1999 Portuguese legislative election

The 1999 Portuguese legislative election took place on 10 October. The election renewed all 230 members of the Assembly of the Republic.

Incumbent Prime Minister António Guterres ran for a second term, but despite opinion poll predictions, the election results were labeled as a disappointment for Guterres' Socialists, as the party failed to win a historical absolute majority by just one MP and barely improved their 1995 score, just 0.3 percentage points."A noite que mudou a vida de Guterres ", Expresso, 16 October 2016. Retrieved 6 September 2020. The disappointing PS score would create instability in Guterres' second government in the years to follow."Os orçamentos do PS e Daniel Campelo ", RTP, 8 September 2015. Retrieved 6 September 2020. The Social Democratic Party was still away from the preferences of the majority of the Portuguese people, after the ten years cycle under the lead of Cavaco Silva that had terminated four years before, and lost 7 MPs, compared with 1995, and gathered 32 percent of the votes.

The Democratic Unity Coalition managed to recover, gaining two seats and defying predictions of its irreversible decline after the collapse of the Socialist Bloc in the early 1990s. The CDS–People's Party was able to hold on to its 15 MPs after tensions with the PSD earlier that year. For the first time, the Left Bloc, formed after the merger of several minor left-wing parties, gained representation in parliament by electing two MPs.

The turnout rate was low, being the lowest until it was surpassed in 2009 and all subsequent elections. Overall, voter turnout was only 61 percent of voters, one of the lowest ever recorded.

Background

Guterres' first government became the first minority government in Portuguese democracy to complete a 4-year term,"Apenas um governo minoritário cumpriu o mandato até ao fim", Sábado, 8 October 2015. Retrieved 15 January 2025. marked by the country's growing economy and stature, following the Expo 1998 and the support for the East-Timor cause."World: Europe Portugal goes to the polls", BBC News, 10 October 1999. Retrieved 6 September 2020. Furthermore, during this term, the Socialists' center-right opposition faced deep divisions,"PSD. O dia em que Marcelo desistiu de ser primeiro-ministro", Jornal i, 26 March 2019. Retrieved 6 September 2020. but despite this background, Guterres' government also suffered some setbacks, such as the 1998 abortion and regionalisation referendums, the latter one seen as the major defeat."Socialistas foram os responsáveis pela derrota da regionalização", Público, 7 March 2002. Retrieved 20 May 2026.

Leadership changes and challenges Social Democratic Party After leading his party to two successive defeats, in the 1995 election and in the 1996 Presidential election, then PSD leader Fernando Nogueira resigned."Demissão de Fernando Nogueira da liderança do PSD", RTP, 16 January 1996. Retrieved 6 June 2022. A party congress to elect a new leader was called for late March 1996. For that leadership ballot, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa announced his candidacy, just a few days after saying a phrase that would become famous in Portuguese politics, "Not even if Christ descends to earth, will I run.""Nem que Cristo desça à terra", NewsMuseum. Retrieved 6 June 2022. Marcelo faced Pedro Santana Lopes, which repeated his failed bid of 1995. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa was easily elected as PSD leader."Exclusivo Aconteceu em 1996 - Marcelo eleito presidente do PSD", Diário de Notícias, 31 March 2021. Retrieved 6 June 2022. The results were the following:

By late 1998, PSD leader Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa's plan to create an electoral alliance with the CDS – People's Party was splitting his party, but nonetheless, the alliance was approved in a party congress in February 1999, under the name "Democratic Alternative" (AD)."A angústia do voto secreto ", Publico, 19 February 1999. Retrieved 6 June 2022."Manuel Dias Loureiro – I Parte", RTP, 8 April 1999. Retrieved 15 June 2026. However, at the same a time, a scandal allegedly involving CDS–PP leader Paulo Portas, the "Moderna case", in which alleged corrupt dealings and mismanagement occurred at Moderna University,"Facturas associam Paulo Portas ao caso Moderna", Publico, 25 April 2003. Retrieved 6 June 2022. was creating a bad mood between PSD and CDS–PP, and especially between the two party leaders, with Marcelo not publicly supporting Portas."PSD. O dia em que Marcelo desistiu de ser primeiro-ministro", Jornal i, 26 March 2019. Retrieved 6 June 2022."Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa. O político que falhou mas chegou a Presidente ", RTP, 8 January 2021. Retrieved 14 September 2026. In reaction, by late March, Paulo Portas revealed private conversations with Marcelo on an interview to SIC, that precipitated the end of the AD alliance project."Marcelo. O show do comentador acaba em Belém? ", Observador, 11 October 2015. Retrieved 7 June 2022. Feeling betrayed and seeing that the alliance was unfeasible, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa resigned from the PSD leadership. A snap party congress was called for early May, and, as the sole candidate, José Manuel Durão Barroso was unanimously elected as the new PSD leader:

CDS – People's Party Then CDS leader, Manuel Monteiro, resigned from the leadership after the party's poor results in the 1997 local elections."Monteiro demitiu-se do PP há cinco anos mas continua à espreita", Publico, 23 September 2001. Retrieved 6 June 2022. Paulo Portas, which had a tense relationship with Monteiro, announced his candidacy but faced the candidate of the "Monteiro wing", Maria José Nogueira Pinto. The congress was very tense, with strong accusations between both candidates, but in the end Paulo Portas was elected as new party leader:"XVI Congresso do PP", RTP, 22 March 1998. Retrieved 6 June 2022.

Electoral system

The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.

The number of seats assigned to each district depends on the district magnitude. The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.Gallaher, Michael (1992). "Comparing Proportional Representation Electoral Systems: Quotas, Thresholds, Paradoxes and Majorities"

For these elections, and compared with the 1995 elections, the MPs distributed by districts were the following: District Number of MPs Map Lisbon 49 Porto 37 Braga 17 Setúbal 17 Aveiro 15 Leiria, Santarém and Coimbra 10 Viseu 9 Faro 8 Viana do Castelo 6 Azores, Castelo Branco, Madeira and Vila Real 5 Bragança, Évora and Guarda 4 Beja and Portalegre 3 Europe and Outside Europe 2

Parties The table below lists the parties represented in the Assembly of the Republic during the 7th legislature (1995–1999) and that also partook in the election: Name Ideology Political position Leader 1995 result % Seats PS Socialist Party Centre-left to Centre António Guterres 43.8% PPD/PSD Social Democratic Party Centre-right José Manuel Durão Barroso 34.1% CDS–PP CDS – People's Party Christian democracyConservatism Paulo Portas 9.1% PCP Portuguese Communist Party CommunismMarxism–Leninism Far-left Carlos Carvalhas8.6% PEV Ecologist Party "The Greens" Eco-socialismGreen politics Left-wing Isabel Castro

Campaign period Issues The campaign was dominated by the country's good economic situation, with António Guterres, Prime Minister and PS leader, campaigning intensely to win a majority, amidst pre-election polls predicting a comfortable PS majority, while the internal divisions that affected the center-right Social Democrats (PSD) at the beginning of the year also became evident during the campaign period. The last few days of the campaign were overshadowed by the death of fado singer Amália Rodrigues, with campaign events being cancelled."Há 20 anos, morte de Amália parou os partidos", TVI, 4 October 2019. Retrieved 15 June 2026.

Party slogans Party or alliance Original slogan English translation Refs PS « Portugal em boas mãos » "Portugal in good hands" PSD « Vamos cumprir » "We will deliver" CDS–PP « Alternativa'99 » "Alternative'99" CDU « Para que não fique tudo na mesma » "So that everything will not stay the same" BE « É tempo de ser exigente » "It's time to be demanding"

Candidates' debates 1999 Portuguese legislative election debates Date Organisers Moderator(s) PS PSD CDU CDS–PP Refs 16 Sep SIC José Alberto CarvalhoPPNN 17 Sep SIC José Alberto CarvalhoNNPP 19 Sep SIC José Alberto CarvalhoNPNP 20 Sep SIC José Alberto CarvalhoPNPN 21 Sep SIC José Alberto CarvalhoPNNP 22 Sep SIC José Alberto CarvalhoNPPN 23 Sep RTP1 Judite de SousaPPPP DateOrganisersPolling firm/Link PS PSD CDU CDS–PP Notes 16 Sep SIC SIC 57 25

Opinion polling

The following table shows the opinion polls of voting intention of the Portuguese voters before the election. Included is also the result of the Portuguese general elections in 1995 and 1999 for reference.

Note, until 2000, the publication of opinion polls in the last week of the campaign was forbidden.

1999 Portuguese legislative election

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