2018 Iowa gubernatorial election

The 2018 Iowa gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018. Incumbent Republican Governor Kim Reynolds ran for election to a full term, facing Democratic businessman Fred Hubbell, Libertarian Jake Porter, and independent candidate Gary Siegwarth.

On election day, Reynolds won 50.3% of the vote, a 2.8% margin of victory, and carried 88 of Iowa's 99 counties. She became the first female governor of Iowa elected in her own right. This was the first Iowa gubernatorial election since 1998 in which the winner was of the same party as the incumbent president.

Background After the 2016 presidential election, President Donald Trump nominated then-Governor Terry Branstad to be the U.S. ambassador to China. When Branstad was confirmed by the United States Senate, he resigned as Iowa governor to assume the ambassadorship on May 24, 2017. Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds then became governor of Iowa.

Republican primary Candidates Nominated Kim Reynolds, incumbent governor of Iowa

Withdrew Ron Corbett, mayor of Cedar Rapids Steven Ray, mayor pro tempore of Boone

Declined Terry Branstad, U.S. ambassador to China and former governor Steve King, U.S. representative Bill Northey, U.S. under secretary of agriculture for Farm and Foreign Agricultural Services and former secretary of agriculture of Iowa Bob Vander Plaats, president and CEO of The Family Leader, candidate for governor of Iowa in 2002, 2006 and 2010 and nominee for lieutenant governor of Iowa in 2006

Endorsements

Results

Democratic primary Candidates Nominated Fred Hubbell, businessman

Eliminated in primary Cathy Glasson, president of SEIU Local 199 Andy McGuire, former chairwoman of the Iowa Democratic Party and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2006 John Norris, former chief of staff to Governor Tom Vilsack, former Federal Energy Regulatory Commission member and nominee for IA-04 in 2002 Ross Wilburn, former mayor of Iowa City

Withdrew Nate Boulton, state senator Rich Leopold, director of the Polk County Conservation Board and former director of the Iowa Department of Natural Resources Mike Matson, Davenport alderman Jon Neiderbach, attorney, former member of the Des Moines School Board and nominee for state auditor in 2014 Todd Prichard, state representative

Declined Chaz Allen, state senator Joe Bolkcom, state senator Bill Brauch, former director of the Consumer Protection Division of the Iowa Attorney General's Office Mike Carberry, Johnson County supervisor Jeff Danielson, state senator Michael Gronstal, former majority leader of the Iowa Senate Chris Hall, state representative Rita Hart, state senator (nominee for lieutenant governor) Jack Hatch, former state senator and nominee for governor of Iowa in 2014 Rob Hogg, minority leader of the Iowa Senate and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016 Pam Jochum, state senator Dave Loebsack, U.S. representative Liz Mathis, state senator Jim Mowrer, nominee for IA-04 in 2014 and IA-03 in 2016 (ran for the nomination for secretary of state) Tyler Olson, former state representative, former chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party and candidate for governor of Iowa in 2014 Janet Petersen, state senator Steve Sodders, former state senator Tom Vilsack, former U.S. secretary of agriculture and former governor of Iowa

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error NateBoulton CathyGlasson FredHubbell AndreaMcGuire JonNeiderbach JohnNorris RossWilburn Other UndecidedSelzer & CompanySelzer & Company May 13–15, 2018 501 ± 4.4% 20% 13% 31% 5% – 5% 3% 10% 14%RemingtonRemington May 5–6, 2018 2,315 ± 2.0% 20% 7% 46% 3% – 5% 1% – 18%20-20 Insight20-20 Insight November 8–10, 2017 762 ± 3.6% 13% 6% 22% 3% 2% 5% 1% – 47%

Results

Libertarian primary Libertarian Party presidential nominee Gary Johnson received 3.8 percent of the votes in Iowa in 2016, surpassing the 2 percent threshold to attain full political party status. As a result, the Libertarian Party was allowed to hold a primary to select a nominee.

Candidates Nominated Jake Porter, business consultant

Declared Marco Battaglia, musician Jake Porter, nominee for secretary of state in 2010 and 2014

Endorsements

Results

Independents Candidates Gary Siegwarth, fisheries biologist

Withdrew Brent Roske, director and candidate for CA-33 in 2014

Endorsements

General election Debates Dates Location Reynolds Hubbell LinkOctober 17, 2018Sioux City, IowaParticipantParticipantFull debateFull debate - C-SPANOctober 21, 2018Davenport, IowaParticipantParticipantFull debateFull debate - C-SPAN

Predictions SourceRankingAs ofThe Cook Political Report October 26, 2018The Washington Post November 5, 2018FiveThirtyEight November 5, 2018Rothenberg Political Report November 1, 2018Sabato's Crystal Ball November 5, 2018RealClearPolitics November 4, 2018Daily Kos November 5, 2018Fox News November 5, 2018Politico November 5, 2018Governing November 5, 2018

Polling

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KimReynolds (R) FredHubbell (D) JakePorter (L) Other UndecidedChange ResearchChange Research November 2–4, 2018 961 – 46% 49% 3% 1%Gary Siegwarth (Clear Water) with 1% –Selzer & CompanySelzer & Company October 30 – November 2, 2018 801 ± 3.5% 44% 46% 2% 1% 7%Emerson CollegeEmerson College October 29 – November 1, 2018 1,462 ± 2.7% 49% 45% – 2% 5%University of IowaUniversity of Iowa October 8–22, 2018 452 – 40% 48% – 5% 6%Selzer & CompanySelzer & Company September 17–20, 2018 555 ± 4.2% 41% 43% 7% 0% 9%Emerson CollegeEmerson College September 6–8, 2018 1,000 ± 3.2% 31% 36% – 7% 26%Selzer & CompanySelzer & Company January 28–31, 2018 801 ± 3.5% 42% 37% – 12% 10%

with Nate Boulton Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KimReynolds (R) NateBoulton (D) Other UndecidedSelzer & Company January 28–31, 2018 801 ± 3.5% 41% 37% 11% 11% with Cathy Glasson Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KimReynolds (R) CathyGlasson (D) Other UndecidedSelzer & Company January 28–31, 2018 801 ± 3.5% 44% 31% 14% 12% with generic Democrat Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KimReynolds (R) GenericDemocrat Undecided20/20 Insights (D-Mowrer)20/20 Insights (D-Mowrer) June 19–21, 2017 526 ± 4.3% 44% 39% 17% with John Norris Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KimReynolds (R) JohnNorris (D) Other UndecidedSelzer & Company January 28–31, 2018 801 ± 3.5% 41% 30% 14% 15% with Andy McGuire Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KimReynolds (R) AndyMcGuire (D) Other UndecidedSelzer & Company January 28–31, 2018 801 ± 3.5% 42% 30% 15% 13%

Results While pre-election polls showed Reynolds trailing Hubbell, Reynolds won 50.3% of the vote on election day, primarily by sweeping every county west of Des Moines and dominating the 4th Congressional District (she lost the other three). Ultimately, she carried 88 of Iowa's 99 counties. She became the first female governor of Iowa elected in her own right.

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Black Hawk (largest city: Waterloo) Clinton (largest city: Clinton) Des Moines (largest city: Burlington) Dubuque (largest city: Dubuque) Jefferson (largest city: Fairfield) Lee (largest city: Fort Madison) Linn (largest city: Cedar Rapids) Polk (largest city: Des Moines) Scott (largest city: Davenport) Story (largest city: Ames)

By congressional district Despite losing the state, Hubbell won three of four congressional districts. District Reynolds Hubbell Representative 48% 49%Abby Finkenauer 47% 51%Dave Loebsack 47% 51%Cindy Axne 59% 39%Steve King

2018 Iowa gubernatorial election

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