2018 United States Senate special election in Minnesota

The 2018 United States Senate special election in Minnesota took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a United States senator from Minnesota to replace incumbent Democratic senator Al Franken until the regular expiration of the term on January 3, 2021. Facing multiple accusations of sexual misconduct, Franken announced on December 7, 2017, that he would resign effective January 2, 2018. Governor Mark Dayton appointed Franken's successor, Tina Smith, on December 13, 2017, and she ran in the special election. This election coincided with a regularly scheduled U.S. Senate election for the Class 1 Senate seat, U.S. House elections, a gubernatorial election, State House elections, and other elections.

The candidate filing deadline was June 5, 2018, and the primary election was held on August 14, 2018. Smith won the Democratic primary and defeated Republican nominee Karin Housley in the general election.

DFL primary

Candidates

Nominated Tina Smith, incumbent U.S. senator

Eliminated in primary Ali Chehem Gregg A. Iverson, perennial candidate Nick Leonard, attorney and activist Richard Painter, University of Minnesota Law School professor and former White House ethics lawyer under President George W. Bush Christopher Lovell Seymore Sr.

Declined Scott Dibble, state senator Keith Ellison, U.S. representative from (ran for attorney general) Melisa Franzen, state senator Betty McCollum, U.S. representative from (ran for re-election) Rick Nolan, U.S. representative from (ran for lieutenant governor) Collin Peterson, U.S. representative from (ran for re-election) Jake Sullivan, former National Security Adviser to Vice President Joe Biden Lori Swanson, attorney general of Minnesota (ran for governor) Patricia Torres Ray, state senator (ran for U.S. House) Tim Walz, U.S. representative from (ran for governor)

Endorsements

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated Karin Housley, state senator

Eliminated in primary Bob Anderson, businessman Nikolay Nikolayevich Bey

Declined Sarah Anderson, Minnesota state representative Michele Bachmann, former U.S. representative Michelle Benson, state senator Christopher Chamberlin (ran for U.S. House) Norm Coleman, former U.S. senator from this seat (endorsed Housley) Kurt Daudt, speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives Tom Emmer, U.S. representative from (endorsed Housley, ran for re-election) Paul Gazelka, majority leader of the Minnesota Senate Pete Hegseth, veteran, Fox News contributor and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012 Amy Koch, former Minnesota state senator Jason Lewis, U.S. representative from (ran for re-election) Mike Lindell, CEO of My Pillow Jenifer Loon, state representative (endorsed Housley) Stewart Mills III, businessman and nominee for MN-08 in 2014 and 2016 Erik Paulsen, U.S. representative from (ran for re-election) Tim Pawlenty, former governor of Minnesota (ran for governor) Joyce Peppin, majority leader of the Minnesota House of Representatives Julie Rosen, Minnesota state senator

Endorsements

Results

Minor parties and independents

Candidates Jerry Trooien (independent), real estate developer Sarah Wellington (Legal Marijuana Now Party)

General election

Predictions SourceRankingAs ofThe Cook Political Report October 26, 2018Inside Elections November 1, 2018Sabato's Crystal Ball November 5, 2018Fox NewsJuly 9, 2018CNNJuly 12, 2018RealClearPoliticsNovember 5, 2018 ^Highest rating given

Endorsements

Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018Candidate (party)Total receiptsTotal disbursementsCash on handTina Smith (D)$8,237,522$7,308,790$928,730Karin Housley (R)$4,049,032$3,689,562$359,470Source: Federal Election Commission

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error TinaSmith (DFL) KarinHousley (R) Sarah Other UndecidedChange ResearchChange Research November 2–4, 2018 953 – 51% 42% 3% 2%Jerry Trooien (I) with 2% –Research Co.Research Co. November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 49% 39% – 2% 10%SurveyUSASurveyUSA October 29–31, 2018 600 ± 5.3% 48% 40% – 5% 7%St. Cloud State UniversitySt. Cloud State University October 15–30, 2018 420 – 44% 29% – – –Mason-DixonMason-Dixon October 15–17, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 47% 41% 1% 1%Jerry Trooien (I) with 1% 10%Change ResearchChange Research October 12–13, 2018 1,413 – 46% 43% 5% 2% 2%Marist CollegeMarist College September 30 – October 4, 2018 637 LV ± 4.9% 54% 38% – <1% 7% 860 RV ± 4.2% 52% 39% – <1% 9%Mason-DixonMason-Dixon September 10–12, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 44% 37% 2% 2% 15%SurveyUSASurveyUSA September 6–8, 2018 574 ± 4.9% 48% 39% – 2% 11%Suffolk UniversitySuffolk University August 17–20, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 44% 37% 2% 0%Jerry Trooien (I) with 0% 18%Emerson CollegeEmerson College August 8–11, 2018 500 ± 4.6% 32% 28% – – 41%Marist CollegeMarist College July 15–19, 2018 876 ± 4.0% 49% 35% – 1% 15%BK Strategies (R)BK Strategies (R) June 24–25, 2018 1,574 ± 2.5% 48% 39% – – 13%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error AlFranken (DFL) KarinHousley (R) UndecidedEmerson College August 8–11, 2018 500 ± 4.6% 41% 40% 19%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error GenericDemocrat GenericRepublican UndecidedBK Strategies (R) June 24–25, 2018 1,574 ± 2.5% 49% 42% 9%

Results Smith won the election by 10.62 percentage points. Her margin was similar to that of Democratic gubernatorial nominee Tim Walz, who defeated his Republican opponent by 11.41%. Both of those margins of victory were much smaller than that of senior Senator Amy Klobuchar, who on the same day defeated her Republican opponent by 24.1 points. Smith won by huge margins in the Democratic strongholds of Hennepin County and Ramsey County, home of Minneapolis and St. Paul, respectively. She also managed a 10% margin of victory in suburban Dakota County, just outside Minneapolis, and won St. Louis County, home of Duluth. Housley won most of the state's rural areas. Turnout was high for a midterm election, with over 63% of registered voters in Minnesota casting ballots.

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Aitkin (largest municipality: Aitkin) Lincoln (largest municipality: Tyler) Pine (largest city: Pine City) Fillmore (largest city: Spring Valley) Freeborn (largest city: Albert Lea) Itasca (largest city: Grand Rapids) Chippewa (largest city: Montevideo) Grant (largest city: Elbow Lake) Houston (largest city: La Crescent) Kanabec (largest city: Mora) Kandiyohi (largest city: Willmar) Le Sueur (largest city: Le Sueur) Marshall (largest city: Warren) Mille Lacs (largest city: Princeton) Pennington (largest city: Thief River Falls) Polk (largest city: East Grand Forks) Pope (largest city: Glenwood) Red Lake (largest city: Red Lake Falls) Renville (largest city: Olivia) Lac qui Parle (largest city: Madison) Big Stone (largest city: Ortonville) Swift (largest city: Benson) Stevens (largest city: Morris) Traverse (largest city: Wheaton) Wabasha (largest city: Lake City) Waseca (largest city: Waseca) Watonwan (largest city: St. James) Yellow Medicine (largest city: Granite Falls)

By congressional district Smith won four of Minnesota's eight congressional districts. Housley won the other four, including one that elected a Democrat. District Smith Housley Representative1st46%49%Tim Walz (115th Congress)Jim Hagedorn (116th Congress)2nd50%45%Jason Lewis (115th Congress)Angie Craig (116th Congress)3rd54%42%Erik Paulsen (115th Congress)Dean Phillips (116th Congress)4th64%31%Betty McCollum5th77%18%Keith Ellison (115th Congress)Ilhan Omar (116th Congress)6th40%55%Tom Emmer7th40%55%Collin Peterson8th47%48%Rick Nolan (115th Congress)Pete Stauber (116th Congress)

Voter demographics +Edison Research exit poll Demographic subgroup Smith Housley Noanswer % ofvoters Gender Men 49 49 2 46 Women 61 37 2 54 Age 18–24 years old 70 28 2 6 25–29 years old 55 42 3 5 30–39 years old 60 38 2 12 40–49 years old 51 45 4 13 50–64 years old 53 45 2 29 65 and older 55 44 1 35 Race White 53 45 2 89 Black 85 12 3 5 Latino N/A N/A N/A 3 Asian N/A N/A N/A 2 Other N/A N/A N/A 2 Race by gender White men 46 52 2 41 White women 59 40 1 48 Black men N/A N/A N/A 3 Black women N/A N/A N/A 2 Latino men N/A N/A N/A 1 Latino women N/A N/A N/A 1 Others N/A N/A N/A 4 Education High school or less 56 43 1 17 Some college education 48 48 4 24 Associate degree 47 51 2 17 Bachelor's degree 59 40 1 26 Advanced degree 69 29 2 16 Education and race White college graduates 62 37 1 38 White no college degree 46 52 2 51 Non-white college graduates 72 28 N/A 4 Non-white no college degree 77 18 5 7 Whites by education and gender White women with college degrees 68 30 2 21 White women without college degrees 51 46 3 28 White men with college degrees 55 44 1 17 White men without college degrees 40 58 2 23 Non-whites 75 21 4 11Income Under $30,000 63 33 4 14 $30,000–49,999 54 43 3 20 $50,000–99,999 49 48 3 36 $100,000–199,999 54 43 3 23 Over $200,000 N/A N/A N/A 7 Party ID Democrats 96 4 N/A 39 Republicans 9 90 1 32Independents 53 43 4 29 Party by gender Democratic men 96 4 N/A 14 Democratic women 95 4 1 25 Republican men 7 91 2 15 Republican women 10 89 1 17 Independent men 47 49 4 16 Independent women 60 36 4 13 IdeologyLiberals 93 4 3 27 Moderates 67 31 2 39 Conservatives 11 87 2 33 Marital status Married 50 48 2 67 Unmarried 65 33 2 33 Gender by marital status Married men 47 52 1 31 Married women 52 45 3 36 Unmarried men 55 40 5 15 Unmarried women 74 26 N/A 17 First-time midterm election voter Yes 53 46 1 12 No 58 40 2 88 Most important issue facing the countryHealth care 75 23 2 49Immigration 23 75 2 22Economy 32 65 3 19Gun policy N/A N/A N/A 8Area typeUrban6631340Suburban5245332Rural4256228Source: CNN

2018 United States Senate special election in Minnesota

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