The 2024 United States Senate election in Wisconsin was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Wisconsin. Incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin won re-election to a third term by a narrow 0.85% margin, defeating Republican nominee Eric Hovde.
Third-party candidates Phil Anderson and Thomas Leager were seen as potential spoiler candidates for Hovde in a state that had voted for Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump. This was the first time that Wisconsin voted for candidates of different political parties for U.S. senator and president since Democrat Gaylord Nelson was reelected as Republican Richard Nixon carried the state in 1968. The closest of Baldwin's three Senate victories, the race held similarities to Republican Ron Johnson's narrow win in 2022, down to the percentage and raw vote margin by which the incumbents won. It was the closest Senate race in the state since 1914 and the closest election ever for this seat.
Baldwin won only about 4,000 votes more than Kamala Harris, while Hovde received about 55,000 fewer votes than Trump. While almost all of the state's counties swung Republican compared to Baldwin's 2018 victory, Baldwin improved in Waukesha and Ozaukee.
The primary election took place on August 13, 2024. The election was considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024.
Background No Republican has won this Senate seat since Joseph McCarthy in 1952. Incumbent Tammy Baldwin was first elected in 2012, defeating former governor Tommy Thompson by 6 percentage points. She was re-elected in 2018 by 11 percentage points.
The race was considered to be slightly favorable to Baldwin, despite Wisconsin's nearly even partisan lean, with most polls showing Baldwin to be the favorite to win.
Wisconsin is considered to be a purple state at the federal level, especially since there is both a Republican and a Democratic senator representing the state. Wisconsin was also a top battleground state in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. The state backed the Republican candidate in 2016, and then the Democratic candidate in 2020, both by less than 1% and only a plurality.
Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years. Republicans control both chambers of the Wisconsin Legislature and hold a supermajority in Wisconsin's U.S. House delegation. Republicans also control the state's other Senate seat. However, Democrats had seen success in statewide races, including in 2022, where incumbent governor Tony Evers overperformed expectations and won reelection to a second term, despite polls showing his Republican challenger as the slight favorite.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee Tammy Baldwin, incumbent U.S. senator
Endorsements
Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of July 24, 2024CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handTammy Baldwin (D)$36,476,704$30,268,932$6,349,965Source: Federal Election Commission
Results
Republican primary Candidates Nominee Eric Hovde, bank executive and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2012
Eliminated in primary Charles Barman, retired construction superintendent and perennial candidate Rejani Raveendran, chair of University of Wisconsin–Stevens Point College Republicans
Withdrew Stacey Klein, Trempealeau County supervisor (ran for state senate) Patrick Schaefer-Wicke, retired U.S. Army Reserve sergeant major
Declined David Clarke, former Milwaukee County sheriff (2002-2017) Mike Gallagher, U.S. representative from (2017–2024) Scott Mayer, staffing executive and former Indy Racing League driver Bryan Steil, U.S. representative from (2019–present) (ran for re-election, endorsed Hovde) Tom Tiffany, U.S. representative from (2020–present) (ran for re-election, endorsed Hovde) Scott Walker, former governor of Wisconsin (2011–2019) (endorsed Hovde)
Endorsements
Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of July 24, 2024CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handEric Hovde (R)$16,788,769$13,609,814$3,178,955Rejani Raveendran (R)$39,888$38,695$1,192Stacey Klein (R)$33,712$33,712$0Source: Federal Election Commission
Polling
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DavidClarke MikeGallagher EricHovde ScottMayer TomTiffany UndecidedPublic Policy Polling (D) December 11–12, 2023 503 (LV) ± 4.4%52%–7%6%–36%51%–10%––39%52%––6%–42%Public Policy Polling (D) June 5–6, 2023 507 (LV) ± 4.4%40%20%3%–10%27%45%26%–––29%
Results
Independent candidates Candidates Declared Phil Anderson (Disrupt The Corruption), realtor, former chair of the Wisconsin Libertarian Party, and perennial candidate Thomas Leager (America First), lobbyist
General election Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political Report October 8, 2024 Inside Elections September 26, 2024 Sabato's Crystal Ball September 25, 2024 Decision Desk HQ/The Hill September 26, 2024 Elections Daily August 9, 2024 CNalysis November 4, 2024 RealClearPolitics September 15, 2024 Split Ticket October 23, 2024 538 October 24, 2024
Post-primary endorsements
Debates + 2024 Wisconsin U.S. Senate election debate Date Host Moderators Link Democratic RepublicanKey: Participant Absent Not invited Invited Withdrawn Baldwin Hovde1 October 18, 2024 WMTV Jill Geisler YouTube
Polling Aggregate polls Source of pollaggregationDatesadministeredDatesupdated TammyBaldwin (D) EricHovde (R) UndecidedMarginFiveThirtyEightthrough November 4, 2024November 4, 202449.3%47.1%3.6%Baldwin +2.2Real Clear PoliticsOctober 16 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202448.9%47.1%4.0%Baldwin +1.8270toWinOctober 23 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202448.9%46.9%4.2%Baldwin +2.0TheHill/DDHQthrough November 4, 2024November 4, 202448.6%47.9%3.5%Baldwin +0.7Average48.9%47.3%3.8%Baldwin+1.6