The 2022 United States Senate election in Wisconsin was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate from Wisconsin. The party primaries were held on August 9, 2022. Incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson won election to a third term, defeating Democratic Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes by 26,718 votes—a one-point margin of victory. In this election, Johnson won 5 counties he lost in 2016, while his overall victory margin decreased from both 2010 and 2016.
In 2016, Johnson had pledged to serve only two terms in the Senate. He reversed this decision in 2022. The race was one of the most competitive of the cycle, and it followed considerable Democratic success in recent statewide elections. In 2018, Democrats won every statewide contest on the ballot, including the election for the state's other Senate seat. This was one of the two Republican-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Joe Biden won in the 2020 presidential election.
Barnes led in most polls during the summer of 2022. In the final weeks prior to the election, Johnson took a lead of more than three points in the polling average. Though Johnson ultimately prevailed, this election was the closest of his three Senate victories. This was the first Senate election in Wisconsin since 1998 in which the winning candidate was of a different party than the winner of the concurrent gubernatorial election.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee Ron Johnson, incumbent U.S. senator
Eliminated in primary David Schroeder, former educator
Disqualified Brad Beyer, U.S. Army veteran Keith Neubert, paramedic
Withdrawn John Berman, electronic hardware designer, test engineer, and candidate for U.S. Senate (Minnesota and Kansas) in 2020
Declined David Beth, Kenosha County sheriff Sean Duffy, former U.S. representative from Mike Gallagher, U.S. representative from (ran for re-election; endorsed Johnson) Eric Hovde, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2012 Rebecca Kleefisch, former lieutenant governor of Wisconsin (ran for governor; endorsed Johnson) Kevin Nicholson, businessman, former member of the Wisconsin Board of Veterans Affairs, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018 (ran for governor) Bryan Steil, U.S. representative from (ran for re-election; endorsed Johnson) Scott Walker, former governor of Wisconsin
Endorsements
Results
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee Mandela Barnes, lieutenant governor of Wisconsin
Eliminated in primary Kou Lee, restaurant owner Adam Murphy, business owner Steven Olikara, founder and CEO of Millennial Action Project Peter Peckarsky, attorney and candidate for chair of the Democratic National Committee in 2017 Darrell Williams, Wisconsin Emergency Management administrator
Did not file Chantia Lewis, Milwaukee Common Councillor
Withdrew Gillian Battino, radiologist (ran for state treasurer) Sarah Godlewski, state treasurer of Wisconsin (endorsed Barnes; remained on ballot) Chris Larson, state senator from the 7th district (endorsed Barnes) Alex Lasry, senior vice president of the Milwaukee Bucks and former intern in the Obama administration (endorsed Barnes; remained on ballot) Tom Nelson, Outagamie County executive, former Majority Leader of the Wisconsin Assembly, and nominee for lieutenant governor of Wisconsin in 2010 and for in 2016 (endorsed Barnes; remained on ballot) Jeff Rumbaugh, disability rights activist and candidate for governor in 2018 (endorsed Nelson)
Declined Tony Evers, governor of Wisconsin (ran for re-election) Josh Kaul, attorney general of Wisconsin (ran for re-election) Ron Kind, U.S. representative from Mark Pocan, U.S. representative from (ran for re-election)
Fundraising Candidate Unitemized (<$200) individual contributions Itemized (>$200) individual contributions Self funding Coverage endingMandela Barnes$2,668,973.10$3,305,480.72$0.00Coverage ending: 06/30/2022
Endorsements
Polling Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error MandelaBarnes SarahGodlewski AlexLasry TomNelson Other Undecided July 29, 2022 Godlewski withdraws from the race and endorses Barnes July 27, 2022 Lasry withdraws from the race and endorses Barnes July 25, 2022 Nelson withdraws from the race and endorses BarnesImpact Research (D)Impact Research (D)July 12–17, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%39%12%25%5%–18%Change Research (D)Change Research (D)July 1–7, 2022560 (LV)± 4.6%40%12%16%6%1%22%Marquette UniversityMarquette UniversityJune 14–20, 2022381 (LV)± 6.2%25%9%21%7%1%36%Normington Petts (D)Normington Petts (D) May 18–22, 2022700 (LV)± 3.7%34%18%31%5%–12%Marquette UniversityMarquette UniversityApril 19–24, 2022311 (LV)± 6.6%19%7%16%5%2%49%Impact Research (D)Impact Research (D)March 16–23, 2022449 (LV)± 4.6%38%9%17%8%3%26%Normington Petts (D)Normington Petts (D) February 23–27, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%35%7%27%7%–24%Marquette UniversityMarquette University February 22–27, 2022362 (LV)± 5.7%23%3%13%5%5%49%Impact Research (D)Impact Research (D)December 8–16, 2021842 (LV)± 3.4%40%10%11%8%3%29%Data for Progress (D)Data for Progress (D)November 11–15, 2021524 (LV)± 4.0%39%5%16%6%5%29%Normington Petts (D)November 2021– (LV)–37%5%15%7%–36%Clarity Campaign Labs (D)Clarity Campaign Labs (D)August 28–30, 2021698 (LV)± 3.7%37%7%5%8%3%38%Normington Petts (D)August 2021– (LV)–43%5%4%7%–41%
Results
General election
Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political Report November 4, 2022 Inside Elections April 1, 2022 Sabato's Crystal Ball March 1, 2022PoliticoApril 1, 2022RCPJanuary 10, 2022Fox News May 12, 2022DDHQAugust 17, 2022538October 20, 2022The EconomistNovember 1, 2022
Debates + 2022 United States Senate general election in Wisconsin debates Date Host Moderator Link Republican DemocraticKey: Participant Absent Non-invitee Invitee Withdrawn Ron Johnson Mandela Barnes 1 Oct. 7, 2022 Wisconsin Broadcasters Association Jill GeislerYoutube 2 Oct. 13, 2022 Marquette University Charles BensonShannon SimsC-SPAN
Endorsements
Polling Aggregate polls Source of pollaggregationDatesadministeredDatesupdated RonJohnson (R) MandelaBarnes (D) UndecidedMarginRealClearPoliticsRealClearPoliticsOctober 24 – November 5, 2022November 8, 202250.2%46.6%3.2%Johnson +3.6FiveThirtyEightFiveThirtyEightAugust 15 – November 8, 2022November 8, 202250.4%47.0%2.6%Johnson +3.4270toWin270toWinNovember 3–7, 2022November 7, 202250.2%46.6%3.2%Johnson +3.6Average50.3%46.7%3.0%Johnson +3.6 Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error RonJohnson (R) MandelaBarnes (D) Other UndecidedCiviqsCiviqsNovember 4–7, 2022739 (LV)± 3.7%50%49%–1%Research Co.Research Co.November 4–6, 2022450 (LV)± 4.6%51%45%–4%Data for Progress (D)Data for Progress (D)November 2–5, 20221,504 (LV)± 2.0%53%47%––The Trafalgar Group (R)The Trafalgar Group (R)November 2–4, 20221,095 (LV)± 2.9%50%47%–3%Marquette UniversityMarquette UniversityOctober 24 – November 1, 2022802 (RV)± 4.6%48%45%5%1%679 (LV)± 4.8%50%48%1%1%Clarity Campaign Labs (D)Clarity Campaign Labs (D) October 27–31, 2022888 (LV)± 3.3%46%48%–6%Siena CollegeSiena CollegeOctober 27–31, 2022655 (LV)± 4.8%47%45%2%6%Fox NewsFox NewsOctober 26–30, 20221,000 (RV)± 3.0%48%45%3%5%Wick InsightsWick InsightsOctober 26–30, 20221,089 (LV)± 3.2%50%46%2%2%Emerson CollegeEmerson CollegeOctober 27–29, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%50%46%2%3%51%46%3%–Patriot PollingPatriot PollingOctober 20–23, 2022801 (RV)–52%43%–5%Data for Progress (D)Data for Progress (D)October 14–22, 20221,376 (LV)± 3.0%51%46%–2%CNN/SSRSCNN/SSRSOctober 13–17, 2022905 (RV)± 4.2%45%48%5%1%714 (LV)± 4.5%50%49%1%–Clarity Campaign Labs (D)Clarity Campaign Labs (D)October 7–11, 2022874 (LV)± 3.3%47%48%–5%Marquette UniversityMarquette UniversityOctober 3–9, 2022801 (RV)± 4.3%47%47%5%2%652 (LV)± 4.8%52%46%2%1%YouGov/CBS NewsYouGov/CBS NewsOctober 3–7, 20221,138 (RV)± 3.7%50%49%–1%Public Policy Polling (D)Public Policy Polling (D)September 26–27, 2022574 (V)–47%47%–6%Fox NewsFox NewsSeptember 22–26, 20221,012 (RV)± 3.0%48%44%3%5%Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)September 18–25, 20221399 (LV)± 4.4%51%46%–5%Data for Progress (D)Data for Progress (D)September 20–23, 2022999 (LV)± 3.0%50%48%–3%The Trafalgar Group (R)The Trafalgar Group (R)September 15–19, 20221087 (LV)± 2.9%49%47%–5%Emerson CollegeEmerson CollegeSeptember 16–18, 2022860 (LV)± 3.27%48%44%3%6%Big Data Poll (R)Big Data Poll (R)September 17–18, 2022852 (LV)± 3.4%49%46%––Siena CollegeSiena CollegeSeptember 14–15, 2022651 (LV)± 4.5%47%48%2%4%OnMessage Inc. (R)OnMessage Inc. (R)September 11–13, 2022800 (LV)–49%45%–6%CiviqsCiviqsSeptember 10–13, 2022780 (LV)± 3.7%49%48%1%2%Marquette UniversityMarquette UniversitySeptember 6–11, 2022801 (RV)± 4.3%48%47%–5%632 (LV)± 4.7%49%48%–3%The Trafalgar Group (R)The Trafalgar Group (R)August 22–25, 20221,091 (LV)± 2.9%47%49%–4%Fox NewsFox NewsAugust 12–16, 20221,006 (RV)± 3.0%46%50%1%4%Marquette UniversityMarquette UniversityAugust 10–15, 2022811 (RV)± 4.2%44%51%1%4%713 (LV)± 4.5%45%52%0%3%Marquette UniversityMarquette UniversityJune 14–20, 2022803 (RV)± 4.3%44%46%1%8%Clarity Campaign Labs (D)Clarity Campaign Labs (D)September 8–11, 2021756 (LV)± 3.6%43%43%–14%
Ron Johnson vs. Sarah Godlewski Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error RonJohnson (R) SarahGodlewski (D) Other UndecidedMarquette UniversityJune 14–20, 2022803 (RV)± 4.3%43%45%2%10%Clarity Campaign Labs (D)Clarity Campaign Labs (D)September 8–11, 2021756 (LV)± 3.6%44%41%–15%
Ron Johnson vs. Alex Lasry Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error RonJohnson (R) AlexLasry (D) Other UndecidedMarquette UniversityJune 14–20, 2022803 (RV)± 4.3%45%42%2%11%Clarity Campaign Labs (D)September 8–11, 2021756 (LV)± 3.6%45%41%–14%
Ron Johnson vs. Tom Nelson Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error RonJohnson (R) TomNelson (D) Other UndecidedMarquette UniversityJune 14–20, 2022803 (RV)± 4.3%43%44%2%11%Change Research (D)Change Research (D)March 25–27, 20211,723 (LV)± 2.6%44%48%–5%
Results
By county