2019 Salvadoran presidential election

Presidential elections were held in El Salvador on 3 February 2019, with Salvadorans electing the president and vice president for a five-year term from 2019 to 2024.

The election resulted in victory for Nayib Bukele of the right-wing Grand Alliance for National Unity (GANA), who received 53%, defeating Carlos Calleja of the right-wing Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA), Hugo Martínez of the left-wing Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN) and Josué Alvarado of the centrist Vamos party. With his victory, Bukele became the first president since José Napoleón Duarte (1984–1989) to not be a member of either ARENA or the FMLN, which had controlled the presidency in a two-party system from 1989 to 2019.

Prior to the elections, Bukele held a lead against Calleja, Martínez and Alvarado in virtually every poll conducted between July 2018 and January 2019. A second round in March was rendered unnecessary as Bukele won an outright majority; Bukele won a plurality in all of the country's fourteen departments, winning an outright majority in eight of them. Bukele was inaugurated on 1 June 2019.

Background

Presidency of Salvador Sánchez Cerén

Salvador Sánchez Cerén, the then vice president of El Salvador, won the 2014 presidential election by a narrow margin. As a member of the left-wing Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN), he defeated Norman Quijano, the then mayor of San Salvador of the right-wing Nationalist Republican Alliance, in that election's second round, winning 50.11 percent of the vote by a margin of 6,364 votes. Sánchez Cerén was inaugurated on 1 June 2014, succeeding fellow FMLN President Mauricio Funes. He was the first former guerrilla fighter from the Salvadoran Civil War to be elected president.

Although in control of the presidency, the FMLN did not have a majority of the Legislative Assembly, with power being divided between it, ARENA, and various other political parties. In the 2015 legislative election, the FMLN won 31 seats and ARENA won 35 seats, with the remaining 18 seats being controlled by other parties. In the succeeding 2018 legislative election, the FMLN fell to 23 seats while ARENA increased to 38 seats, with the remaining 23 seats being controlled by other parties. Electoral system

Electoral procedure

In October 2017, the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE) scheduled El Salvador's upcoming 2019 presidential election to occur on 3 February 2019, with a possible second round being scheduled for 10 March 2019. In the election, Salvadorans would elect the country's president and vice president to serve a five-year term from 2019 to 2024.

A presidential candidate needed to win an absolute majority (50%+1) to be declared the winner of the election. If no candidate received an absolute majority, a second between the two candidates with the most valid votes would have occurred. All presidential and vice presidential candidates must have been at least 30 years old and be Salvadoran citizens by birth.

Political parties

Party Leader Participated? PDC Christian Democratic Party Rodolfo Parker CD Democratic Change Douglas Avilés FMLN Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front Medardo González GANA Grand Alliance for National Unity Andrés Rovira V Let's Go Josué Alvarado PCN National Coalition Party Manuel Rodríguez ARENA Nationalist Republican Alliance Mauricio Interiano DS Salvadoran Democracy FPS Salvadoran Patriotic Fraternity PSP FPS Notes:

Electoral dates

The following tables lists dates which mark events which related to the election.

Date Event 2 February 2018 Deadline for voters to change address 4 April 2018 Deadline for parties to convoke primary elections 2 October 2018 Beginning of electoral campaigning 5 October 2018 Deadline for the TSE to convoke the presidential election 3 February 2019 Presidential election 10 March 2019 Second round (if necessary)

Electoral campaigns

Nationalist Republican Alliance

On 27 October 2017, , the president of the Nationalist Republican Alliance, announced that the party would hold its primary election on 22 April 2018. Six members of the party expressed interest in securing the party's presidential nomination:

Gerardo Awad, businessman Carlos Calleja, businessman Gustavo López, businessman Rafael Montalvo, former deputy of the Legislative Assembly Luis Parada, lawyer Javier Simán, businessman

In October 2017, Parada withdrew his candidacy, believing that his campaign would be impossible. In December 2017, Awad and Montalvo were eliminated from competition, while Calleja, Simán, and López advanced to the party's primary election where Calleja won 60.8 percent of the vote, officially becoming the party's presidential nominee.

Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front

On 28 February 2018, the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front announced that it would hold its primary election on 27 May 2018. Óscar Ortiz, the then vice president of El Salvador, was a potential candidate to secure the party's nomination, but he declined to run after Salvador Cerén appointed him as the technical secretary of the presidency. Two party members announced their intention to seek the party's presidential nomination:

, former deputy of the Legislative Assembly Hugo Martínez, minister of foreign affairs (2014–2018)

On 27 May 2018, Hugo Martínez was selected as the party's presidential nominee, winning 72.09 percent of the vote. The party elected Karina Sosa, a former deputy of the Legislative Assembly, as the party's vice presidential nominee.

Grand Alliance for National Unity

The Grand Alliance for National Unity held its primary election on 29 July 2018. Two candidates participated in the election, Nayib Bukele, the former mayor of San Salvador from 2015 to 2018, and , the former mayor of San Miguel, but the day before the election, Salgado announced that he withdrew from the primary. Although Salgado withdrew, his name was still on the ballot, but regardless, Bukele won 93.71 percent of the vote and was selected as the party's presidential nominee. Bukele's campaign slogan was "Let's Make History" ("").

Presidential candidates

Party Candidate Running mate Grand Alliancefor National Unity Nayib Bukele Félix Ulloa NationalistRepublicanAlliance Carlos Calleja Carmen Lazo Farabundo MartíNational LiberationFront Hugo Martínez Karina Sosa Vamos Josué Alvarado Roberto Rivera

Debates

Two presidential debates were held; the first was hosted by the University of El Salvador (UES) on 16 December 2018 and the second was hosted by the (ASDER). Calleja, Martínez, and Alvarado attended both debates, while Bukele was absent from both.

2019 Salvadoran presidential election debates Date Organizers ARENA FMLN VAMOS GANA UES PCalleja PMartínez PAlvarado ABukele ASDER PCalleja PMartínez PAlvarado ABukele

Opinion polls

Opinion polling from July 2018 through January 2019 consistently gave Bukele a lead over Calleja, Martínez, and Alvarado.

Presidential election polls Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize Calleja Martínez Alvarado Bukele Undecided None Lead CONARES 17 Jan 2019 2,012 19.0 13.0 1.0 61.0 3.0 3.0 42.0 CDOP 17 Jan 2019 1,300 27.3 10.5 1.0 36.1 9.6 15.1 8.8 CIOPS/UTEC 16 Jan 2019 2,113 24.0 8.1 0.6 40.4 26.1 – 16.4 UFG 15 Jan 2019 1,536 21.8 8.1 1.0 42.6 18.4 8.1 20.8 CIG-Gallup 11 Jan 2019 1,000 23.0 8.0 1.0 42.0 26.0 – 19.0 Mitofsky 8 Jan 2019 1,000 31.0 11.0 1.0 57.0 – – 26.0 IUDOP/UCA 13 Dec 2018 1,806 19.7 10.6 0.8 44.1 22.3 2.5 24.4 TResearch 11 Dec 2018 1,000 31.0 10.3 1.3 57.4 – – 26.4 UES 10 Dec 2018 1,557 17.34 8.73 0.26 48.43 25.24 – 31.09 Fundaungo 7 Dec 2018 1,985 21.4 11.3 0.6 42.0 15.0 9.7 20.6 TResearch 5 Dec 2018 1,000 31.3 10.4 1.3 57.0 – – 25.7 CIOPS/UTEC 5 Dec 2018 2,133 24.5 10.4 0.9 40.5 12.8 10.9 16.0 La Prensa Gráfica 29 Nov 2018 2,000 16.8 6.9 0.5 28.9 5.7 41.2 12.1 TResearch 25 Nov 2018 1,000 31.9 10.8 1.4 55.9 – – 24.0 Fundaungo 20 Nov 2018 1,068 14.2 10.2 1.9 35.1 10.0 28.6 20.9 UFG 19 Nov 2018 1,538 21.4 6.4 1.5 40.7 21.2 8.7 19.3 CID-Gallup 1 Nov 2018 1,000 28.0 16.0 1.0 44.0 – 1.0 16.0 TResearch 29 Oct 2018 1,000 32.2 9.0 0.9 56.6 – 1.3 24.4 TResearch 24 Oct 2018 1,000 32.1 9.3 1.1 56.5 – 1.0 24.4 ICP 23 Oct 2018 1,400 31.7 13.6 0.6 33.3 – 20.8 1.6 TResearch 15 Oct 2018 1,000 31.8 9.4 1.0 56.1 – 1.7 24.3 CIOPS/UTEC 9 Oct 2018 2,133 21.0 10.5 1.0 48.0 19.5 – 27.0 CONARES 8 Oct 2018 1,400 21.0 11.0 1.0 45.0 11.0 11.0 24.0 TResearch 1 Oct 2018 1,000 32.4 10.9 1.1 54.6 – 1.0 22.2 CID-Gallup 26 Sept 2018 1,205 20.0 7.0 1.0 45.0 27.0 – 25.0 La Prensa Gráfica 31 Aug 2018 1,520 17.6 8.6 0.3 21.9 37.5 14.1 4.3 UFG 28 Aug 2018 1,295 23.0 10.0 2.3 37.7 26.0 1.0 14.7 TResearch 19 Aug 2018 3,600 30.2 9.7 1.1 55.9 – 3.1 25.7 TResearch 31 Jul 2018 3,600 31.7 9.7 2.8 55.8 – – 24.1 CID-Gallup 30 Jul 2018 806 24.0 5.0 0.0 38.0 33.0 – 14.0 2014 election 9 Mar 2014 N/A 49.89 50.11 – – – – 0.22

Results

Results by department

The following table displays the number of votes each candidate received from each of the country's 14 departments as well as from the exterior vote. The candidate with the most votes in a department is highlighted in their party's color and the runner-up in a department is in .

Department Calleja Martínez Alvarado Bukele Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Ahuachapán 50,051 36.10 28,257 20.38 660 0.47 59,689 43.05 Cabañas 26,325 39.61 8,586 12.92 199 0.30 31,346 47.17 Chalatenango 30,364 32.40 20,934 22.34 316 0.34 42,092 44.92 Cuscatlán 39,098 33.89 17,882 15.50 609 0.52 57,795 50.09 La Libertad 117,092 37.25 33,823 9.85 3,756 1.10 177,832 51.80 La Paz 40,762 29.41 17,357 12.53 656 0.47 79,803 57.59 La Unión 29,138 31.82 12,256 13.39 295 0.32 49,871 54.47 Morazán 26,007 32.13 23,102 28.54 193 0.23 31,649 39.10 San Miguel 43,960 24.36 37,529 20.80 906 0.50 98,064 54.34 San Salvador 246,792 29.99 86,656 10.53 9,582 1.16 479,991 58.32 Santa Ana 77,550 34.09 24,695 10.86 1,821 0.80 123,413 54.25 San Vicente 22,786 31.33 15,921 21.89 266 0.36 33,765 46.42 Sonsonate 60,796 31.62 28,599 14.87 1,095 0.57 101,794 52.94 Usulután 35,422 26.47 33,350 24.93 406 0.30 64,619 48.30 Exterior vote 165 4.52 342 9.39 3 0.09 3,133 86.00 Total 857,084 31.72 389,289 14.41 20,763 0.77 1,434,856 53.10 Source: TSE

2019 Salvadoran presidential election

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