2022 United States Senate election in Washington

The 2022 United States Senate election in Washington was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Washington. Murray had won election to a fifth term in 2016 with 59% of the vote.

Because Washington has a blanket primary system, parties did not nominate their own candidates to run in the general election. Instead, every candidate appeared on the same ballot, regardless of their party affiliation. The top two candidates in the August 2 nonpartisan blanket primary then advanced to the general election. Murray received 52.3% of the primary vote and advanced to face Republican Tiffany Smiley.

Although Washington has been a reliably blue state for over 30 years, many polls showed that Murray only had a narrow lead over Smiley, and some polls had Smiley within the margin of error. A couple of late polls had the two candidates tied; such polls caused most pundits to downgrade their forecast from "safe Democratic" to "likely Democratic", and Republicans believed that Smiley had a chance of pulling off an upset. Despite the predictions of a close race, Murray defeated Smiley and won re-election to a sixth term by a 14.5-point margin. Although this was a significantly larger margin of victory for Murray than what was expected, it was fairly consistent with Washington's partisan lean. Smiley conceded the following day. Despite her loss, she made significant gains in several counties, particularly in the Southwestern and Eastern parts of the state.

Following the election, Murray was elected president pro tempore for the 118th Congress, becoming the first woman to hold the role.

Primary election Democratic candidates Advanced to general Patty Murray, incumbent U.S. Senator and Assistant Democratic Leader Eliminated in primary Pano Churchill, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 Sam Cusmir Ravin Pierre, aerospace engineer and data scientist Mohammed Said, physician and perennial candidate Bryan Solstin, aerospace engineer and software developer

Withdrawn David Ishii Nicolaust Sleister Robert Kirby

Republican candidates Advanced to general Tiffany Smiley, nurse Eliminated in primary John Guenther, state employee Bill Hirt, perennial candidate

Withdrawn Bob Hagglund, IT professional Isaac Holyk, software developer

Third party and independent candidates Eliminated in primary Thor Amundson (independent), candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2018 and governor in 2020 Jon Butler (no party preference) Henry Clay Dennison (Socialist Workers), perennial candidate Dan Phan Doan (no party preference) Martin D. Hash (no party preference) Chuck Jackson (independent), candidate for U.S. Senate in 2012 and 2016 Leon Lawson (Trump Republican), candidate for governor in 2020 Naz Paul (independent), real estate developer Dave Saulibio (JFK Republican), U.S. Army veteran, candidate for Washington's 5th congressional district in 2018 and Washington's 8th congressional district in 2020

Withdrawn Mfumu Metamorphosis Mpiana Larry Hussey

Endorsements

Results

By congressional district District Murray Smiley Representative 57% 30%Suzan DelBene 54% 33%Rick Larsen 40% 37%Jaime Herrera Beutler 31% 53%Dan Newhouse 38% 46%Cathy McMorris Rodgers 53% 33%Derek Kilmer 82% 10%Pramila Jayapal 47% 40%Kim Schrier 65% 22%Adam Smith 52% 34%Marilyn Strickland

General election

Debates Two debates were held, the first on October 23 at Gonzaga University. The second was town hall-style forum on October 30 in the KIRO-TV studio in Seattle.

Murray's campaign declined an invitation to a scheduled debate on October 25 at Seattle University.

Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political Report October 18, 2022 Inside Elections July 1, 2022 Sabato's Crystal Ball October 19, 2022PoliticoNovember 3, 2022RCPOctober 30, 2022Fox NewsNovember 1, 2022DDHQSeptember 12, 2022538October 19, 2022The EconomistSeptember 7, 2022

Post-primary endorsements

Polling Aggregate polls Source of pollaggregationDatesadministeredDatesupdated PattyMurray (D) TiffanySmiley (R) UndecidedMarginReal Clear PoliticsReal Clear PoliticsOctober 14–31, 2022November 3, 202249.3%46.3%4.4%Murray +3.0FiveThirtyEightFiveThirtyEightMay 25, 2021 – November 8, 2022November 7, 202249.6%44.9%6.5%Murray +4.7270ToWin270ToWinOctober 21 – November 1, 2022November 7, 202249.5%44.5%6.0%Murray +4.3Average49.5%45.2%5.3%Murray +4.3 Graphical summary

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error PattyMurray (D) TiffanySmiley (R) Other UndecidedMoore Information Group (R)Moore Information Group (R)November 3–5, 2022500 (LV)± 4.0%47%47%–5%InsiderAdvantage (R)InsiderAdvantage (R)October 31, 2022550 (LV)± 4.2%48%46%–6%The Trafalgar Group (R)The Trafalgar Group (R)October 25–28, 20221,207 (LV)± 2.9%49%48%–2%Triton Polling & ResearchTriton Polling & ResearchOctober 26–27, 2022506 (LV)± 4.4%51%45%–4%Moore Information Group (R)Moore Information Group (R)October 20–22, 2022500 (LV)± 4.0%46%46%–8%KAConsulting (R)KAConsulting (R)October 20–22, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%48%42%4%6%co/efficient (R)co/efficient (R)October 19–20, 20221,181 (LV)± 3.0%48%45%–7%Public Policy Polling (D)Public Policy Polling (D)October 19–20, 2022782 (LV)± 3.5%52%42%–6%SurveyUSASurveyUSAOctober 14–19, 2022589 (LV)± 5.0%49%41%–10%CiviqsCiviqsOctober 15–18, 2022698 (LV)± 4.5%55%41%3%2%Emerson CollegeEmerson CollegeSeptember 29 – October 1, 2022782 (LV)± 3.4%51%42%–7%Public Policy Polling (D)Public Policy Polling (D)September 27–28, 2022770 (V)± 3.5%52%40%–8%OnMessage Inc. (R)OnMessage Inc. (R)September 20–27, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%46%42%5%6%Strategies 360Strategies 360September 22–25, 2022500 (RV)± 4.4%50%36%–14%370 (LV)± 5.1%52%40%–8%The Trafalgar Group (R)The Trafalgar Group (R)September 21–24, 20221,091 (LV)± 2.9%49%47%–5%Elway ResearchElway ResearchSeptember 12–15, 2022403 (LV)± 3.0%50%37%–12%Public Policy Polling (D)Public Policy Polling (D)September 6–7, 2022620 (V)± 3.0%48%39%–13%Moore Information Group (R)September 2022500 (LV)± 4.0%48%44%–8%The Trafalgar Group (R)The Trafalgar Group (R)August 30 – September 1, 20221,087 (LV)± 2.9%49%46%–5%McLaughlin & Associates (R)McLaughlin & Associates (R)August 15–17, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%49%43%–8%Elway ResearchElway ResearchJuly 7–11, 2022400 (RV)± 4.5%53%33%–15%SurveyUSASurveyUSAJuly 6–10, 2022596 (LV)± 5.0%51%33%–16%The Tarrance Group (R)The Tarrance Group (R)June 14–19, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%48%43%–9%Public Policy Polling (D)Public Policy Polling (D)June 1–2, 20221,039 (LV)± 3.0%51%40%–8%Public Policy Polling (D)Public Policy Polling (D)February 17–18, 2022700 (LV)± 3.7%50%41%–9%Public Policy Polling (D)Public Policy Polling (D)November 10–11, 2021909 (LV)± 3.3%50%37%–13%SurveyUSASurveyUSAOctober 25–28, 2021542 (RV)± 5.2%49%31%–20%Public Policy Polling (D)Public Policy Polling (D)May 25–26, 2021992 (LV)± 3.1%53%37%–10%

Patty Murray vs. generic Republican Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error PattyMurray (D) GenericRepublican UndecidedElway ResearchElway ResearchDecember 26–28, 2021400 (RV)± 5.0%42%39%19% Patty Murray vs. generic opponent Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error PattyMurray (D) GenericOpponent UndecidedMcLaughlin & Associates (R)August 15–17, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%44%44%12%

Results

By county

CountyPatty Murray DemocraticTiffany Smiley RepublicanWrite-in VariousMarginTotal%#%#%#%#Adams23.46%96976.25%3,1500.29%12–52.80%–2,1814,131Asotin35.27%3,18164.58%5,8240.14%13–29.31%–2,6439,018Benton33.68%25,51366.15%50,1080.17%128–32.47%–24,59575,749Chelan41.94%14,37357.87%19,8330.20%67–15.93%–5,46034,273Clallam51.60%20,78448.17%19,4010.23%943.43%1,38340,279Clark51.09%105,05848.76%100,2600.14%2982.33%4,798205,616Columbia27.17%59272.28%1,5750.55%12–45.11%–9832,179Cowlitz38.80%17,43961.07%27,4460.13%57–22.27%–10,00744,942Douglas32.73%5,27567.05%10,8060.22%36–34.32%–5,53116,117Ferry31.04%1,06068.76%2,3480.20%7–37.72%–1,2883,415Franklin31.61%7,02268.31%15,1740.08%18–36.70%–8,15222,214Garfield23.85%30775.91%9770.23%3–52.06%–6701,287Grant26.83%7,22173.03%19,6550.13%36–46.20%–12,43426,912Grays Harbor46.26%13,60053.46%15,7180.28%81–7.20%–2,11829,399Island55.00%23,68044.77%19,2750.24%10210.23%4,40543,057Jefferson70.62%14,97029.18%6,1850.21%4441.44%8,78521,199King75.05%668,69224.73%220,3070.22%1,94350.33%448,385890,942Kitsap57.51%70,93942.26%52,1340.23%27815.25%18,805123,351Kittitas39.99%8,31859.84%12,4460.16%34–19.85%–4,12820,798Klickitat41.89%4,79857.96%6,6390.16%18–16.07%–1,84111,455Lewis31.29%11,26368.50%24,6540.21%75–37.21%–13,39135,992Lincoln23.12%1,42376.63%4,7160.24%15–53.51%–3,2936,154Mason46.74%13,77752.97%15,6120.29%86–6.23%–1,83529,475Okanogan40.01%6,64459.78%9,9260.20%34–19.77%–3,28216,604Pacific48.32%5,77151.39%6,1370.29%35–3.06%–36611,943Pend Oreille29.94%2,03269.82%4,7390.24%16–39.89%–2,7076,787Pierce52.69%175,16447.02%156,3310.29%9595.66%18,833332,454San Juan72.88%8,25426.97%3,0550.15%1745.90%5,19911,326Skagit51.57%29,31648.19%27,3940.24%1393.38%1,92256,849Skamania42.07%2,62057.80%3,5990.13%8–15.72%–9796,227Snohomish57.52%184,43042.21%135,3390.27%86415.31%49,091320,633Spokane45.46%100,71954.34%120,3690.20%443–8.87%–19,650221,531Stevens26.50%6,07373.31%16,8030.19%43–46.82%–10,73022,919Thurston58.04%73,18941.69%52,5700.28%34716.35%20,619126,106Wahkiakum39.26%1,00760.47%1,5510.27%7–21.21%–5442,565Walla Walla41.38%10,03958.50%14,1920.12%29–17.12%–4,15324,260Whatcom59.32%65,95040.51%45,0380.16%18218.81%20,912111,170Whitman49.81%7,82449.96%7,8480.22%35–0.15%–2415,707Yakima35.86%22,54163.93%40,1880.22%136–28.07%–17,64762,865Total57.15%1,741,82742.63%1,299,3220.22%6,75114.52%442,5053,047,900 Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Grays Harbor (largest city: Aberdeen) Mason (largest city: Shelton) Pacific (largest city: Raymond) Whitman (largest city: Pullman)

By congressional district Murray won seven of ten congressional districts, with the remaining three going to Smiley, including one that elected a Democrat. District Murray Smiley Representative 62% 37%Suzan DelBene 59% 41%Rick Larsen46%54%Jaime Herrera Beutler (117th Congress)Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (118th Congress) 34% 66%Dan Newhouse 42% 58%Cathy McMorris Rodgers 57% 43%Derek Kilmer 87% 13%Pramila Jayapal 51% 49%Kim Schrier 71% 29%Adam Smith 57% 43%Marilyn Strickland

See also 2022 United States Senate elections

Notes

Partisan clients

References

External links Official campaign websites Patty Murray (D) for Senate Tiffany Smiley (R) for Senate