Opinion polling for the 2021 Senedd election

In the run-up to the 2021 Senedd election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. Most of the pollsters listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

The date range for these opinion polls was from the 2016 National Assembly for Wales election, held on 5 May 2016, to 6 May 2021 when the election for the newly named Senedd took place and was the first Welsh election which included 16 and 17-year-olds in the electoral franchise. After January 2020 most opinion polls also included this data set to reflect the enfranchisement in the next election.

Constituency vote The opinion polls below are gauge voting intentions for the 40 single member constituency seats elected through the plurality voting system.

Graphical summary The chart below depicts constituency vote opinion polls conducted for the Senedd election.

Poll results Pollster Client(s)Date(s)conducted Samplesize Lab Con PlaidCymru Lib Dem Abolish Reform UK Green UKIP Other Lead2021 election –39.9%26.1%20.3%4.9%1.6%1.6%1.6%0.8%3.2%13.8%YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U.1,07136%29%20%3%2%4%2%1%2%7%Savanta ComResN/A1,00236%28%18%6%3%3%––6%8%Savanta ComResN/A1,00236%27%19%5%4%4%1%0%4%9%YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U.1,14235%24%24%3%3%4%3%–3%11%OpiniumSky News2,00540%30%19%4%––––7%10%YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U.1,17432%30%23%5%3%3%2%0%1%2%YouGovWales Online1,00433%28%22%4%3%4%4%1%0%5%ICMBBC Wales1,00139%24%24%4%1%–1%2%4%15% style="border-right-style:hidden;" Andrew RT Davies officially becomes leader of the Welsh ConservativesYouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U.1,01834%26%22%4%–5%6%0%4%8%YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U.1,01338%27%20%3%–5%3%0%4%11%YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U.1,11034%29%24%3%2%4%3%0%1%5%YouGovITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U.1,02134%31%22%5%1%3%3%0%1%3%SurvationCentre for Welsh Studies1,05140%26%18%7%–8%––2%14%YouGovITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U.1,00831%38%19%4%1%4%3%0%0%7%ICMBBC Wales1,00031%31%26%6% –2%2%2%1%Tie YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,037 33% 35% 19% 5% 1% 4% 3% 0% 1% 2% style="border-right-style:hidden;" 2019 United Kingdom general election YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,020 33% 31% 18% 7% 1% 7% 3% 0% 0% 2% YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,116 32% 26% 20% 7% 1% 11% 4% 0% 0% 6% YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,136 27% 24% 21% 10% 1% 14% 4% 0% 0% 3% YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,032 25% 23% 22% 11% 1% 15% 4% 0% 0% 2% YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,071 21% 19% 24% 12% — 19% 4% – 2% 3% YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,009 25% 17% 24% 9% 1% 17% 5% 1% 0% 1% YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,025 31% 23% 24% 6% 1% 3% 1% 7% 0% 7% ICM BBC Wales 1,000 34% 23% 27% 7% – – 2% 5% 2% 7% YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,025 32% 26% 23% 8% 1% – 3% 7% 2% 6% Sky Data Cardiff University 1,014 42% 26% 22% 3% – – 2% 4% 1% 16% style="border-right-style:hidden;" Mark Drakeford officially becomes leader of Welsh Labour and First Minister YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,024 40% 25% 20% 7% 1% – 2% 5% 0% 15% YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,031 38% 28% 19% 6% 1% – 1% 6% 1% 10% style="border-right-style:hidden;" Adam Price officially becomes leader of Plaid Cymru style="border-right-style:hidden;" Paul Davies officially becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives style="border-right-style:hidden;" Gareth Bennett officially becomes leader of UKIP Wales YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,031 38% 28% 21% 6% 1% – 1% 4% 1% 10% YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,015 39% 28% 22% 4% 1% – 1% 5% 0% 11% ICM BBC Wales 1,001 40% 22% 24% 6% – – 1% 5% 2% 16% style="border-right-style:hidden;" Alyn and Deeside by-election YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,016 43% 26% 19% 5% 1% – 2% 4% 1% 17% style="border-right-style:hidden;" Jane Dodds officially becomes leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,011 43% 25% 19% 5% 1% – 1% 4% 0% 18% style="border-right-style:hidden;" 2017 United Kingdom general election YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,014 42% 26% 19% 6% 1% – 1% 5% 0% 16% YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,025 40% 27% 20% 6% 0% – 2% 5% 1% 13% YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,018 33% 33% 20% 7% 1% – 2% 3% 1% Tie YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,029 29% 30% 22% 8% 1% – 1% 8% 1% 1% YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,034 31% 25% 21% 8% 1% – 2% 12% 0% 6% YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,001 34% 24% 20% 6% 1% – 2% 13% 0% 10% YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,010 32% 19% 23% 7% 1% – 1% 16% 0% 9% YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,017 34% 18% 23% 7% 1% – 2% 15% 0% 11%2016 election – 34.7% 21.2% 20.5% 7.7% – – 2.5% 12.5% 1.0% 13.6%

Regional vote The opinion polls below are gauge voting intentions for the 20 regional list seats elected through the additional member system.

Graphical summary The chart below depicts regional vote opinion polls conducted for the next Senedd election.

Poll results Pollster Client(s)Date(s)conducted Samplesize Lab Con PlaidCymru Abolish Lib Dem Green Reform UK UKIP Other Lead2021 election –36.2%25.1%20.7%3.7%4.3%4.4%1.1%1.6%2.9%11.1%YouGovITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U.1,07131%25%21%7%4%5%2%3%1%6%Savanta ComResN/A1,00232%25%19%6%5%5%3%–6%7%Savanta ComResN/A1,00231%24%21%8%5%3%3%–5%7%YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U.1,14233%22%23%7%4%5%––6%10%OpiniumSky News2,00538%27%19%–4%5%–2%5%11%YouGovITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U.1,17431%28%22%7%4%3%1%1%2% 3%YouGovITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U.1,00429%25%24%9%2%5%3%2%3%4%ICMBBC Wales1,00137%22%22%4%3%3%–4%6%15% style="border-right-style:hidden;" Andrew RT Davies officially becomes leader of the Welsh ConservativesYouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U.1,01830%25%23%7%4%5%4%–1%5%YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U.1,01333%24%20%7%4%4%5%–2%9%YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U.1,11033%27%23%4%3%4%4%–2%6%YouGovITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U.1,02132%28%24%4%5%4%3%–1%4%SurvationCentre for Welsh Studies1,05136%23%22%–7%–10%–2%13%YouGovITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U.1,00829%37%18%3%4%3%4%0%2%8%ICMBBC Wales1,00031%29%25% –5%3%3%2%2%2% YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,037 32% 32% 19% 3% 5% – 3% 0% 5% Tie style="border-right-style:hidden;" 2019 United Kingdom general election YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,020 32% 28% 19% 2% 6% 4% 7% 0% 1% 4% YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,116 29% 26% 21% 2% 7% 4% 9% 0% 0% 3% YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,136 23% 23% 21% 4% 9% 5% 13% 1% 1% Tie YouGovITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,032 23% 22% 21% 3% 10% 5% 14% 1% 0% 1% YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,071 19% 18% 23% — 12% 4% 17% – 7% 4% YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,009 21% 12% 22% 3% 7% 8% 23% 1% 1% 1% YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,025 28% 20% 22% 3% 5% 3% 6% 5% 2% 6% ICMBBC Wales 1,000 32% 22% 25% – 6% 3% – 6% 6% 7% YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,025 29% 24% 23% 4% 6% 4% – 6% 4% 5% Sky Data Cardiff University 1,014 39% 23% 22% 7% 2% 2% – 4% 1% 16% style="border-right-style:hidden;" Mark Drakeford officially becomes leader of Welsh Labour and First Minister YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,024 36% 24% 20% 5% 4% 4% – 4% 3% 12% YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,031 37% 26% 18% 3% 6% 4% – 5% 2% 11% style="border-right-style:hidden;" Adam Price officially becomes leader of Plaid Cymru style="border-right-style:hidden;" Paul Davies officially becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives style="border-right-style:hidden;" Gareth Bennett officially becomes leader of UKIP Wales YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,031 37% 25% 22% 3% 5% 3% – 5% 1% 12% YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,015 36% 27% 21% 3% 4% 3% – 6% 1% 9% ICMBBC Wales 1,001 36% 21% 22% – 6% 2% – 8% 3% 14% style="border-right-style:hidden;" Alyn and Deeside by-election YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,016 38% 27% 18% 2% 5% 3% – 4% 2% 11% style="border-right-style:hidden;" Jane Dodds officially becomes leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,011 40% 23% 19% 3% 5% 3% – 5% 2% 17% style="border-right-style:hidden;" 2017 United Kingdom general election YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,014 38% 27% 17% 3% 6% 2% – 6% 2% 11% YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,025 37% 26% 19% 3% 5% 3% – 5% 1% 11% YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,018 31% 32% 20% 3% 6% 3% – 5% 2% 1% YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,029 27% 28% 20% 3% 6% 5% – 9% 2% 1% YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,034 28% 22% 20% 4% 7% 2% – 14% 1% 6% YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,001 29% 22% 21% 4% 6% 3% – 13% 3% 7% YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,010 29% 18% 24% 3% 6% 4% – 15% 3% 5% YouGov ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. 1,017 32% 18% 21% 4% 6% 4% – 14% 0% 11%2016 election – 31.5% 18.8% 20.8% 4.4% 6.5% 3.0% – 13.0% 2.1% 10.6%

Leadership polling At various dates in the run up to the 2021 Senedd election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge the opinions that voters hold towards political leaders. Results of these polls are displayed in this article. The polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

The date range for these opinion polls is from 2019 to 2021, with the exception of Welsh party leaders where the entire polling history is shown.

Most approval polling in Wales is carried out by YouGov/Cardiff University. A single score is then given to each figure, based on where the most common answer for a leader lies, with 0 representing Strongly Dislike and 10 representing Strongly Like.

Welsh party leaders

Mark Drakeford The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Mark Drakeford, leader of Welsh Labour and First Minister of Wales.

Date fromDate to Polling organisation/client Sample size Question wording Score (0–10) YouGov 1,174 Like/Dislike 5.7 YouGov 1,008 Like/Dislike 4 YouGov 1,021 Like/Dislike 5.1 YouGov 1,110 Like/Dislike 5.3 YouGov 1,025 Like/Dislike 3.9 YouGov 1,009 Like/Dislike 3.8 YouGov 1,032 Like/Dislike 3.5 YouGov 1,136 Like/Dislike 3.7YouGov1,116Like/Dislike3.9YouGov1,020Like/Dislike3.2YouGov1,015Like/Dislike3.8YouGov1,031Like/Dislike4

Paul Davies The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Paul Davies, the former leader of the Welsh Conservatives and the former Leader of the Opposition in Wales. He resigned as Leader of the Welsh Conservatives and Leader of the Opposition on 23 January 2021, after it was exposed that he was involved in an incident which possibly broke Welsh COVID-19 regulations in December 2020. Andrew RT Davies became the new leader of the Welsh Conservatives and Leader of the Opposition in Wales on 24 January 2021.

Date fromDate toPolling organisation/clientSample sizeQuestion wordingScore (0–10)YouGov1,008Like/Dislike4YouGov1,021Like/Dislike3.7YouGov 1,110Like/Dislike3.7YouGov1,025Like/Dislike3.5YouGov1,009Like/Dislike3YouGov1,032Like/Dislike2.8YouGov1,136Like/Dislike4YouGov1,116Like/Dislike3.4YouGov1,020Like/Dislike3.0YouGov1,031Like/Dislike3.7

Adam Price The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Adam Price, leader of Plaid Cymru.

Date fromDate toPolling organisation/clientSample sizeQuestion wordingScore (0–10)YouGov1,008Like/Dislike4.9YouGov1,021Like/Dislike4.8YouGov 1,110Like/Dislike4.7YouGov1,025Like/Dislike4.6YouGov1,009Like/Dislike3.9YouGov1,032Like/Dislike3.6YouGov1,136Like/Dislike4.2YouGov1,116Like/Dislike4.4YouGov1,020Like/Dislike4.0YouGov1,031Like/Dislike4.3

Jane Dodds The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jane Dodds, the leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats.

Date fromDate toPolling organisation/clientSample sizeQuestion wordingScore (0–10)YouGov1,009Like/Dislike3.4YouGov1,032Like/Dislike3.7YouGov1,136Like/Dislike4.2YouGov1,116Like/Dislike3.4YouGov1,020Like/Dislike3.2YouGov1,031Like/Dislike3.8

Mark Reckless The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Mark Reckless, leader of the Brexit Party.