The 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Arizona. Democratic secretary of state Katie Hobbs defeated Republican former television journalist Kari Lake. Hobbs succeeded Republican incumbent Doug Ducey who was term-limited and ineligible to seek a third term.

Primaries were held on August 2 for both parties, with Lake winning the Republican nomination and Hobbs winning the Democratic nomination, making this the first gubernatorial election in Arizona history in which both major party candidates for governor were women. With Hobbs elected the fifth female governor of Arizona, Arizona set a record for the most female governors in American history. The concurrent passage of Proposition 131, which establishes the office of lieutenant governor of Arizona, makes this the last gubernatorial election in Arizona to not have one.

Going into the election, most polling had Lake leading and analysts generally considered the race to either be a tossup or leaning Republican. Nonetheless, Hobbs won with 50.32% of the vote, becoming the first Democrat to win a gubernatorial election in Arizona since Janet Napolitano in 2006. Lake refused to concede and filed a post-election lawsuit in an attempt to overturn the results. Most of her lawsuit was rejected by Arizona's state courts, with the remaining part dismissed at trial in May 2023. The race was riddled with voting machine issues, but did not prove to show any evidence of election fraud.

This race was one of six Republican-held governorships up for election in 2022 in a state Joe Biden won in the 2020 presidential election. With a margin of 0.67%, it was the closest gubernatorial election in the state since the 1990–91 election, and the closest of the 2022 cycle. According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Hobbs won independent voters by 7 percentage points, which contributed to Lake's defeat. Background Arizona was a former longstanding Republican state; however, the state had been trending purple in recent years. In the presidential election two years prior, Democrat Joe Biden became the first Democrat to carry Arizona since 1996. In 2018 and 2020, Democrats also won the two Senate seats in the state. Additionally, Democrats took 5 of the 9 house seats in the state in the House. However, Arizona Republicans maintained control of the legislature after 2020, and won the previous governor race, maintaining a trifecta in the state.

Republican primary Candidates

Nominee Kari Lake, former KSAZ-TV news anchor

Eliminated in primary Scott Neely, businessman Karrin Taylor Robson, land developer and member of the Arizona Board of Regents Paola Tulliani-Zen, businesswoman

Withdrew Steve Gaynor, businessman and nominee for Arizona Secretary of State in 2018 Matt Salmon, former U.S. representative for and nominee for governor in 2002 (endorsed Robson) Kimberly Yee, Arizona State Treasurer (ran for reelection, won)

Declined Kirk Adams, former Chief of Staff to Governor Doug Ducey and former Speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives Andy Biggs, U.S. representative for (endorsed Salmon) Mark Brnovich, Arizona Attorney General (ran for the U.S. Senate) Steve Chucri, Maricopa County supervisor

David Schweikert, U.S. representative for (endorsed Salmon) Kelli Ward, chair of the Arizona Republican Party, former state senator and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2018

Endorsements

Polling Aggregate polls Source of pollaggregationDatesadministeredDatesupdated KariLake Karrin UndecidedMarginReal Clear PoliticsReal Clear PoliticsJuly 27 – August 1, 2022August 2, 202247.8%38.5%13.7%Lake +9.3 Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error SteveGaynor KariLake Karrin MattSalmon KimberlyYee Other UndecidedThe Trafalgar Group (R)The Trafalgar Group (R)July 30 – August 1, 20221,064 (LV)± 2.9%–49%38%3%–4%6%Emerson CollegeEmerson CollegeJuly 28–30, 2022600 (LV)± 3.9%–46%47%––3%4%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen ReportsJuly 27–28, 2022710 (LV)± 4.0%–43%34%––12%11%OH Predictive InsightsJuly 27, 2022502 (LV)± 4.4%–51%33%2%–2%12%The Trafalgar Group (R)The Trafalgar Group (R)July 25–27, 20221,071 (LV)± 2.9%–48%39%2%–4%7%Alloy Analytics (R)July 24–26, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%–45%35%2%–2%15%Public Opinion Strategies (R)July 22–24, 2022400 (LV)± 4.9%–43%43%–––14%Data Orbital (R)Data Orbital (R)July 18–20, 2022550 (LV)± 4.3%–44%32%5%–4%15%Cygnal (R)Cygnal (R)July 12–13, 2022419 (LV)± 4.8%–45%34%3%–4%14%Data Orbital (R)July 5–7, 2022550 (LV)± 4.3%–39%35%2%–6%19%HighGround Public Affairs (R)HighGround Public Affairs (R)July 2–7, 2022400 (LV)± 4.9%–39%35%––4%21%OH Predictive InsightsJune 30 – July 2, 2022515 (LV)± 4.3%–39%31%6%–3%21%–40%35%––5%21% June 28, 2022 Salmon withdraws from the race and endorses RobsonData Orbital (R)June 24–26, 2022550 (LV)± 4.3%–33%24%7%–4%33%Moore Information Group (R)June 22–23, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.1%–37%38%––11%14%The Trafalgar Group (R)The Trafalgar Group (R)June 14–16, 20221,068 (LV)± 2.9%–39%27%15%–3%17%Data Orbital (R)Data Orbital (R)June 1–3, 2022550 (LV)± 4.3%–27%23%12%–4%31%OH Predictive InsightsMay 9–16, 2022281 (LV)± 5.9%–23%21%14%–4%38%Cygnal (R)Cygnal (R)April 28–30, 2022– (LV)––47%22%7%–5%19% April 28, 2022 Gaynor withdraws from the raceThe Trafalgar Group (R)The Trafalgar Group (R)April 25–28, 20221,064 (LV)± 3.0%6%38%27%11%–4%14%OH Predictive InsightsApril 4–5, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%3%29%22%11%––36%Data Orbital (R)Data Orbital (R)April 1–3, 2022550 (LV)± 4.3%7%35%22%12%––24%HighGround Public Affairs (R)HighGround Public Affairs (R)March 26–27, 2022264 (LV)± 6.0%3%30%10%5%–6%46%Alloy Analytics (R)March 9–12, 2022433 (LV)± 4.7%4%37%15%9%––34%Data Orbital (R)March 2022– (LV)–4%43%13%15%––26%Data Orbital (R)February 11–13, 2022300 (LV)± 5.7%8%37%9%13%––34% January 15, 2022 Yee withdraws from the raceOH Predictive InsightsJanuary 11–13, 2022302 (RV)± 5.6%5%21%6%17%5%1%46%OH Predictive InsightsNovember 1–8, 2021252 (RV)± 6.2%2%28%1%11%6%1%51%OH Predictive InsightsOH Predictive InsightsSeptember 7–12, 2021311 (RV)± 5.6%5%25%1%9%6%2%53%HighGround Public Affairs (R)HighGround Public Affairs (R)May 3–5, 2021400 (LV)± 4.9%–10%0%8%4%9%66%

Karrin Taylor Robson vs. Matt Salmon Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error Karrin MattSalmon UndecidedWPA Intelligence (R)WPA Intelligence (R)May 12–13, 2021534 (LV)± 4.4%10%42%48%

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Katie Hobbs, Arizona Secretary of State

Eliminated in primary Marco López Jr., former Chief of Staff for the U.S. Customs and Border Protection and former mayor of Nogales

Withdrawn Aaron Lieberman, former state representative for the 28th district

Declined Charlene Fernandez, Minority Leader of the Arizona House of Representatives Kate Gallego, Mayor of Phoenix Ruben Gallego, U.S. representative for (running for re-election) Tom O'Halleran, U.S. representative for (running for re-election) Greg Stanton, U.S. representative for and former mayor of Phoenix (running for re-election)

Endorsements

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KatieHobbs AaronLieberman MarcoLópez Jr. Other Undecided May 27, 2022 Lieberman suspends his campaignOH Predictive InsightsMay 9–16, 2022261 (LV)± 6.1%43%9%8%–40%GQR Research (D)GQR Research (D)May 9–15, 2022400 (LV)± 4.9%49%10%20%2%19%HighGround Public Affairs (R)March 26–27, 2022234 (LV)± 6.4%27%1%9%3%57%OH Predictive InsightsJanuary 11–13, 2022274 (RV)± 5.9%46%5%9%–39%–23%27%–50%OH Predictive InsightsNovember 1–8, 2021229 (RV)± 6.5%42%6%8%–44%OH Predictive InsightsSeptember 7–12, 2021283 (RV)± 5.8%40%8%10%–42%

Results

Libertarian primary

Candidates Eliminated in primary Barry Hess, perennial candidate

Results Write-in candidate Barry Hess was unopposed in the Libertarian primary, but failed to secure the minimum number of votes to receive the nomination.

Certified write-in candidates

Anthony Camboni (independent) Steph Denny (Republican) Mikki Lutes-Burton (Libertarian) Shawn Merrill (independent) Alice Novoa (Republican) William Pounds IV (Independent-Green) Liana West (Green)

General election Lake was criticized for her denial of Joe Biden's victory in the 2020 presidential election. She had made her closeness to former president Donald Trump central to her campaign. Hobbs refused to debate Lake by arguing that would create a "circus", which became a highly discussed issue of the campaign, resulting in criticism from Republicans. On October 16, 2022, Lake twice refused to say that she would accept the result if she did not win the election: "I'm going to win the election, and I will accept that result."

According to Politico, the race was considered a toss-up. Lake called both the primaries and current round of elections "incompetent" and stated that "honest elections are needed" and that "the system we have right now does not work".

Debates and forums

Katie Hobbs refused to debate Kari Lake, though one debate-like forum was held.

2022 Arizona gubernatorial forums Date Host Moderators Link Participants Participant   Absent   Non-invitee   Invitee   Withdrawn Kari Lake Katie Hobbs 1 September 7, 2022 Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry Danny SeidenYouTube 2 October 23, 2022 Clean Elections Mike BroomheadYouTube

Predictions Source Ranking As of The Cook Political Report March 4, 2022Inside Elections March 4, 2022 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 7, 2022PoliticoApril 1, 2022 RCPJanuary 10, 2022Fox News October 25, 2022538October 26, 2022Elections DailyNovember 7, 2022

Post-primary endorsements

Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2022CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handKatie Hobbs (D)$14,796,583$14,703,952$527,969Kari Lake (R)$15,855,394$15,381,454$1,592,293Source: SeeTheMoney

Polling Aggregate polls Source of pollaggregationDatesadministeredDatesupdated KariLake (R) KatieHobbs (D) UndecidedMarginRealClearPoliticsRealClearPoliticsNovember 1–7, 2022November 8, 202250.8%47.3%1.9%Lake +3.5FiveThirtyEightFiveThirtyEightOctober 17 – November 8, 2022November 8, 202249.5%47.1%3.4%Lake +2.4270ToWin270ToWinNovember 3–7, 2022November 8, 202248.9%46.9%4.2%Lake +2.0Average49.7%47.1%3.2%Lake +2.6