2018 New Mexico gubernatorial election

The 2018 New Mexico gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of New Mexico, concurrently with the election of New Mexico's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various local elections. This was one of eight Republican-held governorships up for election in a state carried by Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election.

Incumbent Republican Governor Susana Martinez was term-limited and could not seek a third consecutive term. Following party primaries on June 5, 2018, U.S. Representative Steve Pearce was the Republican nominee and U.S. Representative Michelle Lujan Grisham was the Democratic nominee. Lujan Grisham won the election by a substantial margin, which in fact was a complete and exact reversal of the 2014 gubernatorial results. Her win also signaled a continuation of the pattern of the partisanship of the office changing every two terms, beginning with Gary Johnson's first election in 1994. Furthermore, the pattern of the partisanship changing with each officeholder was continued, a pattern first started after Toney Anaya left office in 1987. Furthermore, the margin between the candidates (57.2% to 42.8%) was the same as the previous election, albeit with the parties switched.

Background At the presidential level, New Mexico has begun to trend into a Democratic-leaning swing state. It has gone Democratic in all but one presidential election since 1992. The only break in this trend came in 2004, when George W. Bush won it by less than a point. However, in 2008, Barack Obama won the state over John McCain by 15 points and in 2012 by 10 points over Mitt Romney. In 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton defeated Republican Donald Trump by eight points.

However, in 2010, then-District Attorney of New Mexico's Third Judicial District Susana Martinez won the election, becoming the first US Latina Governor, over Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish, former running mate of two-term Democrat Bill Richardson, by approximately seven points. In 2014, Martinez was re-elected over state Attorney General Gary King by nearly 15 points. It has been described as one of the Democrats' best chances at a pickup, due to Gov. Martinez's unpopularity and because "she's leaving behind a high unemployment rate and struggling education system."Phillips, Amber, "The top 10 gubernatorial races of 2018, "The Washington Post", January 6, 2018

The 2018 primary election results show 116,311 votes for Democratic candidate Michelle Lujan Grisham and a total of 175,182 for all three Democratic candidates while Republican candidate/nominee Steve Pearce received 74,705; note that 23% of New Mexico's registered voters are third party or independents (280,000), who do not vote in the primary election.

Republican primary Governor Candidates Nominated Steve Pearce, U.S. Representative, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2000 and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2008

Declined Aubrey Dunn Jr., New Mexico Commissioner of Public Lands and candidate for NM-02 in 2008 John Sanchez, lieutenant governor and nominee for governor of New Mexico in 2002

Results

Lieutenant governor Candidates Declared Michelle Garcia Holmes, former chief of staff to Attorney General Gary King, former police detective and candidate for mayor of Albuquerque in 2017

Withdrew Kelly Zunie, former secretary of the New Mexico Indian Affairs Department

Declined Ted Barela, former state senator Mark Moores, state senator Cliff Pirtle, state senator

Results

Democratic primary Governor

Candidates Nominated Michelle Lujan Grisham, U.S. Representative

Eliminated in primary Jeff Apodaca, businessman and son of former governor Jerry Apodaca Joe Cervantes, state senator

Declined Hector Balderas, Attorney General (running for re-election) Javier Gonzales, former mayor of Santa Fe (running for lieutenant governor) Martin Heinrich, U.S. senator (running for reelection) Tim Keller, mayor of Albuquerque and former State Auditor Ben Ray Luján, U.S. Representative Tom Udall, U.S. Senator Alan Webber, mayor of Santa Fe and candidate for governor in 2014

Endorsements

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JeffApodaca JoeCervantes Michelle Other UndecidedResearch & Polling, Inc. May 20–24, 2018 444 (LV) ± 4.6% 15% 9% 57% – 19%GQR Research (D) February 14–19, 2018 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 13% 6% 72% 2% 6%GQR Research (D) October 12–18, 2017446 (LV) ± 4.6% 10%3% 75% 2% 10%

Results

Lieutenant governor Candidates Declared Billy Garrett, Doña Ana County Commissioner Rick Miera, former Majority Leader of the New Mexico House of Representatives Howie Morales, state senator and candidate for governor in 2014

Withdrew Jeff Carr, retired teacher and former New Mexico Public Education Commissioner Javier Gonzales, former mayor of Santa Fe David McTeigue, juvenile probation officer Michael Padilla, state senator

Declined Brian Colón, former chairman of the Democratic Party of New Mexico, nominee for lieutenant governor in 2010 and candidate for mayor of Albuquerque in 2017 (running for State Auditor) Bill O'Neill, state senator

Results

Libertarian primary Based on the party's voter registration numbers and presidential nominee Gary Johnson's result in 2016, the Libertarian Party holds major-party status in New Mexico.Press release Under New Mexico law, both gubernatorial and lieutenant governor candidates must receive each at least 230 signatures from registered Libertarian voters to formally receive the nomination and be placed on the ballot as the Libertarian nominees. Both Walsh and Dunn failed to meet that requirement and were not on the ballot.

Governor Candidates Declared Bob Walsh, retired mathematician

Declined Aubrey Dunn, Jr., Commissioner of Public Lands (ran for the U.S. Senate, but dropped out) Gary Johnson, former Republican governor and nominee for president in 2012 and 2016 (running for the U.S. Senate)

Results

Lieutenant governor Candidates Declared Robin Dunn, wife of Aubrey Dunn, Jr.

Results

General election Endorsements

Debates Complete video of debate, September 19, 2018

Predictions SourceRankingAs ofThe Cook Political Report October 26, 2018The Washington Post November 5, 2018FiveThirtyEight November 5, 2018Rothenberg Political Report November 1, 2018Sabato's Crystal Ball November 5, 2018RealClearPolitics November 4, 2018Daily Kos November 5, 2018Fox News November 5, 2018Politico November 5, 2018Governing November 5, 2018

Polling

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error StevePearce (R) Michelle LujanGrisham (D) UndecidedResearch Co. November 1–3, 2018 450 (V) ± 4.6% 41% 53% 6%Research & Polling, Inc. October 26 – November 1, 2018 993 (LV) ± 3.1% 43% 53% 4%Carroll Strategies October 29, 2018 1,200 (LV) ± 2.8% 45% 51% 4%Emerson College October 24–26, 2018 936 (LV) ± 3.4% 44% 53% 4%GQR Research (D) October 22–26, 2018 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 53% 4%Pacific Market Research October 19–24, 2018 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 39% 48% 13%NSON Opinion Strategy (L) September 20–24, 2018 932 (LV) – 40% 44% 16%Research & Polling, Inc. September 7–13, 2018 966 (LV) ± 3.1% 43% 50% –Global Strategy Group (D) August 27–30, 2018 601 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 52% 5%GQR Research (D) August 18–22, 2018 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 52% –Emerson College August 17–18, 2018 500 (RV) ± 4.6% 40% 42% 18%The Tarrance Group (R) April 9–12, 2018 608 (LV) ± 4.1% 45% 47% 8%The Tarrance Group (R) May 20–23, 2017 605 (RV) ± 4.1% 43% 47% 10%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error StevePearce (R) Michelle LujanGrisham (D) BobWalsh (L) UndecidedNSON Opinion Strategy (L) July 2018500 (LV) – 37% 44% 7% 11%SurveyUSA June 19–23, 2018 535 (LV) ± 5.0% 38% 51% 3% 8%Carroll Strategies June 15–16, 2018 1,199 (LV) ± 2.8% 42% 51% 3% 4%

Results

By county County Michelle Lujan GrishamDemocratic Steve PearceRepublican Margin Total votes cast # % # % # %Bernalillo149,48062.10%91,22137.90%58,25924.20%240,701Catron51127.73%1,33272.27%-821-44.55%1,843Chaves5,34832.02%11,35267.98%-6,004-35.95%16,700Cibola3,98855.94%3,14144.06%84711.88%7,129Colfax2,32749.91%2,33550.09%-8-0.17%4,662Curry3,10630.41%7,10769.59%-4,001-39.18%10,213De Baca22928.06%58771.94%-358-43.87%816Doña Ana36,95460.64%23,98539.36%12,96921.28%60,939Eddy4,63129.29%11,17870.71%-6,547-41.41%15,809Grant7,04359.72%4,75040.28%2,29319.44%11,793Guadalupe1,02160.27%67339.73%34820.54%1,694Harding17837.24%30062.76%-122-25.52%478Hidalgo78548.25%84251.75%-57-3.50%1,627Lea3,08622.15%10,84577.85%-7,759-55.70%13,931Lincoln2,62533.48%5,21666.52%-2,591-33.04%7,841Los Alamos6,00558.61%4,24041.39%1,76517.23%10,245Luna2,96748.30%3,17651.70%-209-3.40%6,143McKinley13,11771.46%5,23828.54%7,87942.93%18,355Mora1,66471.05%67828.95%98642.10%2,342Otero6,45037.73%10,64462.27%-4,194-24.53%17,094Quay1,14437.03%1,94562.97%-801-25.93%3,089Rio Arriba9,35273.00%3,45927.00%5,89346.00%12,811Roosevelt1,43030.74%3,22269.26%-1,792-38.52%4,652San Juan13,34735.78%23,96164.22%-10,614-28.45%37,308San Miguel7,00175.78%2,23824.22%4,76351.55%9,239Sandoval30,42555.09%24,80344.91%5,62210.18%55,228Santa Fe52,69278.54%14,39421.46%38,29857.09%67,086Sierra1,88039.81%2,84360.19%-963-20.39%4,723Socorro3,59657.44%2,66442.56%93214.89%6,260Taos11,80681.46%2,68718.54%9,11962.92%14,493Torrance2,04838.17%3,31761.83%-1,269-23.65%5,365Union41528.15%1,05971.85%-644-43.69%1,474Valencia11,71748.07%12,65951.93%-942-3.86%24,376Total398,36857.20%298,09142.80%100,27714.40%696,459

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Bernalillo (largest city: Albuquerque) Cibola (largest city: Grants) Doña Ana (largest city: Las Cruces) Grant (largest city: Silver City) Guadalupe (largest city: Santa Rosa) Los Alamos (largest city: Los Alamos) McKinley (largest city: Gallup) Sandoval (largest city: Rancho) Socorro (largest city: Socorro)

By congressional district Grisham won two of three congressional districts, with Pearce winning the remaining one, which elected a Democrat. District Pearce Lujan Grisham Representative39%61%Michelle Lujan GrishamDeb Haaland53%47%Steve PearceXochitl Torres Small 39% 61%Ben Ray Luján

2018 New Mexico gubernatorial election

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