2020 United States Senate election in New Hampshire

The 2020 United States Senate election in New Hampshire was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of New Hampshire, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen won reelection to a third term after comfortably defeating Republican nominee Bryant Messner by 15.6 points and sweeping every single county in the state. This marked the first Senate election since 1972 in which the Democrat carried Belknap County.

Shaheen's final margin outperformed Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden in the concurrent presidential election by around 8 percentage points, while carrying two counties that voted for Donald Trump.

The primary election was held on September 8, 2020. This was the first New Hampshire U.S. Senate race since 2010 where any candidate won every county.

Democratic primary Candidates Nominee Jeanne Shaheen, incumbent U.S. senator

Eliminated in primary Tom Alciere, former Republican state representative Paul J. Krautmann, former dentist

Endorsements

Results

Republican primary Candidates Nominee Bryant Messner, corporate attorney and former U.S. Army soldier

Eliminated in primary Gerard Beloin, ski instructor Don Bolduc, former U.S. Army Special Forces brigadier general Andy Martin, journalist and perennial candidate

Withdrew Bill O'Brien, former speaker of the New Hampshire House of Representatives

Declined Kelly Ayotte, former U.S. senator and former attorney general of New Hampshire Al Baldasaro, state representative (endorsed Bill O'Brien) Scott Brown, U.S. Ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa, former U.S. senator from Massachusetts, 2014 Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate in New Hampshire Eddie Edwards, former police chief of South Hampton, former chief of the New Hampshire State Division of Liquor Enforcement, and nominee for New Hampshire's 1st congressional district in 2018 (accepted executive state appointment) Corey Lewandowski, President Donald Trump's former campaign manager Jay Lucas, businessman Chris Sununu, incumbent governor of New Hampshire (ran for re-election)

Endorsements

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error Don Bolduc Corey Lewandowski Bryant Messner Bill O'Brien Other UndecidedUniversity of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire August 28 – September 1, 2020 703 (LV) ± 3.7%31% –52% –0%17%Saint Anselm CollegeSaint Anselm College August 15–17, 2020 475 (RV) ± 4.5% 29% –31% – 4%37%The Tarrance GroupThe Tarrance Group July 12–14, 2020 401 (LV) ± 5%27% –39% – – –Remington Research GroupRemington Research Group June 21–23, 2020 800 (LV) –8% –17% – –73% April 2, 2020 O'Brien withdraws from the race December 31, 2019 Lewandowski announces he will not runEmerson CollegeEmerson College September 6–9, 2019 379 (RV) ± 5.0% 9%29% 4% 7% –56%Vote Adjustments/WMURVote Adjustments/WMUR September 5–6, 2019 402 (LV) ± 4.2% 9%29% 2% 6% –49% September 4, 2019 Messner announces his candidacyRemington Research (R)Remington Research (R) August 12–14, 2019 200 (RV) – 21% 21%2%8% –47%Fabrizio (R)Fabrizio (R) August 11–12, 2019 400 (LV) –11%30% –10% – –

Results

Other candidates

Libertarian Party Nominee Justin O'Donnell, Libertarian nominee for New Hampshire's 2nd congressional district in 2018, qualified for general election ballot by petition on September 2, 2020

Bull Moose Party Did not qualify Thomas Sharpe V, firefighter and U.S. Navy veteran

General election Debate + 2020 New Hampshire United States Senate election debate Date Host Moderator Link Democratic Republican LibertarianKey: Participant Absent Not invited Invited Withdrawn Jeanne Shaheen Bryant Messner Justin O'Donnell1 Oct. 20, 2020 WMUR-TV Laura KnoyAnnie RopeikYouTube

Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political Report October 29, 2020 Inside Elections October 28, 2020 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 2, 2020Daily Kos October 30, 2020PoliticoNovember 2, 2020RCPOctober 23, 2020DDHQNovember 3, 2020538November 2, 2020EconomistNovember 2, 2020

Additional general election endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JeanneShaheen (D) BryantMessner (R) Other /UndecidedAmerican Research GroupAmerican Research Group October 26–28, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4%57% 40% 3%University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire October 24–28, 2020 864 (LV) ± 3.3%54% 43% 2%Saint Anselm CollegeSaint Anselm College October 23–26, 2020 1,018 (LV) ± 3.1%54% 39% 8%YouGov/UMass LowellYouGov/UMass Lowell October 16–26, 2020 757 (LV) ± 4.5%57% 38% 5%University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire October 9–12, 2020 899 (LV) ± 3.3%55% 40% 6%Suffolk UniversitySuffolk University October 8–12, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4%51% 36% 13%Saint Anselm CollegeSaint Anselm College October 1–4, 2020 1,147 (LV) ± 2.9%53% 38% 8%Emerson CollegeEmerson College September 30 – October 1, 2020 700 (LV) ± 3.6%55% 40% 5%American Research Group September 25–28, 2020 600 (LV)± 4%56%40%4%University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire September 24–28, 2020 972 (LV) ± 3.1%54% 41% 5%YouGov/UMass LowellYouGov/UMass Lowell September 17–25, 2020 657 (LV) ± 4.6%56% 37% 7%University of New Hampshire August 28 – September 1, 2020 1,889 (LV) ± 2.3%54% 36% 9%University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire July 16–28, 2020 1,893 (LV) ± 2.2%54% 35% 12%University of New Hampshire June 18–22, 2020 932 (LV) ± 2.8%50% 37% 13%University of New Hampshire May 14–18, 2020 788 (LV) ± 3.2%52% 34% 14%University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire February 19–25, 2020 576 (RV) ± 4.1% 52% 28% 21%

with Don Bolduc Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JeanneShaheen (D) DonBolduc (R) Other /UndecidedUniversity of New Hampshire August 28 – September 1, 2020 1,889 (LV) ± 2.3%53% 37% 10%University of New Hampshire July 16–28, 2020 1,893 (LV) ± 2.2%54% 35% 10%University of New Hampshire June 18–22, 2020 932 (LV) ± 2.8%51% 39% 11%University of New Hampshire May 14–18, 2020 788 (LV) ± 3.2%50% 39% 11%University of New Hampshire February 19–25, 2020 576 (RV) ± 4.1% 49% 30% 22%Remington Research (R) August 12–14, 2019 427 (RV) ± 4.7% 47% 42% 11%Gravis MarketingGravis Marketing August 2–6, 2019 505 (RV) ± 4.4% 51% 38% 11%

with Corey Lewandowski Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JeanneShaheen (D) CoreyLewandowski (R) Other /UndecidedAmerican Research Group December 12–16, 2019 539 (RV) ± 4.2% 58% 35% 7%Emerson College November 22–26, 2019 1,184 (RV) ± 2.8% 52% 40% 8%American Research Group September 20–24, 2019 560 (RV) ± 4.1% 56% 34% 10%Emerson College September 6–9, 2019 1,041 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 39% 12%Remington Research (R) August 12–14, 2019 427 (RV) ± 4.7% 50% 37% –

with Bill O'Brien Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JeanneShaheen (D) BillO'Brien (R) Other UndecidedUniversity of New Hampshire February 19–25, 2020 576 (RV) ± 4.1% 51% 30% 5% 14%Gravis Marketing August 2–6, 2019 505 (RV) ± 4.4% 52% 39% – 9%

with Chris Sununu Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JeanneShaheen (D) ChrisSununu (R) UndecidedEmerson CollegeEmerson College February 21–22, 2019 910 (RV) ± 3.2% 44% 44% 12%YouGov/UMass AmherstYouGov/UMass Amherst February 7–15, 2019 600 (RV) ± 4.8% 45% 42% 10%

with Kelly Ayotte Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JeanneShaheen (D) KellyAyotte (R) UndecidedYouGov/UMass Amherst February 7–15, 2019 600 (RV) ± 4.8% 41% 36% 20%

with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error GenericDemocrat GenericRepublican Other UndecidedSaint Anselm College August 15–17, 2020 1,042 (RV) ± 3%49%44%2%4%Saint Anselm CollegeSaint Anselm College Jun 13–16, 2020 1,072 (RV) ± 3%46%43%2%8%Saint Anselm CollegeSaint Anselm CollegeApr 23–27, 2020820 (RV)± 3.4%49%42%3%6%

Results

By county

CountyJeanne ShaheenDemocraticBryant MessnerRepublicanJustin O'DonnellLibertarianWrite-inMarginTotalvotes#%#%#%#%#%Belknap18,70449.1518,53648.717652.01460.121680.4438,051Carroll17,67053.6114,69444.585781.75160.052,9769.0332,958Cheshire26,75063.0315,69036.971,1222.64330.0811,06026.0642,440Coös8,75253.577,22244.213622.2200.001,5309.3716,336Grafton34,04363.7718,09233.891,2122.27390.0715,95129.8853,386Hillsborough129,10056.5093,60740.975,6302.461370.0635,49315.53228,474Merrimack52,34358.7434,68738.922,0312.28520.0617,65619.8189,113Rockingham105,81853.7286,93744.144,1122.09940.0518,8819.59196,961Strafford44,41560.9426,46536.311,9472.67610.0817,95024.6372,888Sullivan13,18354.5810,29942.646622.7580.032,88411.9424,152 Totals450,77856.64326,22940.9918,4212.314860.06124,54915.65795,914 Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Belknap (largest municipality: Laconia) Hillsborough (largest municipality: Manchester) Rockingham (largest municipality: Derry)

By congressional district Shaheen won both congressional districts.

District Shaheen Messner Representative 56% 42%Chris Pappas 57% 40%Annie Kuster

2020 United States Senate election in New Hampshire

Bron en licentie