A by-election for the Australian House of Representatives seat of Longman took place on Saturday 28 July 2018, following the resignation of incumbent Labor MP Susan Lamb.

In early counting, within an hour of the close of polls, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's psephologist Antony Green's electoral computer had predicted Labor to retain the electorate with an increased margin.

The by-election occurred on the same day as four other by-elections for the House of Representatives, colloquially known as Super Saturday. The result in Longman has been noted as helping to accelerate the replacement of Malcolm Turnbull as prime minister and Liberal leader in the following month. Turnbull himself did not help his stock when he made the by-election as a direct leadership contest between himself and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten.

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Background Due to the High Court ruling against Senator Katy Gallagher on 9 May 2018 as part of the ongoing parliamentary eligibility crisis, Lamb and three other MPs in the same situation announced their parliamentary resignations later that day, while the Perth incumbent resigned for family reasons. The Speaker announced on 24 May 2018 that he had scheduled the by-elections to occur on 28 July 2018. Popularly labelled "Super Saturday", the occurrence of five simultaneous federal by-elections is unprecedented in Australian political history. The others are: 2018 Braddon by-election 2018 Fremantle by-election 2018 Mayo by-election 2018 Perth by-election

Mark Latham, Labor leader between December 2003 and January 2005, voiced a robocall authorised by Pauline Hanson, in an attempt to discourage Labor voting and instead encouraged minor party voting.

The Labor party and Liberal National placed the far right anti immigration Australia First Party last on its preferences.

Key dates Key dates in relation to the by-election are: Thursday, 10 May 2018 – Speaker acceptance of resignation Friday, 15 June 2018 – Issue of writ Friday, 22 June 2018 – Close of electoral rolls (8pm) Thursday, 5 July 2018 – Close of nominations (12 noon) Friday, 6 July 2018 – Declaration of nominations (12 noon) Tuesday, 10 July 2018 – Start of early voting Saturday, 28 July 2018 – Polling day (8am to 6pm) Friday, 10 August 2018 – Last day for receipt of postal votes Sunday, 23 September 2018 – Last day for return of writs

Candidates Candidates (11) in ballot paper order PartyCandidateBackground Liberal DemocratsLloyd RussellBusiness consultant. Australia FirstJim SaleamParty leader. Contested Lindsay at the 2016 election and Cook at the 2013 election. Democratic LabourGregory BellTruck driver. IndependentJackie PerkinsSelf-employed mobile veterinarian.Dr Jackie Perkins: Facebook ScienceJames NoonanCriminology and criminal justice graduate. One NationMatthew StephenCaboolture businessman. Ran in Sandgate at the 2017 state election. PeopleJohn ReeceRan as an independent candidate in Longman at the 2010 federal election. LaborSusan LambPrevious MP for Longman elected at the 2016 federal election. Liberal NationalTrevor RuthenbergOne-term MP for Kallangur elected at the 2012 state election. Country Blair VerrierCertified Practising Accountant (CPA). GreensGavin BehrensCaboolture father and IT professional. Ran in Morayfield at the 2017 state election.Gavin Behrens: greens.org.au

Polling +Longman by-election pollingDateFirmCommissioned bySamplePrimary voteTPP voteALPLNPONPGRNOTHUNDALPLNP24−26 July 2018NewspollThe Australian1015 40% 36% 14% 5% 5% − 51% 49%17−19 July 2018ReachTELCourier MailLongman by-election: ReachTEL poll indicates LNP will win - Courier Mail 21 July 201857835.8%37.9%13.9%(OTH)4.3%3.9% 49% 51%26 June 2018ReachTELCourier MailLongman by-election: Seat slipping away from Labor's Susan Lamb - Courier Mail 27 June 2018Longman ReachTEL poll exclusive: Key electorate fires warning shot at Shorten - Courier Mail 27 June 201881439.0%35.5%14.7%(OTH)6.6%4.1% 49% 51%21 June 2018ReachTELAustralia Institute72739.1%34.9%14.7%4.4%3.7%3.2% 50% 50%2 June 2018ReachTELSky News>800 35% 38% (OTH) 2% 14% 11% 48% 52%10 May 2018ReachTELAustralia Institute1277 32.5% 36.7% 15.1% 4.9% 6.4% 4.5% 47% 53% 2016 election 35.4% 39.0% 9.4% 4.4% 11.8% 50.8% 49.2%

Results

See also July 2018 Australian federal by-elections List of Australian federal by-elections 2017–18 Australian parliamentary eligibility crisis

References

External links 2018 Longman by-election website: Australian Electoral Commission 2018 Longman by-election guide: Antony Green ABC 2018 Longman by-election guide: The Poll Bludger 2018 Longman by-election guide: The Tally Room By-elections aplenty: The Poll Bludger 10 May 2018 Super Saturday July 28: The Poll Bludger 24 May 2018