Various polling organizations have been conducting opinion polling in specific ridings in the lead up to the 2019 Canadian federal election. The results of publicized opinion polling for individual constituencies are detailed in this article.
Opinion polls have been conducted from the months following the previous general election held in October 2015, and have increased in frequency leading up to the October 2019 general election.
Given the expense of polling individual constituencies, constituencies are usually only polled if they are of some particular interest, e.g. they are thought to be marginal or facing an impending by-election. The constituencies polled are not necessarily representative of a national average swing. Under the first-past-the-post electoral system the true marginal seats, by definition, will be decisive as to the outcome of the election.
Constituency polls
Alberta Edmonton Mill Woods Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLinkLiberalCons.NDPGreenPPCOtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Mainstreet Research HTML 32.6 40.6 13.5 9.0 3.8 0.7 ±3.93 pp 623 IVR2015 Election HTML 41.2 41.0 12.7 2.2 0 1.1 ±0.0 pp 49,744 Election
Edmonton Strathcona Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLinkLiberalCons.NDPGreenPPCOtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling MethodMainstreet ResearchHTML 27.7 37.9 23.6 5.8 2.9 2.1 ±4.00 pp 623 IVR2015 ElectionHTML20.731.243.92.3-0.5 ±0.0 pp55,821Election
British Columbia Burnaby South
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method2019 By-election HTML 26.02 22.63 38.90 0 10.65 1.80 ±0.0 pp 22,746 Election Mainstreet Research HTML 26.3 22.0 38.8 0 8.7 4.2 ±3.6 pp 740 IVR Mainstreet Research HTML 35.9 29.3 27.2 6.1 1.0 0.5 ±5.12 pp 366 IVR2015 Election HTML 34 27 35 3 0 1 ±0.0 pp 46,162 Election
Fleetwood—Port Kells
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Mainstreet Research HTML39.7 38.0 7.2 7.1 5.3 0 ±3.83 pp 654 IVR2015 Election HTML 46 29 21 2 0 0 ±0.0 pp 49,302 Election
Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLinkLiberalCons.NDPGreenPPCOtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling MethodMainstreet ResearchHTML 24.4 38.5 10.1 14.6 4.5 0 ±3.47 pp 796 IVR2015 ElectionHTML30.435.230.73.5-0±0.0 pp69,939Election
Vancouver East Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLinkLiberalCons.NDPGreenPPCOtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling MethodMainstreet ResearchHTML25.3 16.3 37.0 15.9 2.0 - ±3.02 pp 624 IVR2015 ElectionHTML2811509-- ±0.0 pp59,113Election
Vancouver Granville
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Wilson-Raybould OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Mainstreet Research HTML 28.3 22.3 - - - 32.8 - ±3.94 pp 620 IVR Mainstreet Research HTML30.2 23.3 7.7 6.5 0.9 26.9 - ±4.03 pp 592 IVR Justason Marketing PDF 27 15 6 12 - 37 - ±5.1 pp 361 IVR Mainstreet Research Twitter 40.3 18.4 9.2 10.2 3.8 - 17.6 ±4.4 pp 493 IVR Mainstreet Research Twitter 31.9 17.1 7.9 10.4 3.9 28.8 - ±4.4 pp 493 IVR Mainstreet Research PDF 29.2 19.9 8.4 10.2 0 32.3 0 ±4.79 pp 418 IVR Justason Marketing PDF 24 14 23 0 0 33 7 ±7 pp 195 IVR2015 Election HTML 44 26 27 3 0 0 0 ±0.0 pp 54,010 Election
Victoria
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Mainstreet Research Twitter 27.1 17.2 22.2 28.3 3.5 0 ±4.1 pp 575 IVR2015 Election HTML 11.8 11.7 42.8 32.9 0 1 ±0.0 pp 72,136 Election
Manitoba Elmwood—Transcona Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLinkLiberalCons.NDPGreenPPCOtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling MethodMainstreet ResearchHTML 26.0 41.0 20.1 8.8 1.6 0 ±3.94 pp 617 IVR2015 ElectionHTML29.534.034.12.3-- ±0.0 pp43,268Election
Nova Scotia Central Nova Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLinkLiberalCons.NDPGreenPPCOtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling MethodMainstreet ResearchHTML41.0 38.3 8.7 11.1 0.7 - ±4.46 pp 598 IVR2015 ElectionHTML58.525.810.24.101.2±0.0 pp44,496Election
Cumberland—Colchester
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Mainstreet Research HTML39.0 35.8 4.5 15.1 1.8 - ±3.47 pp 616 IVR2015 Election HTML 63 26 53 0 0 ±0.0 pp 46,510 Election
Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Mainstreet Research HTML38.9 26.7 14.3 17.1 2.4 0.6 ±4.46pp 452 IVR2015 Election HTML 48 15 343 0 0 ±0.0 pp 48,451 Election
Ontario Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLinkLiberalCons.NDPGreenPPCOtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling MethodMainstreet ResearchHTML 31.6 39.7 8.0 15.3 3.7 - ±3.94 pp 620 IVR2015 ElectionHTML41.541.710.25.200.7±0.0 pp50,716Election
Chatham—Kent-Leamington Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLinkLiberalCons.NDPGreenPPCOtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling MethodMainstreet ResearchHTML 34.8 49.4 9.8 2.2 1.7 - ±4.58 pp 458 IVR2015 ElectionHTML37.241.718.32.600±0.0 pp52,234Election
Durham Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLinkLiberalCons.NDPGreenPPCOtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling MethodMainstreet ResearchHTML 35.4 43.1 8.5 6.7 4.3 - ±3.94 pp 620 IVR2015 ElectionHTML35.745.116.02.500.5±0.0 pp64,418Election
Guelph
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Mainstreet Research HTML44.1 21.9 6.2 23.3 3.8 - ±3.99 pp 630 IVR2015 Election HTML 49 26 12 11 0 1 ±0.0 pp 54,682 Election Kitchener Centre
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Oraclepoll Research PDF43 23 6 26 2 - ±4.4 pp 500 IVR2015 Election HTML 48.8 30.4 16.6 3.1 0 1.2 ±0.0 pp 52,572 Election
Markham—Stouffville
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Liberal Cons. NDP Green Philpott OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Mainstreet Research PDF 38.9 32.2 2.4 5.7 20.8 0 ±3.99 pp 601 IVR2015 Election HTML 49 43 6 2 0 0 ±0.0 pp 59,962 Election
Milton
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Mainstreet Research HTML 39.8 38.8 4.3 10.3 3.6 0 ±4.08 pp 588 IVR2015 Election HTML 40 45 10 2 - 1 ±0.0 pp 49,518 Election
Niagara Centre
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Mainstreet Research HTML 43.7 31.3 17.1 5.6 1.2 1.2 ±4.46 pp 482 IVR2015 Election HTML 36 30 32 2 0 1 ±0.0 pp 54,682 Election
Oakville
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Mainstreet Research HTML 48.3 35.4 3.0 8.3 3.5 0 ±3.99 pp 602 IVR2015 Election HTML 49 42 6 2 0 0.4 ±0.0 pp 64,704 Election
Ottawa Centre
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Mainstreet Research HTML45.6 22.7 15.7 11.3 2.7 - ±3.71 pp 699 IVR2015 Election HTML 42.6 14.4 38.5 2.9 0 1.0 ±0.0 pp 75,886 Election
Scarborough Centre
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Mainstreet Research HTML53.2 22.2 4.7 12.7 3.5 3.7 N/A 627 IVR2015 Election HTML 50.5 32.7 11.6 2.1 0 3.1 ±0.0 pp 45,436 Election
Simcoe North
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLinkLiberalCons.NDPGreenPPCOtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling MethodMainstreet ResearchHTML 36.1 39.6 5.5 15.3 2.1 1.5 ±3.77 pp 674 IVR2015 ElectionHTML39.843.510.54.601.5±0.0 pp57,260Election
Waterloo Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLinkLiberalCons.NDPGreenPPCOtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling MethodMainstreet ResearchHTML49.5 23.7 8.8 13.5 2.7 - ±4.00 pp 606 IVR2015 ElectionHTML49.732.314.92.900.2±0.0 pp59,849Election
Whitby
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Mainstreet Research HTML39.7 39.1 6.2 8.7 3.9 0 ±3.96 pp 611 IVR Mainstreet Research HTML 39.7 41 5 10 4 0.4 ±4.00 pp 600 IVR2015 Election HTML 45.0 42.1 10.3 2.2 0 0.4 ±0.0 pp 64,516 Election
Windsor West
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Mainstreet Research HTML 37.6 21.3 36.3 2.9 1.9 - ±4.53 pp 468 IVR2015 Election HTML 25.2 20.8 51.3 2.3 0 0.3 ±0.0 pp 86,166 Election
Prince Edward Island Charlottetown Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLinkLiberalCons.NDPGreenPPCOtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling MethodMainstreet ResearchHTML41.3 28.7 7.4 17.0 1.2 4.3 ±3.91 pp 628 IVR2015 ElectionHTML56.214.823.15.700±0.0 pp21,264Election
Quebec Beauce
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Mainstreet Research HTML 15 31 2 13 4 29 - ±3.9 pp 625 IVR Mainstreet Research HTML 19.3 33.5 1.9 5.8 3.7 33 1.8 ±3.87 pp 640 IVR Mainstreet Research HTML 13.8 37.9 5.5 4.4 2.0 34.7 1.8 ±3.95 pp 616 IVR2015 Election HTML 22 59 10 7 2 N/A 0 ±0.0 pp 56,594 Election
Beauport-Limoilou
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Mainstreet Research HTML 30 32 6 20 7 3 - ±3.9 pp 623 IVR2015 Election HTML 25.4 30.6 25.5 14.8 2.4 N/A 1.3 ±0.0 pp 51,449 Election
Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Mainstreet Research HTML 31.1 20.4 4 37.6 3.1 0.9 - ±3.66 pp 716 IVR2015 Election HTML 24.3 11.4 22.1 40.0 2.3 N/A - ±0.0 pp 53,163 Election
Beloeil-Chambly
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Mainstreet Research HTML 25 9 18 39 6 2 2 ±3.97 609 IVR Mainstreet Research HTML 35 15 8 26 9 - - - pp 825 IVR2015 Election HTML 29.3 9.3 31.1 27.7 2.3 N/A 0.4 ±0.0 pp 66,438 Election
Berthier—Maskinongé
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Mainstreet ResearchHTML16.1 14.6 35.527.8 2.3 1.8 - ±4.00 pp 600 IVR2015 ElectionHTML20.210.242.125.81.5-- ±0.0 pp55,250Election
Jonquière
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Mainstreet Research HTML 14.9 20.3 24.7 34.2 2.5 2.0 - ±3.89 pp 634 IVR Mainstreet Research HTML 27 29 13 19 6 3 - ±3.55 pp 674 IVR2015 Election HTML 28.5 16.9 29.2 23.3 1.4 - 0.8 ±0.0 pp 49,002 Election
Laurier—Sainte-Marie
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Mainstreet Research HTML 35 2 16 40 3 2 - ±3.9 pp 628 IVR Mainstreet Research HTML41.0 3.7 12.8 26.8 8.4 4.0 - ±3.95 pp 615 IVR2015 Election HTML 23 4 38 28 3 - 1 ±0.0 pp 66,438 Election
Longueuil—Saint-Hubert
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Mainstreet Research HTML35.0 9.0 5.0 28.0 17.0 3.0 - ±4 pp 556 IVR2015 Election HTML 30.0 8.7 31.2 27.3 2.5 - 0.3 ±0.0 pp 59,138 Election
Louis-Hébert
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Mainstreet Research HTML 40 19 5 19 8 4 - 3.3 pp 864 IVR2015 Election HTML 34.9 27.2 20.8 14.4 2.5 - 0.2 ±0.0 pp 61,744 Election
Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Mainstreet Research HTML 23.6 29.3 8 28.9 6 4 - ±4 pp 586 IVR2015 Election HTML 28.4 29.0 24.2 16.1 1.7 - 0.6 ±0.0 pp 50,020 Election
Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Mainstreet Research HTML 22 48 4 12 7 4 2 ±3.5 pp 625 IVR2015 Election HTML 21.5 44.0 22.1 10.7 1.8 - 0 ±0.0 pp 62,059 Election
Québec