The 2017–2018 North Korea crisis was a period of heightened tension between North Korea and the United States. The crisis began early in 2017 when North Korea conducted a series of missile and nuclear tests that demonstrated the country's ability to launch ballistic missiles beyond its immediate region, suggesting their nuclear weapons capability was developing at a faster rate than had been assessed by U.S. intelligence.Intelligence Agencies Say North Korean Missile Could Reach U.S. in a Year NYT, July 25, 2017.Three things to know about North Korea's missile tests: With advances in its long-range missile programme, here are three technical milestones and why they matter. Aljazeera, September 3, 2017. Both countries started exchanging increasingly heated rhetoric, including nuclear threats and personal attacks between the two leaders, which, compounded by a joint U.S.–South Korea military exercise undertaken in August and North Korea's sixth nuclear test in September, raised international tensions in the region and beyond and stoked fears about a possible nuclear conflict between the two nations.North Korea's Potential Targets: Guam, South Korea and Japan NYT, August 9, 2017. In addition, North Korea also threatened Australia twice with nuclear strikes throughout the year for their allegiance with the United States. International relations lecturer and former government strategist Van Jackson said in the book On the Brink: Trump, Kim, and the Threat of Nuclear War that it was the closest the world had come to nuclear war since the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Tensions began to decline in 2018, with North Korea announcing the restoration of the Seoul–Pyongyang hotline and agreeing to hold talks with South Korea about participation in the 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang. Diplomatic activity flourished during the next few months, with the suspension of nuclear and missile tests by North Korea, and the 2018 inter-Korean summit in late April which culminated in the signing of the Panmunjom Declaration on 27 April 2018. An unprecedented bilateral summit between Kim and Trump was held in Singapore on 12 June 2018. It resulted in a joint declaration calling for the "full denuclearization of the Korean peninsula". A second summit between Kim and Trump took place in Hanoi, Vietnam, on 27–28 February 2019. Though talks there broke down, a third summit took place in the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) on 30 June 2019, with Trump becoming the first sitting US president to visit North Korea. Follow-up talks later in 2019, however, broke down within hours.David E. Sanger, U.S. Nuclear Talks With North Korea Break Down in Hours , New York Times (October 5, 2019).
Background
North Korea's nuclear weapons program
In his New Year's Day speech on January 2, 2017, Kim Jong Un, the leader of North Korea, said that the country was in the "last stage" of preparations to test-fire an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).
On May 3, North Korea issued a rare and harshly worded criticism of its chief ally, China, stating that "One must clearly understand that the D.P.R.K.'s line of access to nukes for the existence and development of the country can neither be changed nor shaken[...] And that the D.P.R.K. will never beg for the maintenance of friendship with China, risking its nuclear program which is as precious as its own life, no matter how valuable the friendship is... China should no longer try to test the limits of the D.P.R.K.'s patience[...] China had better ponder over the grave consequences to be entailed by its reckless act of chopping down the pillar of the D.P.R.K.-China relations." The harsh commentary also accused the Chinese media of dancing to the tune of the U.S.
In early August 2017, The Washington Post reported an assessment, made by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency in July 2017, which said that North Korea had successfully developed nuclear warheads for missiles capable of reaching the U.S. mainland (a miniaturized nuclear warhead that can fit inside its missiles).
Sanctions on North Korea; trade with China
Since North Korea's first nuclear test in 2006, the UN Security Council had passed a number of resolutions that imposed various sanctions on the DPRK, including restrictions on economic activity. Nevertheless, North Korea's gross domestic product grew by an estimated 3.9 percent in 2016, to about $28.5 billion, the fastest pace in 17 years; the progress was largely attributed to continued trade with China, which accounted for more than 90% of North Korea's international trade.North Korea's Secret Weapon? Economic Growth. Rising living standards will limit the effect of sanctions. Bloomberg, 14 September 2017.China imposes import bans on North Korean iron, coal and seafood BBC, 15 August 2017.
In late February 2017, following North Korea's February 12 test of the Pukkuksong-2 medium-range ballistic missile, China, which regards its trade with North Korea and the putative missile threat to the U.S. as separate issues,China Has Nothing To Gain From Sanctioning North Korea Forbes, August 13, 2017. said it would comply with UN Resolution 2321 and halt all coal imports (North Korea's main export) from North Korea.China bans all coal imports from North Korea amid growing tensions CNN, February 20, 2017. The halt notwithstanding, in April 2017, China said that its trade with North Korea had expanded.China Says Its Trade With North Korea Has Increased NYT, April 13, 2017. In July 2017, China's trade with North Korea, while the ban on North Korean coal was said to have slowed imports from the DPRK, was worth $456 million, up from $426 million in July 2016, the year-to-date trade being up 10.2 percent at $3.01 billion.China July trade with North Korea slows from June as coal ban bites Reuters, August 23, 2017.
In 2017, North Korea was sanctioned several times by the UN Security Council. According to the last set of sanctions of December 22, 2017, oil supplies to the DPRK are prohibited, and all countries have decided to expel North Korean labor migrants within 24 months from the territories of the countries where they work.CNN (24 December 2017) UN adopts tough new sanctions on North Korea
China has been opposed to secondary sanctions that may be imposed on Chinese firms that do business with North Korea.Exclusive: U.S. prepares new sanctions on Chinese firms over North Korea ties – officials Reuters, July 13, 2017.
Imprisonment of U.S. citizens
American university student Otto Warmbier was freed from North Korea in June 2017, while in a coma after nearly 18 months of captivity."Coma-stricken student released from North Korea arrives back in US" , ABC News, June 12, 2017 Warmbier died without regaining consciousness on June 19, 2017, six days after his return to the United States. Some U.S. officials blamed North Korea for his death."John McCain: Otto Warmbier 'murdered by the Kim Jong-un regime'" , Washington Examiner, June 19, 2017 In July 2017, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson authorized a "Geographical Travel Restriction" which banned Americans from entering North Korea.
THAAD in South Korea
Ostensibly to counter North Korea's missile threat, United States Forces Korea (USFK) had been planning deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) in South Korea, which is designed to detect and destroy intermediate- and medium-range ballistic missiles (not intercontinental ballistic missile).U.S. Forces Korea Commander confident THAAD will enhance Alliance's defense against North Korean Threats 주한미군 사령관, 사드 (THAAD)가 북한 위협으로부터 한미동맹의 방어력을 제고할 것을 확신 USFK, August 1, 2017. The deployment had faced strong oppositions from China, Russia, and North Korea. In late April 2017, it was reported that while THAAD had originally been scheduled to become operational by the end of 2017, this could occur sooner.We are a target': South Korean village wakes up on frontline with North: Arrival of Thaad defence system in Seongju fails to reassure villagers as voters in Seoul call for engagement with Pyongyang not threats The Guardian, 27 April 2017. According to U.S. Forces Korea's announcement, THAAD stationed in South Korea had reached initial operating capability (IOC) on May 1, 2017.It's Official: THAAD Missile Defense Is Up and Running in South Korea The Diplomat, May 2, 2017.
Timeline
USS Carl Vinsons movements: April 2017
Following North Korea's test-firing of a medium-range ballistic missile from its eastern port of Sinpo into the Sea of Japan on April 5, which came a month after four ballistic missiles were fired towards the Sea of Japan, tensions increased as U.S. president Donald Trump had said the U.S. was prepared to act alone to deal with the nuclear threat from North Korea.Trump ready to 'solve' North Korea problem without China BBC, April 3, 2017. On April 9, the U.S. Navy announced it was sending a navy strike group headed by the supercarrier to the West Pacific ("to sail north and report on station in the Western Pacific Ocean after departing Singapore April 8"), but due to apparent miscommunication inside the U.S. administration, the naval move was presented as one towards the Korean peninsula.Carl Vinson Strike Group Departs Singapore for Western Pacific navy.mil, Story Number: NNS170409-02 Release Date: April 9, 2017. This information was backtracked by the U.S. government a few days later.'Armada' Trump claimed was deployed to North Korea actually heading to Australia The Independent, April 19, 2017.
The April 9 announcement by the Navy led to a "glitch-ridden sequence of events". On April 17, North Korea's deputy United Nations ambassador accused the United States of turning the Korean peninsula into "the world's biggest hotspot" and the North Korean government stated "its readiness to declare war on the United States if North Korean forces were to be attacked." In reality on April 18, Carl Vinson and its escorts were from Korea engaged in scheduled joint Royal Australian Navy exercises in the Indian Ocean. On April 24 the Japanese destroyers Ashigara and Samidare participated with Carl Vinson in tactical training drills near the Philippines; North Korea threatened to sink her with a single strike. Carl Vinson had been in the South China Sea in 2015 and again in February 2017 on routine patrols. In late April 2017, Trump stated that "[t]here is a chance that we [the United States] could end up having a major, major conflict with North Korea".
On April 24, North Korea marked the 85th anniversary of the Korean People's Army by what was said to be "its largest ever military drill," conducted in Wonsan.North Korea marks anniversary with massive artillery drill CNN, April 26, 2017. The following day, it was reported that the United States and South Korea had begun installing key elements of the THAAD missile defense in South Korea's Seongju County.Missile Defense System Takes Shape in South Korea as North Holds Drills NYT, April 25, 2017.
ICBM test-flight on 4 July
On July 4 North Korea conducted the first publicly announced flight test of its ICBM Hwasong-14, timed to coincide with the U.S. Independence Day celebrations. This flight had a claimed range of eastwards into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea) and reached an altitude of during a 39-minute flight. The U.S. government experts classified the missile launch as a big step in Pyongyang's quest to acquire a nuclear-tipped weapon capable of hitting the U.S.US bombers fly over Korean Peninsula in response to N. Korea's ICBM test CNN, July 8, 2017. North Korea declared it was now "a full-fledged nuclear power that has been possessed of the most powerful inter-continental ballistic rocket capable of hitting any part of the world".Trump warns North Korea of 'severe' options over missile test BBC, July 6, 2017.North Korea missile: US confirms long-range test BBC, July 5, 2017.