Post-election pendulum for the 2017 Queensland state election

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the 2017 Queensland state election.

"Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent. Labor seats (48)Marginal Townsville Scott Stewart ALP 0.4 Gaven Meaghan Scanlon ALP 0.7 Mundingburra Coralee O'Rourke ALP 1.1 Aspley Bart Mellish ALP 1.2 Mansfield Corrine McMillan ALP 1.6 Barron River Craig Crawford ALP 1.9 Maryborough Bruce Saunders ALP 2.5 v ONP Keppel Brittany Lauga ALP 3.1 v ONP Redlands Kim Richards ALP 3.1 Cairns Michael Healy ALP 3.4 South Brisbane Jackie Trad ALP 3.6 v GRN Springwood Mick de Brenni ALP 3.6 Thuringowa Aaron Harper ALP 4.1 v ONP Ferny Grove Mark Furner ALP 4.6 Redcliffe Yvette D'Ath ALP 4.9 Rockhampton Barry O'Rourke ALP 5.2 v ONP Cook Cynthia Lui ALP 5.8 v ONP Mount Ommaney Jess Pugh ALP 5.8Fairly safe BancroftChris WhitingALP6.2 Pine RiversNikki BoydALP6.2 LoganLinus PowerALP6.8 v ONP KurwongbahShane KingALP7.0 MacalisterMelissa McMahonALP7.4 CapalabaDon BrownALP7.9 McConnelGrace GraceALP7.9 MillerMark BaileyALP8.2 MackayJulieanne GilbertALP8.3 Ipswich WestJim MaddenALP8.7 v ONP MorayfieldMark RyanALP8.7 v ONP MurrumbaSteven MilesALP9.5 JordanCharis MullenALP9.9 v ONP StrettonDuncan PeggALP9.9Safe TooheyPeter RussoALP10.0 GreenslopesJoe KellyALP10.1 CooperKate JonesALP10.6 WaterfordShannon FentimanALP10.7 v ONP BulimbaDi FarmerALP10.8 IpswichJennifer HowardALP10.9 v ONP MulgraveCurtis PittALP10.9 LyttonJoan PeaseALP12.0 StaffordAnthony LynhamALP12.1 SandgateStirling HinchliffeALP13.5 NudgeeLeanne LinardALP14.3 AlgesterLeeanne EnochALP14.4GladstoneGlenn ButcherALP20.7 v ONPBundambaJo-Ann MillerALP21.6InalaAnnastacia PalaszczukALP26.1WoodridgeCameron DickALP26.4

Liberal National seats (39)Marginal Whitsunday Jason Costigan LNP 0.7 Burdekin Dale Last LNP 0.8 Pumicestone Simone Wilson LNP 0.8 Bonney Sam O'Connor LNP 1.7 Clayfield Tim Nicholls LNP 2.4 Chatsworth Steve Minnikin LNP 2.9 Currumbin Jann Stuckey LNP 3.3 Caloundra Mark McArdle LNP 3.4 Glass House Andrew Powell LNP 3.4 Coomera Michael Crandon LNP 3.5 Theodore Mark Boothman LNP 3.7 Lockyer Jim McDonald LNP 4.1 v ONP Bundaberg David Batt LNP 4.2 Burleigh Michael Hart LNP 4.9 Everton Tim Mander LNP 4.9 Moggill Christian Rowan LNP 5.0 Nicklin Marty Hunt LNP 5.3 Toowoomba North Trevor Watts LNP 5.7Fairly safeCallideColin BoyceLNP6.1 v ONPMermaid BeachRay StevensLNP6.3OodgerooMark RobinsonLNP7.2SouthportRob MolhoekLNP7.2NinderryDan PurdieLNP8.4MaroochydoreFiona SimpsonLNP8.5GympieTony PerrettLNP8.7 v ONPHervey BayTed SorensenLNP9.1WarregoAnn LeahyLNP9.5 v KAPMudgeerabaRos BatesLNP9.8SafeToowoomba SouthDavid JanetzkiLNP10.0BurnettStephen BennettLNP10.7CondaminePat WeirLNP10.7 v ONPBuderimBrent MickelbergLNP11.4KawanaJarrod BleijieLNP13.1Scenic RimJon KrauseLNP13.1 v ONPSouthern DownsJames ListerLNP13.1 v ONPNanangoDeb FrecklingtonLNP13.4 v ONPGregoryLachlan MillarLNP13.9 v ONPBroadwaterDavid CrisafulliLNP18.0Surfers ParadiseJohn-Paul LangbroekLNP19.8Crossbench seats (6)MaiwarMichael BerkmanGRN1.6 v LNPMiraniStephen AndrewONP4.8 v ALPHinchinbrookNick DamettoKAP7.6 v LNPNoosaSandy BoltonIND11.5 v LNPHillShane KnuthKAP19.7 v LNPTraegerRobbie KatterKAP28.5 v ALP

References