In France, climate change has caused some the greatest annual temperature increases registered in any country in Europe.National Observatory for the Impacts of Global Warming. Climate change: costs of impacts and lines of adaptation. Report to the Prime Minister and Parliament, 2009. Accessed 2021-08-21 The 2019 heat wave saw record temperatures of 46.0 °C. Heat waves and other extreme weather events are expected to increase with continued climate change. Other expected environmental effects include increased floods due to both sea level rise and increased glacier melt. These environmental changes will lead to shifts in ecosystems and affect local organisms. Climate change will also cause economic losses in France, particularly in the agriculture and fisheries sectors.AgriAdapt. SUSTAINABLE ADAPTATION OF TYPICAL EU FARMING SYSTEMS TO CLIMATE CHANGE. Retrieved 2021-04-26
The Paris Agreement on climate change, under France's presidency, was negotiated and agreed in 2015 at COP21. France subsequently set a law to have a net zero atmospheric greenhouse gas emission (carbon neutrality) by 2050. Recently, the French government has received criticism for not doing enough to combat climate change, and in 2021 was found guilty in court for its insufficient efforts.
Greenhouse gas emissions
France strives to have reduced its greenhouse gas emissions to 40% below what it was in 1990 by 2030. The French government hopes to reach a net emission of zero by 2040.
The table below shows the annual total emission of greenhouse gas in France in Megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2). Values for EU27 with the United Kingdom (previously EU28) as well as the values for the world are included to compare trends in emission.Crippa, M., Guizzardi, D., Muntean, M., Schaaf, E., Solazzo, E., Monforti-Ferrario, F., Olivier, J.G.J., Vignati, E. Fossil CO2 emissions of all world countries. Retrieved 2021-04-21 +YearFrance (Mt CO2)EU27 + UK (Mt CO2)World (Mt CO2)19903864,40822,68320054084,24930,05120193143,30338,016 The four main emitting sectors in France are transport, agriculture, buildings and industry.European Union. 2009 French climate plan. Retrieved 2021-04-24 In 2017, the French industry (including energy supply and other manufacturing) was responsible for 46% of the total CO2 emission, a number that has been fairly steady since around 2014.European Environmental Agency. France - industrial pollution profile 2020. Retrieved 2021-04-22 The industries and agriculture are responsible for just 20% each of France's CO2 emissions.
For the total CO2 emission in 2018, France ranked number 19 in the world with a total of 330Mt CO2 emitted, just below Poland with 340Mt CO2 emitted and the United Kingdom with 370Mt CO2 emitted.
The table below shows the annual emission of greenhouse gas in France in tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per capita (tCO2/capita). +YearFrance(t CO2/capita)EU27 + UK (t CO2/capita)World (t CO2/capita)19709.189.524.2619809.3810.274.4619906.789.244.2620006.758.464.1820106.027.784.8820194.816.474.93 The per capita emission of France in 2019 was just below the average for the world. In 2018, France ranked number 17 in the world with 5.19 tonnes CO2 emitted per capita. Its neighbouring countries the United Kingdom (5.62T CO2/capita) and Germany (9.12T CO2/capita) ranked 14 and 9, respectively.
Effects on the natural environment The current rise in temperature is changing the natural environment in France, from more precipitation during spring and winter to heat waves and fast melting glaciers. All these effects are only expected to get worse with the increasing temperature.
Temperature and weather changes
During the 20th century, the average annual temperature in mainland France rose by 0.95 °C. Meanwhile, the average annual global temperature rose by 0.74 °C during that same time period. Meaning that France saw an average temperature increase that was around 30% higher compared to the average global temperature rise. If this trend continues by the time the average global temperature has reached 2 °C it would mean that the average temperature in France has increased with almost 3 °C. In present day, warmer summers and cooler winters are already getting more pronounced leading to an increase of 5–35% in autumn and winter rainfall as well as a decrease in summer rainfall, the latter combined with an increase in temperature, could increase the risk for more severe drought events. The Mediterranean part of the country saw an increase of around 0.5 °C per decade in the period of 1979–2005, making it the part of the country that is experiencing the highest increase in temperature and highest decrease in annual precipitation.
Temperature rise in the French Alps is even more extensive than in the rest of the country, and by 2018 approached a 2 °C average increase compared to the industrial revolution with an accelerating increase in the past few decades.
Temperature records
The hottest year in France on record was in 2020 with an average temperature of 14.0 °C which beat the last record of 13.9 °C in 2018. The all-time hottest day was recorded on the 28th of June 2019, a day that saw a lot of new records during the 2019 European heat wave. With the hottest place being in Gallargues-le-Monteux in Southern France with a staggering 45.9 °C. Due to an increase in global average temperature France has been hit by several extreme heat waves over the past few years, this is because of hot air passing over Europe from North Africa.
Heat waves With a decrease in summer precipitation and a global increase of average temperature, heat wave events like the 2018 European heat wave and the 2019 European heat wave set new summer temperature records and are only expected to get more intense and common due to climate change.
Sea-level rise With an increase in glacier and polar ice cap melting, sea level rise is expected to increase, affecting both the Atlantic and the Mediterranean coasts. Future climate projections predict that sea levels around France will increase by at least 1 meter by the year 2100. Low coasts will be in danger of erosion and being permanently submerged, heavily threatening coastal infrastructure, new coasts will be under threat from temporal flooding, an estimated 140,000 homes and 80,000 people are located in the zone that is at risk for permanent submersion by 2100.
Glaciers
An increase in mean annual temperature causes glacial retreat. In the European Alps it is estimated that around half of glacial ice had disappeared between 1850 and 1975. Another 30–40% from what remained was estimated to have disappeared between the time period 1980–2005. According to future climate models, what remains of the glaciers in the Alps as of the year 2100 compared to 2017, could be nothing more than one-third in a best case scenario regardless if the global carbon emission hits zero. If these emissions continue to rise those glaciers will be gone by 2100. At the Mont Blanc altitudes between 1500 and 2500 meters saw a total of 25 more snow-free days when comparing the years 1964–75 and 2005–2015. An increasing temperature is the primary cause of this rapid snow melting from glaciers, making more ground become exposed to sunlight which changes the albedo of the surrounding area. This secondary cause creates in its turn a positive feedback effect of more extensive heat and therefore promoting even more glacial and snow melt.
A rapid rise in melting glaciers increases the risk of avalanches, floods, mudslides and landslides. A reduction in melting glacial water causes problems for local water reservoirs used for energy, agriculture and daily use of water. This causes high risk as parts of the Alps are densely populated.
Flooding France is in present-day not under serious threat of flooding because of climate change. However, with an expected sea-level rise, coastal regions are likely to be affected by coastal flooding. Other than that future climate projections have difficulties estimating where and when an increase in flooding events might occur due to high uncertainties in weather patterns. High altitude areas, like the French Alps, are most likely to see more flooding events due to melting glaciers and because of mountains being good at capturing rain from the air.
Ecosystems More than half of all land in France belongs to agriculture or urban areas, both of which are generally biodiverse poor ecosystems. The most numerous naturally occurring ecosystem is forests. In France around 27% of land and 36% of marine environments fall under some form of protection, like Natura 2000 or the Habitats directive. Current conservation plans to help existing organisms and ecosystems cope with a changing climate is to reduce any other forms of pressure like human interference in order to promote the resilience in those ecosystems as well as more protected areas and stricter rules, legislation and management.
Biodiversity
Plant communities affect the biophysical properties of their surrounding soil through interactions with both microbial communities and animals as well as through adding soil from decaying plant matter and root growth which holds both water and soil in place. With a shift in climate these communities will have to move as well. For plant communities living in the Alps, this is more problematic as according to one source a roughly 100 meter change in altitude corresponds to a difference of 0.5 °C.
A higher winter temperature could also be devastating for many forms of hibernating wildlife, as an early spike in temperature would promote hibernating organisms like cold-blooded reptiles and amphibians to wake up, as well as cause plants to flower early. Most of these organisms would not survive if a late winter cold snap were to hit the area. An example is the blueberry, which is sensitive to frost and can therefore become severely damaged if its productivity starts to early.
Effects on people
Economic effects
Agriculture Climate change is expected to bring longer, warmer summers and less precipitation to France, which will severely affect many of the crops used in agriculture. Due to the warmer weather, the evaporation will be higher and less rain is expected. As most crops currently grown in France are to some extent sensitive to drought, there will likely be a higher need for irrigation, leading to a higher cost of crop production. Extreme weather events and droughts can also eliminate crop yields for some years. The warm weather, although it will prolong the growing season, will also shorten the crop growth phases and crops such as oilseed and cereal will hence experience a shorter grain filling phase, resulting in smaller size. The smaller size also means a smaller yield volume, resulting in the need to expand current agriculture or import additional crop.
Livestock will also be affected by the warmer climate. Animals kept indoors will have a higher need for ventilation and cooling systems, and animals let outdoors will need shelter to protect from the sun during grazing, and likely need a higher water supply available, increasing the cost of production. The biggest effect on livestock production will possibly be through fodder yield reduction. The warmer weather will alter the seasonal growth, decreasing the summer yields, while likely giving an increase in spring and autumn yields, resulting in a skewed and variable fodder availability. Due to the effects of climate change on livestock, and the effect of livestock on climate change, it is likely necessary to rethink the livestock system.
Vineyards
Along with Italy and Spain, France is one of the largest wine producers in the world, with vineyards found in all regions of France. Wine production is the second largest trade in France, after aeronautics. In 2017, French wine production had a profit of 8.24 billion Euros (9.97bn USD).