Food insecurity has been a persistent and recurrent crisis in South Sudan since independence in 2011. Early conditions fluctuated between stressed and crisis levels, with localized emergencies along the Sudan border. Although good rainfall and harvests in 2012 brought temporary improvements, the civil war that began in December 2013 severely disrupted agriculture, displaced millions, and sharply worsened food security. By 2014 and 2015, about one third of the population faced crisis or emergency levels.

Conditions deteriorated further in 2016 amid conflict, economic collapse, high food prices, and restricted humanitarian access. In February 2017, famine was declared in parts of Unity and Northern Bahr el Ghazal States. Around 4.9 million people required urgent assistance, and more than one million children were acutely malnourished. Although expanded humanitarian operations helped contain the famine by mid 2017, severe food insecurity persisted.

From 2018 onward, between 5 million and 6 million people were regularly classified in crisis or emergency phases, driven by ongoing insecurity, displacement, economic decline, erratic rainfall, flooding, and pest outbreaks. After the civil war, food insecurity remained extremely high, affecting over half the population in some years. Despite periods of modest improvement, renewed conflict, climate shocks, economic deterioration, and the arrival of returnees and refugees from Sudan led to further deterioration in 2024 and 2025, with around 6 million people still facing acute food insecurity.

Background

Famine globally No famine had been formally declared anywhere in the world during the six years prior to 2017. That year there were warnings of imminent famine in Yemen, Somalia, and the northeastern part of Nigeria, but the formal declaration requires that the following criteria be met: 20% of households suffer extreme food shortages. 30% of the population suffers extreme malnutrition. At least 1 per each 5,000 inhabitants die per day. A formal declaration of famine indicates that deaths from hunger have already begun to occur.

1998 famine in the region Before South Sudan’s independence, the area was affected by the 1998 Sudan famine. Bahr el Ghazal was the region most severely impacted. The famine there was driven by a combination of a two-year drought, a ban on humanitarian airdrops, restrictions on movement of displaced persons, confiscation of cattle and destruction of food stores.

Unity State experienced looting and burning, as well as the displacement of its inhabitants, during the fighting over oil reserves in the years leading up to the 1998 famine, as part of the Second Sudanese Civil War. In 1998, an estimated 12,000 people died of starvation in the Block 5A area alone, out of a population of approximately 240,000, while a further 160,000 people were forcibly displaced.

Insecurity

In 2013, the South Sudanese Civil War broke out in 2013 as a multi-sided conflict between the government and opposition forces, causing ethnic massacres and forced displacement. This conflict was identified by international humanitarian advocates as the driver of the famine, which they described as man made.

Since 2013, insecurity limited people's access to their livelihoods such as farmlands, grazing lands, and fishing areas. More than 3 million people had been displaced by ongoing violence across the country, forcing families to abandon agricultural land and livestock, leaving them with few food resources to survive with. The worst fighting was in Unity State, where tens of thousands of people fled their homes due to a government offensive against opposition-held areas.

A 2016 UN report described the former Unity State as the site of continuous fighting throughout the civil war because it has "great economic and symbolic importance because of its vast oil resources and also as a predominantly Nuer state, in a conflict that has pitted the two dominant tribes, Dinkas and Nuers, against each other". Instability is a major reason for the low oil production in South Sudan since 2012.

It has been argued that political rivalries were exacerbated by ethnic animosities, which led to violence and, consequently a famine.

Reduced agricultural production The conflict that began in 2013 also had a damaging effect on agricultural production across much of the country. Assessments indicated a sustained decline in cereal output since 2014, caused by less production per household in several areas and by the displacement of farming families who fled the country. The share of households engaged in farming also fell over time, reflecting the loss of productive assets through looting, distress sales, or displacement away from land and equipment.

Prolonged conflict severely depleted livestock holdings among poorer households, weakening an essential source of nutrition and income. Widespread looting and insecurity contributed to a marked reduction in access to milking cows, particularly in areas most affected by fighting. There was a sustained erosion of livestock based livelihoods, with some regions experiencing especially acute losses that further intensified food insecurity.

Inflation and poverty High inflation in South Sudan was driven by the monetization of the fiscal deficit by the Bank of South Sudan. Inflation peaked at 550% in 2016 before easing as the pace of money printing slowed, falling to about 102% the following year. Inflation severely constrained household purchasing power, leaving many families in both urban and rural areas unable to afford even minimum food needs.

The erosion of real wages contributed to a sharp increase in urban poverty, with 70% falling below the poverty line. As employment opportunities diminished, many working age people withdrew from the labor market, while others increasingly relied on informal work and coping strategies to support their households amid ongoing political instability.

Climate change

Although conflict was the principal driver of the famine in South Sudan, climate change also contributed to food insecurity, particularly in parts of the eastern region. The country experienced prolonged droughts, increasingly unreliable rainfall patterns, and rising temperatures. Over the past three decades, the country was among the fastest warming regions globally, with average temperatures increasing by up to 0.4°C per decade, a rate roughly two and a half times higher than the global average. Also rainfall declined by about 10 to 20%, making the climate drier. Some parts of South Sudan did not have rain in two years.

These prolonged drought conditions contributed to repeated food crises, livestock losses, internal displacement, cross border migration, and a sharp rise in humanitarian needs.

Food insecurity Early food insecurity From the establishment of South Sudan as a state in 2011, the IPC classified food insecurity in the country at stressed levels, corresponding to phase 2, with an estimated 24.5% of the population experiencing pressure on their food security. Famine reportedly led to deaths in Bentiu and Latjoor states in mid-2011, though the state governments of both denied hunger there was severe enough to cause fatalities.

In April 2012, food insecurity was slightly below the seasonal average, although conditions varied by area. Populations living along the border with Sudan, about 10% of the population, were assessed to be in phase 4, "emergency". Food insecurity at the time was driven by unfavorable terms of trade for livestock holders, increased reliance on markets during the lean season, conflict related displacement along the border, high food prices linked to the devaluation of the South Sudanese pound, border closures with Sudan, persistent insecurity from cattle raiding, and the arrival of refugees and returnees from Sudan. In November that same year, the food situation was improved compared to a year ago, largely due to better rainfall and a good harvest.

This positive trend continued in July 2013. Still, more than 1.6 million South Sudanese were in phase 3, "crisis" or above. The following year, however, saw a substantial deterioration compared with the previous year. More than 3.5 million people, about 30% of the population, were classified in crisis or emergency food insecurity, (IPC phases 3 and 4). The civil war that began in December 2013 disrupted agricultural activities by preventing farmers from planting seeds or forcing them to abandon their fields after planting. Severe flooding during the rainy season further aggravated the situation. Food insecurity conditions during this period varied considerably across the country, with the three most conflict affected states, Upper Nile, Jonglei, and Unity, experiencing significantly more severe conditions than the other seven states of South Sudan. Food security showed seasonal improvement in mid-2014, particularly in areas not affected by conflict, due to normal rainfall, good crop performance, and the start of the green harvest. However, displacement in Greater Upper Nile limited planting and reduced cereal production. Despite gains since mid 2014, food insecurity remained well above normal for a harvest period, with about 1.5 million people projected to remain in crisis or emergency, many relying on coping strategies such as kinship support and asset depletion.

Deteriorating food insecurity In June 2015, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network observed a spike in food prices and an increase in the number of households likely to face catastrophic famine, driven by currency depreciation and reduced import capacity.

In September 2015, reports from Leer County, the home of rebel leader Riek Machar, described widespread destruction of farms and cattle, large scale displacement, millions experiencing hunger and illness. They also noted reliance on food drops in inaccessible areas and deaths from malnutrition in the overcrowded UN camp in Bentiu. Less rain during the rainy season contributed in part by lowering crop yields and in part by reducing the length of a traditional pause in fighting for the rainy season.

By September 2015, an estimated 3.9 million people, about one third of the population, were severely food insecure. Conditions had worsened sharply compared with the previous year, with particular concern for around 30,000 people in Unity State experiencing catastrophe and at risk of famine. The lasting impact of conflict, high food prices, erratic rainfall, weakened livelihood systems, and restricted humanitarian access continued to strain food security across much of the country, including areas previously considered relatively stable. Food insecurity expanded for the first time into the Greater Equatoria region, driven by market disruption, economic decline, insecurity, and area specific crop losses. The economic decline pushed food prices to exceptionally high levels, which sharply reduced household purchasing power. Ongoing conflict continued to disrupt livelihoods through displacement.