2018 United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota

The 2018 United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota was held on November 6, 2018, to elect the U.S. representative for North Dakota's at-large congressional district. The election coincided with the U.S. Senate election, as well as other statewide, legislative, and local elections.

Though incumbent Republican U.S. Representative Kevin Cramer announced on January 11, 2018 that he would run for re-election to a fourth term, he later expressed an intention to run for the United States Senate instead. On February 16, 2018, Cramer announced his Senate campaign.

Republican primary State Senator Tom Campbell stated that he intended to run for the U.S. Senate if Cramer ran for re-election, and to run for the U.S. House if Cramer did not run for re-election. Campbell declared for the seat following Cramer's run for Senate. However, on April 11, Campbell dropped out of the race to endorse Armstrong.

Candidates Nominated Kelly Armstrong, state senator

Declared Tiffany Abentroth, U.S. Marine Corps veteran Paul Schaffner, oil field employee

Withdrew Tom Campbell, state senator

Declined Kevin Cramer, incumbent U.S. Representative (running for U.S. Senate) Gary Emineth, former chairman of the North Dakota Republican Party

Polling

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferrorTiffanyAbentrothKellyArmstrongTomCampbellJulieFedorchakDuWayneHendricksonUndecidedGravis MarketingGravis Marketing February 21–24, 2018 385 ± 5.0% 1% 13% 28% 9% 1% 47%

Results

Democratic-NPL primary The Democratic-NPL Party held their state convention on March 16 and 17, during which delegates voted to endorse Mac Schneider. Although general election ballot access was actually controlled by a primary election to be held June 12, both other candidates decided to withdraw from the race, rather than challenge Schneider in the primary.

Candidates Endorsed Mac Schneider, former Minority Leader of the North Dakota Senate

Withdrawn John Grabinger, state senator Ben Hanson, former state representative

Results

General election Predictions +SourceRankingAs ofThe Cook Political ReportJune 1, 2018The Rothenberg Political ReportJune 1, 2018Sabato's Crystal BallJune 6, 2018

Debates +Hostnetwork/sponsorsDateLink(s)ParticipantsMacSchneider (D)KellyArmstrong (R)KFYR-TVAugust 16, 2018InvitedInvitedPrairie PublicSeptember 11, 2018InvitedInvitedKFGOSeptember 19, 2018InvitedInvited

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KellyArmstrong (R) MacSchneider (D) Other UndecidedFOX NewsFOX News October 27–30, 2018 789 LV ± 3.0% 55% 33% 2% 10% 851 RV ± 3.0% 52% 32% 3% 12%Strategic Research AssociatesStrategic Research Associates October 12–19, 2018 650 ± 3.8% 56% 35% – 9%FOX NewsFOX News September 29 – October 2, 2018 704 LV ± 3.5% 51% 34% 2% 12% 801 V ± 3.5% 49% 33% 2% 14%Strategic Research AssociatesStrategic Research Associates September 17–27, 2018 650 ± 3.8% 55% 31% – 14%FOX NewsFOX News September 8–11, 2018 701 LV ± 3.5% 48% 34% 2% 15% 804 V ± 3.5% 47% 32% 2% 17%Axis Research (R-Armstrong)Axis Research (R-Armstrong) August 26–28, 2018 506 ± 4.5% 53% 32% – 15%Mason-DixonMason-Dixon June 13–15, 2018 625 ± 4.0% 46% 35% – 19%Axis Research (R-Armstrong)Axis Research (R-Armstrong) May 13–14, 2018 509 ± 4.5% 48% 26% – 26%

Results

By county CountyKelly ArmstrongRepublicanMac SchneiderDemocratic-NPLAll othersMarginTotal#%#%#%#%Adams87875.8%23620.4%443.8%64255.4%1,158Barnes2,78555.9%1,99240.0%2084.1%79315.9%4,985Benson90940.5%1,22554.6%1094.9%-316-14.1%2,243Billings46982.9%7613.4%213.7%39369.5%566Bottineau2,31671.2%80624.8%1324.0%1,51046.4%3,254Bowman1,33181.3%25315.4%543.3%1,07865.9%1,638Burke77981.6%15115.8%252.6%62865.8%955Burleigh30,97768.2%12,62327.8%1,8464.0%18,35440.4%45,446Cass35,25546.3%37,66449.4%3,2704.3%-2,409-3.1%76,189Cavalier1,21663.1%64333.4%683.5%57329.7%1,927Dickey1,37563.8%71833.3%612.8%65730.5%2,154Divide85971.9%29024.3%453.8%56947.6%1,194Dunn1,60379.2%37918.7%432.1%1,22460.5%2,025Eddy71858.6%45937.4%494.0%25921.2%1,226Emmons1,50882.6%26214.3%564.0%1,24668.3%1,826Foster1,13269.1%45027.5%573.4%68241.6%1,639Golden Valley72182.8%12314.1%273.1%59868.7%871Grand Forks13,13747.9%12,29348.5%1,0073.6%-156-0.6%27,437Grant1,01180.0%21016.6%433.4%80163.4%1,264Griggs78264.3%40733.5%272.2%37530.8%1,216Hettinger1,05582.8%18414.4%352.8%87168.4%1,274Kidder98977.2%23518.3%574.5%75458.9%1,281LaMoure1,30764.0%67433.0%623.0%63331.0%2,043Logan79581.0%15716.0%293.0%63865.0%981McHenry1,79770.6%62424.5%1264.9%1,17345.9%2,547McIntosh1,09875.9%29720.5%523.6%80155.4%1,447McKenzie3,15876.6%81219.7%1523.7%2,34656.9%4,122McLean3,49869.9%1,30726.1%1984.0%2,19143.8%5,003Mercer3,04077.1%74618.9%1574.0%2,29458.2%3,943Morton10,24069.6%3,74225.4%7255.0%6,49844.2%14,707Mountrail2,34862.1%1,28634.0%1473.9%1,06228.1%3,781Nelson87954.3%69042.6%513.1%18911.7%1,620Oliver77279.8%15215.7%444.5%62064.1%968Pembina1,87664.1%96332.9%883.0%91331.2%2,927Pierce1,29768.3%54128.5%613.2%75639.8%1,899Ramsey2,85457.0%1,91938.3%2364.7%93518.7%5,009Ransom1,07246.9%1,10748.4%1074.7%-35-1.5%2,286Renville91376.4%22018.4%625.2%69358.0%1,195Richland3,85354.0%2,95741.4%3264.6%89612.6%7,136Rolette1,29226.3%3,32767.7%2966.0%-2,035-41.4%4,015Sargent96248.7%93147.1%844.2%311.6%1,977Sheridan63580.6%11514.6%384.8%52066.0%788Sioux31522.3%98469.7%1128.0%-669-47.4%1,411Slope31983.5%5313.9%102.6%26669.6%382Stark9,77480.5%1,94616.0%4283.5%7,82864.5%12,148Steele46148.2%46548.6%313.2%-4-0.4%957Stutsman5,78462.3%3,11033.5%3954.2%2,67428.8%9,289Towner66659.6%41336.9%393.5%25322.7%1,118Traill1,94452.5%1,61043.5%1474.0%3349.0%3,701Walsh2,72360.9%1,58035.3%1703.8%1,14325.6%4,473Ward16,04667.5%6,41827.0%1,3225.5%9,62840.5%23,786Wells1,65274.5%47621.5%894.0%1,17653.0%2,217Williams8,39376.4%2,07418.9%5194.8%6,31957.5%10,986Totals193,56860.2%114,37735.6%13,5874.2%79,19124.6%321,532 Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Cass (largest city: Fargo) Grand Forks (largest city: Grand Forks) Benson (largest CDP: Fort Totten) Ransom (largest city: Lisbon) Steele (largest city: Finley)

References

External links Candidates at Vote Smart Candidates at Ballotpedia Campaign finance at FEC Campaign finance at OpenSecrets

Official campaign websites Kelly Armstrong (R) for Congress Mac Schneider (D) for Congress