A federal election was held in Germany on 18 September 2005 to elect the members of the 16th Bundestag. The snap election was called after the government's defeat in the North Rhine-Westphalia state election, which caused them to intentionally lose a motion of confidence to trigger an early federal election. The outgoing government was a coalition of the centre-left Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) and Alliance 90/The Greens, led by federal chancellor Gerhard Schröder. The election was originally intended for the autumn of 2006.
The opposition Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU), with its sister party the Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU), started the campaign with a strong lead over the SPD in opinion polls. The government was generally expected to suffer a major defeat and be replaced by a coalition of the CDU/CSU and the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP), with CDU leader Angela Merkel becoming chancellor. However, the CDU/CSU ultimately lost vote share compared to its 2002 result, falling to 35%. The SPD suffered losses but finished just one percentage point behind the CDU/CSU, winning 34%. Exit polls showed clearly that neither the SPD–Green nor CDU/CSU–FDP coalitions had won a majority of seats in the Bundestag. The FDP placed third on just under 10% of votes, its best result since 1990, while the Greens suffered small losses. The major stumbling block to a parliamentary majority was the new Left Party, led by Gregor Gysi and former SPD chairman Oskar Lafontaine, which won 8.7% of votes and 54 seats. The CDU/CSU and SPD both rejected cooperation with the Left Party.
Both Schröder and Merkel claimed victory, but the formation of a new government required careful negotiations, as no conventional arrangement could achieve a majority. The CDU/CSU sought talks with the Greens, but were unable to find common ground. Discussions ultimately began for a grand coalition between the CDU/CSU and SPD. On 10 October, officials from both parties indicated that negotiations had concluded successfully and that they would form a coalition government with Angela Merkel as chancellor. The Bundestag met on 22 November and Merkel was elected chancellor, with 397 votes in favour.
Background On 22 May 2005, state elections were held in North Rhine-Westphalia, the most populous state of Germany, where the SPD had led the state government continuously since 1966. The election saw the government of Minister-President Peer Steinbrück defeated. It also resulted in the opposition CDU and FDP claiming a majority in the Bundesrat, the upper house of the federal legislature. The same day, federal Chancellor Schröder and SPD Bundestag group leader Franz Müntefering announced they would seek early federal elections. They claimed the North Rhine-Westphalia result was indicative of a lack of public confidence in the federal government.
Early federal elections may only be held under two circumstances: if the Bundestag rejects a candidate for chancellor three times, or if a motion of confidence in the government fails to achieve an absolute majority in the Bundestag. In either case, the president may, at request of the chancellor, dissolve the Bundestag and order new elections. The latter method had been utilised on two occasions previously, in 1972 and 1983, by incumbent governments intentionally failing motions of confidence. Schröder became the third chancellor to do this, with a motion of confidence on 1 July failing with 151 votes in favour, 296 against, and 148 abstentions. Schröder called on SPD members to abstain from the vote, which would allow him to fall short of the required threshold. President Horst Köhler then dissolved the Bundestag and scheduled new elections.
Contesting parties The table below lists parties represented in the 15th Bundestag: Name Ideology Leadcandidate 2002 result Votes (%) Seats SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany Social democracy Gerhard Schröder 38.5% CDU/CSU CDU Christian democracy Angela Merkel 29.5% CSU Christian Social Union in Bavaria 9.0% Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens Green politics Joschka Fischer 8.6% FDP Free Democratic Party Classical liberalism Guido Westerwelle 7.4% Linke The Left Party.PDS Democratic socialism Gregor Gysi &Oskar Lafontaine 4.0%
Campaign The CDU/CSU nominated Angela Merkel for chancellor, the first time in German history that one of the two larger parties had nominated a woman for this position. The CDU presented a platform involving increasing the pace and scope of economic deregulation in Germany and pursuing cuts in income tax and public spending (many commentators have compared Merkel with Margaret Thatcher). The CDU began the campaign with a 21% lead over the SPD and confidence in Merkel's victory led the prime minister of the United Kingdom, Tony Blair, to meet with her ahead of Chancellor Schröder during a visit to Berlin in June.
The SPD had the goal of maintaining the current deregulation agenda. They added to their election program some minor corrections such as broadening the financing base of the healthcare system and the proposal of a 3% additional tax for people with annual incomes above 250,000 euro (after the governing coalition earlier in 2005 cut the highest income tax rate from 48.5% to 42%).
The Greens decided on their program in July 2005. Compared to their previous federal election program, they increased the emphasis on economics and labour-market politics. For the first time this topic came before the classical green topic of environmental politics in the program. In general, the program moved slightly to the left; including stating the necessity for changes to some existing red-green governmental policies.
The FDP announced its election program before any other party, publishing it on 24 July. It called for strong saving measures in public spending and more room for local negotiation between employees and employers, as opposed to central control by trade-union officials.
The leaders of the left wing Party of Democratic Socialism (the "PDS") agreed to let candidates of the recently founded Electoral Alternative for Labor and Social Justice (the "WASG") run on their party list, leaving open the possible future option of a merger between the two parties. In agreeing to this the WASG stipulated that the PDS rename itself as the Left Party. The WASG, with its front-runner Oskar Lafontaine (a former SPD leader), formed from breakaway elements within the SPD, angered at that party taking a "neoliberal" direction in economic reforms. The general membership had already approved this measure and awaited to hear from the PDS party convention to agree as well. If successful this could lead to a further erosion of the SPD's strength, as the PDS never made inroads in the former West Germany (it lineally succeeded the former governing communist party, Socialist Unity Party of Germany, of the former German Democratic Republic), while the WASG had its base in western Germany and could garner substantial votes there.
Two of Germany's small far-right parties, the National Democratic Party (NPD) and the German People's Union (DVU), announced that they would run on a common platform in this election, raising fears in the mainstream German political establishment that together they might succeed in gaining more than 5% of the national vote and thus in entering the Bundestag. Since German electoral law does not permit common lists of two or more parties, in practice the DVU did not enter the election, and members of that party appeared on the NPD list.
Early election polls during summer 2005 from 6 organizations showed a solid lead for the CDU/CSU with a share of the vote ranging between 41% and 43%, and the SPD trailing at between 32% and 34%. The polls further showed the FDP, a possible coalition partner for the conservatives, at between 6.5% and 8%, and the Greens, the current coalition partner for the SPD, between 6% and 8%. Most polls indicated a likely majority for a CDU/CSU-FDP coalition. As for other parties, those polls which explicitly included the PDS-WASG electoral alliance showed it above the 5% hurdle at between 7% and 8.5%. No poll showed any other parties, including far-right parties, near 5%, although far-right parties had in the past sometimes polled below their actual support due to unwillingness by voters to admit their support.
In early August, support for Angela Merkel declined considerably. Reasons for this included conflicts about the election program in and between the conservative parties (the CDU and the CSU), and arguments with their preferred coalition partner, the FDP, as well as embarrassing gaffes. At one point the media criticized Merkel for confusing net and gross income figures during a campaign speech. Following this, polls suggested that the CDU/CSU and FDP would only win 48% of votes between them, and thus would not be able to form a government. Further damage occurred when two prominent CDU/CSU candidates, Jörg Schönbohm and the CSU leader Edmund Stoiber, made insulting remarks about East Germans. These remarks not only alienated voters in Eastern Germany but also made some question the CDU/CSU's confidence in Merkel, as she herself grew up in the East.
However, polls carried out by the Süddeutsche Zeitung in late August showed the CDU/CSU/FDP bloc back up at 51% of the vote. Predictions suggested that the opposing bloc of incumbent Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's ruling Social Democrats, the Greens and the country's recently formed left-wing Left Party (PDS/WASG alliance) would win a combined total of only 46%. The leaders of the SPD and the Greens, Schröder and Fischer, as well as the Left Party's front-runner Gregor Gysi said they opposed the idea of a "red-red-green" coalition. With polls remaining so close, speculation increased that (as in the elections of 1994, 1998 and 2002) a small number of overhang seats might significantly impact the election results.
On Sunday 4 September, Schröder and Merkel met in a head-to-head debate which was broadcast by four of Germany's major private and public television networks. Although most commentators gave the initial edge to Merkel, polls soon showed that the general public disagreed and ranked Schröder the clear winner. Later analysis suggested that Merkel's support for a flat-tax proposal by Paul Kirchhof, the shadow Finance Minister, further undermined her credibility on economic affairs and gave the impression that the CDU's economic reforms would only benefit the very rich.
Midweek polls showed the SPD clawing their way upwards by a few percentage points although the combined CDU/CSU and FDP votes tended to remain 1 to 2 percentage points ahead of those for the left-wing parties combined. On the eve of the election, the CDU enjoyed a 9% lead over the SPD (42% and 33% respectively), albeit with neither party likely to have enough seats (even with their preferred coalition partners) to form a government. Merkel's personal popularity (consistently below that of her party) had climbed back up to 40%, from a low of 30% while Schröder's had reached a peak of 53% (consistently exceeding that of his party). However, polls also showed that even at this late stage, a quarter of German voters had not yet decided how to vote and that these undecided voters could decide the final result if they turned out to vote. With polls still so close, the parties broke with tradition and continued campaigning on the Saturday before the election and on election day itself. While pundits focused on the likelihood of a grand coalition, the CDU suggested that the SPD might consent to forming a coalition with the new Left Party.
Opinion polls