2020 North Carolina gubernatorial election

The 2020 North Carolina gubernatorial election was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the governor of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to one-third of the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Democratic incumbent Roy Cooper was elected to a second term, defeating Republican lieutenant governor Dan Forest. Cooper became the first North Carolina governor to win re-election since Mike Easley in 2004. He also outperformed other Democrats on the ballot and was the only Democrat to win a gubernatorial race in a state carried by Donald Trump in 2020. With a margin of 4.51%, this election was the second closest of the 2020 gubernatorial election cycle after Puerto Rico and the closest in a U.S. state.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee Roy Cooper, incumbent governor

Eliminated in primary Ernest T. Reeves, retired U.S. Army captain and perennial candidate

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error RoyCooper ErnestReeves UndecidedHigh Point UniversityHigh Point University February 21–28, 2020 269 (LV) –74% 13% 13% 468 (RV) –68% 14% 18%SurveyUSA/WRAL-TVSurveyUSA/WRAL-TV February 13–16, 2020 698 (LV) ± 4.9%73% 9% 18%High Point UniversityHigh Point University January 31 – February 6, 2020 198 (LV) –80% 8% 12% 400 (RV) –69% 10% 21%

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee Dan Forest, lieutenant governor of North Carolina

Eliminated in primary Holly Grange, state representative

Declined Pat McCrory, former governor of North Carolina Mark Meadows, former U.S. Representative for North Carolina's 11th congressional district, White House Chief of Staff

Endorsements

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DanForest HollyGrange PatMcCrory UndecidedHigh Point UniversityHigh Point University February 21–28, 2020 246 (LV) –74% 13% – 13% 443 (RV) –64% 12% – 24%SurveyUSA/WRAL-TV February 13–16, 2020 698 (LV) ± 5.0%60% 8% – 32%High Point UniversityHigh Point University January 31 – February 6, 2020 198 (LV) –67% 8% – 25% 400 (RV) –54% 10% – 36% December 19, 2019 McCrory announces he will not runHarper Polling (R)Harper Polling (R) December 2–4, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.38% 31% 3%42% 25%

Results

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Nominee Steven J. DiFiore, candidate for Charlotte City Council in 2017, factory lighting representative

Constitution Party

Nominee Al Pisano, chairman of the Constitution Party of North Carolina

General election

Predictions SourceRankingAs ofThe Cook Political ReportOctober 23, 2020Inside ElectionsOctober 28, 2020Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 2, 2020PoliticoNovember 2, 2020Daily KosOctober 28, 2020RCPNovember 2, 2020270towinNovember 2, 2020

Endorsements

Debates A debate between Cooper and Forest occurred 7:00 pm EDT, October 14, 2020.Associated Press, Roy Cooper, Dan Forest Agree to Oct. 14 Debate, Spectrum News (August 27, 2020). DatesLocationCooperForestLinkOctober 14, 2020Raleigh, North CarolinaParticipantParticipantFull debateFull debate - C-SPAN

Polling

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error RoyCooper (D) DanForest (R) Other /UndecidedSwayableSwayable October 27 – November 1, 2020655 (LV)± 5.5%55%43%2%Frederick Polls (D)Frederick Polls (D)October 30–31, 2020676 (LV)± 3.7%52%45%3%Emerson CollegeEmerson CollegeOctober 29–31, 2020855 (LV)± 3.3%55%45%1%CNN/SSRSCNN/SSRS October 23–30, 2020901 (LV)± 4%52%42%5%East Carolina UniversityEast Carolina UniversityOctober 27–28, 20201,103 (LV)± 3.4%54%43%2%Cardinal Point Analytics (R)Cardinal Point Analytics (R)October 27–28, 2020750 (LV)± 3.6%47%45%8%Marist College/NBCMarist College/NBCOctober 25–28, 2020800 (LV)± 4.7%59%40%1%Gravis MarketingGravis MarketingOctober 26–27, 2020614 (LV)± 4%51%43%6%Meeting Street Insights (R)Meeting Street Insights (R) October 24–27, 2020600 (LV)± 4%51%43% –Siena College/NYT UpshotSiena College/NYT UpshotOctober 23–27, 20201,034 (LV)± 3.4%51%42%7%RMG ResearchRMG Research October 24–26, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%53%41%6%SwayableOctober 23–26, 2020386 (LV)± 6.9%53%44%3%SurveyUSA/WRAL-TVSurveyUSA/WRAL-TVOctober 23–26, 2020627 (LV)± 4.9%53%42%6%YouGov/UMass AmherstYouGov/UMass Amherst October 20–26, 2020 911 (LV) ± 4.2%54% 42% 3%Harper Polling/Civitas (R)Harper Polling/Civitas (R) October 22–25, 2020 504 (LV) ± 4.4%52% 42% 5%Meredith CollegeMeredith College October 16–19, 2020732 (LV)± 3.5%52%34%16%East Carolina UniversityEast Carolina UniversityOctober 15–18, 20201,155 (LV)± 3.4%53%44%2%Emerson CollegeEmerson CollegeOctober 13–14, 2020721 (LV)± 3.6%50%46%4%Civiqs/Daily KosCiviqs/Daily KosOctober 11–14, 20201,211 (LV)± 3.3%53%46%1%Siena College/NYT UpshotSiena College/NYT UpshotOctober 9–13, 2020627 (LV)± 4.5%51%37%12%Monmouth UniversityMonmouth UniversityOctober 8–11, 2020500 (RV)± 4.4%51%44%5%500 (LV)52%44%3%500 (LV)51%46%3%SurveyUSASurveyUSAOctober 8–11, 2020669 (LV)± 4.8%52%39%10%RMG ResearchRMG Research October 7–11, 2020800 (LV) –51%37%12%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy PollingOctober 4–5, 2020911 (V) ± 3.3%52%40%8%East Carolina UniversityEast Carolina University October 2–4, 2020 1,232 (LV) ± 3.2%53% 40% 7%ALG Research (D)ALG Research (D) September 22–28, 2020 822 (V) –53%43% –YouGov/UMass LowellYouGov/UMass Lowell September 18–25, 2020 921 (LV) ± 4.1%54% 41% 4%Meredith CollegeMeredith College September 18–22, 2020 705 (RV) ± 3.5%50% 39% 11%Harper Polling/Civitas (R)Harper Polling/Civitas (R) September 17–20, 2020 612 (LV)± 3.96%46%39%14%Siena College/NYT UpshotSiena College/NYT UpshotSeptember 11–16, 2020653 (LV)± 4.3%47%42%10%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesRedfield & Wilton StrategiesSeptember 12–15, 20201,092 (LV)± 2.97%55%36%9%Suffolk UniversitySuffolk University September 10–14, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4%50%38% 12%SurveyUSASurveyUSA September 10–13, 2020 596 (LV) ± 5.6%49%42% 10%CNN/SSRSCNN/SSRSSeptember 9–13, 2020787 (LV)± 4.4%53%44%2%893 (RV)± 4.1%53%42%5%Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political ReportKaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political ReportAugust 29 – September 13, 20201,116 (RV) –48%38%14%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesRedfield & Wilton StrategiesAugust 30 – September 3, 2020951 (LV)± 3.18%54%35%11%Monmouth UniversityMonmouth UniversityAugust 29 – September 1, 2020401 (RV)± 4.9%51%40%8%401 (LV)51%42%7%401 (LV)51%42%7%East Carolina UniversityEast Carolina UniversityAugust 29–30, 20201,101 (LV)± 3.4%50%40%10%Redfield and Wilton StrategiesRedfield and Wilton StrategiesAugust 16–19, 2020967 (LV)± 3.2%51%38%11%East Carolina UniversityEast Carolina UniversityAugust 12–13, 20201,255 (RV)± 3.2%52%38%11%Emerson CollegeEmerson CollegeAugust 8–10, 2020673 (LV)± 3.8%50%44%7%Harper Polling/Civitas (R)Harper Polling/Civitas (R)August 6–10, 2020600 (LV)± 4.0%49%39%13%Public Policy Polling (D)Public Policy Polling (D)July 23–24, 2020884 (V)± 3.4%53%42%5%Cardinal Point Analytics (R)Cardinal Point Analytics (R) July 22–24, 2020735 (LV)± 3.6%46%46%8%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesRedfield & Wilton StrategiesJuly 19–23, 2020919 (LV)± 3.2%51%37%12%Marist College/NBC NewsMarist College/NBC NewsJuly 14–22, 2020882 (RV)± 4.0%58%38% 4%Cardinal Point Analytics (R)Cardinal Point Analytics (R)July 13–15, 2020547 (LV)± 4.2%49%46%5%East Carolina UniversityEast Carolina UniversityJune 22–25, 20201,149 (RV)± 3.4%49%38%13%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy PollingJune 22–23, 20201,157 (V)± 2.9%50%41%10%NYT Upshot/Siena CollegeNYT Upshot/Siena CollegeJune 8–18, 2020653 (RV)± 4.1%50%39%11%Gravis Marketing (R)Gravis Marketing (R)June 17, 2020631 (RV)± 3.9%46%46%8%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesRedfield & Wilton StrategiesJune 14–17, 2020902 (LV)± 3.6%52%31%17%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy PollingJune 2–3, 2020913± 3.2%50%39%11%Harper Polling/Civitas (R)Harper Polling/Civitas (R)May 26–28, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%49%37%14%Neighbourhood Research & MediaNeighbourhood Research & Media May 12–21, 2020 391 (LV) –47% 35% 18%Meeting Street Insights (R)Meeting Street Insights (R) May 9–13, 2020 500 (RV) –55% 37% 8%East Carolina UniversityEast Carolina UniversityMay 7–9, 20201,111 (RV)± 3.4%51%36%13%Civiqs/Daily KosCiviqs/Daily KosMay 2–4, 20201,362 (RV)± 3.0%53%44%3%Meredith CollegeMeredith College April 27–28, 2020 604 (RV) ± 4.0% 52% 32% 16%SurveyUSASurveyUSA April 23–26, 2020 580 (LV) ± 5.4% 57% 30% 13%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling April 20–21, 2020 1,275 (V) ± 3.2% 53% 40% 7%Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D) April 13–18, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5%55%36% 9%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling April 14–15, 2020 1,318 (V) ± 3.4% 50% 36% 13%Harper Polling/Civitas (R)Harper Polling/Civitas (R) April 5–7, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 33% 17%East Carolina UniversityEast Carolina University February 27–28, 2020 1,288 (RV) ± 3.2%49% 41% 10%Harper Polling/Civitas (R)Harper Polling/Civitas (R) October 15–17, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 36% 18%Meredith CollegeMeredith College September 29 – October 7, 2019 996 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 33% 21%Harper Polling/Civitas (R)Harper Polling/Civitas (R) August 1–4, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 36% 16%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling June 17–18, 2019 610 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 41% 14%Harper Polling (R)Harper Polling (R) June 8–10, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 37% 16%Emerson CollegeEmerson College May 31 – June 3, 2019 932 (RV) ± 3.1% 52% 38% 10%Spry Strategies (R)Spry Strategies (R) May 25 – June 1, 2019 730 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 44% 16%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling January 4–7, 2019 750 (RV) ± 3.6% 47% 35% 18%

with Holly Grange Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error RoyCooper (D) HollyGrange (R) Other /UndecidedEast Carolina University February 27–28, 2020 1,288 (RV) ± 3.2%49% 33% 18%Harper Polling/Civitas (R)Harper Polling/Civitas (R) October 15–17, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 27% 27%Harper Polling/Civitas (R) August 1–4, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 30% 22%

with Phil Berger Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error RoyCooper (D) PhilBerger (R) Other /UndecidedPublic Policy Polling June 17–18, 2019 610 (RV) ± 4.0% 46% 39% 16%Public Policy Polling January 4–7, 2019 750 (RV) ± 3.6% 48% 34% 18%

with Pat McCrory Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error RoyCooper (D) PatMcCrory (R) Other /UndecidedHarper Polling/Civitas (R)Harper Polling/Civitas (R) October 15–17, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 44% 38% 18%Harper Polling/Civitas (R) August 1–4, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 38% 14%Public Policy Polling January 4–7, 2019 750 (RV) ± 3.6% 45% 41% 14%

with Tim Moore Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error RoyCooper (D) TimMoore (R) Other /UndecidedPublic Policy Polling June 17–18, 2019 610 (RV) ± 4.0% 46% 38% 16%Public Policy Polling January 4–7, 2019 750 (RV) ± 3.6% 46% 32% 22%

with Thom Tillis Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error RoyCooper (D) ThomTillis (R) Other /UndecidedPublic Policy Polling January 4–7, 2019 750 (RV) ± 3.6% 46% 37% 17%

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Jackson (largest city: Cullowhee)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Lenoir (largest city: Kinston) Martin (largest city: Williamston)

By congressional district Despite winning a majority of the popular vote, Cooper only won five of 13 congressional districts. District Forest Cooper Representative 42.6% 56.4%G. K. Butterfield 31.4% 67.0%Deborah K. Ross 58.5% 40.0%Greg Murphy 29.9% 68.8%David Price 63.5% 35.2%Virginia Foxx 34.2% 64.2%Kathy Manning 54.5% 44.0%David Rouzer 49.2% 49.0%Richard Hudson 50.3% 48.4%Dan Bishop 63.7% 35.0%Patrick McHenry 52.2% 46.3%Madison Cawthorn 27.0% 71.0%Alma Adams 62.9% 35.9%Ted Budd

Analysis Voter demographics Voter demographic data was collected by CNN. The voter survey is based on exit polls. There were 4,557 total respondents.