Several polling firms conducted opinion polls during the term of the 52nd New Zealand Parliament in the lead up to the 2020 general election, which elects the 53rd Parliament. The 52nd Parliament was elected on 23 September 2017 and dissolved on 6 September 2020. The 2020 election was originally due to take place on Saturday 19 September 2020, but due to a second COVID-19 outbreak it was delayed until Saturday 17 October 2020.

Very few polls have been conducted compared to previous electoral cycles. The two regular polls are Television New Zealand (1News), conducted by Colmar Brunton, and MediaWorks New Zealand (Newshub) Reid Research, with less frequent polls from Roy Morgan Research. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

Party vote Graphical summary The first graph shows trend lines averaged across all polls for all political parties that are routinely included by polling companies. The second graph shows parties that received less than 10% of the party vote in the 2017 election, and are routinely included by polling companies.

Individual polls

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. The 'party lead' column shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. In the instance of a tie, both figures are shaded and displayed in bold. Percentages may not add to 100 percent due to polls not reporting figures for all minor parties and due to rounding. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations.

The parties shown in the table are National (NAT), Labour (LAB), New Zealand First (NZF), Green (GRN), ACT, Opportunities (TOP), Māori (MRI), New Conservative (NCP) and Advance New Zealand (ANZ). Other parties have also registered in some polls, but are not listed in this table. + DateThese are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released. Polling organisation Sample size NAT LAB NZF GRN ACT TOP MRI NCP ANZ Lead 17 Oct 2020 2020 election result 25.6 50.0 2.6 7.9 7.6 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.0 24.4 8–15 Oct 2020Newshub–Reid Research 1000 31.1 45.8 3.5 6.3 7.4 1.3 0.6 1.7 0.3 14.7 10–14 Oct 20201 News–Colmar Brunton 1005 31 46 2.6 8 8 1.1 0.6 1.5 0.9 15 3–7 Oct 20201 News–Colmar Brunton 1007 32 47 2.4 6 8 1.8 0.2 1.3 0.9 153 Oct 2020 Advance voting for the election begins. The Electoral Commission estimates 60% of voters will cast their vote before election day. Sep 2020Roy Morgan Research 911 28.5 47.5 2.5 9.5 7.0 1.5 0.5 – – 19 23–27 Sep 20201 News–Colmar Brunton 1005 33 47 1.4 7 8 1.0 0.8 1.4 0.6 14 16–23 Sep 2020Newshub–Reid Research 1000 29.6 50.1 1.9 6.5 6.3 0.9 1.5 2.1 – 20.5 17–21 Sep 20201 News–Colmar Brunton 1008 31 48 2.4 6 7 1.1 0.9 1.6 0.8 17Aug 2020Roy Morgan Research 897 28.5 48.0 2.5 11.5 6.0 1.0 0.5 – – 19.517 Aug 2020 Jacinda Ardern announces the election is postponed to 17 October 2020, over concerns relating to a recent rise in cases of COVID-19.Jul 2020Roy Morgan Research 899 26.5 53.5 1.5 8 6.5 1.5 0.5 – 2725–29 Jul 20201 News–Colmar Brunton 1004 32 53 2 5 4.8 0.1 1 1.2 2116–24 Jul 2020Newshub–Reid Research 1000 25.1 60.9 2.0 5.7 3.3 0.4 0.4 0.9 35.814 Jul 2020 Todd Muller resigns and Judith Collins is elected as leader of the National Party.Jun 2020Roy Morgan Research 879 27 54.5 1.5 9 5 1.5 1 – 27.520–24 Jun 20201 News–Colmar Brunton 1007 38 50 1.8 6 3.1 0.5 0.9 0.7 1227 Apr – 24 May 2020Roy Morgan Research 894 26.5 56.5 2.5 7 3.5 1 1.5 – 3022 May 2020 Todd Muller is elected leader of the National Party, replacing Simon Bridges.16–20 May 20201 News–Colmar Brunton 1003 29 59 2.9 4.7 2.2 0.5 1.2 0.4 308–16 May 2020Newshub–Reid Research 1000 30.6 56.5 2.7 5.5 1.8 0.1 0.9 1.0 25.914 May 2020 2020 Budget is delivered.Apr 2020Roy Morgan Research – 30.5 55 2.5 7 2.5 – – – 24.5Mar 2020Roy Morgan Research – 37 42.5 3 11.5 3.5 – – – 5.525 Mar 2020 Nationwide Level 4 restrictions are implemented due to the COVID-19 pandemic.Feb 2020Roy Morgan Research – 37 40.5 5 10.5 3.5 – – – 3.58–12 Feb 20201 News–Colmar Brunton 1004 46 41 3.3 5 1.7 0.1 1.1 0.8 523 Jan – 1 Feb 2020Newshub–Reid Research 1000 43.3 42.5 3.6 5.6 1.8 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.8Jan 2020Roy Morgan Research – 40 40 2.5 10.5 3 – – – Tie28 Jan 2020 Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announces that the election will take place on 19 September 2020.23–27 Nov 20191 News–Colmar Brunton 1006 46 39 4.3 7 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.8 77–11 Nov 2019Stuff–YouGov 1005 38 41 8 8 2 1 1 – 35–9 Oct 20191 News–Colmar Brunton 100847 40 4.2 7 0.9 0.5 0.8 0.4 72–9 Oct 2019Newshub–Reid Research 1000 43.9 41.6 4.0 6.3 1.4 1.1 0.7 1 2.320–24 Jul 20191 News–Colmar Brunton 1003 45 43 3.3 6 1 0.5 1.1 0.8 24–8 Jun 20191 News–Colmar Brunton 1002 44 42 5 6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 230 May – 7 Jun 2019Newshub–Reid Research 1000 37.4 50.8 2.8 6.2 0.8 0.1 0.5 1 13.430 May 2019 The 2019 Budget is delivered.6–10 Apr 20191 News–Colmar Brunton 1009 40 48 4.3 6 0.7 – 0.5 0.4 815–23 Mar 2019Business NZ–Reid Research 1000 41.3 49.6 2.3 3.9 – – – – 8.315 Mar 2019 Christchurch shootings targeting mosques kill 51 people and injure a further 49. Terror threat level is raised from low to high.9–13 Feb 20191 News–Colmar Brunton 1006 42 45 3 6 0.9 0.6 1.4 0.2 324 Jan – 2 Feb 2019Newshub–Reid Research 1000 41.6 47.5 2.9 5.1 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.1 5.924–28 Nov 20181 News–Colmar Brunton 1008 46 43 4 5 0.6 0.3 0.9 – 315–19 Oct 20181 News–Colmar Brunton 1006 43 45 5 7 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.3 22 Aug 2018Ardern returns as Prime Minister after six weeks of maternity leave.28 Jul – 1 Aug 20181 News–Colmar Brunton 1007 45 42 5 6 1.1 0.4 0.9 0.1 321 Jun 2018Ardern gives birth. Winston Peters becomes Acting Prime Minister.17–24 May 2018Newshub–Reid Research 1000 45.1 42.6 2.4 5.7 0.2 1.6 0.9 1.1 2.519–23 May 20181 News–Colmar Brunton 1007 45 43 4.2 5 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.2 217 May 2018 The 2018 Budget is delivered.7–11 Apr 20181 News–Colmar Brunton 1007 44 43 5 6 0.3 0.4 1.2 0.2 18 Apr 2018 Marama Davidson is elected co-leader of the Green Party.27 Feb 2018 Simon Bridges is elected leader of the National Party.10–14 Feb 201875% of respondents were polled before Bill English announced his resignation.1 News–Colmar Brunton 1007 43 48 2.6 5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.1 513 Feb 2018 Bill English announces he will stand down as National leader and resign from Parliament.18–28 Jan 2018Newshub–Reid Research 1000 44.5 42.3 3.8 6 0.2 1.4 0.8 0.3 2.22–28 Jan 2018Roy Morgan Research 1000 39 42.5 6 9 0.5 1.5 1 – 3.527 Nov – 10 Dec 2017Roy Morgan Research – 40.5 37 8 10 0.5 – – – 3.529 Nov – 5 Dec 20171 News–Colmar Brunton 1007 46 39 5 7 0.1 1.2 0.9 – 730 Oct – 12 Nov 2017Roy Morgan Research 887 40.5 39.5 5 10 0.5 2 1.5 – 126 Oct 2017 Jacinda Ardern is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand.2–15 Oct 2017Roy Morgan Research 894 46 31 6.5 11 0.5 2 1.5 – 15 23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 44.4 36.9 7.2 6.3 0.5 2.4 1.2 0.2 7.6 DateThese are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released. Polling organisation Sample size NAT LAB NZF GRN ACT TOP MRI NCP ANZ Lead

UMR and Curia polls These polls are typically unpublished and are used internally for Labour (UMR) and National (Curia). Although these polls are sometimes leaked or partially leaked, their details are not publicly available for viewing and scrutinising. Because not all of their polls are made public, it is likely that those that are released are cherry-picked and therefore may not truly indicate ongoing trends.

+ DateThese are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released. Polling organisation NAT LAB NZF GRN ACT Lead13 Oct 2020UMR Research 29 50 2.7 6 7 2125 Aug – 2 Sep 2020UMR Research 29 53 3.9 3.2 6.2 2412 Aug 2020UMR Research 28 52 5.1 5.4 5.9 2428 Jul 2020Curia 36 47 3 6 3 1130 Jun 2020Curia 34 55 – – – 2126 May – 1 Jun 2020UMR Research 30 54 5 4 – 2421–27 April 2020UMR Research 29 55 6 5 3 2614 April 2020Curia 31 49 6 9 5 188 April 2020UMR Research 35 49 5 5 2 1417 Feb 2020UMR Research 38 42 6 9 3 42 Feb 2020Curia 39 41 7 7 2 223 Jul 2019UMR Research 38 42 – 9 – 49 Nov 2018UMR Research 37 46 – – – 923 Sep 20172017 election result44.4 36.9 7.2 6.3 0.5 7.5

Preferred prime minister Some opinion pollsters ask voters who they would prefer as prime minister. The phrasing of questions and the treatment of refusals, as well as "don't know" answers, differ from poll to poll.

+ Date Polling organisation Sample size Jacinda Ardern Judith Collins Winston Peters James Shaw Marama Davidson David Seymour Leighton Baker Billy Te Kahika Todd Muller Simon Bridges Bill English Lead8–15 Oct 2020Newshub–Reid Research 1,000 52.6 18.4 – – – – – – – – – 34.210–14 Oct 2020 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,005 55 20 1 0.4 0.1 3 0.4 0.4 – 0.4 – 353–7 Oct 2020 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,007 50 23 1 0.1 0.5 2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 2723–27 Sep 2020 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,005 54 23 1 0.1 0.2 2 0.1 0.4 – 0.1 0.1 3116–23 Sep 2020Newshub–Reid Research 1,000 53.2 17.7 – – – – – – – – – 35.517–21 Sep 2020 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,008 54 18 2 0.1 – 2 0.3 0.2 – 0.1 0.3 3625–29 Jul 20201 News–Colmar Brunton 1,004 54 20 1 0.1 0.1 1 0.1 0.7 0.2 – – 3416–24 Jul 2020Newshub–Reid Research 1,000 62 14.6 – – – – – – – – – 47.414 Jul 2020 Todd Muller resigns and Judith Collins is elected as leader of the National Party.20–24 Jun 20201 News–Colmar Brunton 1,007 54 2 2 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.1 – 13 0.4 0.2 4126 May – 1 Jun 2020UMR Research – 65 – – – – – – – 13 – – 5222 May 2020 Todd Muller is elected leader of the National Party.16–20 May 20201 News–Colmar Brunton 1,003 63 3 1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 – 0.2 5 0.1 588–16 May 2020Newshub–Reid Research 1,000 59.5 3.1 – – – – – – – 4.5 – 5121–27 Apr 2020UMR Research – 65 7 3 – – – – – – 7 – 588–12 Feb 20201 News–Colmar Brunton 1,004 42 3 3 0.1 0.5 0.8 – – – 11 0.2 3123 Jan – 1 Feb 2020Newshub–Reid Research 1,000 38.7 – – – – – – – – 10.6 – 28.123–27 Nov 20191 News–Colmar Brunton 1,006 36 4 3 0.3 – 0.6 – – – 10 – 265–9 Oct 20191 News–Colmar Brunton 1,008 38 5 4 0.3 0.3 0.4 – – 0.2 9 0.1 292–9 Oct 2019Newshub–Reid Research 1,000 38.4 5.2 – – – – – – – 6.7 – 31.720–24 Jul 20191 News–Colmar Brunton 1,003 41 6 2 – 0.1 0.4 – – 0.1 6 0.2 354–8 Jun 20191 News–Colmar Brunton 1,002 45 6 5 0.1 – 0.5 – – – 5 0.1 3930 May – 7 Jun 2019Newshub–Reid Research 1,000 49 7.1 – – – – – – – 4.2 – 41.96–10 Apr 20191 News–Colmar Brunton 1,006 51 5 3 0.2 – 0.2 – – – 5 0.3 469–13 Feb 20191 News–Colmar Brunton 1,006 44 6 3 0.2 – 0.1 – – – 6 0.4 3824 Jan – 2 Feb 2019Newshub–Reid Research 1,000 41.8 6.2 – – – – – – – 5.0 – 35.624–28 Nov 20181 News–Colmar Brunton 1,008 39 6 4 0.1 – 0.1 – – – 7 0.4 3215–19 Oct 20181 News–Colmar Brunton 1,006 42 5 4 0.1 0.1 – – – – 7 1 352 Aug 2018 Jacinda Ardern returns as Prime Minister after six weeks of maternity leave.28 Jul – 1 Aug 20181 News–Colmar Brunton 1,007 40 2 5 0.3 0.3 0.2 – – – 10 0.9 3021 Jun 2018 Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern gives birth. Winston Peters becomes Acting Prime Minister.17–24 May 2018Newshub–Reid Research 1,000 40.2 3.7 4.6 – – – – – – 9 4.2 31.219–23 May 20181 News–Colmar Brunton 1,007 41 2 4 0.2 – 0.1 – – – 12 0.9 297–11 Apr 20181 News–Colmar Brunton 1,007 37 2 5 – – 0.3 – – – 10 2 278 Apr 2018 Marama Davidson is elected co-leader of the Green Party.27 Feb 2018 Simon Bridges is elected leader of the National Party.10–14 Feb 20181 News–Colmar Brunton 1,007 41 0.4 4 0.4 – 0.1 – – – 1 20 2118–28 Jan 2018Newshub–Reid Research 1,000 37.9 0.2 5.7 0.1 – – – – – 0.5 25.7 12.229 Nov – 5 Dec 20171 News–Colmar Brunton 1,007 37 0.7 5 0.4 – – – – – 0.3 28 9

Government approval rating