2024 United States Senate election in Texas

The 2024 United States Senate election in Texas was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Texas. Republican senator Ted Cruz was re-elected to a third term, defeating Democratic U.S. representative Colin Allred. The primary election took place on March 5, 2024, during Super Tuesday.

Early polling showed Cruz as a clear favorite, but polls closer to the election showed a closer race. Cruz ultimately outperformed polling and expectations and won re-election by 8.49%, improving on his 2018 margin by six points and flipping thirteen counties.

Background Texas is generally considered to be a Republican stronghold, having not elected a Democrat to any statewide office since 1994. Republicans control both U.S. Senate seats, all statewide offices, both houses of the Texas Legislature, and a large majority in Texas's U.S. House congressional delegation. Cruz was first elected in 2012, defeating Paul Sadler by 16 points and was reelected in 2018 by less than 3 points, narrowly defeating Beto O'Rourke. The close elections in 2018 prompted many electoral analysts to speculate that Texas could become a swing state, but in the 2020 and 2022 elections, Republicans increased their margins of victory. This race was considered to generally favor Cruz, but some considered the race to have the potential to become competitive.

Republican primary Candidates Nominee Ted Cruz, incumbent U.S. senator (2013–present)

Eliminated in primary Holland Gibson, retiree Rufus Lopez, attorney

Declined Dan Crenshaw, U.S. representative from (2019–present) (ran for re-election) Adam Kinzinger, former U.S. representative from (2011–2023)

Endorsements

Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handTed Cruz (R)$59,159,421$46,606,430$12,710,949Source: Federal Election Commission

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error TedCruz HollandGibson RufusLopez Other UndecidedYouGovFebruary 2–12, 2024492 (RV)± 4.4%82%7%3%9%–

Results

Democratic primary Candidates Nominee Colin Allred, U.S. representative from (2019–2025)

Eliminated in primary Meri Gomez, tax consultant Mark Gonzalez, former Nueces County district attorney (2017–2023) Roland Gutierrez, state senator from the 19th district (2021–present) Ahmad Hassan, businessman Steven Keough, law professor Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman, tech entrepreneur Carl Sherman, state representative from the 109th district (2019–2025) Thierry Tchenko, home repair nonprofit executive and former associate director of the District of Columbia Office of Policy

Disqualified Aaron Arguijo, coffee shop owner

Withdrew John Love III, former Midland city councilor and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020 (ran for U.S. House) Zachariah Manning, businessman (ran for U.S. House)

Declined Julián Castro, former U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (2014–2017), former mayor of San Antonio (2009–2014), and candidate for president of the United States in 2020 Veronica Escobar, U.S. representative for (2019–present) (ran for re-election, endorsed Allred) Scott Kelly, retired NASA astronaut and brother of Arizona Senator Mark Kelly

Endorsements

Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handColin Allred (D)$38,433,747$27,983,265$10,450,482Mark Gonzalez (D)$14,967$11,659$3,307Roland Gutierrez (D)$1,301,543$1,146,487$155,055Steven Keough (D)$27,357$27,730$0Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman (D)$30,458$29,440$1,017Carl Sherman (D)$173,565$150,616$22,949Thierry Tchenko (D)$117,067$106,606$10,461Source: Federal Election Commission

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error ColinAllred MeriGomez MarkGonzalez RolandGutierrez CarlSherman Other UndecidedUT TylerFebruary 18–26, 2024441 (LV)± 5.3%37%––22%6%2%32%YouGovFebruary 2–12, 2024354 (RV)± 5.2%52%3%5%14%2%5%18%YouGovJanuary 11–24, 20241,500 (LV)± 2.5%40%4%2%12%1%3%38%Emerson CollegeJanuary 13–15, 2024460 (RV)± 4.8%29%4%6%7%2%15%37%YouGovDecember 1–10, 2023415 (RV)± 4.8%28%3%2%7%2%10%48%YouGovOctober 5–17, 2023409 (RV)± 4.8%21%2%2%10%2%15%46%Texas Hispanic Policy FoundationMay 8–17, 20231,000 (RV)± 2.9%33%––22%–4%41%

Results

Libertarian convention Nominee Ted Brown, insurance adjuster and nominee for in 2020

Write-in candidates Declared Tracy Andrus, director of the Lee P. Brown Criminal Justice Institute at Wiley University Analisa Roche, math tutor

General election Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political Report October 1, 2024 Inside Elections October 31, 2024 Fox News October 1, 2024 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 4, 2024 Decision Desk HQ/The Hill August 26, 2024 Elections Daily November 4, 2024 CNalysis October 23, 2024 RealClearPolitics October 30, 2024 Split Ticket October 23, 2024 538 October 23, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handTed Cruz (R)$86,316,192$76,908,816$9,565,334Colin Allred (D)$80,059,292$77,557,763$2,501,528Source: Federal Election Commission

Debate + 2024 Texas U.S. Senate election debate Date Host Moderators Link Republican DemocraticKey: Participant  Absent  Not invited  Invited Withdrawn Cruz Allred1 October 15, 2024 WFAA YouTube

Polling Aggregate polls Source of pollaggregationDatesadministeredDatesupdated TedCruz (R) ColinAllred (D) UndecidedMarginFiveThirtyEightthrough November 4, 2024November 4, 202449.4%45.4%5.2%Cruz +4.0%RCPOctober 22 - November 4, 2024November 4, 202449.2%44.8%6.0%Cruz +4.4%270toWinOctober 18 - November 3, 2024November 3, 202449.0%45.2%5.8%Cruz +3.8%TheHill/DDHQthrough November 4, 2024November 4, 202449.8%46.0%4.2%Cruz +3.8%Average49.4%45.4%5.2%Cruz +4.0%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error TedCruz (R) ColinAllred (D) Other UndecidedAtlasIntelNovember 1–4, 20242,434 (LV)± 2.0%53%46%1%–Morning ConsultOctober 22–31, 20242,120 (LV)± 2.0%47%44%–9%Cygnal (R)October 26–28, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%49%45%3%3%ActiVoteOctober 21–27, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%52%48%––New York Times/Siena CollegeOctober 23–26, 20241,180 (LV)± 3.3%50%46%–4%1,180 (RV)± 3.1%49%46%–5%Rasmussen Reports (R)October 24–25, 20241,002 (LV)± 3.0%47%43%3%7%GBAO (D)October 18–23, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%46%46%4%4%Emerson CollegeOctober 18–21, 2024815 (LV)± 3.4%48%47%–5%UT TylerOctober 14–21, 2024956 (LV)± 3.0%47%45%3%6%YouGovOctober 7–17, 20241,108 (RV)± 3.5%49%45%–6%ActiVoteOctober 1–16, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%53%47% – –Morning ConsultOctober 6–15, 20242,048 (LV)–46%45%–9%YouGovOctober 2–10, 20241,091 (LV)± 3.0%51%44%4%–University of HoustonSeptember 26 – October 10, 20241,329 (LV)± 2.7%50%46%1%3%Marist CollegeOctober 3–7, 20241,186 (LV)± 3.6%51%46%–3%1,365 (RV)± 3.3%50%47%–3%Mainstreet Research/FAUOctober 2–6, 2024811 (RV)± 3.4%46%43% –11%775 (LV)± 3.4%47%44% –9%New York Times/Siena CollegeSeptember 29 – October 4, 2024617 (LV)± 4.8%48%44%–8%617 (RV)± 4.5%45%43%–12%GBAO (D)Early October 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%46%44%6%4%ActiVoteSeptember 5–30, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%52%48% – –RMG ResearchSeptember 25–27, 2024779 (LV)± 3.5%48%45%4%3%50%47%4%–Public Policy PollingSeptember 25–26, 2024759 (RV)± 3.5%47%46% –7%45%43%3%9%Emerson CollegeSeptember 22–24, 2024950 (LV)± 3.1%49%45% –6%Texas Hispanic Policy FoundationSeptember 13–18, 20241,200 (LV)± 2.8%48%45% –7%Morning ConsultSeptember 9–18, 20242,716 (LV)± 2.0%44%45% –11%CWS Research (R)September 4–9, 2024504 (LV)± 4.4%46%40%3%11%Morning ConsultAugust 30 – September 8, 20242,940 (LV)± 2.0%47% 42%–11%Emerson CollegeSeptember 3–5, 2024845 (LV)± 3.3%48%44%–8%GBAO (D)September 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%48%43%4%5%YouGovAugust 23–31, 20241,200 (RV)± 2.8%44%36%6%14%Quantus Insights (R)August 29–30, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.1%50%43%3%4%Texas Public Opinion Research/Lake Research Partners (D)August 24–29, 2024800 (RV)± 3.5%47%43%7%3%ActiVoteAugust 13–29, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%55%45%––Public Policy Polling (D)August 21–22, 2024725 (RV)± 3.6%47%45%–8%44%40%4%12%YouGovAugust 5–16, 20241,365 (LV)± 2.7%47%45%3%6%ActiVoteJune 25 – July 18, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%54%46%––Remington Research Group (R)June 29 – July 1, 2024589 (LV)± 4.0%53%43%–4%YouGovJune 20 – July 1, 20241,484 (LV)± 2.5%47%44%3%6%Manhattan InstituteJune 25–27, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%46%43%3%8%UT TylerJune 11–20, 20241,144 (RV)± 3.7%43%39%7%10%931 (LV)± 3.8%45%42%7%7%YouGovMay 31 – June 9, 20241,200 (RV)± 2.8%45%34%6%15%GBAO (D)May 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%47%40%8%5%YouGovApril 12–22, 20241,200 (RV)± 2.8%46%33%7%22%Texas LyceumApril 12–21, 2024926 (RV)± 3.2%41%31%13%15%Texas Hispanic Policy FoundationApril 5–10, 20241,600 (LV)± 2.5%46%41%4%9%Cygnal (R)April 4–6, 20241,000 (RV)± 2.9%45%36%5%14%Marist CollegeMarch 18–21, 20241,117 (RV)± 3.8%51%45%1%3%UT TylerFebruary 18–26, 20241,167 (RV)± 3.2%41%41%7%12%YouGovFebruary 2–12, 20241,200 (RV)± 3.5%46%32%9%13%National Public AffairsFebruary 6–8, 2024 807 (LV)± 3.5%44%44%–12%YouGovJanuary 11–24, 20241,145 (RV)± 2.5%48%39%4%9%Emerson CollegeJanuary 13–15, 20241,315 (RV)± 2.6%42%40%8%11%YouGovDecember 1–10, 20231,200 (RV)± 2.4%43%27%15%15%UT TylerMay 10–21, 20231,413 (RV)± 3.0%42%37%8%14%Texas Hispanic Policy FoundationMay 8–17, 20231,000 (RV)± 2.9%47%40%4%9%

Ted Cruz vs. Roland Gutierrez Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error TedCruz (R) RolandGutierrez (D) Other UndecidedYouGovFebruary 2–12, 20241,200 (RV)± 3.5%45%31%9%14%YouGovJanuary 11–24, 20241,145 (RV)± 2.5%48%38%4%10%Emerson CollegeJanuary 13–15, 20241,315 (RV)± 2.6%41%40%8%11%YouGovDecember 1–10, 20231,200 (RV)± 2.4%42%26%16%17%

Results

By county