The 2024 United States Senate election in New Mexico was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of New Mexico. Democratic incumbent Martin Heinrich won re-election to a third term, defeating Republican financier Nella Domenici. Primary elections took place on June 4, 2024, with both Heinrich and Domenici winning their respective party's nomination unopposed. Republicans have not won a Senate race in New Mexico since Domenici's late father Pete did so in 2002.

Heinrich was first elected in 2012 by a 5.7-point margin, succeeding longtime Democratic incumbent Jeff Bingaman. In 2018, Heinrich was reelected to his second term by an overwhelming 23.6-point margin, but this was largely due to the presence of third-party candidate and former governor of the state Gary Johnson, who ran as a Libertarian and garnered over 15% of the vote. Come Election Day in 2024, Heinrich was reelected to a third term in office by 10.12%, receiving 55.1% of the statewide vote to Domenici's 44.9%. While an underperformance of his 2018 margin, his margin of victory was an overperformance of Kamala Harris' 6-point victory in the state in the concurrent presidential election.

Heinrich also held his own quite well at a county-by-county level, particularly when compared to the performances of Kamala Harris. For example, Heinrich carried the counties of Guadalupe and Cibola by 21.7% and 13.2%, respectively, which Harris carried in the concurrent presidential election by meager margins of 0.72% and 1.6%, respectively. Heinrich also carried Socorro County by around 4.8%, which was carried by Donald Trump in the presidential race by around 4%.

Democratic primary Candidates Nominee Martin Heinrich, incumbent U.S. senator

Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handMartin Heinrich (D)$9,067,125$5,341,198$4,380,901Source: Federal Election Commission

Results

Republican primary Candidates Nominee Nella Domenici, former CFO of Bridgewater Associates and daughter of former U.S. Senator Pete Domenici

Disqualified Manuel Gonzales III, former Democratic Bernalillo County Sheriff (2014–2022) and candidate for mayor of Albuquerque in 2021

Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handNella Domenici (R)$1,525,766$464,576$1,061,190Source: Federal Election Commission

Results

Independents and third-party candidates Candidates Filed paperwork Cameron Chick (Independent), businessman Ben Luna (Independence Party), businessman Jerry Rose (Independent) Tom Wakely (Green)

General election Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political Report November 9, 2023 Inside Elections November 9, 2023 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 9, 2023 Decision Desk HQ/The Hill October 30, 2024 Elections Daily May 4, 2023 CNalysis November 21, 2023 RealClearPolitics August 5, 2024 Split Ticket October 30, 2024 538 October 23, 2024

Endorsements

Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2024CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handMartin Heinrich (D)$12,502,263$10,330,618$2,826,618Nella Domenici (R)$4,777,524$4,377,754$399,769Source: Federal Election Commission

Polling Aggregate polls Source of pollaggregationDatesadministeredDatesupdated MartinHeinrich (D) NellaDomenici (R) UndecidedMarginFiveThirtyEightFiveThirtyEightthrough November 3, 2024November 4, 202448.4%38.9%12.7%Heinrich +9.5RCPRCPJune 13 – October 26, 2024November 4, 202448.7%39.3%12.0%Heinrich +9.4270ToWin270ToWinOctober 22 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202450.5%44.5%5.0%Heinrich +6.0%TheHill/DDHQTheHill/DDHQthrough November 3, 2024November 4, 202450.8%43.1%6.1%Heinrich +7.7%Average49.6%41.5%8.9%Heinrich +8.1% Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error MartinHeinrich (D) NellaDomenici (R) Other UndecidedVictory Insights (R)Victory Insights (R)November 1–3, 2024600 (LV)–50%48%–1%Research & Polling Inc.Research & Polling Inc.October 10–18, 20241,024 (LV)± 3.1%51%40%1%7%SurveyUSASurveyUSASeptember 12–18, 2024619 (LV)± 5.4%47%34%–19%Research & Polling Inc.Research & Polling Inc.September 6–13, 2024532 (LV)± 4.2%50%38%4%9%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesRedfield & Wilton StrategiesSeptember 6–9, 2024521 (LV)± 3.9%47%37%6%11%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesRedfield & Wilton Strategies August 25–28, 2024488 (LV)± 4.0%43%33%4%19%Emerson CollegeEmerson CollegeAugust 20–22, 2024965 (RV)± 3.1%49%37%4%9%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesRedfield & Wilton StrategiesAugust 12–15, 2024453 (LV)± 4.1%42%36%7%15%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesRedfield & Wilton StrategiesJuly 31 – August 3, 2024493 (LV)± 4.1%40%34%4%21%1892 Polling (R)1892 Polling (R)June 19–24, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%46%42%–10%Public Policy Polling (D)Public Policy Polling (D)June 13–14, 2024555 (V)± 4.2%47%40%–13%Red Oak Strategies (R)Red Oak Strategies (R)May 7–19, 20241,800 (LV)± 2.3%41%38%–21%1892 Polling (R)March 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%48%36%––

Results

By county CountyMartin Heinrich DemocraticNella Domenici RepublicanMarginTotal votes cast#%#%#%Bernalillo187,16361.42%117,57538.58%69,58822.84%304,738Catron61526.84%1,67673.16% -1,061 -46.31%2,291Chaves6,72331.10%14,89168.90% -8,168 -37.79%21,614Cibola4,95556.59%3,80143.41%1,15413.18%8,756Colfax2,70647.17%3,03152.83% -325 -5.66%5,737Curry4,53230.81%10,17669.19% -5,644 -38.37%14,708De Baca26831.42%58568.58% -317 -37.16%853Doña Ana46,71556.24%36,35543.76%10,36012.47%83,070Eddy5,97926.28%16,77573.72% -10,796 -47.45%22,754Grant7,80055.98%6,13344.02%1,66711.96%13,933Guadalupe1,14360.86%73539.14%40821.73%1,878Harding13832.86%28267.14% -144 -34.29%420Hidalgo78544.48%98055.52% -195 -11.05%1,765Lea4,56322.35%15,85277.65% -11,289 -55.30%20,415Lincoln3,27032.78%6,70667.22% -3,436 -34.44%9,976Los Alamos7,76164.00%4,36536.00%3,39628.01%12,126Luna3,54745.76%4,20554.24% -658 -8.49%7,752McKinley17,06467.56%8,19532.44%8,86935.11%25,259Mora1,53263.89%86636.11%66627.77%2,398Otero9,22939.48%14,14760.52% -4,918 -21.04%23,376Quay1,17432.79%2,40667.21% -1,232 -34.41%3,580Rio Arriba10,03564.50%5,52435.50%4,51128.99%15,559Roosevelt1,95129.97%4,55970.03% -2,608 -40.06%6,510San Juan19,07837.05%32,41762.95% -13,339 -25.90%51,495San Miguel7,44768.48%3,42731.52%4,02036.97%10,874Sandoval42,47354.15%35,95945.85%6,5148.31%78,432Santa Fe62,31275.53%20,18324.47%42,12951.07%82,495Sierra2,55343.85%3,26956.15% -716 -12.30%5,822Socorro3,70452.40%3,36547.60%3394.80%7,069Taos12,45776.40%3,84923.60%8,60852.79%16,306Torrance2,45434.78%4,60165.22% -2,147 -30.43%7,055Union39724.39%1,23175.61% -834 -51.23%1,628Valencia14,81045.34%17,85754.66% -3,047 -9.33%32,667Totals497,33355.06%405,97844.94%91,35510.11%903,311

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Colfax (largest municipality: Raton) Hidalgo (largest municipality: Lordsburg) Luna (largest municipality: Deming) Valencia (largest municipality: Los Lunas)

By congressional district Heinrich won all three congressional districts.http://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::ec1c76cd-f59f-445b-8f24-fbffb0e8bdf5 District Heinrich Domenici Representative 57% 43%Melanie Stansbury 52% 48%Gabe Vasquez 55% 45%Teresa Leger Fernandez

Notes

Partisan clients

References

External links Official campaign websites Cameron Chick (I) Nella Domenici (R) Martin Heinrich (D) Ben Luna (IP)