General elections were held in Bolivia on 20 October 2019. Voters elected all 130 members of the Chamber of Deputies and 36 senators and cast ballots for a joint slate of president and vice president.
At the time of the elections, the Bolivian constitution limited the president and vice president to two terms, and a referendum in 2016 to amend the constitution had been rejected; the Supreme Court of Justice nonetheless ruled that all public offices would have no term limits despite what was established in the constitution, allowing the incumbent president Evo Morales to run for a fourth term. Disputes over the transparency and legitimacy of the elections prompted weeks of widespread protests in Bolivia after Morales was declared the winner with 47.08% of the vote; because this was greater than a ten-point margin over his nearest competitor, former president Carlos Mesa, this was enough for Morales to be announced as the winner without requiring a runoff second-round vote.Bolivia's Morales to call fresh election after OAS audit, BBC News (10 November 2019). The Organization of American States (OAS) conducted an audit claiming "clear manipulation" and significant irregularities,Anthony Faiola & Rachelle Krygier, Bolivia's Morales agrees to new elections after OAS finds 'manipulation', Washington Post (10 November 2019). releasing a full report afterwards. The European Union released a report indicating that their observers found many irregularities and chaotic processes in the election. The New York Times later concluded on the basis of a new study by independent researchers and academics that the initial report was flawed as it was released too early, relied on poor datasets and used inappropriate statistical methods. The study found that there was no statistical evidence of voter fraud as the audit had claimed; OAS stood by their report but refused to disclose the full methodology and dataset.
Following protests, as well as calls for a second-round election from several foreign countries, Morales, who had pledged to respect the OAS audit, agreed on 10 November to hold new elections, at a date to be determined. Hours later he and his vice president Álvaro García Linera were forced to resign from office after losing support from the police, the Bolivian Workers' Center and the military.Ernesto Londoño, Bolivian Leader Evo Morales Steps Down, New York Times (10 November 2019). The president of the Senate and the president of the Chamber of Deputies – both party allies of Morales – resigned on the same day, exhausting the constitutional line of succession. As a result, the second vice president of the Senate, Jeanine Áñez of the opposition Social Democratic Movement, assumed the interim presidency of Bolivia on 12 November 2019. Due to the annulment of the 2019 elections, MAS retained their supermajority of more than two-thirds in both chambers in opposition to the government, although they would lose this in the 2020 elections.
The 2019 elections were to be rerun in May 2020, but were postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. On 22 June 2020, Áñez approved a law passed by both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate to set a date for the election for 6 September 2020 and the elected authorities in place by mid to late November 2020.
Background
Article 168 of the 2009 constitution allows the president and vice-president to put themselves forward for re-election only once, limiting the number of terms to two. The governing party, the Movement Towards Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples (MAS–IPSP) sponsored an effort to amend this article. The referendum was authorized by a joint session of the Plurinational Legislative Assembly on 26 September 2015, by a vote of 112 to 41.
The referendum was held on 21 February 2016 and the proposed amendment was narrowly rejected by 51.3% to 48.7%. A successful 'yes' vote would have allowed President Evo Morales and Vice President Álvaro García Linera to run for another term in office in 2019. Morales had already been elected three times. The first time, in 2006, is not counted as it was before the two term limit was introduced by the 2009 constitution.Consulta para habilitar a Evo está en marcha; el MAS ‘se juega la vida’ La Razón, 6 November 2015
Despite the referendum result, the Supreme Court of Justice – referring to Art. 23 of the American Convention on Human Rights – ruled a little over one year later in December 2017 that all public offices would have no term limits despite what was established in the constitution, thus allowing Morales to run for a fourth term. Article 23 states: "Every citizen shall enjoy the following rights and opportunities: [...] to have access, under general conditions of equality, to the public service of his country." American Convention of Human Rights
Electoral system The president of Bolivia is elected using a modified two-round system; a candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the vote, or between 40% and 50% of the vote and are at least 10 percentage points ahead of their closest rival. If neither condition is met, a run-off election is held between the two top candidates.
The 130 members in the Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) are elected using a seat linkage based mixed compensatory system using two votes: 63 deputies are elected by first-preference plurality to represent single-member electoral districts, 60 are elected by closed list party-list proportional representation from party lists on a departmental basis (in districts of varying sizes corresponding to Bolivia's nine departments with a threshold of 3%). The list seats in each region are awarded proportionally based on the vote for the presidential candidates, subtracting the number of single-member districts won (to provide mixed-member proportional representation). The remaining seven seats are reserved indigenous seats elected by the usos y costumbres. A voter can only vote in one of either the normal constituencies or special constituencies (coexistence). Party lists are required to alternate between men and women, and in the single-member districts, men are required to run with a female alternate, and vice versa. At least 50% of the deputies from single-member districts are required to be women.
The Chamber of Senators (Cámara de Senadores) has 36 members, four from each the country's nine departments, which are also elected using closed party-lists, using the D'Hondt method. The senate seats are also awarded based on the vote for president.
The election uses the same votes to elect the President (first round), the Chamber and the Senate, making it a double (triple) simultaneous vote. Voters may therefore not split their ticket between these elections, but they may vote for a candidate of a different list in the election of the Chamber as the deputies from the single-member districts are elected using separate votes.
Primary elections Primary elections were held on 27 January 2019. María Eugenia Choque, President of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), stated that international observers had worked with the TSE to monitor the primary election results. She also stated that they had been given an "information seminar" about all the logistic, legal and communications issues related to the primary and had even visited polling stations to make assessments and recommendations. By the time the primary was held, however, only one candidate had been registered for each of the nine parties or alliances participating in the general elections. Morales received 36.54% of the total primary votes. Revolutionary Nationalist Movement candidate Virginio Lema was his closest challenger, receiving 7.10% of the total primary votes.
Presidential candidates On 27 January 2019, the TSE announced that nine candidates would contest the presidential elections. 27 January 2019Mesa va con un cruceño, Samuel se baja y Costas perfila a gente joven El Deber, 28 November 2018
PartyPresidential candidateVice presidential candidateSloganNameExperienceMovement for SocialismEvo MoralesPresident of Bolivia (2006–2019)Álvaro García Linera#FuturoSeguroCivic CommunityCarlos MesaPresident of Bolivia (2003–2005) Vice President of Bolivia (2002–2003)Gustavo Pedraza#UnaBoliviaMejorSocial Democratic MovementÓscar Ortiz AnteloSenator for Santa Cruz (2006–2010, 2015–2020)Shirley FrancoLas Manos LimpiasSolidarity Civic UnityVíctor Hugo CárdenasVice President of Bolivia (1993–1997) Member of the Chamber of Deputies (1985–1993)Humberto PeinadoRescatemos BoliviaChristian Democratic PartyChi Hyun ChungNone (Evangelical pastor)Paola BarrigaChi PuedeRevolutionary Nationalist Movement Virginio LemaNone (Actress and Lawyer)Fernando UntojaHay por Quien VotarIsrael RodríguezNone (Activist)Justino RománRodríguez PresidenteRuth NinaDeputy mayor of Quillacollo (2015)Leopoldo Chui #Pan para BoliviaFélix PatziGovernor of La Paz (2015–2021)Lucila MendietaSistema Comunal
Opinion polls
2017 Polling firmDateMoralesMesaGarcía LineraCostasDoria MedinaQuirogaRevillaPatziBlankMercados y MuestrasJanuary31%16%9%10%4%2%4%14%Mercados y MuestrasMarch26%20%8%12%4%2%3%12%Mercados y MuestrasMay29%21%5%7%2%2%4%13%Captura ConsultingSeptember/October37%20%10%5%3%24%17%13%7% 4%
2018 and 2019 Polling firmDateMoralesMesaOrtizGarcía LineraDoria MedinaRevillaQuirogaPatziOthersBlankMercados y MuestrasJanuary 201822%15%13% 5%4%10%Mercados y MuestrasMarch/April 201824%14%8%10% 3%Captura ConsultingMarch 201827%18%9%4%4%2%3%Captura ConsultingMay 201827%23%11%7%2%Mercados y MuestrasJuly 201827%25%8%7%3%2%2%6%IPSOSAugust 201829%27%7%9%3%8%5%IPSOSOctober 201839%25%6%4%3%7%16%Mercados y MuestrasNovember 201829%34%10%7%20%Mercados y MuestrasDecember 201830%39%4% 2%2%0%0%0%20%Mercados y MuestrasJanuary 201932%32%4%3%4% 2%0%0%0%25%Mercados y MuestrasFebruary 201931%30%6.6%6.6%16.7%Tal CualMarch 201935.6%30.3%7.3%16.7%Estudios y TendenciasApril 201926.4%21.1%5.7%16.7%Tal CualMay 201938.1%27.1%8.7%1.3%16.2%CiesmoriJuly 201937%26%9%127%Captura ConsultingJuly 201938.4%23.6%11.9%1.9%18.9%Mercados y MuestrasAugust 201935%27%11%2%13%10%Tal CualAugust 201940.8%23.3%10.8%1.8%14.6%CELAGAugust 201943.4%25.1%12.8%3.1%7.8%5.0%Mercados y Muestras (Nacional)September 201934.4%27.1%13%1%2%5.0%CELAGOctober 201938.8%25.4%11.3%3.2%5.2%10.4%5.7%
Results
Two independent vote count processes were used for the elections. The first one, Transmisión de Resultados Electorales Preliminares (TREP), is a quick count process based on photographs that is meant to provide a preliminary result on election day. The second process is the traditional physical count that takes more time to complete.What Happened in Bolivia's 2019 Vote Count? The Role of the OAS Electoral Observation Mission, the Center for Economic and Policy Research, November 2019
With a preliminary vote count of 45% for incumbent president Evo Morales and 38% for his leading challenger, former president Carlos Mesa, after 83% of votes were counted, neither of the conditions for a first-round win appeared likely to be met. A second-round runoff vote between those two candidates would therefore be held on 15 December. However, no further updates to the preliminary results were made after 19:40 hours local time on election day, which caused consternation among opposition politicians and election monitors deployed by the Organization of American States (OAS); Mesa described the suspension as "extremely serious" and spoke of manipulation; the OAS requested an explanation for the pause in the publication of the vote tally. But while the vote tally was not being publicized, election staff were still observed counting votes overnight.
After the publication of the count resumed, the OAS said it observed a "drastic and hard-to-explain change in the trend",OAS (2019b). and recommended a runoff election due to what the OAS viewed as manipulation.