Post-election pendulum for the 2019 New South Wales state election

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the 2019 New South Wales state election.

"Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

All margins are Coalition vs. Labor unless specified otherwise.

Margins by party Liberal/National seats (48)MarginalEast HillsWendy LindsayLIB0.5%PenrithStuart AyresLIB1.3%DubboDugald SaundersNAT2.0% v INDUpper HunterDave LayzellNAT2.5%HolsworthyMelanie GibbonsLIB3.2%GoulburnWendy TuckermanLIB3.7%HeathcoteLee EvansLIB4.9%TweedGeoff ProvestNAT4.9%WollondillyNathaniel SmithLIB5.5% v INDFairly safeRiverstoneKevin ConollyLIB6.3%Seven HillsMark TaylorLIB6.3%BegaAndrew ConstanceLIB6.9%CamdenPeter SidgreavesLIB7.5%Myall LakesStephen BromheadNAT9.1%SafeCoffs HarbourGurmesh SinghNAT10.3% v INDOatleyMark CoureLIB10.5%South CoastShelley HancockLIB10.5%ParramattaGeoff LeeLIB10.6%North ShoreFelicity WilsonLIB11.1% v INDMulgoaTanya DaviesLIB11.3%MonaroJohn BarilaroNAT11.6%KiamaGareth WardLIB12.0%TerrigalAdam CrouchLIB12.3%EppingDominic PerrottetLIB12.3%RydeVictor DominelloLIB12.3%ManlyJames GriffinLIB12.9% v GRNLane CoveAnthony RobertsLIB14.3%ClarenceChris GulaptisNAT14.4%MirandaEleni PetinosLIB14.5%OxleyMelinda PaveyNAT14.8%DrummoyneJohn SidotiLIB15.0%AlburyJustin ClancyLIB15.9%HornsbyMatt KeanLIB16.3%HawkesburyRobyn PrestonLIB17.4%BathurstPaul TooleNAT17.9%Baulkham HillsDavid ElliottLIB18.6%VaucluseGabrielle UptonLIB19.3% v GRNCronullaMark SpeakmanLIB19.6%Port MacquarieLeslie WilliamsNAT20.2%Ku-ring-gaiAlister HenskensLIB20.5%PittwaterRob StokesLIB20.8% v GRNWakehurstBrad HazzardLIB21.0%WilloughbyGladys BerejiklianLIB21.0%TamworthKevin AndersonNAT21.1% v INDCastle HillRay WilliamsLIB24.6%DavidsonJonathan O'DeaLIB25.2% v GRNCootamundraSteph CookeNAT27.1%Northern TablelandsAdam MarshallNAT32.8% Labor seats (36)MarginalLismoreJanelle SaffinALP1.3%CoogeeMarjorie O'NeillALP1.6%KogarahChris MinnsALP1.7%StrathfieldJodi McKayALP5.0%The EntranceDavid MehanALP5.2%Port StephensKate WashingtonALP5.8%Fairly safe LondonderryPrue CarALP6.5% GosfordLiesl TeschALP7.3% GranvilleJulia FinnALP7.6% MaroubraMichael DaleyALP8.5% AuburnLynda VoltzALP9.1% RockdaleSteve KamperALP9.6%SafeSwanseaYasmin CatleyALP10.6% ProspectHugh McDermottALP10.7% CharlestownJodie HarrisonALP12.4% WyongDavid HarrisALP12.5% CabramattaNick LalichALP12.9% vs IND CanterburySophie CotsisALP13.0% MaitlandJenny AitchisonALP13.2% BankstownTania MihailukALP13.8% Macquarie FieldsAnoulack ChanthivongALP14.8% Blue MountainsTrish DoyleALP14.9% HeffronRon HoenigALP15.1%Mount DruittEdmond AtallaALP16.4%LiverpoolPaul LynchALP16.7%CampbelltownGreg WarrenALP17.0%BlacktownStephen BaliALP17.7%NewcastleTim CrakanthorpALP17.7%FairfieldGuy ZangariALP17.9%ShellharbourAnna WatsonALP18.3%CessnockClayton BarrALP19.3%KeiraRyan ParkALP19.8%WollongongPaul ScullyALP21.4%Summer HillJo HaylenALP22.3%LakembaJihad DibALP22.4%WallsendSonia HorneryALP25.4%Crossbench seats (9)MurrayHelen DaltonSFF3.5% vs NATBallinaTamara SmithGRN5.4% vs NATBarwonRoy ButlerSFF6.6% vs NATBalmainJamie ParkerGRN10.0% vs ALPSydneyAlex GreenwichIND11.8% vs LIBNewtownJenny LeongGRN13.8% vs ALPOrangePhilip DonatoSFF15.2% vs NATWagga WaggaJoe McGirrIND15.5% vs NATLake MacquarieGreg PiperIND22.1% vs ALP

Notes

References