Opinion polling for the 1992 United Kingdom general election

Opinion polling for the 1992 United Kingdom general election was carried out by various organisations to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls range from the previous election on 11 June 1987 to the election on 9 April 1992.

Almost every poll leading up to polling day predicted either a hung parliament with Labour the largest party, or a small Labour majority of around 19 to 23. Polls on the last few days before the country voted predicted a very slim Labour majority. After the polls closed, the BBC and ITV exit polls still predicted that there would be a hung parliament and "that the Conservatives would only just get more seats than Labour".

With opinion polls at the end of the campaign showing Labour and the Conservatives neck and neck, the actual election result, a small Conservative majority, was a surprise to many in the media and in polling organisations. The apparent failure of the opinion polls to come close to predicting the actual result led to an inquiry by the Market Research Society. Following the election, most opinion polling companies changed their methodology in the belief that a 'Shy Tory factor' affected the polling.

Graphical summary

National poll results Most national opinion polls do not cover Northern Ireland, which has different major political parties from the rest of the United Kingdom. The detailed results of parties in the 'others' column can sometimes be found under 'show'. All data is from UK Polling Report.

1992

Surveyend datePollsterClientConLabLDLead9 Apr 19921992 general election42.8%35.2%18.3%7.68 AprNOPThe Independent39%42%17%38 AprGallupThe Daily Telegraph38.5%38%20%0.58 AprMORIThe Times38%39%20%17 AprICMThe Guardian38%38%20%Tie7 AprHarrisITN38%40%18%26 AprMORIYTV37%40%20%34 AprHarrisDaily Express37%38%21%14 AprHarrisThe Observer38%40%17%23 AprNOPThe Mail on Sunday35%41%20%63 AprMORIThe Sunday Times37%39%21%23 AprGallupThe Sunday Telegraph37.5%37.5%21%Tie3 AprNOPThe Independent on Sunday38%41%17%33 AprICMPress Association36.2%38.7%20.4%2.51 AprICMSunday Express37%39%19%21 AprGallupThe Daily Telegraph38%37.5%20.5%0.531 MarNOPThe Independent37%39%19%231 MarNeilsenN/A39.8%39.6%17.2%0.231 MarHarrisITN35%41%19%630 MarICMThe Guardian37%41%18%430 MarHarrisDaily Express40%39%17%129 MarMORIThe Times35%42%19%728 MarAudience SelectionN/A37%39%19%228 MarNOPThe Independent on Sunday39%40%16%127 MarNOPThe Mail on Sunday37%41%18%427 MarMORIThe Sunday Times38%40%20%227 MarHarrisThe Observer40%38%17%225 MarICMSunday Express36%38%20%225 MarNOPThe Independent39%42%14%324 MarGallupThe Daily Telegraph40%40.5%16.5%0.524 MarMORIN/A38%41%17%324 MarICMThe Guardian39%40%17%123 MarNMREUR38%39%19%123 MarHarrisDaily Express43%38%15%523 MarHarrisITN38%42%16%421 MarMORIThe Times38%41%17%321 MarNOPThe Independent on Sunday38%40%16%220 MarNOPThe Mail on Sunday39%41%15%220 MarMORIThe Sunday Times38%41%19%320 MarHarrisThe Observer40%39%17%118 MarICMSunday Express37%42%16%518 MarGallupThe Daily Telegraph40.5%38.5%18%217 MarNOPThe Independent38%42%17%416 MarDissolution of Parliament and the official start of the election campaign16 MarICMThe Guardian38%43%16%516 MarHarrisDaily Express41%38%17%313 MarMORIThe Times38%43%16%513 MarHarrisDaily Express39%40%16%113 MarHarrisLondon Weekend Television37%41%17%413 MarMORIThe Sunday Times40%39%16%113 MarNOPThe Independent on Sunday40%41%14%112 MarICMSunday Express39%40%16%112 MarMORIThe Times38%41%16%312 MarHarrisThe Observer40%43%12%311 MarGallupN/A41%38.5%15%2.510 MarNOPThe Mail on Sunday41%40%15%17 MarGallupThe Daily Telegraph37%38%20%17 MarNOPThe Mail on Sunday38%41%16%36 MarICMThe Guardian39%42%15%32 MarHarrisThe Observer39%40%14%125 FebGallupThe Daily Telegraph38.5%38.5%18.5%Tie25 FebGallupThe Daily Telegraph37%37.5%20%0.523 FebMORIThe Sunday Times39%40%18%122 FebAudience SelectionN/A36%38%18%218 FebICMDaily Mail38%41%17%317 FebGallupThe Daily Telegraph39%37%19%214 FebNOPThe Independent38%42%15%413 FebICMSunday Express40%39%16%111 FebHarrisThe Observer39%40%15%18 FebGallupThe Daily Telegraph40%37.5%17.5%2.57 FebICMThe Guardian40%40%16%Tie6 FebNOPThe Independent on Sunday38%42%15%43 FebHarrisDaily Express39%40%17%128 JanGallupThe Daily Telegraph42.5%37.5%14%526 JanGallupThe Daily Telegraph38%39.5%17.5%1.525 JanAudience SelectionN/A40%40%15%Tie23 JanICMDaily Mail41%40%13%121 JanHarrisDaily Express41%40%14%121 JanGallupThe Daily Telegraph40%38%16.5%217 JanMORIThe Sunday Times42%39%16%316 JanICMSunday Express41%42%14%113 JanHarrisThe Observer42%43%13%113 JanGallupThe Daily Telegraph42%37.5%16%4.511 JanNOPThe Independent40%43%13%38 JanICMThe Guardian42%41%12%18 JanNOPThe Independent on Sunday40%45%12%5

1991

Surveyend datePollsterClientConLabLDLead27 DecMORIThe Sunday Times38%44%14%615 DecGallupThe Sunday Telegraph42%41.5%13%0.513 DecNOPThe Independent on Sunday41%40%14%17 DecICMThe Guardian39%42%14%35 DecMORIThe Times40%43%12%32 DecGallupThe Daily Telegraph39.5%37%19%2.52 DecAudience SelectionN/A39%40%16%125 NovMORIThe Sunday Times40%42%15%225 NovNOPThe Independent40%41%15%123 NovMORIThe Sunday Times41%43%13%223 NovICMDaily Mail39%41%16%214 NovHarrisThe Observer39%44%13%59 NovICMThe Guardian41%43%13%27 NovHemsworth by-election (Lab hold),Kincardine and Deeside by-election (LD gain from Con)and Langbaurgh by-election (Lab gain from Con)4 NovGallupThe Daily Telegraph36%44%15.5%81 NovMORIThe Sunday Times42%41%13%128 OctAudience SelectionN/A37%42%16%527 OctHarrisThe Observer39%45%12%626 OctICMDaily Mail40%42%13%221 OctMORIThe Sunday Times39%45%12%621 OctNOPThe Independent39%45%12%617 OctHarrisThe Observer39%46%12%712 OctICMThe Guardian41%43%12%25 OctNOPThe Independent on Sunday39%46%13%74 OctGallupThe Daily Telegraph39.5%41.5%15%23 OctICMPress Association40%42%13%230 SepGallupThe Daily Telegraph42%38%15%430 SepAudience SelectionN/A41%37%14%428 SepICMDaily Mail40%42%14%226 SepHarrisThe Observer40%41%13%126 SepNOPThe Mail on Sunday40%39%16%124 SepMORIThe Sunday Times39%39%17%Tie23 SepGallupThe Sunday Telegraph40%38.5%16%1.523 SepNOPThe Independent39%42%14%320 SepMORIN/A39%43%14%414 SepICMThe Guardian39%39%17%Tie13 SepICMSunday Express41%37%17%412 SepHarrisThe Observer43%38%16%57 SepNOPThe Independent on Sunday41%39%15%22 SepGallupThe Daily Telegraph39.5%35%19.5%4.527 AugMORIThe Sunday Times42%40%14%224 AugICMDaily Mail40%43%12%319 AugNOPThe Independent38%44%12%615 AugHarrisThe Observer40%41%14%110 AugICMThe Guardian36%45%16%95 AugGallupThe Daily Telegraph36%41%16.5%51 AugAudience SelectionN/A39%40%15%129 JulAudience SelectionN/A35%43%15%824 JulICMDaily Express38%44%13%622 JulMORIN/A38%43%15%520 JulICMDaily Mail37%44%16%718 JulHarrisThe Observer39%42%14%315 JulNOPThe Independent39%43%13%46 JulICMThe Guardian37%43%16%64 JulLiverpool Walton by-election (Lab hold)1 JulGallupThe Daily Telegraph37%40.5%17%3.527 JunNOPThe Mail on Sunday41%42%13%124 JunMORIN/A39%41%15%221 JunICMDaily Mail35%44%17%921 JunMORISunday Express39%38%17%117 JunNOPThe Independent37%45%14%813 JunHarrisThe Observer35%45%16%108 JunICMThe Guardian34%44%17%103 JunGallupThe Daily Telegraph33.5%41.5%21%82 JunHarrisTV-AM36%43%15%71 JunNMRThe Independent on Sunday37%43%16%61 JunAudience SelectionN/A41%42%13%128 MayMORIThe Sunday Times37%43%16%625 MayICMDaily Mail37%41%16%420 MayNOPThe Independent36%44%15%818 MayAudience SelectionN/A39%39%19%Tie16 MayHarrisThe Observer38%42%16%416 MayMonmouth by-election (Lab gain from Con)11 MayICMThe Guardian37%43%16%66 MayGallupThe Daily Telegraph38.5%38%18%0.52 MayLocal elections in England and Wales29 AprAudience SelectionN/A43%38%14%527 AprNMRThe Independent on Sunday47%37%14%1027 AprICMDaily Mail39%41%14%226 AprHarrisSunday Express41%41%14%Tie26 AprGallupThe Sunday Telegraph42%39%14%322 AprMORIThe Sunday Times42%40%15%222 AprNOPThe Independent41%41%13%Tie18 AprHarrisThe Observer40%40%14%Tie6 AprICMThe Guardian39%43%13%44 AprNeath by-election (Lab hold)3 AprICMDaily Express38%40%19%230 MarGallupThe Daily Telegraph39.5%34.5%18%525 MarMORIThe Sunday Times40%40%16%Tie24 MarICMDaily Mail41%40%15%122 MarMORISunday Express38%44%15%621 MarICMDaily Express37%40%14%314 MarHarrisThe Observer40%39%17%112 MarAudience SelectionN/A44%32%19%1211 MarNOPThe Independent38%39%18%19 MarICMThe Guardian39%40%16%18 MarMORISunday Express41%37%16%47 MarRibble Valley by-election (LD gain from Con)5 MarNOPN/A43%38%11%54 MarHarrisThe Observer47%39%9%81 MarGallupThe Daily Telegraph45%36.5%13%8.525 FebMORIThe Sunday Times44%41%11%323 FebICMDaily Mail44%43%9%116 FebNMRThe Independent on Sunday47%40%8%714 FebHarrisThe Observer46%42%8%413 FebNOPThe Independent45%42%9%39 FebICMThe Guardian44%42%9%24 FebGallupThe Daily Telegraph42%42.5%10%0.54 FebAudience SelectionN/A46%39%8%73 FebHarrisThe Observer47%39%9%828 JanAudience SelectionN/A51%34%8%1721 JanMORIThe Sunday Times46%41%9%517 JanHarrisThe Observer46%41%9%514 JanNOPThe Independent43%44%8%112 JanICMThe Guardian43%43%10%Tie11 JanHarrisITN47%41%7%610 JanMORIThe Times44%42%11%27 JanGallupThe Daily Telegraph43%41.5%10%1.56 JanAudience SelectionN/A39%43%11%4

1990