Sub-national opinion polling for the 2015 United Kingdom general election

Polling was conducted separately in the constituent countries of the United Kingdom. Of the 650 seats in the House of Commons, England had 533, Scotland had 59, Wales had 40 and Northern Ireland had 18.

England

Date(s)conductedPolling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGrnOthersLead 7 May 20152015 general election–41.0%31.6%8.2%14.1%4.2%0.9%9.46 May 2015Survation91940%32%11%11%5%2%85–6 May 2015ComRes/Daily Mail, ITV News 86638%36%9%12%4%1%25–6 May 2015Lord AshcroftLord Ashcroft adjusts for don't know/refusers by reallocating a proportion of those to the party they tend to support. The England figures are based on a table that does not adjust for don't knows/refusers. 2,59335%33%10%13%7%2%24–6 May 2015Survation/Daily Mirror3,56634%32%10%17%5%2%23–6 May 2015ICM/The Guardian ICM adjust for don't know/refusers by reallocating a proportion of those to the major party they tend to support. Percentages for England are based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers.1,72737%37%8%13%4%1% Tie3–6 May 2015ICM/The Guardian1,33038%37%8%12%3%1%14–5 May 2015Opinium 2,49337%35%8%12%7%1%24–5 May 2015Survation/Daily Mirror1,27635%34%9%17%4%1%13–5 May 2015ComRes/Daily Mail, ITV News 88038%34%8%15%4%1%43–5 May 2015BMG/May2015.com, New Statesman88737%34%10%14%4%1%31–3 May 2015Lord Ashcroft 85835%32%10%13%7%4%31–2 May 2015Survation/Mail on Sunday1,85234%35%8%19%4%1%130 Apr – 1 May 2015Survation/Daily Mirror97836%34%10%17%4%<0.5%228–30 Apr 2015ComRes/Independent on Sunday, Sunday Mirror 86835%34%8%14%8%2%128–30 Apr 2015Opinium/The Observer 1,65837%34%7%14%6%<0.5%327–28 Apr 2015ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail 87236%36%8%12%6%2%Tie25–27 Apr 2015BMG/May2015.com87739%31%11%15%4%<0.5%824–26 Apr 2015Lord Ashcroft87037%32%9%12%8%1%524–26 Apr 2015ICM/The Guardian 86339%32%7%15%6%<0.5%724–25 Apr 2015Survation/Mail on Sunday87936%31%9%20%4%<0.5%521–24 Apr 2015Opinium/The Observer 1,66836%33%9%15%7%1%322–23 Apr 2015Survation/Daily Mirror1,07236%29%10%20%5%<0.5%721–22 Apr 2015ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail 89039%34%8%11%5%3%517–19 Apr 2015Lord Ashcroft86336%33%9%14%5%2%317–19 Apr 2015ICM/The Guardian86338%35%9%12%5%1%316–17 Apr 2015Opinium/The Observer 1,65538%32%9%14%6%1%616–17 Apr 2015Survation/Daily Mirror98635%34%8%18%3%1%112–15 Apr 2015Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard60035%37%8%11%8%1%210–12 Apr 2015Lord Ashcroft87034%36% 9%14%6%1%210–12 Apr 2015ICM/The Guardian 90041% 35%7%8%8%1%68–9 Apr 2015Opinium/The Observer 1,62639% 35%8%12%6%1%48–9 Apr 2015Survation/Daily Mirror83833%36% 9%16%5%1%37–8 Apr 2015ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail 71836% 35%11%13%4%1%12–3 Apr 2015Survation/Daily Mirror85634% 33%9%21%3%<0.5%12–3 Apr 2015Opinium/The Observer 1,71035% 34%7%15%7%1%130 Mar 2015 Dissolution of Parliament and the official start of the election campaign28–29 Mar 2015ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail 86438% 32%9%13%6%2%627–29 Mar 2015Lord Ashcroft86540% 34%7%11%7%1%624–25 Mar 2015Opinium/The Observer 1,69035% 34%9%13%7%<0.5%124–25 Mar 2015Survation/Daily Mirror85134%34%8%20%4%<0.5%Tie20–22 Mar 2015ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail 86438% 35%8%11%7%1%320–22 Mar 2015Lord Ashcroft86036% 33%8%14%6%2%320–21 Mar 2015Survation/Mail on Sunday 861 31%35%10%19%3%1%418–19 Mar 2015Opinium/The Observer 1,70237% 33%7%14%7%1%413–15 Mar 2015Lord Ashcroft86334% 29%8%18%9%3%513–15 Mar 2015ICM/The Guardian 910 38%37%6%11%5%3%110–12 Mar 2015Opinium/The Observer 1,65435%35%7%15%7%<0.5%Tie8–11 Mar 2015Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 863 34%37%8%14%6%1%36–8 Mar 2015Lord Ashcroft85936% 31%5%18%9%1%53–6 Mar 2015Opinium/The Observer 1,62636%33%7%15%7%3%327 Feb – 1 Mar 2015Lord Ashcroft86036% 32%8%14%7%2%424–26 Feb 2015Opinium/The Observer 1,67935%36% 7%14%6%1%123 Feb 2015Survation/Daily Mirror92130%34% 10%21%3%2%420–23 Feb 2015ComRes/Daily Mail 86536%32%7%14%9%2%420–22 Feb 2015Lord Ashcroft86732%38% 6%13%8%2%617–20 Feb 2015Opinium/The Observer 1,70436%33%7%16%7%1%313–15 Feb 2015Lord Ashcroft 863 31%34%9%18%9%3%Tie13–15 Feb 2015ICM/The Guardian86038%34%7%10%8%2%410–12 Feb 2015Opinium/The Observer 1,71335%35%8%15%5%1%Tie8–10 Feb 2015Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard84438% 37%7%10%8%0%16–8 Feb 2015Lord Ashcroft86036% 31%9%16%7%1%53–6 Feb 2015Opinium/The Observer 1,94733%35% 7%15%8%2%230 Jan – 1 Feb 2015Lord Ashcroft85734% 30%8%17%10%1%425 Jan 2015Survation/Daily Mirror89034% 30%7%25%4%<0.5% 423–25 Jan 2015ComRes/The Independent85233% 29%9%20%8%1%422–25 Jan 2015Lord Ashcroft85933%34% 5%17%9%2%116–19 Jan 2015ICM/The Guardian 86332%35% 8%14%10%1%316–18 Jan 2015Lord Ashcroft87131% 27%9%17%12%4%411–13 Jan 2015Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard85435%35%8%12%8%2%Tie9–11 Jan 2015Lord Ashcroft85837% 29%7%17%8%2%812–16 Dec 2014ICM/The Guardian86131%33% 11%17%5%3%213–15 Dec 2014Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard84036% 31%9%14%10%0%512–14 Dec 2014ComRes/The Independent89729%34% 12%17%6%2%55–7 Dec 2014Lord Ashcroft 860 31%31%7%23%6%2%Tie6 May 20102010 general election–39.6%28.1%24.2%3.5%1.0%3.6%11.5

Scotland

Date(s)conductedPolling organisation/clientSample sizeLabSNPLDConUKIPGrnOthersLead 7 May 2015 2015 general election – 24.3% 50.0% 7.5% 14.9% 1.6% 1.3% 0.3%25.7 4–6 May 2015 YouGov/The Sun, The Times 1,351 28% 48% 7% 14% 1% 1% 1%203–6 May 2015 Survation/Daily Record 1,660 26% 46% 7% 16% 2% 3% 1%20 1–6 May 2015 Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland 1,013 26% 48% 5% 14% 3% 2% 2%22 29 Apr – 1 May 2015 YouGov/Sunday Times 1,162 26% 49% 7% 15% 2% 1% 0%23 22–27 Apr 2015 Ipsos MORI/STV News 1,071 20% 54% 5% 17% 1% 2% 1%3422–27 Apr 2015 Survation/Daily Record 1,015 26% 51% 5% 14% 2% 1% <0.5%25 20–23 Apr 2015 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,044 27% 48% 4% 16% 3% 2% <0.5%21 16–20 Apr 2015 YouGov/The Times 1,111 25% 49% 5% 17% 3% 1% 0%241–19 Apr 2015 TNS 1,003 22% 54% 6% 13% 2% 2% 0%32 8–9 Apr 2015 YouGov/The Times 1,056 25% 49% 4% 18% 2% 1% 1%2418 Mar – 8 Apr 2015 TNS 978 24% 52% 6% 13% <0.5% 3% 0%2830 Mar – 2 Apr 2015 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,006 29% 45% 4% 14% 4% 2% <0.5%1626–31 Mar 2015 YouGov/Scottish Sun 1,864 29% 46% 3% 16% 2% 2% <0.5%1730 Mar 2015 Dissolution of the UK Parliament and the official start of the election campaign13–19 Mar 2015 ICM/The Guardian 1,002 27% 43% 6% 14% 7% 3% 1%1612–17 Mar 2015 Survation/Daily Record 1,027 26% 47% 4% 16% 4% 2% 1%2110–12 Mar 2015 YouGov/The Times 1,049 27% 46% 4% 18% 2% 3% 1%196–10 Mar 2015 Survation/Unison Scotland 1,005 28% 47% 4% 15% 3% 2% 1%1930 Jan – 22 Feb 2015 TNS 1,001 30% 46% 3% 14% 3% 4% 1%1612–17 Feb 2015 Survation/Daily Record 1,011 28% 45% 5% 15% 3% 3% 1%1729 Jan – 2 Feb 2015 YouGov/The Times 1,001 27% 48% 4% 15% 4% 3% 1%2114 Jan – 2 Feb 2015 TNS 1,006 31% 41% 4% 16% 2% 6% 1%1012–19 Jan 2015 Ipsos MORI/STV News 774 24% 52% 4% 12% 1% 4% 3%2812–16 Jan 2015 Survation/Daily Record 1,006 26% 46% 7% 14% 4% 3% 1%209–14 Jan 2015 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,007 31% 41% 3% 14% 7% 3%1016–18 Dec 2014 ICM/The Guardian 1,004 26% 43% 6% 13% 7% 4% 1%1715–18 Dec 2014 Survation/Daily Record 1,001 24% 48% 5% 16% 4% 1% 1%2413 Dec 2014 Jim Murphy is elected Leader of the Scottish Labour Party 9–11 Dec 2014 YouGov/The Sun 1,081 27% 47% 3% 16% 3% 3% 1%2014–20 Nov 2014 Nicola Sturgeon becomes leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) and subsequently First Minister of Scotland6–13 Nov 2014 Survation/Daily Record 1,001 24% 46% 6% 17% 5% 2% 1%2230 Oct – 4 Nov 2014 Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland 1,000 28% 45% 3% 15% 7% 1% 1%1727–30 Oct 2014 YouGov/The Times 1,078 27% 43% 4% 15% 6% 4% 1%1622–29 Oct 2014 Ipsos Mori/STV 769 23% 52% 6% 10% 2% 6% 1%2929 Sep – 1 Oct 2014 Panelbase/SNP 1,049 32% 34% 5% 18% 6% 5%218 Sep 2014 Scottish independence referendum ("No" wins)4–8 Jul 2014 Survation/Daily Record 786 33% 38% 5% 17% 5% 2% <1%525–26 Jun 2014 YouGov Unknown 39% 31% 5% 16% 10%86–10 Jun 2014 Survation/Daily Record 773 32% 40% 5% 15% 6% 1% 1%822 May 2014 European Parliament election11–15 Apr 2014 Survation/Sunday Post 80836%36% 6% 16% 3% 1% 1%Tie4–7 Apr 2014 Survation/Daily Record 803 34% 40% 6% 15% 3% 1% 1%66–7 Mar 2014 Survation/Daily Record 850 36% 38% 5% 15% 3% 1% 1%217–18 Feb 2014 Survation/Daily Mail 805 33% 38% 6% 17% 4% 2% 1%529–31 Jan 2014 Survation/Daily Mail 776 39% 30% 6% 16% 4% 2% 1% 94–8 Oct 2013 Lord Ashcroft 737 40% 31% 6% 18% 2% 2% 1% 922 Feb – 9 May 2013 Lord Ashcroft 6,659 45% 23% 8% 16% 5% 2% <1% 2217–28 Oct 2012 Lord Ashcroft 703 33% 39% 6% 17% 7%617–20 Jul 2012 YouGov/Fabian Society 1,029 43% 29% 8% 16% 3% 3% 1% 1418–21 May 2012 YouGov Unknown 40% 35% 5% 14% 6% 53 May 2012 Scottish local elections22–24 Feb 2012 YouGov 1,053 42% 30% 7% 17% 4% 125 May 2011 Scottish Parliament election26–29 Apr 2011 YouGov/Scotsman 1,108 42% 28% 7% 17% 1% 2% 2% 1419–21 Apr 2011 YouGov Unknown 43% 30% 7% 15% 5% 1313–15 Apr 2011 YouGov Unknown 43% 28% 9% 16% 5% 1525–28 Mar 2011 YouGov Unknown 46% 26% 6% 17% 5% 2018–20 Oct 2010 YouGov Unknown 44% 26% 7% 18% 5% 1831 Aug – 3 Sep 2010 YouGov Unknown 39% 29% 11% 16% 5% 106 May 2010 2010 general election – 42.0% 19.9% 18.9% 16.7% 0.7% 0.7% 1.7% 22.1

Wales

Date(s)conductedPolling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDPCUKIPGrnOthersLead 7 May 20152015 general election– 36.9% 27.2% 6.5% 12.1% 13.6% 2.6% 1.0%9.74–6 May 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,202 39% 25% 8% 13% 12% 2% 2% 1428–30 Apr 2015 YouGov/Plaid Cymru 1,146 39% 26% 6% 13% 12% 3% 2% 1313–15 Apr 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales, Cardiff University 1,143 40% 26% 6% 12% 13% 4% <0.5% 1426–31 Mar 2015 YouGov/The Sun 1,035 40% 27% 6% 9% 13% 5% 1% 1330 Mar 2015 Dissolution of the UK Parliament and the official start of the election campaign24–27 Mar 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,189 40% 25% 5% 11% 14% 5% 1% 155–9 Mar 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,279 39% 25% 5% 10% 14% 6% 1% 1419–21 Jan 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,036 37% 23% 6% 10% 16% 8% 1% 148–13 Jan 2015 ICM/BBC Wales 1,004 38% 21% 7% 12% 13% 6% 2% 172–3 Dec 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,131 36% 23% 5% 11% 18% 5% 2% 1319–22 Sep 2014 ICM/BBC Wales 1,006 39% 23% 5% 13% 16% 2% 1% 168–11 Sep 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,025 38% 23% 6% 11% 17% 5% 1% 1526 Jun – 1 Jul 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,035 41% 25% 5% 11% 14% 3% 2% 1622 May 2014 European Parliament election12–14 May 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,092 43% 22% 7% 11% 13% 3% 2% 2111–22 Apr 2014 YouGov/Cardiff University 1,027 45% 24% 7% 11% 10% 1% 2% 2121-24 Feb 2014 ICM/BBC Wales 1,000 45% 24% 6% 15% 8% 2% 1% 2110–12 Feb 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,250 47% 22% 7% 11% 9% 2% 2% 252–4 Dec 2013 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,001 46% 21% 8% 12% 10% 2% 2% 2518–22 Jul 2013 YouGov 1,012 48% 23% 8% 9% 8% 2% 2% 2518–20 Feb 2013 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,007 51% 22% 9% 10% 7% 1% 1% 292–4 Jul 2012 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,000 54% 23% 4% 10% 9% 313 May 2012 Welsh local elections12–16 Apr 2012 YouGov 1,039 50% 23% 7% 12% 9% 2730 Jan – 1 Feb 2012 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,008 50% 25% 6% 11% 5% 3% 2% 255 May 2011 Welsh assembly election2–4 May 2011 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,010 50% 24% 8% 10% 4% 2% 2% 256 May 20102010 general election – 36.2% 26.1% 20.1% 11.3% 2.4% 0.4% 3.4% 10

Northern Ireland

Date(s)conducted Polling organisation/client SamplesizeSFDUPSDLPUUPAllOthers Lead7 May 20152015 general election– 24.5% 25.7% 13.9% 16.0% 8.6% 10.3%1.211–24 Sep 2014 LucidTalk/Belfast Telegraph 1,089 24% 26% 15% 12% 6% 17%230 Sep – 28 Dec 2013Northern Ireland Life & TimesThe question asked was "Which of these political parties do you feel closest to?", not a voting intention question.1,28020%22%23%16%14%5%17 Mar 2013Mid Ulster by-election1 Oct 2012 – 10 Jan 2013Northern Ireland Life & Times1,20419%27%21%16%13%3%69 Jun 2011Belfast West by-election5 May 2011Northern Ireland Assembly election1 Oct – 18 Dec 2010Northern Ireland Life & Times1,20515%24%23%21%13%4%16 May 20102010 general election–25.5%25.0%16.5%15.2%6.3%11.5%0.5

London