Opinion polling for the 2019 Australian federal election

In the leadup to the 2019 federal election, a number of polling companies conducted regular opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls collected data on party's primary vote, and contained an estimation of the two-party-preferred vote. They also asked questions about views of the electorate about the major party leaders.

Graphical summary

Voting intention +House of Representatives (lower house) polling Date Firm Primary vote TPP vote L/NP ALP GRN ONP OTH L/NP ALP18 May 2019 election41.44%33.34%10.4%3.08%11.74%51.53%48.47%18 May 2019 YouGov-Galaxy (Exit Poll)39%38%10%n/a10%48% 52%15–16 May 2019PM{Newspoll38%37%9%3%13%48.5% 51.5%13–15 May 2019YouGov-Galaxy39%37%9%3%12%49% 51%12–15 May 2019Ipsos39%33%13%4%11%49% 51%10–14 May 2019Essential38.5%36.2%9.1%6.6%9.6%48.5% 51.5%10–12 May 2019Roy Morgan38.5%35.5%10%4%12%48% 52%9–11 May 2019Newspoll39%37%9%4%11%49% 51% 8 May 2019 Third leaders' debate 2–6 May 2019Essential38%34%12%7%9%48% 52%4–5 May 2019Roy Morgan38.5%34%11%4%12.5%49% 51%2–5 May 2019Newspoll38%36%9%5%12%49% 51%1–4 May 2019Ipsos36%33%14%5%12%48% 52% 3 May 2019 Second leaders' debate 29 Apr 2019 First leaders' debate 25–29 Apr 2019Essential39%37%9%6%9%49% 51%27–28 Apr 2019Roy Morgan39.5%36%9.5%2.5%12.5%49% 51%26–28 Apr 2019Newspoll38%37%9%4%12%49% 51%23–25 Apr 2019Galaxy37%37%9%4%13%48% 52%20–21 Apr 2019Roy Morgan39%35.5%9.5%4.5%11.5%49% 51%11–14 Apr 2019Newspoll39%39%9%4%9%48% 52%11 Apr 2019 2019 federal election campaign begins4–8 Apr 2019Essential38%35%11%5%10%48% 52%6–7 Apr 2019Roy Morgan37%35%13.5%4%10.5%47.5% 52.5%4–7 Apr 2019Newspoll38%37%9%6%10%48% 52%3–6 Apr 2019Ipsos37%34%13%5%11%47% 53%25–28 Mar 2019Galaxy35%37%10%8%10%47% 53%20–25 Mar 2019Essential39%36%10%7%8%48% 52%6–11 Mar 2019Essential37%38%8%7%10%47% 53%7–10 Mar 2019Newspoll36%39%9%7%9%46% 54%20–25 Feb 2019Essential38%37%9%6%10%48% 52%21–24 Feb 2019Newspoll37%39%9%5%10%47% 53%12–15 Feb 2019Ipsos38%33%13%5%11%49% 51%6–11 Feb 2019Essential34%38%10%7%11%45% 55%7–10 Feb 2019Newspoll37%39%9%5%10%47% 53%23–31 Jan 2019Essential38%36%10%7%9%48% 52%24–27 Jan 2019Newspoll37%38%9%6%10%47% 53%9–13 Jan 2019Essential38%38%10%7%7%47% 53%13–16 Dec 2018Essential37%36%11%7%9%47% 53%12–15 Dec 2018Ipsos36%37%13%6%9%46% 54%6–9 Dec 2018Newspoll35%41%9%7%8%45% 55%29 Nov – 2 Dec 2018Essential38%39%10%6%7%46% 54%22–25 Nov 2018Newspoll34%40%9%8%9%45% 55%15–18 Nov 2018Essential37%35%11%7%10%48% 52%15–17 Nov 2018Ipsos37%34%13%5%11%48% 52%8–11 Nov 2018Newspoll35%40%9%6%10%45% 55%1–4 Nov 2018Essential36%39%10%6%9%46% 54%25–28 Oct 2018Newspoll36%39%9%6%10%46% 54%18–21 Oct 2018Essential38%37%10%7%8%47% 53%11–13 Oct 2018Newspoll37%38%11%6%8%47% 53%10–13 Oct 2018Ipsos35%35%15%5%10%45% 55%5–7 Oct 2018Essential37%36%12%5%10%47% 53%20–23 Sep 2018Essential37%36%12%5%10%47% 53%20–23 Sep 2018Newspoll36%39%10%6%9%46% 54%12–15 Sep 2018Ipsos34%31%15%7%13%47% 53%6–9 Sep 2018Essential36%37%10%8%9%46% 54%6–9 Sep 2018Newspoll34%42%10%6%8%44% 56%25–26 Aug 2018Roy Morgan36.5%36%13%2.5%12%46% 54%24–26 Aug 2018Essential35%39%10%7%9%45% 55%24–25 Aug 2018Newspoll33%41%10%7%9%44% 56%24 Aug 2018 Scott Morrison elected Prime Minister in leadership spill against Malcolm Turnbull15–18 Aug 2018Ipsos33%35%13%8%11%45% 55%9-12 Aug 2018Newspoll37%35%10%9%9%49% 51%2-2 Aug 2018ReachTEL37%34%12%8%8%48% 52%26-29 Jul 2018Newspoll39%36%10%7%8%49% 51%12-15 Jul 2018Essential40%36%10%6%8%49% 51%12-15 Jul 2018Newspoll38%36%10%7%9%49% 51%28 Jun - 1 Jul 2018Essential40%37%11%6%6%48% 52%28 Jun - 1 Jul 2018Newspoll39%37%9%6%9%49% 51%21–24 Jun 2018Ipsos35%35%12%6%12%47% 53%14–17 Jun 2018Newspoll38%38%10%6%8%48% 52%14–17 Jun 2018Essential38%35%11%7%9%48% 52%2 Jun 2018ReachTEL35%34%11%9%11%48% 52%31 May – 3 Jun 2018Essential36%37%10%8%9%46% 54%24–27 May 2018Newspoll38%38%9%8%7%48% 52%17–20 May 2018Essential40%36%10%8%7%49% 51%10–13 May 2018Essential38%36%10%7%8%48% 52%10–13 May 2018Newspoll39%38%9%6%8%49% 51%10–12 May 2018Ipsos36%37%11%5%11%46% 54%3–6 May 2018Essential38%37%10%6%9%47% 53%30 Apr 2018ReachTEL36%35%11%6%12%48% 52%19–22 Apr 2018Essential37%36%11%8%8%47% 53%19-22 Apr 2018Newspoll38%37%9%7%9%49% 51%5–8 Apr 2018Essential38%37%10%7%8%47% 53%5–8 Apr 2018Newspoll38%37%10%7%8%48% 52%3–5 Apr 2018Ipsos36%34%12%8%10%48% 52%24 Mar – 1 Apr 2018Roy Morgan38.5%37.5%11%3%10%49% 51%28 Mar 2018ReachTEL34%36%10%7%13%46% 54%22–25 Mar 2018Essential38%36%9%8%9%48% 52%22–25 Mar 2018Newspoll37%39%9%7%8%47% 53%17–25 Mar 2018Roy Morgan40%35%12%3.5%9.5%49% 51%8–11 Mar 2018Essential36%38%9%8%9%46% 54%3–11 Mar 2018Roy Morgan36%36%13.5%3%11.5%46% 54%1–4 Mar 2018Newspoll37%38%9%7%9%47% 53%22–25 Feb 2018Essential35%35%10%8%12%47% 53%24 Feb 2018ReachTEL33%37%11%7%12%46% 54%15–18 Feb 2018Newspoll36%37%10%8%9%47% 53%8–11 Feb 2018Essential36%37%10%6%11%46% 54%1–3 Feb 2018Newspoll38%37%10%5%10%48% 52%26–28 Jan 2018Essential35%36%10%8%11%46% 54%25 Jan 2018ReachTEL34%36%10%8%12%48% 52%11–15 Jan 2018Essential37%38%9%6%10%47% 53%19 Dec 2017Essential37%38%9%7%9%47% 53%14–17 Dec 2017Newspoll36%37%10%7%10%47% 53%12 Dec 2017Essential35%38%10%7%9%46% 54%7–10 Dec 2017YouGov34%35%11%8%13%50%50%5 Dec 2017Essential35%38%9%8%10%45% 55%30 Nov − 3 Dec 2017Newspoll36%37%10%8%9%47% 53%29 Nov 2017ReachTEL33%36%10%9%12%47% 53%28 Nov 2017Essential36%38%9%8%9%46% 54%23–27 Nov 2017YouGov32%32%10%11%16%47% 53%21 Nov 2017Essential35%38%9%8%10%46% 54%14 Nov 2017YouGov31%34%11%11%14%48% 52%14 Nov 2017Essential36%38%9%8%10%46% 54%13 Nov 2017Newspoll34%38%9%10%9%45% 55%30 Oct 2017Essential36%37%10%7%9%46% 54%26–29 Oct 2017Newspoll35%37%10%9%9%46% 54%24 Oct 2017Essential37%36%9%8%10%48% 52%12–15 Oct 2017Newspoll36%37%10%9%8%46% 54%4 Oct 2017Essential36%38%10%7%10%46% 54%1 Oct 2017ReachTEL36%38%9%8%9%47% 53%26 Sep 2017Essential37%37%10%7%9%47% 53%21–24 Sep 2017Newspoll36%38%9%8%9%46% 54%19 Sep 2017Essential38%36%10%8%8%48% 52%14–18 Sep 2017YouGov34%35%11%9%11%50%50%12 Sep 2017Essential36%37%10%9%8%46% 54%6–9 Sep 2017Ipsos35%34%14%1%15%47% 53%5 Sep 2017Essential36%37%10%8%9%47% 53%31 Aug – 4 Sep 2017YouGov34%32%12%9%13%50%50%28 Aug – 2 Sep 2017Newspoll37%38%9%8%8%47% 53%29 Aug 2017Essential37%36%10%8%9%47% 53%23 Aug 2017ReachTEL34.5%36.7%10.3%10.4%8.2%48% 52%22 Aug 2017Essential37%37%9%8%9%47% 53%17–21 Aug 2017YouGov34%33%10%10%13%51%49%17–20 Aug 2017Newspoll35%38%9%9%9%46% 54%15 Aug 2017Essential37%39%9%8%7%46% 54%8 Aug 2017Essential37%39%9%8%7%46% 54%3–6 Aug 2017Newspoll36%36%11%8%9%47% 53%1 Aug 2017Essential38%36%10%8%8%48% 52%25 Jul 2017Essential38%37%10%7%8%47% 53%20–24 Jul 2017YouGov36%33%10%8%13%50%50%20–23 Jul 2017Newspoll36%37%9%9%9%47% 53%19 Jul 2017ReachTEL37.2%35.1%8.8%11.7%7.2%49% 51%18 Jul 2017Essential36%38%10%7%9%46% 54% 6–11 Jul 2017YouGov36%33%12%7%12%52%48%6–9 Jul 2017Newspoll35%36%10%11%8%47% 53% 29 June 2017ReachTEL36.4%35.4%10.2%9.6%8.3%48% 52% 22–27 Jun 2017YouGov33%34%12%7%14%49% 51% 15–18 Jun 2017Newspoll36%37%9%11%7%47% 53% 14 June 2017Essential38%36%10%8%8%48% 52% 26–29 May 2017Newspoll36%36%10%9%9%47% 53% 23 May 2017Essential37%38%10%6%9%46% 54% 12–15 May 2017Newspoll36%36%10%9%9%47% 53% 11 May 2017ReachTEL38%34.1%10.9%11%6%47% 53% 10–11 May 2017Ipsos37%35%13%2%13%47% 53% 26–30 Apr 2017Essential38%37%9%7%9%47% 53% 20–23 Apr 2017Newspoll36%35%9%10%10%48% 52% 13–16 Apr 2017Essential36%37%10%8%10%46% 54% 6–9 Apr 2017Essential37%36%10%8%9%47% 53% 1–4 Apr 2017Essential37%36%10%8%9%47% 53% 30 Mar – 2 Apr 2017Newspoll36%36%10%10%8%47% 53% 24–27 Mar 2017Essential35%37%10%8%11%46% 54% 22–25 Mar 2017Ipsos33%34%16%2%15%45% 55% 17–20 Mar 2017Essential34%37%9%10%9%45% 55% 16–19 Mar 2017Newspoll37%35%9%10%9%48% 52% 10–13 Mar 2017Essential35%36%9%11%9%47% 53% 3–6 Mar 2017Essential37%37%9%9%8%47% 53% 23–26 Feb 2017Newspoll34%37%10%10%9%45% 55% 16–19 Feb 2017Essential36%34%10%10%10%48% 52% 9–12 Feb 2017Essential36%35%9%10%9%48% 52% 2–5 Feb 2017Newspoll35%36%10%8%11%46% 54% 20–23 Jan 2017Essential35%37%10%9%8%46% 54% 13–16 Jan 2017Essential38%37%9%8%8%47% 53% 12 Jan 2017ReachTEL37.1%35.0%9.8%10.6%7.5%46% 54% 9–12 Dec 2016Essential37%37%9%7%9%47% 53% 1–4 Dec 2016Newspoll39%36%10%5%10%48% 52% 25–28 Nov 2016Essential39% 36% 9% 7% 9% 49% 51% 24–26 Nov 2016Ipsos36%30%16%7%9%49% 51% 17–20 Nov 2016Newspoll38%38%10%4%10%47% 53% 11–14 Nov 2016Essential37%37% 11% 6% 9% 47% 53% 3–6 Nov 2016Newspoll39%38%10% –13%47% 53% 20–23 Oct 2016Newspoll39%37%10%5%9%48% 52% 14–17 Oct 2016Essential37%37% 11% 5% 9% 47% 53% 7–10 Oct 2016Essential38% 36% 10% 6% 10% 48% 52% 6–9 Oct 2016Newspoll39%36%10%6%9%48% 52% 22–25 Sep 2016Newspoll38%37%10% –15%48% 52% 9–12 Sep 2016Essential38%37%10%5%11%48% 52% 8–11 Sep 2016Newspoll41%36%9% –14%50%50% 26–29 Aug 2016 Essential40% 37% 10% – 13% 49% 51% 25–28 Aug 2016Newspoll41%36%9% –14%50%50% 19–22 Aug 2016 Essential39% 36% 10% – 15% 49% 51% 12–15 Aug 2016 Essential39% 37% 10% – 14% 48% 52% 5–8 Aug 2016 Essential40% 37% 10% – 13% 48% 52% 27 Jul – 1 Aug 2016 Essential39% 37% 10% – 14% 48% 52% 20–24 Jul 2016 Essential39% 37% 10% – 14% 48% 52% 13–17 Jul 2016 Essential39% 36% 10% – 15% 49% 51% 6–10 Jul 2016 Essential41% 36% 10% – 13% 49% 51% 30 Jun – 3 Jul 2016 Essential41% 37% 10% – 12% 50% 50%2 July 2016 election42.0%34.7%10.2%1.3%11.8%50.4%49.6%28 Jun – 1 Jul 2016Newspoll42%35%10% –13% 50.5%49.5%30 Jun 2016ReachTEL42.8%34.6%10.7% –12%51%49%27–30 Jun 2016 Essential42.5%34.5%11.5% –12%50.5%49.5%28–29 Jun 2016 Galaxy43%36%10% –11%51%49%26–29 Jun 2016 Ipsos40%33%13% –14%50%50%

Preferred prime minister, and satisfaction

+ Leadership polling Date FirmPreferred prime ministerMorrisonShorten Morrison Shorten Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied 15–16 May 2019 Newspoll45% 38%46%45%41%49% 12–15 May 2019 Ipsos47% 40%48%43%43%48% 1–4 Apr 2019 Ipsos46% 35%47%44%40%51% 3–6 Apr 2019 IpsosBudget well received, but no bounce for Morrison46% 35%48%39%36%51% 17 Feb 2019 Ipsos48% 38%49%40%40%52% 7–10 Feb 2019 Newspoll44% 35%43%45%36%51% 13–15 Dec 2018 Ipsos46% 37%47%39%41%50% 8–11 Nov 2018 Newspoll42% 36%39%47%35%50% 25–28 Oct 2018 Newspoll43% 35%41%44%37%50% 19–21 Oct 2018 Essential42% 27%43%28%33%28% 22–24 Sep 2018 Essential39% 27%37%31%35%31% 20–23 Sep 2018 Newspoll45% 32%44%39%32%54% 8–10 Sep 2018 Essential39% 27%37%31%35%43% 6–9 Sep 2018 Newspoll42% 36%41%39%37%51% 24–25 Aug 2018 Newspoll 33%39%––––24 Aug 2018 Scott Morrison replaces Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader Turnbull ShortenTurnbullShorten 9–12 Aug 2018 Newspoll44% 32%36%55%32%56% 26–29 Jul 2018 Newspoll48% 29%42%48%32%57% 18–21 Jul 2018 Ipsos57% 30%55%38%38%54% 16 July 2018 Newspoll48% 29%39%50%33%55% 10–13 May 2018 Newspoll46% 32%41%49%32%56% 3–6 May 2018 Essential40% 26%40%42%37%41% 4–6 Mar 2018 Essential37% 35%---- 26–30 Apr 2017 Essential45% 31%35%47%33%47% 20–23 Apr 2017 Newspoll42% 33%32%57%33%53% 30 Mar – 2 April 2017 Newspoll41% 32%30%59%32%54% 22–25 Mar 2017 Ipsos45% 33%---- 17–20 Mar 2017 Essential43% 29%---- 16–19 Mar 2017 Newspoll43% 29%30%57%29%57% 10–13 Mar 2017 Essential38% 26%33%50%30%49% 23–26 Feb 2017 Newspoll40% 33%29%59%30%56% 2–5 Feb 2017 Newspoll42% 30%35%54%32%54% 1–4 Dec 2016 Newspoll41% 32%32%55%34%51% 24–26 Nov 2016 Ipsos51% 30%45%45%37%53% 17–20 Nov 2016 Newspoll43% 33%34%54%36%51% 3–6 Nov 2016 Newspoll42% 32%30%58%36%51% 20–23 Oct 2016 Newspoll42% 32%29%57%36%51% 6–9 Oct 2016 Newspoll45% 30%31%56%35%51% 9–12 Sep 2016 Essential41% 26%35%43%36%41% 8–11 Sep 2016 Newspoll43% 31%34%53%35%52% 25–28 Aug 2016 Newspoll43% 32%34%52%36%50% 5–8 Aug 2016 Essential40% 30%38%43%37%41% 6–10 Jul 2016 Essential39% 31%37%48%39%41%2 July 2016 election 28 Jun – 1 July 2016 Newspoll48% 31%40%47%36%51% 30 June 2016 ReachTEL52.9% 47.1%---- 26–29 Jun 2016 Ipsos49% 35%49%41%42%50% 23–26 Jun 2016 Essential40% 29%40%40%37%39%^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.

See also 2019 Australian federal election Electorate opinion polling for the 2019 Australian federal election

References