiated withdrawal agreement and the EU–UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement or whether the transition period had ended before an agreement was ratified (a "no-deal" Brexit).
The effects of Brexit can impact entities inside the UK and have an impact on Gibraltar, an impact on the European Union and impact on third world countries. The land border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland is predicted to be affected by Brexit, being addressed with Northern Ireland protocol.
Academia
According to a 2016 study by Ken Mayhew, Emeritus Professor of Education and Economic Performance at Oxford University, Brexit posed the following threats to higher education: "loss of research funding from EU sources; loss of students from other EU member states; the impact on the ability of the sector to hire academic staff from EU member states; and the impact on the ability of UK students to study abroad." The UK received more from the European agencies and institutions for research than it financially contributedBetween 2007 and 2013 the UK received €8.8 billion from the EU for research while contributing €5.4 billion to the EU's research budget. with universities getting just over 10% of their research income from the European agencies and institutions.Around 11% of the research income of British universities came from the EU in 2014–2015 All funding for net beneficiaries from European agencies and institutions, including universities, was guaranteed by the British government in August 2016. Before the funding announcement, a newspaper investigation reported that some research projects were reluctant to include British researchers due to uncertainties over funding. Currently the UK is part of the European Research Area and the UK is likely to wish to remain an associated member."It is likely that the UK would wish to remain an associated member of the European Research Area, like Norway and Iceland, in order to continue participating in the EU framework programmes."
Meanwhile, by 2021, the UK's Turing Scheme doubled the number of entrants compared to the similar EU ‘Erasmus’ scheme.
Local and geographic effects Border between the UK and Ireland
The United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland have been part of the Common Travel Area since before the EU was formed. This allows their citizens freedom of movement within the area. Their membership of the EU Customs Union and Single Market means there are no customs checks or tariffs. Since 2005, the border has been essentially invisible.
After Brexit, the border between Northern Ireland (part of the UK) and the Republic of Ireland (part of the EU) became the only UK–EU land border. There was concern over this becoming a "hard border" with fewer, controlled crossing points and customs checks. This could have compromised the Good Friday Agreement that ended the Northern Ireland conflict,Brexit: the unexpected threat to peace in Northern Ireland Nic Robertson, CNN, 6 April 2018George Mitchell: UK and Ireland need to realise what's at stake in Brexit talks. Belfast Telegraph, 8 April 2018Brexit threatens Good Friday agreement, Irish PM warns. David Smith, The Guardian, 14 March 2018 and lead to violence. All involved parties agreed a hard border should be avoided. To forestall this, the EU proposed a "backstop agreement" that would have kept the UK in the Customs Union and kept Northern Ireland in some aspects of the Single Market also, until a lasting solution was found. The backstop was supported by the Irish government and many Irish nationalists, but opposed by the Democratic Unionist Party as weakening Northern Ireland's place within the United Kingdom and is regarded as the main reason why Theresa May's withdrawal agreement was never approved by the British Parliament. The UK Parliament had already rejected an earlier proposal.
After becoming Prime Minister on 24 July 2019, Boris Johnson promised to remove the backstop from the withdrawal agreement and replace it with "alternative arrangements". After further negotiations in autumn of 2019, an alternative model, the Ireland/Northern Ireland Protocol of the final Brexit withdrawal agreement was agreed between the UK and the EU.
If there were a no-deal Brexit, the UK government announced that it would not have performed customs checks at the Irish border and acknowledged that might have presented a smuggling risk. European Commission President, Jean-Claude Juncker, said if there was a no-deal Brexit the Republic of Ireland would have had to implement border checks on the EU's behalf."Jean-Claude Juncker: Border is coming in no-deal Brexit – but blame Britain, not EU". Irish Independent. 23 September 2019. In 2019, the President of Ireland signed into law the Withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union (Consequential Provisions) Act, to help deal with challenges a no-deal Brexit posed to the Republic and its citizens."Emergency Brexit law passes Oireachtas with cross-party support". The Irish Times. 14 March 2019."Which areas are covered in Brexit Omnibus Bill?". RTÉ News. 22 February 2019.
According to data published by Ireland's Central Statistics Office goods exports from Great Britain to Ireland have dropped by 20% since the United Kingdom left the single market. Meanwhile, exports to Great Britain increased by 20% in the same period.
Gibraltar
Gibraltar, a British Overseas Territory, participated in the referendum and left the EU together with the UK, although 96% of those who participated in the referendum in Gibraltar voted to remain. Gibraltar is outside the EU Customs Union and Schengen Zone, meaning it has customs and identity checks at its border with Spain.
Spain asserts a territorial claim on Gibraltar. After the referendum, Spain's Foreign Minister renewed calls for joint Spanish–British control. This was rebuffed by Gibraltar's Chief Minister, and the UK government states it would only negotiate on Gibraltar's sovereignty with the consent of its people."the UK would seek the best possible deal for Gibraltar as the UK exits the EU, and there would be no negotiation on the sovereignty of Gibraltar without the consent of its people." Theresa May, 6 April 2017,
The European Council's guidelines for withdrawal negotiations stated that UK–EU agreements made after Brexit would not apply to Gibraltar without Spain's consent."Brexit: Gibraltar angered by Spain's EU 'veto'". BBC News. 1 April 2017. Gibraltarian government minister (and former Chief Minister) Joe Bossano condemned the EU's attitude, suggesting that Spain was being offered a veto, adding "It's enough to convert me from a supporter of the European Union into a Brexiteer".'Sir Joe slams EU's ‘disgraceful’ stance on Brexit and Gibraltar ': The Gibraltar Chronicle, 2 February 2018
In late 2018, the British and Spanish governments agreed that any dispute over Gibraltar would not affect Brexit negotiations, and the British government agreed that UK–EU treaties made after Brexit would not automatically apply to Gibraltar."Spanish PM lifts effective veto on Brexit deal after Gibraltar ‘guarantee’". The Irish Times. 24 November 2018. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said that "With Brexit we all lose, especially the United Kingdom, but when it comes to Gibraltar, Spain wins."
Scotland
After the Brexit referendum, the Scottish Government – led by the Scottish National Party (SNP) – planned another independence referendum because Scotland voted to remain in the EU while England and Wales voted to leave. It had suggested this before the Brexit referendum. The First Minister of Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon, requested a referendum be held before the UK's withdrawal, but the British Prime Minister rejected this timing, but not the referendum itself. At the referendum in 2014, 55% of voters had decided to remain in the UK, but the referendum on Britain's withdrawal from the EU was held in 2016, with 62% of Scottish voters against it. In March 2017, the Scottish Parliament voted in favour of holding another independence referendum. Sturgeon called for a "phased return" of an independent Scotland back to the EU. In 2017, if Northern Ireland remained associated with the EU – for example, by remaining in the Customs Union, some analysts argued Scotland would also insist on special treatment. However, in the event, the only part of the United Kingdom which received unique treatment was Northern Ireland.
On 21 March 2018, the Scottish Parliament passed the Scottish Continuity Bill. This was passed due to stalling negotiations between the Scottish Government and the British Government on where powers within devolved policy areas should lie after Brexit. The Act allowed for all devolved policy areas to remain within the remit of the Scottish Parliament and reduces the executive power upon exit day that the UK Withdrawal Bill provides for Ministers of the Crown. The bill was referred to the UK Supreme Court, which found that it could not come into force as the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018, which received royal assent between the Scottish Parliament passing its bill and the Supreme Court's judgement, designated itself under schedule4 of the Scotland Act 1998 as unamendable by the Scottish Parliament. The bill therefore did not receive royal assent.
Border with France The French and British governments stated they remained committed to the Le Touquet Agreement, which lets UK border checks be completed in France, and vice versa (juxtaposed controls)."Calais migrants: UK and France sign new treaty". BBC News. 19 January 2018. The two governments signed the Sandhurst Treaty in January 2018, which will shorten the time taken to process migrants attempting to reach the UK from Calais, from six months to one month. The UK also announced it will invest a further £44.5 million on border security at the English Channel.
If there had been a "no-deal" Brexit, trade between the UK and France would have defaulted to World Trade Organization rules. To ensure the smooth flow of freight, France created a new "smart border" which will scan trucks' licence plates and automatically link them to shipping documents filled out online by exporters. Trucks travelling to Britain will either be waved through, or undergo checks if they carry food, plants or livestock. Gérald Darmanin, French Minister of Public Action and Accounts, said there would not be long queues in Calais."France starts Brexit trial in northern port of Calais". Radio France Internationale. 30 August 2019. France is spending €50 million on expanding port infrastructure and plans to recruit 700 more customs staff by the end of 2020."Brexit: What are EU countries doing to prepare for no deal?". BBC News. 4 September 2019.
In the first holidays after Brexit and the COVID Crisis delays occurred in Dover port. With Brexit rules, all passport need to be checked. The French Government states that France is not responsible for Brexit queue at the border, while Port of Dover boss Doug Bannister has told LBC that it's "absolutely true" that Brexit is ultimately to blame for the extreme delays at the port of Dover because passports require extra checks.
Customs between the EU and UK
In mid-2020, the UK announced plans to spend £705m to shore up UK borders in light of Brexit. This includes £235m for new staffing and IT systems, and £470m for port and inland infrastructure.
The Freight Transport Association's UK policy director Elizabeth de Jong stated that a "make do and mend" approach will be necessary while waiting for the necessary trade-related infrastructure to be built. This "mending" process is not expected to be complete until 2025, and will be inherently costly.