Opinion polling for the 2012 French legislative election

This page lists public opinion polls conducted for the 2012 French legislative elections, which were held in two rounds on 10 and 17 June 2012.

Unless otherwise noted, all polls listed below are compliant with the regulations of the national polling commission (Commission nationale des sondages) and utilize the quota method.

Graphical summary The averages in the graphs below were constructed using polls listed below conducted by the nine major French pollsters. The graphs are smoothed 14-day weighted moving averages, using only the most recent poll conducted by any given pollster within that range (each poll weighted based on recency).

First round The comparison for the Left Front with 2007 is made against the French Communist Party and the New Centre against "presidential majority" candidates. Hunting, Fishing, Nature and Traditions and the Movement for France, which were counted individually in 2007, are included in the miscellaneous right total for that year, which would otherwise be 2.47%.

Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize LO NPA FG MRC PS PRG DVG EELV AEI ECO MoDem AC PR NC UMP DVD DLR FN EXD REG DIV 2012 election 10 Jun 2012 – 42.78% 0.98% (EXG) 6.91% (DVG) 29.35% 1.65% 3.40% 5.46% (ECO) 0.96% 1.77% 0.60% 1.24% 2.20% 27.12% 3.51% (DVD) 13.60% 0.19% 0.96% 0.52% YouGov 3–8 Jun 2012 1,252 42% 1% 6% 39% – – 3% – – 32% – 18% – – 1% BVA 6–7 Jun 2012 1,020 – 1% 1% 8% – 32.5% – 4% 0.5% – 4% – – – 32.5% – 1% 15.5% – – – Ipsos 6–7 Jun 2012 1,017 40% 1.5% 8% 31.5% 5% – – 2% – 34.5% – 15.5% – – 2% OpinionWay 6–7 Jun 2012 1,791 39% 1% 8% – 32% 5.5% 1% – 2% 33.5% – 16% – – 1% Harris 5–7 Jun 2012 1,043 – 1% 7% – 34% 5% – – 3% – – – 33% – 15% – – 2% BVA 5–6 Jun 2012 1,182 – 1% 0.5% 9% – 32% – 4.5% 1% – 3.5% – – – 32% – 1% 15.5% – – – CSA 5–6 Jun 2012 875 – 1% 0.5% 8% 32.5% – 5% – – 3% – 32.5% – 0.5% 14% – – 3% OpinionWay 4–5 Jun 2012 1,697 40% 1% 8.5% – 31% 5.5% 1% – 2% 35% – 15% – – 1% TNS Sofres 1–3 Jun 2012 1,000 – 1.5% 7.5% – 31.5% 5% – – 2% – 35% – 15% – – 2.5% Ipsos 1–2 Jun 2012 894 38% 1.5% 7% 32.5% 6% – – 3% – 34% – 14% – – 2% LH2 1–2 Jun 2012 960 – 0.5% 1% 8% – 30% 1.5% 5% – – 5% – – 1% 30.5% 3% – 14.5% – – Ifop-Fiducial 31 May–1 Jun 2012 874 – 1.5% 8% – 33% 4% – – 3% – 30.5% 3.5% – 15% 0.5% – 1% BVA 30–31 May 2012 1,139 – 0.5% 0.5% 9% – 33% – 4% <0.5% – 4.5% – – – 32% – 0.5% 16% – – – CSA 29–30 May 2012 852 – 1% <0.5% 10% – 30% – – 5% – – 3% – – – 31.5% – 0.5% 14% – – 5% Ifop 25–29 May 2012 971 – 0.5% 1% 7% – 33% 1% – 3.5% – 1% 4% – 1% 32% – 0.5% 15.5% – – – Ipsos 25–26 May 2012 962 38% 1.5% 8% 31% 6% – – 2% – 35% – 15% – – 1.5% OpinionWay 23–25 May 2012 1,836 38% 1% 8% – 32% 4% 1% – 4% 31% – 16% – – 3% Ifop-Fiducial 18–19 May 2012 860 – 0.5% 0.5% 7% – 34.5% – 4.5% – – 4% – 32.5% – 0.5% 16% – – – BVA 9–10 May 2012 1,147 – <0.5% 0.5% 10.5% – 30% – 4.5% <0.5% – 5% – – – 32.5% – 1% 16% – – – CSA 9–10 May 2012 899 – 1% 0.5% 10% – 32% – – 4% – – 4% – – – 33% – 0.5% 12% – – 3% BVA 6 May 2012 857 – 0.5% 10.5% – 35% – – 4% – – – 33% – – 17% – – – CSA 6 May 2012 1,016 – 1% 0% 10% – 31% – – 4% – – 6% – – – 30% – 1% 15% – – 2% Harris 6 May 2012 1,086 – 1% 7% – 26% – 2% 5% – – 5% – – – 32% 2% – 17% <0.5% – 3% Ifop-Fiducial 6 May 2012 1,968 – 0.5% 1% 8% – 31% – 5% – – 4.5% – 1.5% 30% – 0.5% 18% – – – 2007 election 10 Jun 2007 – 39.58% 3.41% (EXG) 4.29% (DVG) 24.73% 1.32% 1.97% 3.25% – 0.80% 7.61% – (UMP) 2.37% 39.54% 5.65% (DVD) 4.29% 0.39% 0.51% 1.03%

Second round seat projections Projections marked with an asterisk (*) were calculated based only on the first round results, not surveys before the second round.

The Ipsos survey conducted from 13 to 14 June consisted of 1,015 respondents in 157 constituencies with left-right duels, 775 respondents in 36 constituencies EELV-right duels, and 685 respondents in 27 constituencies in constituencies with a left-right-FN triangulaire.

The comparison for the Left Front with 2007 is made against the French Communist Party. Movement for France, which was counted individually in 2007, is included in the miscellaneous right total for that year, which would otherwise be 9 otherwise.

Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize FG MRC PS DVG PRG EELV MoDem AC PR NC UMP DVD FN EXD REG DIV 2012 election 17 Jun 2012 – 44.60% 10 (DVG) 280 22 12 17 2 2 6 12 194 15 2 1 2 0 BVA * 15 Jun 2012 – – 9–14 303–325 12–18 1–2 – 219–247 1–5 – – CSA 13–14 Jun 2012 1,005 – 8–11 287–330 13–17 1–2 – 225–255 1–4 – – Harris 13–14 Jun 2012 1,067 – 8–10 287–325 11–17 0–2 202–263 0–3 – – 0–4 Ipsos 13–14 Jun 2012 2,475 – 12–13 3–5 284–313 11–13 14–20 1–3 – 4–6 14–18 192–226 0–3 – – 0–2 OpinionWay 13–14 Jun 2012 1,090 – 8–12 295–330 12–18 0–2 15–22 200–230 0–4 – 0–3 – TNS Sofres 13–14 Jun 2012 1,000 – 10–12 – 300–330 14–18 0–2 – 210–240 0–3 – – 2–3 Ifop* 13 Jun 2012 – – 8–10 297–332 13–20 1–2 – 210–247 0–3 – – 2–5 Ipsos 6–7 Jun 2012 1,017 – 23–26 2–4 243–285 12–15 12–16 0–3 – 4–7 13–16 214–262 – 0–3 – – – OpinionWay 6–7 Jun 2012 1,791 – 18–22 2–4 290–320 16–22 0–2 209–247 0–4 – – – Harris 5–7 Jun 2012 1,043 – 15–20 – 275–302 – 16–21 0–2 – – – 229–267 0–3 – – 0 OpinionWay 4–5 Jun 2012 1,697 – 20–24 1–3 271–296 18–24 0–2 230–267 0–2 – – – TNS Sofres 1–3 Jun 2012 1,000 – 13–18 – 280–310 12–17 0–2 – 235–265 0–5 – – – Ipsos 1–2 Jun 2012 894 – 21–23 2–4 249–291 14–16 17–23 0–3 – 2–5 9–14 – 0–3 – – – 2007 election 17 Jun 2007 – 40.02% 15 (DVG) 186 15 7 4 3 – (UMP) 22 313 10 0 0 1 1

By constituency First round Ain's 5th No fieldwork date(s) were given for this poll; the date listed below is the publication date.

Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize Mylène Ferri Josiane Exposito Michel Perraud Damien Abad Patrick Sokolowski Others 2012 election 10 Jun 2012 – 42.82% 7.32% 28.51% 9.49% 31.81% 17.99% 4.88% CSA 1 Jun 2012 501 – 8% 27% 10% 28% 19% 8%

Aisne's 2nd Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize Guy Fontaine Anne Ferreira Paul Gironde Xavier Bertrand Yannick Lejeune Others 2012 election 10 Jun 2012 – 38.11% 4.74% 35.47% 1.39% 38.89% 16.29% 3.22% OpinionWay 29–31 May 2012 552 – 6% 30% 2% 41% 17% 4%

Alpes-Maritimes's 1st Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize Robert Injey Patrick Allemand Éric Ciotti Jacques Peyrat Others 2012 election 10 Jun 2012 – 44.08% 4.58% 28.68% 43.89% 16.16% 6.70% OpinionWay 24–26 May 2012 505 – 9% 25% 46% 12% 8%

Alpes-Maritimes's 2nd Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize Frédérique Cattaert Fabrice Lachenmaier André Aschieri Charles-Ange Ginésy Jean-Marc Degioanni Others 2012 election 10 Jun 2012 – 40.99% 4.11% 7.04% 28.72% 35.78% 21.06% 3.29% OpinionWay 1–2 Jun 2012 550 – 4% 1% 34% 40% 18% 3%

Alpes-Maritimes's 3rd Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize Roseline Grac Christine Dorejo Rudy Salles Gaël Nofri Others 2012 election 10 Jun 2012 – 45.19% 5.01% 23.01% 36.80% 22.75% 12.42% OpinionWay 1–2 Jun 2012 555 – 6% 22% 40% 18% 14%

Alpes-Maritimes's 4th Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize Francis Tujague Pascale Gérard Jean-Claude Guibal Stéphane Cherki Lydia Schenardi Others 2012 election 10 Jun 2012 – 42.42% 10.18% 19.79% 32.70% 9.63% 22.90% 4.80% OpinionWay 29–31 May 2012 554 – 12% 18% 37% 7% 22% 4%

Aude's 2nd Didier Codorniou was eligible to continue through the second round, but instead withdrew and supported Marie-Hélène Fabre after the first round.

The TNS Sofres poll tested Jean-Pierre Nadal as the candidate of the FN; Laure-Emmanuelle Philippe was ultimately invested by the party.

Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize Jean-Paul Tournissa Marie-Hélène Fabre Didier Codorniou Michel Py Laure-Emmanuelle Philippe Others 2012 election 10 Jun 2012 – 38.37% 5.91% 35.47% 21.89% 23.14% 18.80% 3.42% Ifop-Fiducial 1–2 Jun 2012 604 – 9% 25% 20% 27% 17% 2% TNS Sofres 11–12 May 2012 605 – 8% 23% 23% 30% 16% 0% – 28% 26% 30% 16% 0%

Aveyron's 1st Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize Guilhem Serieys Monique Bultel-Herment Stéphane Mazars Bruno Berardi Yves Censi Jean-Guillaume Remise Others 2012 election 10 Jun 2012 – 34.00% 5.54% 28.27% 14.18% 3.02% 39.83% 8.16% 1.01% Ifop 1–2 Jun 2012 602 – 8.5% 25.5% 13% 3% 40.5% 9% 0.5%

Bouches-du-Rhône's 5th Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize Frédéric Dutoit Marie-Arlette Carlotti Michèle Rubirola-Blanc Hélène Coulomb Renaud Muselier Jean-Pierre Baumann Others 2012 election 10 Jun 2012 – 41.16% 7.59% 34.43% 3.42% 1.64% 32.45% 16.27% 4.19% Ifop-Fiducial 29–30 May 2012 504 – 8.5% 34% 3.5% 2.5% 36% 13.5% 2%

Bouches-du-Rhône's 9th Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize Pierre Mingaud Christian Musumeci Denis Grandjean Jean-Marie Orihuel Bernard Deflesselles Joëlle Mélin Others 2012 election 10 Jun 2012 – 40.99% 14.91% 3.86% 19.03% 1.38% 35.28% 22.25% 3.29% CSA 23–24 May 2012 603 – 16% 5% 11% 6% 39% 19.5% 3.5%

Bouches-du-Rhône's 13th René Raimondi was eligible to continue through the second round, but abandoned his candidacy to the benefit of Gaby Charroux.

The CSA poll tested José Rodriguez as the candidate of the FN; Béatrix Espallardo was ultimately invested by the party.

Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize Gaby Charroux René Raimondi Paul Lombard Véronique Coulomb Michèle Vasserot Béatrix Espallardo Others 2012 election 10 Jun 2012 – 40.31% 27.41% 24.82% 4.04% 1.99% 14.77% 21.69% 5.28% CSA 2–3 Feb 2012 500 – 35% 23% 12% 5% 18% 7% 0%

Charente-Maritime's 1st In the Ifop-Fiducial poll conducted in December 2011, no Europe Ecology – The Greens or National Front candidates were named, François Drageon was described as a miscellaneous right candidate, and Bruno Leal was tested as a candidate of the Democratic Movement.

Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize Esther Memain Ségolène Royal Olivier Falorni Brigitte Desveaux Arnaud Jaulin François Drageon Sally Chadjaa Marie-Françoise de Lacoste-Lareymondie Others 2012 election 10 Jun 2012 – 39.34% 3.40% 32.03% 28.91% 3.68% 1.79% 1.88% 19.47% 6.80% 2.02% Ifop-Fiducial 2–4 Jun 2012 603 – 4.5% 36% 22% 3% 2.5% 2% 21.5% 7% 1.5% Ifop-Fiducial 25–29 May 2012 604 – 3% 33% 26% 4% 3% 2.5% 19.5% 9% 0% Ifop-Fiducial 1–3 Dec 2011 602 – 6% 23% 18% 9% 5.5% 5% 17% 5% 11.5%

Corse-du-Sud's 1st Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize Paul-Antoine Luciani Simon Renucci Jean-Marc Cresp Laurent Marcangeli José Risticoni Romain Colonna Paul-Mathieu Leonetti Others 2012 election 10 Jun 2012 – 43.00% 7.57% 29.39% 4.83% 30.75% 10.27% 9.00% 6.63% 1.56% Ifop-Fiducial 24–26 May 2012 502 – 9% 26% 2% 32% 11.5% 13% 4.5% 2%

Corse-du-Sud's 2nd Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize Dominique Bucchini Paul-Marie Bartoli Camille de Rocca Serra Bernard Angelini Jean-Christophe Angelini Paul Quastana Others 2012 election 10 Jun 2012 – 39.01% 10.86% 16.81% 33.00% 9.83% 21.23% 8.04% 0.23% Ifop-Fiducial 24–26 May 2012 502 – 14% 18% 33% 11% 20% 3.5% 0.5%

Haute-Corse's 1st Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize Michel Stefani Jean Zuccarelli Sauveur Gandolfi-Scheit Tony Cardi Gilles Simeoni Ghjuvan Filippu Antolini Others 2012 election 10 Jun 2012 – 39.04% 7.14% 23.55% 31.19% 8.00% 24.73% 3.30% 2.08% Ifop-Fiducial 24–26 May 2012 500 – 10.5% 22.5% 32% 9% 21.5% 4% 0.5%

Haute-Corse's 2nd Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize Marie-Jeanne Fedi Paul Giacobbi Stéphanie Grimaldi Estelle Massoni Saveriu Luciani Petru Antone Tomasi Others 2012 election 10 Jun 2012 – 38.14% 5.80% 43.60% 24.78% 8.35% 10.79% 6.19% 0.49% Ifop-Fiducial 24–26 May 2012 504 – 7.5% 32% 30% 10% 11% 9% 0.5%

Gard's 2nd Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize Danielle Floutier Katy Guyot Étienne Mourrut Gilbert Collard Others 2012 election 10 Jun 2012 – 36.64% 5.18% 32.87% 23.89% 34.57% 3.48% Ifop-Fiducial 4–5 Jun 2012 604 – 8% 29.5% 29.5% 29.5% 3.5%

Haute-Garonne's 3rd After the first round, Alain Fillola, though eligible to continue to the second round, withdrew his candidacy.

Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize Martine Croquette Alain Fillola François Simon Jean-Luc Moudenc Sandrine Cabioch Others 2012 election 10 Jun 2012 – 37.59% 6.42% 21.36% 22.24% 35.14% 7.81% 7.02% BVA 30 May–2 Jun 2012 611 – 10% 17% 22% 38% 7% 6%

Gironde's 2nd