The 2024 United States Senate election in Missouri was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Missouri. Republican incumbent Josh Hawley was re-elected to a second term, defeating Democratic nominee Lucas Kunce. Primary elections took place on August 6, 2024.

Hawley was the favorite in the polls throughout the cycle due to the state's Republican lean, though some polls showed a close race. Kunce, who had previously run in 2022, losing narrowly in the Democratic primaries to Trudy Busch Valentine, was seen as a strong candidate who outpaced Hawley in fundraising for much of the race and outspent him in advertising.

Hawley ultimately won re-election with a comfortable 55.57% of the vote to Kunce's 41.84%, improving his 2018 margin by around 8 points. Despite his loss, Kunce outperformed Vice President Kamala Harris by 2 points, while Hawley underperformed Donald Trump by nearly 3 points, making the race somewhat closer than the concurrent presidential election.

Background From 1904 to 2004, Missouri's electoral votes always went to the winner of the presidential race, with only one exception: in 1956, during the landslide re-election of President Dwight Eisenhower, Missouri went to Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson. The state's accuracy in voting with the national consensus includes the highly competitive elections of 1960, 1976, and 2000.

Missouri is no longer thought of as a perennial swing state, and is today considered to be a strongly red state. Since 1960, the only three Democrats it has backed have been Southerners: Lyndon B. Johnson, Jimmy Carter, and Bill Clinton. In 2008, Missouri narrowly voted for the losing candidate, Republican John McCain, despite a sizable electoral college win for Democrat Barack Obama. In 2012, Missouri favored losing candidate Mitt Romney by nearly 10 percentage points, despite another significant victory for Obama in the rest of the country. In 2016 and 2020, Missouri again voted strongly Republican, this time for Donald Trump by over 15 points, despite Trump losing the latter election. This marked the third time in four presidential elections that Missouri supported a losing Republican. Missouri has not supported any Democratic candidate since Bill Clinton in 1996.

In more recent years, Republicans have experienced significant electoral success in the state. In 2016, the Republican Party secured victories in key statewide positions, including Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, and Treasurer. Building on this momentum, in 2022, Scott Fitzpatrick successfully won the position of Auditor, a seat previously held by Democrat Nicole Galloway. Notably, Nicole Galloway remains the last Democrat to have been elected to a statewide position in the state.

The most recent Democrat to secure election to the Senate from Missouri was Claire McCaskill back in 2012. She sought a third term in 2018, facing off against Josh Hawley, but was ultimately defeated by a margin of 5.8%.

Most pollsters categorized this race as safe for the Republican Party.

Republican primary Candidates Nominee Josh Hawley, incumbent U.S. senator

Endorsements

Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of July 31, 2024CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handJosh Hawley (R)$22,492,767$17,267,201$5,701,081Source: Federal Election Commission

Results

Democratic primary Candidates Nominee Lucas Kunce, nonprofit executive and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022

Eliminated in primary Mita Biswas December Harmon, member of the Columbia Police Review Board Karla May, state senator (2019–present)

Withdrawn Wesley Bell, St. Louis County prosecuting attorney (ran for U.S. House)

Endorsements

Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of July 31, 2024CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handDecember Harmon (D)$16,524$15,578$945Lucas Kunce (D)$11,193,778$6,959,981$4,241,078Karla May (D)$53,962$48,314$5,647Source: Federal Election Commission

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error WesleyBell MitaBiswas DecemberHarmon LucasKunce KarlaMay UndecidedRemington Research Group (R)July 10–11, 2024600 (LV)± 3.8%–1%4%39%10%46%Remington Research GroupJuly 12–13, 2023661 (LV)± 3.9%24%––31%10%35%

Results

Libertarian primary Declared W. C. Young

Results

Other candidates Declared Nathan Kline (Green), executive assistant Jared Young (Better Party), payroll services executive

Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handJared Young (BP)$364,377$253,727$110,650Source: Federal Election Commission

General election The two candidates participated in two debates—one alongside third-party opponents and a second one-on-one televised event. Both debates were marked by frequent attacks. Hawley criticized Kunce over an accidental shooting involving a reporter at a campaign event and his refusal to endorse a presidential candidate. Kunce countered by attacking Hawley's involvement in objecting to the certification of the 2020 election and his opposition to abortion rights. 2024 Missouri Amendment 3, which was concurrently on the ballot, passed and legalized abortion in Missouri.

Despite the contentious exchanges, the candidates found some common ground on border security and opposition to deploying U.S. troops to the Middle East.

Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political Report November 9, 2023 Inside Elections November 9, 2023 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 9, 2023 Decision Desk HQ/The Hill August 26, 2024 Elections Daily May 4, 2023 CNalysis November 21, 2023 RealClearPolitics August 5, 2024 Split Ticket October 23, 2024 538 October 26, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

Polling Aggregate polls Source of pollaggregationDatesadministeredDatesupdated JoshHawley (R) LucasKunce (D) UndecidedMarginFiveThirtyEightFiveThirtyEightthrough November 3, 2024November 4, 202451.3%41.8%6.9%Hawley +9.5%TheHill/DDHQTheHill/DDHQthrough November 3, 2024November 4, 202452.6%44.5%2.9%Hawley +8.1%Average52.0%43.2%4.8%Hawley +8.8% Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoshHawley (R) LucasKunce (D) Other UndecidedResearch Co.Research Co.November 2–3, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%52%41%3%4%ActiVoteActiVoteOctober 6–27, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%56%44%––GQR (D)GQR (D)October 23–26, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%49%46%–5%Emerson CollegeEmerson CollegeOctober 22–23, 2024620 (LV)± 3.9%51%41%2%7%ActiVoteActiVoteSeptember 1 – October 1, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%54%46%––Emerson CollegeEmerson CollegeSeptember 12–13, 2024850 (LV)± 3.3%51%40%1%8%Change ResearchChange ResearchSeptember 11–13, 20241,237 (RV)± 3.1%46%41%4%9%GQR Research (D)GQR Research (D)September 6–12, 2024645 (LV)± 3.9%50%46%2%2%52%48%––Remington Research Group (R)Remington Research Group (R)September 4–5, 2024816 (LV)–52%37%–11%YouGov/Saint Louis UniversityYouGov/Saint Louis UniversityAugust 8–16, 2024900 (LV)± 3.8%53%42%–4%Emerson CollegeEmerson CollegeJune 17–19, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%47%38%5%10%Remington Research Group (R)Remington Research Group (R)March 6–8, 2024713 (LV)± 3.9%53%39%–8%Emerson CollegeEmerson CollegeJanuary 23–28, 20241,830 (RV)± 2.2%43%30%7%20%Show Me Victories (D)Show Me Victories (D)October 26–31, 2023407 (RV)± 4.9%46%42%4%8%Emerson CollegeEmerson CollegeOctober 1–4, 2023491 (RV)± 4.4%45%32%5%17%GQR Research (D)GQR Research (D)August 16–19, 2023863 (LV)± 3.3%44%43%–12%

Josh Hawley vs. Wesley Bell Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoshHawley (R) WesleyBell (D) Other UndecidedEmerson CollegeOctober 1–4, 2023491 (RV)± 4.4%44%34%5%17%

Debate + 2024 United States Senate election in Missouri debate Date Host Moderator Link Republican Democratic Libertarian Green BetterKey: Participant  Absent  Not invited  Invited Withdrawn Hawley Kunce Young Kline Young1 Sep. 20, 2024 Missouri Press Association David Lieb YouTube

Results

By county