2002 Portuguese legislative election

The 2002 Portuguese legislative election took place on 17 March. The election renewed all 230 members of the Assembly of the Republic.

This election was called following the resignation of then incumbent Prime Minister António Guterres, after the defeat of the Socialist Party in the 2001 local elections. That fact, plus the problematic state of the country's finances, were the main arguments for the right-wing opposition, making them the favorites to win the election.

With just over 40 percent of the votes cast, the Social Democrats (PSD) regained the status as the largest political force in Portugal, although the Socialists (PS) won almost 38 percent of the vote. This was the closest legislative election in Portuguese democracy until 2024. This short distance also appears in the electoral map, with each party winning eleven of the 22 districts, while the PS won the two most populous, Lisbon and Porto. As a result, the Social Democrats failed to win the absolute majority they had between 1987 and 1995, despite having requested it during the campaign.

As no party gained a majority, the Social Democrats formed a coalition with the right-wing People's Party (CDS–PP), which had a fairly solid performance, polling in third place. The left-wing Democratic Unity Coalition (CDU) achieved its lowest result up to that point, being surpassed by CDS–PP and finishing third in its traditional strongholds of Évora and Setúbal. The Left Bloc (BE) gained just one MP. Voter turnout was slightly higher than it was in 1999, as 61.5 percent of the electorate cast a ballot.

Background

After the disappointing result of the Socialist Party (PS) in the 1999 election, the PS government entered in a series of crises."António Guterres e o pântano ", Público, 31 December 2001. Retrieved 23 October 2022. Resignations of ministers from government, a worsening fiscal and economic situation and the inability to pass legislation in Parliament, put pressure over the government, leading to controversial, and weird, alliances, such as the approval of the 2000 and 2001 budgets by a sole CDS – People's Party (CDS–PP) member of parliament, Daniel Campelo, in exchange for the government approving a cheese factory in Campelo's hometown, Ponte de Lima, in Viana do Castelo district."Há 21 anos o orçamento valeu um queijo limiano ", Observador, 12 October 2021. Retrieved 23 October 2022.

Government fall

The Socialist Party suffered a big, and unexpected, defeat in the December 2001 local elections."PS sofre hecatombe inesperada ", Público, 17 December 2001. Retrieved 23 October 2022. The party lost major municipalities across the country, mainly Lisbon, Porto, Sintra and Coimbra to the Social Democratic Party. Due to this surprising defeat, Prime Minister António Guterres announced he would tender his resignation as Prime Minister to prevent the country from falling "into a political swamp"."A noite que mudou a vida de Guterres ", Expresso, 13 October 2016. Retrieved 23 October 2022. President Jorge Sampaio accepted Guterres resignation and called a snap election for March 2002."Sampaio assina decreto que dissolve Parlamento e marca eleições antecipadas ", Público, 17 January 2002. Retrieved 23 October 2022.

Leadership changes and challenges Social Democratic Party After the 1999 election defeat, Durão Barroso's leadership started to be challenged and criticized."Divisões no PSD", RTP, 17 January 2000. Retrieved 21 November 2021. In January 2000, Durão Barroso called a snap party congress to resolve the leadership dispute."Durão Barroso desafia Santana Lopes", RTP, 19 January 2000. Retrieved 21 November 2021. Alongside Barroso, Pedro Santana Lopes and Luís Marques Mendes also ran. Durão Barroso was reelected as PSD leader and the results were the following:

Socialist Party

Following the resignation of António Guterres as Prime Minister and PS leader,"Guterres apresenta demissão depois de derrota nas autárquicas (act)", Jornal de Negócios, 17 December 2001. Retrieved 21 November 2021. the party started the process to elect a new leader. The popular minister in Guterres cabinet, Eduardo Ferro Rodrigues, and PS member Paulo Penedos, were the two candidates on the ballot, while the minister of Foreign Affairs Jaime Gama, who had announced his candidacy, dropped out. Around 121,000 PS members were registered to vote."Acção Socialista", PS, 10 January 2002. Retrieved 7 June 2022. In the end, Ferro Rodrigues got almost unanimous support by being elected with almost 97 percent of the votes."Ferro Rodrigues eleito novo secretário-geral do PS ", Público, 20 January 2002. Retrieved 21 November 2021. The results were the following:

Electoral system

The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.

The number of seats assigned to each district depends on the district magnitude. The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.Gallaher, Michael (1992). "Comparing Proportional Representation Electoral Systems: Quotas, Thresholds, Paradoxes and Majorities"

For these elections, and compared with the 1999 elections, the MPs distributed by districts were the following: District Number of MPs Map Lisbon 48 Porto 38 Braga 18 Setúbal 17 Aveiro 15 Leiria, Santarém and Coimbra 10 Viseu 9 Faro 8 Viana do Castelo 6 Azores, Castelo Branco, Madeira and Vila Real 5 Bragança and Guarda 4 Beja, Évora and Portalegre 3 Europe and Outside Europe 2

Parties Following the failure to form a joint coalition for the 1999 election, the idea of a PSD/CDS–PP was once again raised but ultimately rejected. The table below lists the parties represented in the Assembly of the Republic during the 8th legislature (1999–2002) and that also partook in the election: Name Ideology Political position Leader 1999 result Seats atdissolution % Seats PS Socialist Party Social democracy Centre-left Ferro Rodrigues 44.1% PPD/PSD Social Democratic Party Centre-right José Manuel Durão Barroso 32.3% PCP Portuguese Communist Party CommunismMarxism–Leninism Far-left Carlos Carvalhas9.0% PEV Ecologist Party "The Greens" Eco-socialismGreen politics Left-wing Isabel Castro CDS–PP CDS – People's Party Christian democracyConservatism Paulo Portas 8.3% BE Left Bloc Left-wing Francisco Louçã 2.4% Ind. IndependentDaniel Campelo

Seat changes On 7 November 2000, MP Daniel Campelo, elected in the CDS – People's Party list for Viana do Castelo, left the party and became an Independent, following a split with CDS–PP regarding his votes in favour of António Guterres government's State budgets."Os orçamentos do PS e Daniel Campelo", RTP, 8 September 2015. Retrieved 26 January 2025.

Campaign period Issues The campaign was dominated by the country's economic situation. Social Democratic Party (PSD) leader, Durão Barroso, proposed strong changes, from a "fiscal shock", by cutting income and corporate taxes, to reforms in the public sector. The issue of public sector reform, in addition to gaffes made during the campaign, created problems to the PSD cause. On the other side, the Socialists (PS), led by Eduardo Ferro Rodrigues, portrayed the PSD policies as "voodoo economics", adding this would jeopardize Portugal's deficit situation, even though the party also proposed tax and spending cuts. Despite being stronger than Barroso in personal popularity polls, Ferro Rodrigues had to contend with accusations of mismanagement, corruption, and problematic public service responses during the Socialists' six-year term. The People's Party (CDS–PP) focused on issues such as security and wage increases, while the left-wing, mainly the communist Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU), campaigned to bolster its vote count with a view to potential post-election alliances with the PS.

Party slogans Party or alliance Original slogan English translation Refs PS « Fazer bem » "Do well" PSD « Somos todos Portugal » "We are all Portugal" CDU « Mudar para melhor » "Change for the better" CDS–PP « O braço direito de Portugal » "Portugal's right-hand man" BE « Com Razões Fortes » "With Strong Reasons"

Candidates' debates 2002 Portuguese legislative election debates Date Organisers Moderator(s) PS PSD CDU CDS–PP BE Refs 26 Feb SIC PPNNN 12 Mar RTP1 Judite de SousaJosé Alberto CarvalhoPPPPP

Opinion polling

The following table shows the opinion polls of voting intention of the Portuguese voters before the election. Included is also the result of the Portuguese general elections in 1999 and 2002 for reference.

Polling firm/Link Date Released Lead 2002 legislative election 17 Mar 2002 37.8 40.2 6.9 8.7 2.7 3.7 2.4 UCP 17 Mar 2002 36–41 37–42 5.5–8 7.5–10 3–4 — 1 Eurosondagem 17 Mar 2002 35.5–39.3 40.1–43.9 6.2–8.4 6.2–8.4 2.0–3.4 — 4.6 Intercampus 17 Mar 2002 35.5–40.5 37.8–42.8 6.8–9.8 5.3–8.3 1.6–4.2 — 2.3 Marktest 15 Mar 2002 35.2 43.7 8.1 6.0 3.7 3.3 8.5 Lusófona 15 Mar 2002 40.9 43.6 5.7 7.1 2.8 2.7 Eurosondagem 15 Mar 2002 39.3 41.4 6.9 5.6 3.5 3.3 2.1 Eurequipa 15 Mar 2002 33.9 44.7 7.1 9.1 3.2 2.0 10.8 UCP 14 Mar 2002 37.5 42.2 6.9 6.8 3.6 3.0 4.7 Intercampus 14 Mar 2002 39 41 8 5 3 4 2 Aximage 14 Mar 2002 40 44 7 6 2 1 4 SIC/Visão 13 Mar 2002 36.2 41.0 6.6 5.2 2.0 9.0 4.8 Eurosondagem 8 Mar 2002 39.9 42.7 17.4 2.8 Marktest 8 Mar 2002 36 43 6 7 4 4 7 Visão 7 Mar 2002 38.4 41.2 2.4 5.4 2.1 10.5 2.8 Eurosondagem 2 Mar 2002 35 38 6 5 2 14 3 Eurequipa 1 Mar 2002 35.0 42.3 22.7 7.3 SIC/Visão 28 Feb 2002 43.0 47.6 9.4 4.6 UCP 26 Feb 2002 35.6 43.5 5.5 4.7 2.7 8.0 7.9 Marktest Feb 2002 34.7 45.7 6.7 7.3 2.5 3.1 11.0 UCP 10 Jan 2002 41.4 43.0 7.1 2.7 2.5 3.3 1.6 Marktest Jan 2002 33.8 41.8 9.6 8.1 2.5 4.2 8.0 Marktest 22 Dec 2001 34 39 11 9 3 4 5 2001 local elections 16 Dec 2001 37.1 41.1 10.6 4.0 1.2 6.0 4.0 Marktest Nov 200135.4 33.7 10.6 11.6 2.9 5.8 1.7 Marktest Oct 200135.9 33.9 10.5 11.5 2.7 5.5 2.0 UCP 11 Oct 200142.4 36.2 7.6 5.0 2.6 6.2 6.2 UCP Jul 200141.7 38.2 6.1 6.0 2.3 5.7 3.5 Marktest 28 Jun 2001 34.8 35.1 10.7 10.7 3.3 5.4 0.3 SIC/Visão 8 Jun 2001 36.2 37.8 26.0 1.6 Marktest 27 Apr 200138 34 9 10 9 4 Marktest Mar 200139 35 26 4 Marktest 26 Jan 200137 33 10 11 3 6 4 Marktest 26 May 200038.1 30.3 10.8 13.3 2.8 4.7 7.8 UCP 8 May 200040.9 32.5 6.7 8.1 3.0 8.8 8.4 1999 legislative election 10 Oct 1999 44.1 32.3 9.0 8.3 2.4 3.9 11.9

2002 Portuguese legislative election

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