The following is a Mackerras pendulum prior to the 2017 Queensland state election.
"Very safe" seats require a swing of more than 20 points to change, "safe" seats 10–20 points to change, "fairly safe" seats 6–10 points, and "marginal" seats less than 6 points. Labor seatsMarginal Bundaberg Leanne Donaldson ALP 0.5 Mansfield Ian Walker (LNP) ALP 0.8 Mount Ommaney Tarnya Smith (LNP) ALP 1.0 Maryborough Bruce Saunders ALP 1.1 Burdekin Dale Last (LNP) ALP 1.4 Springwood Mick de Brenni ALP 1.4 Mundingburra Coralee O'Rourke ALP 1.8 McConnel Grace Grace ALP 3.1 Cooper Kate Jones ALP 3.3 Barron River Craig Crawford ALP 3.6 Mirani Jim Pearce ALP 3.8 Keppel Brittany Lauga ALP 4.1 Pine Rivers Nikki Boyd ALP 4.1 Greenslopes Joe Kelly ALP 5.0 Ferny Grove Mark Furner ALP 5.3 Stretton Duncan Pegg ALP5.3 Miller Mark Bailey ALP5.6 Townsville Scott Stewart ALP 5.7 Logan Linus Power ALP 5.9Fairly safe Bulimba Di Farmer ALP 6.1 Murrumba Chris Whiting ALP 6.3 Macalister New seat ALP 6.4 Capalaba Don Brown ALP 6.5 Thuringowa Aaron Harper ALP 6.6 Cook Billy Gordon ALP 6.8 Kurwongbah Shane King ALP 7.1 Redcliffe Yvette D'Ath ALP 7.6 Bancroft Chris Whiting ALP 8.3 Toohey Peter Russo ALP 8.3 Ipswich West Jim Madden ALP 9.1 Nudgee Leanne Linard ALP 9.2 Stafford Anthony Lynham ALP 9.3 Algester Leeanne Enoch ALP 9.6 Lytton Joan Pease ALP 9.9Safe Sandgate Stirling Hinchliffe ALP 10.1 Mackay Julieanne Gilbert ALP 10.2 Mulgrave Curtis Pitt ALP 12.9 Waterford Shannon Fentiman ALP 13.1 Jordan New seat ALP 13.5 Morayfield Mark Ryan ALP 13.5 South Brisbane Jackie Trad ALP 13.8 Rockhampton Bill Byrne ALP 14.0 Ipswich Jennifer Howard ALP 16.0Very safe Inala Annastacia Palaszczuk ALP 20.6 Gladstone Glenn Butcher ALP v IND 25.3 Woodridge Cameron Dick ALP 25.8 Bundamba Jo-Ann Miller ALP 25.9 Liberal National seats MarginalWhitsundayJason CostiganLNP0.6Glass HouseAndrew PowellLNP0.9RedlandsMatt McEachanLNP1.2Toowoomba NorthTrevor WattsLNP1.6LockyerIan RickussLNP v PHON1.6BonneyNew seatLNP2.2EvertonTim ManderLNP2.5GavenSid CrampLNP2.8MaiwarScott EmersonLNP3.0AspleyTracy DavisLNP3.2HinchinbrookAndrew CrippsLNP3.4ChatsworthSteve MinnikinLNP3.3CaloundraMark McArdleLNP4.7TheodoreMark BoothmanLNP5.3BurleighMichael HartLNP5.5CurrumbinJann StuckeyLNP5.7OodgerooMark RobinsonLNP5.7CoomeraMichael CrandonLNP5.8Fairly safeHervey BayTed SorensenLNP6.5BurnettStephen BennettLNP6.6ClayfieldTim NichollsLNP6.6NoosaGlen ElmesLNP6.8NinderryNew seatLNP6.9GympieTony PerrettLNP7.6SouthportRob MolhoekLNP7.8MoggillChristian RowanLNP8.1Toowoomba SouthDavid JanetzkiLNP8.3Scenic RimJon KrauseLNP9.2Callide Jeff Seeney LNP9.8SafeKawana Jarrod BleijieLNP10.2Maroochydore Fiona SimpsonLNP10.3Mermaid Beach Ray StevensLNP10.3Mudgeeraba Ros BatesLNP10.3Gregory Lachlan MillarLNP10.4Nanango Deb FrecklingtonLNP13.3Warrego Ann LeahyLNP14.5Broadwater Verity BartonLNP16.3Condamine Pat WeirLNP17.1Southern Downs Lawrence SpringborgLNP19.2Very safeSurfers Paradise John-Paul LangbroekLNP20.4Crossbench seatsPumicestoneRick WilliamsIND (ALP v LNP)0.1Hill Shane KnuthKAP4.9CairnsRob PyneIND (ALP v LNP)7.5BuderimSteve DicksonPHON (LNP v ALP)11.8Traeger Rob KatterKAP v LNP16.1
See also Post-election pendulum for the Queensland state election, 2015
References