Climate change adaptation strategies on the German coast include European, national, and regional politics, different economic and civilian sectors as well as coastal protection. In general, climate change refers to statistically identifiable changes in climate properties that persist over a longer period of time.IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) defines it as a change in climate caused by human activity that can be observed in addition to natural climate variability. This can be described as anthropogenic climate change. Climate change poses local level impacts on the German coast and for the present and future, suitable adaptation strategies are necessary. In 2008, the Federal Cabinet of Germany decided on a German Climate Change Adaptation Strategy with the objective of creating a national action framework for reducing the risks for the population, habitats as well as the economy.
Adaptation is a contested, widely discussed term with no general definition. For the German Adaptation Strategy the definition of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is utilized, stating that adaptation is the adjustment of natural or human systems to occurring or expected changes in climate in order to reduce harm. This approach views climate change as the major source of vulnerability and does not consider any social causes. The German Coast comprises 1600 km to the west at the North Sea and 2100 km to the east at the Baltic Sea. In total, five states border the German coast. Lower Saxony, Bremen and Hamburg are part of the North Sea region; Mecklenburg-Vorpommern border the Baltic Sea and Schleswig-Holstein is located at both seas. Coast can be defined as the zone where the land is considerably influenced by the sea and vice versa.
History of climate change adaptation at the German coast The coastal inhabitants in Germany have always been exposed to the forces of nature, especially to storm floods and had to adapt to changing conditions. It is assumed that in Schleswig-Holstein in the 11th century, people started to build dykes to protect living and usable spaces from sea level rise and storm floods. Adaptation especially to the Anthropogenic Climate Change started in the 21st century, although initially the focus has been on climate protection. The German Government took up climate change adaptation for the first time in 2005 in the frame of its climate protection programme.
Climate change impacts on the German coast Certain and reliable predictions for impacts of anthropogenic climate change on the German coast regarding temperature, precipitation, sea level and storm flood heights do not exist. Different models show different results and it is assumed that all changes in the range of the results have the same likelihood to occur. For the end of the 21st century, the temperature is expected to rise between +0.6 °C and +6.2 °C in comparison to 1961–1990. For the same period of time, a change of precipitation between -47% and +73% is likely.
Sea level and storm floods are complex phenomena and are influenced by diverse factors, such as astronomical (tides), meteorological (wind), and tectonic (isostatic movements) variables which makes it even more difficult to predict how they will change with climate change. At the Baltic Sea, sea level is expected to rise in line with the expected global average rise in sea level. According to the Intergovernmental Penal on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report, global average sea level is predicted to rise 0.26-0.55 m in the period 2081–2100 in relation to 1986-2005 sea level. Studies show that at the German North Sea coast, sea level from 1843-2008 has risen between 1,6 and 1,8 mm per year. Higher values have been observed at the west coast of Schleswig-Holstein and lower values at the Lower Saxon coast. In future, sea level rise at the North Sea is expected to be higher than the global average as a result of post-glacial land depression. There is now statistical evidence existing on how the storm flood height will change in future at the Baltic Sea. At both seas, a rise in storm flood height is expected due to climate change related sea level rise.
Politics of climate change adaptation European, national as well as regional politics play a role in climate change adaptation at the German North Sea coast and Baltic Sea coast. In 2009, the European Union presented the White Paper Adapting to Climate Change: Towards a European framework for action which was a first approach to joint climate change adaptation politics. In 2013, the European Union established the EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change. National and local climate change adaptation programs for the German coast are often considered as part of the EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change. In a local setting, urban planning is an important part of adaptation politics.
European climate change adaptation politics for the North Sea and Baltic Sea The German North Sea is part of the North Sea Region (NSR) Program 2014 - 2020 of the European Climate Adaptation Platform (Climate-ADAPT). This regional European development fund includes coastal zones of the United Kingdom, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, Sweden and Norway. NSR developed a cooperation program, which was adopted by the European Commission in August 2015. The cooperation program focuses on adaptation to climate change impacts and on preserving the environment, stimulating a green economy, promoting green transportation and mobility as well as supporting growth in the North Sea Region. Another actor in climate change adaptation in the German North Sea Region is the Wadden Sea Secretariat, a cooperation between Denmark, The Netherlands, and Germany that has been established in 1978 to protect the Wadden Sea as an ecological entity. The Wadden Sea Secretariat addresses and communicates the impacts of climate change on the Wadden Sea. In 1998, the working group Coastal Protection and Sea Level Rise (CPSL) was founded, dealing with the impacts of climate change. Until 2010, the CPSL has published three reports, which provided information for governmental conferences.
The Baltic Sea Region Program was developed by the EU Climate Adaptation Platform (Climate-ADAPT) to strengthen development and cooperation between the abutting nations of the Baltic Sea. In 2013, the predecessor EU Project BALTADAPT (Baltic Sea Region Climate Change Adaptation Strategy) published an action plan for climate change adaptation in the Baltic Sea regions. It focused on strategies for building and sharing knowledge of climate change adaptation, mainstreaming it and on connecting the strategies of the nations in the Baltic Sea Region to adapt to climate change.
German climate change adaptation politics for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea The political framework for climate change adaptation in Germany is given by the German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change (2008). Regarding climate change at the North Sea and the Baltic Sea, the strategy states that the expected magnitude of damage due to climate change is unclear. In 2011, the German government presented an action plan for climate change adaptation which includes resolutions from the Wadden Sea Secretariat for the North Sea Region. In behalf of the Federal Environmental Agency (UBA), the project KüstenKlima (2014) by the Institut Raum & Energie (...) published a strategy for climate protection and climate change adaptation at the German coast mainly due to coastal management. In the report, it was highlighted that an integrated coastal zone management (IKZM) is an important method for adaptation. IKZM is an informal management approach to strengthen sustainable development by means of integration, communication, good coordination practice, and participation. The Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) facilitates the project KLIMZUG - Klimawandel in Regionen zukunftsfähig gestalten (2008-2014) which includes adaptation strategies in seven model regions in Germany. The "KLIMZUG" program aimed to integrate climate change adaptation processes into regional development. Three of this model regions are located at the German coast. The program "KLIMZUG-NORD" focuses on the metropolitan region Hamburg, the program "RADOST" on adaptation strategies for the German Baltic Sea coast and "nordwest2050" is a research project for climate change adaptation and innovation processes for the metropolitan region of Bremen and Oldenburg.
At the level of Länder there are also individual climate change adaptation programs.
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern The state government of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern presented a first climate protection program in the year 1997 (Aktionsplan Klimaschutz Mecklenburg-Vorpommern).
The Baltic Sea region of Mecklenburg Vorpommern is part of the EU BALTADAPT program.
Schleswig-Holstein Based on the German adaptation strategy to climate change, the state government of Schleswig-Holstein for the first time presented a strategy for climate change adaptation (Fahrplan Anpassung an den Klimawandel) in 2011. The program was updated in 2017. The proximity to North Sea and Baltic Sea strongly influenced the program which can be recognized in the highlighted topics water economy and protection of the sea and soil.
Bremen Besides actions in coastal protection, there is the project KLAS - Klimaanpassungsstrategie an extreme Regenereignisse in der Stadtgemeinde Bremen promoted by the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU). The program aims to develop a better risk management for strong rain events.
Hamburg Hamburg is a model region for the national project KLIMZUG-NORD. A strategy for climate change adaptation was developed in 2011. In 2013, an action plan for climate change adaptation was published.
Lower-Saxony The state government of Lower-Saxony established a government commission for climate protection and adaptation in 2008 to develop a strategy for climate change adaptation and protection. In 2013, the state government enacted the Klimapolitische Umsetzungsstrategie Niedersachen. This program includes coastal protection strategies.
Adaptation strategies in coastal protection According to DIN 4047–2, coastal protection comprises measures defending the shoreline against destructive interactions with the sea. That includes the protection of the coastal lowlands against flooding to allow the use of these areas as well as the protection of the coastline against shoreline recession and coastal erosion.
When it comes to climate change adaptation, coastal protection in Germany divides into three categories of measures:
Defence of the existing coastline "hard" solutions (e.g. heightening and fortification of levees) "soft" solutions (e.g. establishment of shallow water areas for retention of floods) Adaptation to extreme weather events, e.g. by building on dwelling mounds or other forms of constructional preventions Moving away from coastal areas to less affected regions, not using or extensively using the coastal regions
Coastal protection policy