The 2018 Texas gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor of Texas, concurrently with the election of Texas's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other congressional, state, and local elections throughout the United States and Texas. Incumbent Republican governor Greg Abbott won re-election to a second term in office defeating Democratic nominee Lupe Valdez, the former sheriff of Dallas County, and Libertarian nominee Mark Tippetts, a former member of the Lago Vista city council.
The Republican and Democratic party primaries were held on March 6, 2018, making them the first primaries of the 2018 electoral season. Abbott won the March 6 primary with 90% of the vote to receive the Republican nomination, while Democratic candidates Lupe Valdez and Andrew White advanced to a May 22 runoff.Svitek, Patrick. "Valdez, White headed to runoff in Democratic gubernatorial primary." Texas Tribune. Mar. 6, 2018. Valdez defeated White in the runoff with 53.1% of the vote and faced Abbott in the general election as the Democratic nominee.
Valdez's nomination made her the first openly gay person nominated for governor by a major party in the state.
Tippetts was nominated at the Libertarian Party of Texas' state convention in Houston April 13–15, 2018. He defeated three challengers, as well as the None Of The Above option, on the first ballot and received more than 70% approval from Libertarian party delegates.
Despite considerably closer contests in other Texas state elections, Abbott handily won a second term with the highest margin of victory of any state executive official on the ballot, although Valdez also won the largest vote share for a Democratic gubernatorial candidate since Ann Richards in 1994. Tippetts' showing exceeded the previous record for most votes for a Libertarian nominee for Texas governor; that record had been set in 1990.
The election also took place alongside a closer, higher-profile Senate race between Beto O'Rourke and Ted Cruz, which may have played a factor in making the Democratic gubernatorial candidate considerably more competitive than in 2014. Abbott won a majority among white voters (72% to 26%), while Valdez won majorities among African Americans (80% to 16%) and Latinos (63% to 35%).
Republican primary Candidates Nominated Greg Abbott, incumbent governor and former Texas attorney general
Eliminated in primary Larry Kilgore, secession activist Barbara Krueger, retired teacher
Declined Dan Patrick, lieutenant governor of Texas (running for re-election) Joe Straus, speaker of the Texas House of Representatives
Endorsements
Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error GregAbbott BarbaraKrueger Other UndecidedDixie StrategiesDixie Strategies February 22–23, 2018 – ± 4.7% 84% 2% 1%Larry Kilgore 1% 13%University of TexasUniversity of Texas February 1–12, 2018 612 ± 5.3% 95% 5% 0%Larry Kilgore 0% –
Results
Democratic primary
Candidates Nominated Lupe Valdez, former Dallas County sheriff
Eliminated in primary James Jolly Clark, businessman Cedric Davis, former mayor of Balch Springs Joe Mumbach, businessman Adrian Ocegueda, financial analyst Jeffrey Payne, businessman and 2009 International Mr. Leather Demetria Smith, mortgage broker Tom Wakely, hospice chaplain and nominee for TX-21 in 2016 Andrew White, entrepreneur and son of Governor Mark White Grady Yarbrough, retired educator
Withdrew Garry Brown, candidate for Travis County Commission in 2014 Lee Weaver
Declined Rafael Anchia, state representative Dwight Boykins, Houston city councilman Joaquín Castro, U.S. representative Julian Castro, former United States Secretary of Housing and Urban Development and mayor of San Antonio Mike Collier, businessman and nominee for comptroller in 2014 (running for lieutenant governor) Wendy Davis, former state senator and nominee in 2014 Pete Gallego, former U.S. representative Eva Longoria, actress and political activist Jack Martin, CEO of Hill+Knowlton Strategies Trey Martinez Fischer, former state representative William McRaven, chancellor of the University of Texas System, retired Navy admiral and former commander of the United States Special Operations Command Michael Sorrell, president of Paul Quinn College Allen Vaught, former state representative
Endorsements
First round Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error AdrianOcegueda JeffreyPayne LupeValdez TomWakely AndrewWhite GradyYarbrough Other UndecidedDixie Strategies February 22–23, 2018 – ± 5.7% 6% 1% 12% 2% 17% 1% 6%James Clark 4%, Cedric Davis 2%, Joe Mumbach 0% 54%University of Texas February 1–12, 2018 453 ± 7.4% 5% 5% 43% 7% 24% 7% 8%Cedric Davis 4%, Joe Mumbach 3%, James Clark 1% –
Results
Runoff
Lupe Valdez and Andrew White proceeded to a runoff on May 22 since neither received 50% of the vote in the first round of the primary. Lupe Valdez won the runoff.
Results
Libertarian nomination Candidates Nominated Mark Tippetts, former Lago Vista city councilman
Defeated at convention Kathie Glass, attorney and previous nominee Patrick Smith Kory Watkins, activist
General election Debates Complete video of debate, September 28, 2018
Endorsements
Predictions SourceRankingAs ofThe Cook Political Report October 26, 2018The Washington Post November 5, 2018FiveThirtyEight November 5, 2018Rothenberg Political Report November 1, 2018Sabato's Crystal Ball November 5, 2018RealClearPolitics November 4, 2018Daily Kos November 5, 2018Fox News November 5, 2018Politico November 5, 2018Governing November 5, 2018
Polling
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error GregAbbott (R) LupeValdez (D) MarkTippetts (L) Other UndecidedEmerson CollegeEmerson College October 28–30, 2018 781 ± 3.7% 51% 43% 2% – 4%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University October 22–28, 2018 1,078 ± 3.5% 54% 40% – 1% 6%University of Texas TylerUniversity of Texas Tyler October 15–28, 2018 1,033 ± 3.0% 53% 32% – 5% 10%Dixie StrategiesDixie Strategies October 25–26, 2018 588 ± 4.0% 59% 33% – – 7%University of Texas/YouGovUniversity of Texas/YouGov October 15–21, 2018 927 ± 3.2% 56% 37% 3% 4% –IpsosIpsos October 12–18, 2018 1,298 ± 3.2% 53% 38% – 3% 6%CNN/SSRSCNN/SSRS October 9–13, 2018 716 LV ± 4.5% 57% 39% – 0% 3% 862 RV ± 4.1% 56% 38% – 0% 4%NYT Upshot/Siena CollegeNYT Upshot/Siena College October 8–11, 2018 800 ± 3.6% 57% 35% – – 8%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University October 3–9, 2018 730 ± 4.4% 58% 38% – 0% 4%Emerson CollegeEmerson College October 1–5, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 53% 33% – 3% 11%Epstein GroupEpstein Group September 15–24, 2018 1,200 ± 2.9% 58% 29% 3% – 10%Vox Populi Polling September 16–18, 2018 508 ± 4.4% 55% 45% – – –Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University September 11–17, 2018 807 ± 4.1% 58% 39% – 0% 3%IpsosIpsos September 6–14, 2018 992 ± 4.0% 50% 41% – 2% 6%Crosswind Media & Public RelationsCrosswind Media & Public Relations September 6–9, 2018 800 ± 4.0% 52% 39% – – –Dixie StrategiesDixie Strategies September 6–7, 2018 519 ± 4.3% 53% 34% 1% – 12%Emerson CollegeEmerson College August 22–25, 2018 550 ± 4.4% 48% 28% – 3% 20%Marist CollegeMarist College August 12–16, 2018 759 ± 3.8% 56% 37% – <1% 6%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University July 26–31, 2018 1,118 ± 3.5% 51% 38% – 1% 9%Texas LyceumTexas Lyceum July 9–26, 2018 441 LV ± 4.7% 47% 31% 1% – 22% 806 RV ± 3.5% 44% 25% 3% – 28%Gravis MarketingGravis Marketing July 3–7, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 51% 41% – – 8%University of Texas/YouGovUniversity of Texas/YouGov June 8–17, 2018 1,200 ± 2.8% 44% 32% 4% 4% 16%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University May 23–29, 2018 961 ± 3.8% 53% 34% – 1% 9%JMC Analytics (R-Red Metrics Group)JMC Analytics (R-Red Metrics Group) May 19–21, 2018 575 ± 4.1% 48% 36% – – 16%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University April 12–17, 2018 1,029 ± 3.6% 49% 40% – 0% 9%
with Andrew White Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error GregAbbott (R) AndrewWhite (D) Other UndecidedJMC Analytics (R-Red Metrics Group) May 19–21, 2018 575 ± 4.1% 50% 39% – 10%Quinnipiac University April 12–17, 2018 1,029 ± 3.6% 48% 41% 0% 9%
with Julian Castro Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error GregAbbott (R) JulianCastro (D) Other UndecidedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling August 12–14, 2016 944 ± 3.2% 57% 28% – 15%
with Wendy Davis Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error GregAbbott (R) WendyDavis (D) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling August 12–14, 2016 944 ± 3.2% 57% 32% – 11%
Results
By county