2018 United States Senate special election in Mississippi

The 2018 United States Senate special election in Mississippi took place on November 6, 2018, in order to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Mississippi. On April 1, 2018, a U.S. Senate vacancy was created when Republican senator Thad Cochran resigned due to health concerns. Mississippi Governor Phil Bryant appointed Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith to fill the vacancy. Hyde-Smith sought election to serve the balance of Cochran's term, which was scheduled to expire in January 2021.

On November 6, 2018, per Mississippi law, a nonpartisan top-two special general election took place on the same day as the regularly scheduled U.S. Senate election for the seat then held by Roger Wicker. Party affiliations were not printed on the ballot. Because no candidate gained a simple majority of the vote, a runoff between the top two candidates, Hyde-Smith and Mike Espy, was held on November 27, 2018. Hyde-Smith defeated Espy, 53.63% to 46.37%.

The victory made Hyde-Smith the first woman ever elected to Congress from Mississippi.

Candidates Note: Special elections in Mississippi are officially nonpartisan; however, each candidate's political party affiliation is indicated below.

Declared Tobey Bartee (Democratic Party), former Gautier city councilman Mike Espy (Democratic Party), former United States Secretary of Agriculture and former U.S. Representative Cindy Hyde-Smith (Republican Party), incumbent U.S. Senator and former Mississippi Commissioner of Agriculture and Commerce Chris McDaniel (Republican Party), state senator and candidate for this seat in 2014

Declined Jeramey Anderson, state representative (running for MS-4) (Democratic Party) David Baria, Mississippi House of Representatives Minority Leader (running for Class 1 U.S. Senate seat) (Democratic Party) Phil Bryant, governor of Mississippi (Republican Party) Jamie Franks, chairman of the Lee County Democratic Party and former state representative (Democratic Party) Andy Taggart, former chief of staff to former governor Kirk Fordice (Republican Party)

Withdrawn Jason Shelton, mayor of Tupelo (Democratic Party)

General election

Endorsements

Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of October 12, 2018CandidateTotal receiptsTotal disbursementsCash on handCindy Hyde-Smith$1,654,032$264,232$1,389,799Mike Espy$408,236$126,760$281,476Chris McDaniel$327,263$171,208$156,054Source: Federal Election Commission

Polling

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error Cindy MikeEspy ChrisMcDaniel TobeyBartee Other UndecidedChange Research (D)Change Research (D) November 2–4, 2018 1,003 – 27% 40% 28% 1% – –NBC News/MaristNBC News/Marist October 13–18, 2018 511 LV ± 6.1% 38% 29% 15% 2% <1% 15% 856 RV ± 4.7% 36% 28% 14% 3% 1% 17%SurveyMonkeySurveyMonkey September 9–24, 2018 985 ± 4.3% 24% 25% 19% 4% – 27%Neighborhood Research Corporation (R-Courageous Conservatives PAC)Neighborhood Research Corporation (R-Courageous Conservatives PAC) August 22–23 and 27–30, 2018 304 ± 5.0% 27% 28% 18% – – 27%The Mellman Group (D-Espy) August 1–7, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 29% 27% 17% – – –Triumph CampaignsTriumph Campaigns July 30–31, 2018 2,100 ± 3.5% 41% 27% 15% 1% – 16%GS Strategy Group (U.S. Chamber of Commerce)GS Strategy Group (U.S. Chamber of Commerce) May 1–3, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 30% 22% 17% – 4%Jason Shelton* 4%. *Withdrawn. –Triumph CampaignsTriumph Campaigns April 10–11, 2018 1,000 ± 3.0% 33% 33% 13% – 6%Jason Shelton* 6%. *Withdrawn. 15%Chism Strategies (D-Espy)Chism Strategies (D-Espy) March 27, 2018 603 ± 4.0% 27% 34% 21% – – 18%

Results

Runoff During the runoff campaign, while appearing with cattle rancher Colin Hutchinson in Tupelo, Mississippi, Hyde-Smith said, "If he invited me to a public hanging, I'd be in the front row." Hyde-Smith's comment immediately drew harsh criticism, given Mississippi's notorious history of lynchings of African-Americans. In response to the criticism, Hyde-Smith downplayed her comment as "an exaggerated expression of regard" and characterized the backlash as "ridiculous."

Hyde-Smith joined Mississippi Governor Phil Bryant at a news conference in Jackson, Mississippi on November 12, 2018, where she was asked repeatedly about her comment by reporters. In the footage, Hyde-Smith adamantly refused to provide any substantive answer to reporters' questions, responding on five occasions with variations of, "I put out a statement yesterday, and that's all I'm gonna say about it." When reporters redirected questions to Bryant, he defended Hyde-Smith's comment, and changed the subject to abortion, saying he was "confused about where the outrage is at about 20 million African American children that have been aborted."

On November 15, 2018, Hyde-Smith appeared in a video clip saying that it would be "a great idea" to make it more difficult for liberals to vote. Her campaign stated that Hyde-Smith was making an obvious joke, and the video was selectively edited. Both this and the "public hanging" video were released by Lamar White Jr., a Louisiana blogger and journalist. Attention was also drawn to photographs, posted on Facebook four years earlier, of Hyde-Smith and her husband visiting former Confederate President Jefferson Davis' home, a historic site. The photos show her wearing a Confederate hat and posing with a rifle commonly used by Confederate soldiers.

Debate + 2018 United States Senate election in Mississippi runoff debate Date Host Moderator Link Republican DemocraticKey: Participant  Absent  Not invited  Invited Withdrawn Cindy Hyde-Smith Mike Espy1 November 20, 2018 Mississippi Farm Bureau Federation Maggie WadeC-SPAN

Predictions SourceRankingAs ofThe Cook Political Report October 26, 2018Inside Elections November 20, 2018Sabato's Crystal Ball November 5, 2018Fox News October 10, 2018CNN October 12, 2018RealClearPolitics October 12, 2018FiveThirtyEight November 5, 2018

Polling

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error Cindy MikeEspy Other UndecidedChange Research (D) November 25, 2018 1,211 – 51% 46% – –JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns (D)JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns (D) November 19–21 and 23–24, 2018 684 ± 4.0% 54% 44% – 1%NBC News/Marist October 13–18, 2018 511 LV ± 6.1% 50% 36% 1% 13% 856 RV ± 4.7% 47% 38% 1% 14%The Mellman Group (D-Espy) August 1–7, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 38% 41% – –Triumph Campaigns July 30–31, 2018 2,100 ± 3.5% 48% 34% – 18%Mason-DixonMason-Dixon April 12–14, 2018 625 ± 4.0% 46% 34% – 20%Triumph Campaigns April 10–11, 2018 1,000 ± 3.0% 42% 36% – 23%

with Chris McDaniel and Mike Espy Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error ChrisMcDaniel MikeEspy Other UndecidedMarist CollegeMarist College October 13–18, 2018 511 LV ± 6.1% 36% 43% 2% 19% 856 RV ± 4.7% 35% 43% 2% 19%The Mellman Group (D–Espy) August 1–7, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 27% 45% – –Triumph Campaigns July 30–31, 2018 2,100 ± 3.5% 26% 41% – 33%Mason-Dixon April 12–14, 2018 625 ± 4.0% 40% 42% – 18%Triumph Campaigns April 10–11, 2018 1,000 ± 3.0% 24% 43% – 33%

Results

By county CountyCindy Hyde-SmithRepublicanMike EspyDemocraticMarginTotal#%#%#%Adams4,11338.80%6,48861.20%-2,375-22.40%10,601Alcorn7,12077.36%2,08422.64%5,03654.72%9,204Amite2,91258.11%2,09941.89%81316.22%5,011Attala3,47355.33%2,80444.67%66910.66%6,277Benton1,38753.12%1,22446.88%1636.24%2,611Bolivar3,33130.60%7,55469.40%-4,223-38.80%10,885Calhoun3,04666.78%1,51533.22%1,53133.57%4,561Carroll2,61264.67%1,42735.33%1,18529.34%4,039Chickasaw2,95547.93%3,21052.07%-255-4.14%6,165Choctaw1,93265.89%1,00034.11%93231.79%2,932Claiborne45312.77%3,09587.23%-2,642-74.46%3,548Clarke3,48661.79%2,15638.21%1,33023.57%5,642Clay3,03637.95%4,96562.05%-1,929-24.11%8,001Coahoma1,74825.48%5,11174.52%-3,363-49.03%6,859Copiah4,69444.35%5,89155.65%-1,197-11.31%10,585Covington3,82857.28%2,85542.72%97314.56%6,683DeSoto25,32659.06%17,55840.94%7,76818.11%42,884Forrest10,93350.75%10,60849.25%3251.51%21,541Franklin1,95761.14%1,24438.86%71322.27%3,201George4,90084.64%88915.36%4,01169.29%5,789Greene2,42278.56%66121.44%1,76157.12%3,083Grenada3,94352.67%3,54347.33%4005.34%7,486Hancock8,71674.07%3,05125.93%5,66548.14%11,767Harrison28,16759.29%19,33940.71%8,82818.58%47,506Hinds18,46422.98%61,89277.02%-43,428-54.04%80,356Holmes97414.35%5,81485.65%-4,840-71.30%6,788Humphreys85123.99%2,69676.01%-1,845-52.02%3,547Issaquena22742.67%30557.33%-78-14.66%532Itawamba5,71486.00%93014.00%4,78472.00%6,644Jackson23,11964.33%12,82135.67%10,29828.65%35,940Jasper2,79643.17%3,68056.83%-884-13.65%6,476Jefferson38512.06%2,80787.94%-2,422-75.88%3,192Jefferson Davis1,79235.86%3,20564.14%-1,413-28.28%4,997Jones13,42065.89%6,94634.11%6,47431.79%20,366Kemper1,27036.53%2,20763.47%-937-26.95%3,477Lafayette7,70250.61%7,51649.39%1861.22%15,218Lamar13,20072.78%4,93627.22%8,26445.57%18,136Lauderdale12,22457.11%9,18042.89%3,04414.22%21,404Lawrence3,22262.72%1,91537.28%1,30725.44%5,137Leake3,53453.28%3,09946.72%4356.56%6,633Lee16,49363.57%9,45336.43%7,04027.13%25,946Leflore2,49928.62%6,23471.38%-3,735-42.77%8,733Lincoln8,53668.05%4,00831.95%4,52836.10%12,544Lowndes9,26348.63%9,78651.37%-523-2.75%19,049Madison23,55854.83%19,40745.17%4,1519.66%42,965Marion5,49663.67%3,13636.33%2,36027.34%8,632Marshall4,46241.33%6,33458.67%-1,872-17.34%10,796Monroe7,12760.05%4,74239.95%2,38520.09%11,869Montgomery2,03654.37%1,70945.63%3278.73%3,745Neshoba5,22270.70%2,16429.30%3,05841.40%7,386Newton4,64566.90%2,29833.10%2,34733.80%6,943Noxubee90021.86%3,21778.14%-2,317-56.28%4,117Oktibbeha6,02843.86%7,71756.14%-1,689-12.29%13,745Panola4,92944.78%6,07755.22%-1,148-10.43%11,006Pearl River10,32278.48%2,83021.52%7,49256.96%13,152Perry2,75472.23%1,05927.77%1,69544.45%3,813Pike5,79546.46%6,67753.54%-882-7.07%12,472Pontotoc7,30477.98%2,06222.02%5,24255.97%9,366Prentiss5,20673.93%1,83626.07%3,37047.86%7,042Quitman68427.67%1,78872.33%-1,104-44.66%2,472Rankin34,33371.29%13,82628.71%20,50742.58%48,159Scott4,42954.85%3,64645.15%7839.70%8,075Sharkey49629.38%1,19270.62%-696-41.23%1,688Simpson5,40461.15%3,43338.85%1,97122.30%8,837Smith4,18073.64%1,49626.36%2,68447.29%5,676Stone3,72473.35%1,35326.65%2,37146.70%5,077Sunflower2,03427.73%5,30172.27%-3,267-44.54%7,335Tallahatchie1,69138.59%2,69161.41%-1,000-22.82%4,382Tate4,93560.49%3,22339.51%1,71220.99%8,158Tippah4,86875.71%1,56224.29%3,30651.42%6,430Tishomingo4,55283.57%89516.43%3,65767.14%5,447Tunica57822.98%1,93777.02%-1,359-54.04%2,515Union6,40979.98%1,60420.02%4,80559.97%8,013Walthall2,71653.84%2,32946.16%3877.67%5,045Warren7,08247.09%7,95752.91%-875-5.82%15,039Washington3,58327.12%9,62972.88%-6,046-45.76%13,212Wayne4,03657.02%3,04242.98%99414.04%7,078Webster2,93777.66%84522.34%2,09255.31%3,782Wilkinson85130.21%1,96669.79%-1,115-39.58%2,817Winston3,55952.29%3,24747.71%3124.58%6,806Yalobusha2,28151.09%2,18448.91%972.17%4,465Yazoo3,44842.81%4,60757.19%-1,159-14.39%8,055Totals486,76953.63%420,81946.37%65,9507.27%907,588

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Benton (largest municipality: Ashland) Prentiss (largest city: Booneville)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Adams (largest city: Natchez) Copiah (largest city: Crystal Springs) Issaquena (largest city: Mayersville) Lowndes (largest city: Columbus) Oktibbeha (largest city: Starkville) Panola (largest city: Batesville) Pike (largest city: McComb) Warren (largest city: Vicksburg) Yazoo (largest city: Yazoo City)

By congressional district Hyde-Smith won three of four congressional districts. District Hyde-Smith Espy Representative 61% 39%Trent Kelly 32% 68%Bennie Thompson 58% 42%Michael Guest 65% 35%Steven Palazzo

Notes

References

External links Candidates at Vote Smart Candidates at Ballotpedia Campaign finance at FEC Campaign finance at OpenSecrets

Official campaign websites Mike Espy for Senate Cindy Hyde-Smith for Senate