The 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona. Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican venture capitalist Blake Masters.
Primaries in Arizona took place on August 2, 2022. Kelly won renomination without opposition, while Masters won the Republican nomination against a large field of candidates. Although Arizona typically leans Republican, Kelly led Masters by low single digits in aggregate polling. Kelly held a significant fundraising advantage until many Republican-aligned groups began spending to assist Masters in the final weeks of the campaign. On November 1, Libertarian nominee Marc Victor dropped out of the race and endorsed Masters.
Kelly won re-election on his first full term in office, defeating Masters by a comfortable margin of about 5 points. This was the first time Democrats won a full term to this seat since 1962. The 2022 race was competitive and seen as crucial to determining party control of the U.S. Senate; with Kelly's victory in Arizona and a Democratic victory in Nevada, in addition to a Democratic gain in Pennsylvania, it was projected on November 12 that the Democratic caucus would retain control of the Senate in the 118th United States Congress. Masters conceded the race to Kelly on November 15, 2022.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee Mark Kelly, incumbent U.S. Senator
Endorsements
Results
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee Blake Masters, former president of the Thiel Foundation and former chief operating officer of Thiel Capital
Eliminated in primary Mark Brnovich, Arizona attorney general Jim Lamon, solar power businessman Mick McGuire, retired U.S. Air Force major general and former adjutant general of the Arizona National Guard Justin Olson, member of the Arizona Corporation Commission
Did not file Craig Brittain Robert Paveza, software engineer
Declined Kirk Adams, former chief of staff to Governor Doug Ducey and former Speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives Andy Biggs, U.S. representative for Doug Ducey, outgoing governor of Arizona Kari Lake, former KSAZ-TV news anchor (ran for governor) Jack McCain, veteran and son of former U.S. Senator John McCain Martha McSally, former U.S. senator from Arizona (2019–2020) Kelli Ward, chair of the Arizona Republican Party, former state senator, and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2018 Kimberly Yee, state treasurer of Arizona (ran for re-election)
Endorsements
Polling Aggregate polls Source of pollaggregationDatesadministeredDatesupdated MarkBrnovich JimLamon BlakeMasters MichaelMcGuire JustinOlson UndecidedMarginReal Clear PoliticsReal Clear PoliticsJuly 27 – August 1, 2022August 2, 202214.5%22.0%37.0%8.5%3.3%17.7%Masters +15.0
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error MarkBrnovich JimLamon BlakeMasters MichaelMcGuire JustinOlson Other UndecidedThe Trafalgar Group (R)The Trafalgar Group (R)July 30 – August 1, 20221,064 (LV)± 2.9%16%24%39%7%4%–9%Emerson CollegeEmerson CollegeJuly 28–30, 2022600 (LV)± 3.9%14%22%40%12%3%–9%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen ReportsJuly 27–28, 2022710 (LV)± 4.0%16%19%31%10%3%6%15%OH Predictive InsightsJuly 27, 2022502 (LV)± 4.4%12%21%36%5%3%–22%Battleground Connect (R)Battleground Connect (R)July 26–27, 2022800 (LV)± 3.7%16%30%28%8%6%–12%The Trafalgar Group (R)The Trafalgar Group (R)July 25–27, 20221,071 (LV)± 2.9%15%27%35%8%6%–10%Battleground Connect (R)Battleground Connect (R)July 17–18, 2022800 (LV)± 3.7%16%33%28%7%2%–14%Cygnal (R)Cygnal (R)July 12–13, 2022419 (LV)± 4.8%18%20%30%5%2%–25%Battleground Connect (R)Battleground Connect (R)July 7–9, 2022800 (LV)± 3.7%16%29%27%4%––24%HighGround Public Affairs (R)HighGround Public Affairs (R)July 2–7, 2022400 (LV)± 4.9%13%14%23%5%2%–44%Alloy Analytics (R)/J.L. PartnersAlloy Analytics (R)/J.L. PartnersJuly 5–6, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%10%14%26%5%0%–45%OH Predictive InsightsJune 30 – July 2, 2022515 (LV)± 4.3%14%18%25%6%2%–35%Public Policy Polling (D)Public Policy Polling (D)June 28, 2022595 (LV)± 4.0%15%10%29%5%––41%The Trafalgar Group (R)The Trafalgar Group (R)June 7–9, 20221,077 (LV)± 2.9%24%17%29%4%4%–22%Data Orbital (R)Data Orbital (R)June 1–3, 2022550 (LV)± 4.3%18%20%15%––12%36%Fabrizio Lee (R)Fabrizio Lee (R)May 17–18, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%18%18%22%7%2%–34%Cygnal (R)April 28–30, 2022– (LV)–19%20%19%7%2%–33%The Trafalgar Group (R)The Trafalgar Group (R)April 25–28, 20221,064 (LV)± 3.0%24%25%19%8%3%–21%McLaughlin & Associates (R)McLaughlin & Associates (R)April 21–24, 2022– (LV)–22%25%16%6%––31%OH Predictive InsightsApril 4–5, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%21%16%9%6%3%–45%Data Orbital (R)April 1–3, 2022550 (LV)± 4.3%20%26%10%7%4%–33%HighGround Public Affairs (R)HighGround Public Affairs (R)March 26–27, 2022264 (LV)± 6.0%11%10%6%4%–8%61%Fabrizio Lee (R)Fabrizio Lee (R)March 13–14, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%14%14%16%3%1%–52%Alloy Analytics (R)/J.L. PartnersAlloy Analytics (R)/J.L. PartnersMarch 9–12, 2022433 (LV)± 4.7%20%15%15%3%1%–45%Data Orbital (R)March 2022– (LV)–23%17%14%4%5%–37%Data Orbital (R)February 11–13, 2022300 (LV)± 5.7%22%17%15%5%5%–37%co/efficient (R)co/efficient (R)February 6–8, 2022755 (LV)± 3.6%17%13%12%3%1%11%44%OH Predictive InsightsJanuary 11–13, 2022302 (RV)± 5.6%25%7%6%11%4%–47%OH Predictive InsightsNovember 1–8, 2021252 (RV)± 6.2%27%5%9%12%2%–46%Fabrizio Lee (R)Fabrizio Lee (R)October 26–28, 2021800 (LV)± 3.5%26%4%14%2%2%<1%52%OnMessage Inc. (R)OnMessage Inc. (R)September 9–12, 2021500 (LV)± 4.4%41%5%7%4%––43%OH Predictive InsightsOH Predictive InsightsSeptember 7–12, 2021311 (RV)± 5.6%27%3%6%14%––51%Fabrizio Lee (R)August 4–8, 2021800 (LV)± 3.5%29%7%5%3%–<1%56%HighGround Public Affairs (R)HighGround Public Affairs (R)May 3–5, 2021400 (LV)± 4.9%28%–1%1%––61%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KirkAdams AndyBiggs MarkBrnovich DougDucey JimLamon BlakeMasters MichaelMcGuire JustinOlson Other Undecidedco/efficient (R)February 6–8, 2022755 (LV)± 3.6%––14%13%11%11%3%1%9%38%OH Predictive InsightsJanuary 11–13, 2022302 (RV)± 5.6%––13%35%4%4%9%2%–34%WPA Intelligence (R)WPA Intelligence (R)April 5–6, 2021505 (LV)± 4.4%–46%–45%–––––9%OH Predictive InsightsOH Predictive InsightsMarch 8–12, 2021690 (RV)± 3.7%2%27%–––2%3%––67%6%26%–––2%10%––56%Data Orbital (R)Data Orbital (R)February 17–19, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%2%36%––1%1%3%–4%53%
Results
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Nominee Marc Victor, attorney and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2012 (withdrew from general election, endorsed Blake Masters)
Results
General election In what was initially expected to be one of the most widely contested elections in the nation, Kelly amassed a massive fundraising advantage over Masters, raising a record $75 million compared to Masters's $12 million. Due to the Supreme Court's Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision, which reversed Roe v. Wade, Kelly spent the campaign heavily attacking Masters over his anti-abortion stance, which was seen as hurting Masters especially among women voters. He also attacked Masters's support for privatizing Social Security, as Arizona has many retired seniors who use the program. Masters's claim that the 2020 presidential election was stolen also hurt him among voters. Steven J. Law, the leader of a Republican-aligned super PAC, said that Masters "had scored the worst focus group results of any candidate he had ever seen," and cancelled all of its Arizona television advertisements supporting Masters to divert money to other races.
With the limited amount of money he had, Masters attempted to portray Kelly as weak on illegal immigration, supportive of spending programs that caused inflation, and too supportive of President Joe Biden. In the final weeks of the campaign, Republican groups increased the amount of money they were spending on the race and polls began to tighten, and many news outlets moved the race from lean Democrat to tossup. However, in the end, Kelly relatively easily defeated Masters, which helped Democrats in retaining the Senate. According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Kelly won independent voters by double-digit margins, which contributed to Masters's defeat.
Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political Report October 27, 2022 Inside Elections October 21, 2022 Sabato's Crystal Ball October 19, 2022PoliticoOctober 27, 2022RCPOctober 25, 2022Fox News October 25, 2022DDHQOctober 25, 2022FiveThirtyEightOctober 25, 2022The EconomistNovember 1, 2022
Debates 2022 United States Senate general election in Arizona debates Date Host Moderator Link Democratic Republican Libertarian Participant Absent Non-invitee Invitee Withdrawn Mark Kelly Blake Masters Marc Victor 1 October 6, 2022 Arizona PBS Ted SimonsYoutube
Endorsements
Polling Aggregate polls Source of pollaggregationDatesadministeredDatesupdated MarkKelly (D) BlakeMasters (R) UndecidedMarginRealClearPoliticsRealClearPoliticsOctober 30 – November 7, 2022November 7, 202248.0%48.3%3.7%Masters +0.3FiveThirtyEightFiveThirtyEightSeptember 7, 2021 – November 7, 2022November 7, 202248.6%47.1%4.3%Kelly +1.5270ToWin270ToWinNovember 3–7, 2022November 7, 202247.9%46.6%5.5%Kelly +1.3Average48.3%47.2%4.5%Kelly +1.1