2020 United States House of Representatives election in Montana

The 2020 United States House of Representatives election in Montana was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the U.S. representative from Montana's at-large congressional district. The election coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections.

The incumbent, Republican Greg Gianforte, who was reelected with 50.9% of the vote in 2018, declined to run for reelection and instead ran successfully for Governor of Montana, after having lost the 2016 election to incumbent Democrat Steve Bullock.

As the Green Party was removed from the ballot, this was the first time since 1988 that there were no non-Republican or Democratic candidates running for either United States House of Representatives or United States Senate in Montana.

In the general election, Republican State Auditor Matt Rosendale defeated former state representative Kathleen Williams.

As of a result of the 2020 redistricting cycle, Montana regained its 2nd congressional district that it lost in 1993, therefore making the 2020 election the last election for the at-large district before it was eliminated.

Republican primary Candidates Nominee Matt Rosendale, Montana state auditor, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2018, candidate for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2014

Eliminated in primary Joe Dooling, rancher and chair of the Lewis and Clark County Republican Party John Evankovich, electrical contractor Debra Lamm, former chair of the Montana Republican Party and former state representative Mark McGinley, youth counselor and retired Montana National Guard veteran Corey Stapleton, secretary of state of Montana, former state senator, candidate for governor of Montana in 2012, candidate for the U.S. House in 2014

Declined Greg Gianforte, incumbent U.S. representative (running for governor) Albert Olszewski, state senator (running for governor) Denny Rehberg, former U.S. representative, nominee for U.S. Senate in 1996 and 2012, and former lieutenant governor of Montana

Endorsements

Polling Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error RussellFagg JoeDooling TimothyJohnson AlOlszewski DennyRehberg MattRosendale CoreyStapleton UndecidedMontana State University BillingsMontana State University Billings October 7–16, 2019 99 (LV) – – 1% <1% – –32% 22%44%WPA Intelligence (R)WPA Intelligence (R) February 24–26, 2019 501 (V) ± 4.4% 24% – – – – 57% – 15% – – 39% 46% – 13% 18% 10% – 51% – 18% 15% – 31% 37% – 16% 17% – – 48% 19% 16%

Results

Democratic primary Candidates Nominee Kathleen Williams, former state representative and nominee for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2018

Eliminated in primary Tom Winter, state representative

Withdrew Matt Rains, rancher and army veteran (endorsed Williams)

Declined Wilmot Collins, mayor of Helena and former 2020 candidate for U.S. Senate Rob Quist, musician, member of the Montana Arts Council, nominee for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2017

Endorsements

Polling Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error MattRains KathleenWilliams UndecidedMontana State University Billings October 7–16, 2019 40 (LV) – 6%69% 25%

Results

Other candidates Green Party Disqualified John Gibney, anti-immigration activist

Results

General election Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political Report October 2, 2020 Inside Elections October 1, 2020 Sabato's Crystal Ball October 1, 2020PoliticoSeptember 9, 2020Daily Kos September 25, 2020RCPOctober 26, 2020NiskanenJuly 26, 2020The EconomistOctober 2, 2020

Polling

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error MattRosendale (R) KathleenWilliams (D) Other /UndecidedMontana State University BillingsMontana State University Billings October 19–24, 2020 546 (LV) ± 4.2%47% 46% 6%Siena College/NYT UpshotSiena College/NYT Upshot October 18–20, 2020 758 (LV) ± 4.4%50% 46% 4%Strategies 360Strategies 360 October 15–20, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 46% 9%RMG Research/PoliticalIQRMG Research/PoliticalIQ October 15–18, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5% 47% 47% 6% 45%49% 6%49% 45% 6%Montana State University BozemanMontana State University Bozeman September 14 – October 2, 20201,609 (LV)± 3.9%48%46%6%Siena College/NYT UpshotSiena College/NYT UpshotSeptember 14–16, 2020625 (LV)± 4.8%41%44%13%Expedition Strategies (D)Expedition Strategies (D) August 22–27, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 48%51% 1%WPA Intelligence (R)WPA Intelligence (R) August 9–11, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4%51%45%4%Civiqs/Daily KosCiviqs/Daily Kos July 11–13, 2020 873 (RV) ± 4.2%49%47%5%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling July 9–10, 2020 1,224 (V) ± 2.8% 44% 44% 13%Global Strategy Group (D)Global Strategy Group (D) June 24–28, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 47% 6%University of MontanaUniversity of Montana June 17–26, 2020 517 (RV) ± 4.3%45% 37% 18%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy PollingMarch 12–13, 2020 903 (V) ± 3.3% 45% 45% 9%

University of Montana polls did not account for certain presumed withdrawals of major party candidates after their primaries in the following polls.

with Joe Dooling (R), John Evankovich (R), Timothy Johnson (R), Corey Stapleton (R) and Tom Winter (D) Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error MattRosendale (R) CoreyStapleton (R) KathleenWilliams (D) OtherUniversity of MontanaUniversity of Montana February 12–22, 2020 498 (LV) ± 4.4%35.7%19.4%35.8%9.1%

with Joe Dooling (R), Timothy Johnson (R), Matt Rains (D), Corey Stapleton (R) and Tom Winter (D) Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error MattRosendale (R) CoreyStapleton (R) KathleenWilliams (D) OtherUniversity of MontanaUniversity of Montana September 26 – October 3, 2019 303 (RV) ± 5.6%35.3%19.8%36.1%8.8%

Results

By county County Matt RosendaleRepublican Kathleen WilliamsDemocratic Margin Total Votes % Votes % Votes %Beaverhead3,81167.71%1,81732.29%1,99435.43%5,628Big Horn2,10343.96%2,68156.04%-578-12.08%4,784Blaine1,39144.90%1,70755.10%-316-10.20%3,098Broadwater3,15077.11%93522.89%2,21554.22%4,085Carbon4,46563.29%2,59036.71%1,87526.58%7,055Carter75888.76%9611.24%66277.52%854Cascade22,72457.14%17,04342.86%5,68114.29%39,767Chouteau1,82061.49%1,14038.51%68022.97%2,960Custer4,07269.67%1,77330.33%2,29939.33%5,845Daniels78677.44%22922.56%55754.88%1,015Dawson3,63975.81%1,16124.19%2,47851.63%4,800Deer Lodge2,03641.83%2,83158.17%-795-16.33%4,867Fallon1,31283.94%25116.06%1,06167.88%1,563Fergus4,71572.90%1,75327.10%2,96245.79%6,468Flathead38,42664.37%21,27135.63%17,15528.74%59,697Gallatin32,21745.56%38,50154.44%-6,284-8.89%70,718Garfield73892.13%637.87%67584.27%801Glacier1,78331.46%3,88568.54%-2,102-37.09%5,668Golden Valley41289.76%4710.24%36579.52%459Granite1,38866.48%70033.52%68832.95%2,088Hill3,80753.11%3,36146.89%4466.22%7,168Jefferson5,28865.10%2,83534.90%2,45330.20%8,123 Judith Basin99874.26%34625.74%65248.51%1,344Lake9,23956.03%7,25043.97%1,98912.06%16,489 Lewis and Clark21,04549.99%21,05050.01%-5-0.01%42,095 Liberty77671.85%30428.15%47243.70%1,080Lincoln8,58773.40%3,11226.60%5,47546.80%11,699Madison4,11367.92%1,94332.08%2,17035.83%6,056McCone93283.29%18716.71%74566.58%1,119Meagher83475.34%27324.66%56150.68%1,107Mineral1,64770.81%67929.19%96841.62%2,326Missoula26,66237.34%44,74962.66%-18,087-25.33%71,411Musselshell2,34181.85%51918.15%1,82263.71%2,860Park5,93351.52%5,58248.48%3513.05%11,515Petroleum29885.39%5114.61%24770.77%349Phillips1,86079.18%48920.82%1,37158.37%2,349Pondera1,96365.83%1,01934.17%94431.66%2,982Powder River95383.74%18516.26%76867.49%1,138Powell2,27871.70%89928.30%1,37943.41%3,177Prairie56879.33%14820.67%42058.66%716Ravalli19,11467.15%9,35032.85%9,76434.30%28,464Richland4,69481.66%1,05418.34%3,64063.33%5,748Roosevelt1,92748.33%2,06051.67%-133-3.34%3,987Rosebud2,42664.68%1,32535.32%1,10129.35%3,751Sanders5,57473.51%2,00926.49%3,56547.01%7,583Sheridan1,32866.10%68133.90%64732.21%2,009Silver Bow7,17538.40%11,51161.60%-4,336-23.20%18,686Stillwater4,36676.48%1,34323.52%3,02352.95%5,709Sweet Grass1,84375.26%60624.74%1,23750.51%2,449Teton2,55769.41%1,12730.59%1,43038.82%3,684Toole1,54673.72%55126.28%99547.45%2,097Treasure35677.39%10422.61%25254.78%460Valley2,96670.65%1,23229.35%1,73441.31%4,198Wheatland79274.51%27125.49%52149.01%1,063Wibaux49283.39%9816.61%39466.78%590Yellowstone50,14559.90%33,56340.10%16,58219.81%83,708Totals339,16956.39%262,34043.61%76,82912.77%601,509

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Park (largest city: Livingston) Hill (largest city: Havre)

Notes

Partisan clients

References

External links

(state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)

Official campaign websites Matt Rosendale (R) for Congress Kathleen Williams (D) for Congress